I think it's time to start a new thread...
I really don't think Jeb Bush will have a shot. George "dubbleya" Bush is still too much of a hated figure among the democrats and, lets face it, a fair chunk of the middle ground and the more liberterian streak of the Republicans. I am sure advertisers are already working on the "want more Bush?" slogans.
The mathematics of politics is that elections are won by who turns out to vote. If you put forward a candidate that the other side detests, the other side will win because their supporters will run to the polling booth desperate to make sure anyone, whoever they are, gets into power instead. Putting fear into the hearts of the other side is just as deadly as failing to get your supporters cheering you on.
I always think US politicians and political strategists, particular on the Republican side after the last few elections, need to take a look at the 1992 UK general election. The Labour Party had to win. Thatcher was gone, the conservative party was divided, 13 years of Conservative rule and it was Labour's time to come again. Public opinion was firmly behind them. The Labour Leader introduced himself as "the next prime Minister."
Polling day arrived. In no election, before or since, has any Party received more voters by numerical total. The winners had a 7 point lead over the second party. Driven by the bragging and celebrations of the Labour Party, driven by that fear, Tory voters came out in their millions, and handed the Conservative party another 5 years of power.
I'm too involved with American politics and I don't really understand British political parties. I assume there are vast differences in platforms. That being said, Jeb Bush is not my first choice... niether was Mitt Romney. The problem lies in the reality. The candidate that commands the support of the donors will always have the advantage. Sure Scott Walker can make a case, but it will take much more than his popularity with the conservative base to pull big money into his camp. He kind of has the personality of a parking meter and that will affect his campaign. He will have to inspire independents to support him and that will be very tough for him.
You talk about the hatred the left has for George W. as the reason Jeb can't win, but you skip the issue of the hatred the right has for Hillary Clinton. Jeb was a very popular Governor of Florida and has not been involved in politics for 15 years. He does not have the Texas accent George has, and speaks fluent Spanish... his wife is Hispanic and he's very popular with Hispanic voters. Jeb is not George and the only kink he has is his last name and we will see if he can overcome that. I believe the Clinton name poses the same, and it will be a wash. He will be hammered on school choice and immigration... but Romney was hammered about Romneycare and still got the nomination. Jeb knows his path to win is in the Hispanic vote, just like his brother.
Hillary has bigger problems. She's up to her ears with everything that Obama has done. The anti-war left hates her for Iraq and Libya. The enviornmentalists will hate her for her coming position on the Keystone XL (she won't go against the unions), the progressives will have a problem with her because she's rich and a Wall Street junkie, and the black community will not come out for her like they did for Obama. The USA hates a coronation, and it's all Hillary. Being a woman is not a qualification... it's a coin toss of birth.
Edited by Lysistrata, 31 January 2015 - 05:44 PM.