Criswell Predicts

 

 

Greetings, my friend. We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.

 

And remember my friend, future events such as these will affect you in the future.

 

You are interested in the unknown, the mysterious, the unexplainable.

 

That is why you are here. And now, for the first time, we are bringing to you the full story of what happened on that fateful day.

 

We are giving you all the evidence, based only on the secret testimonies of the miserable souls who survived this terrifying ordeal.

 

The incidents, the places, my friend we cannot keep this a secret any longer. Let us punish the guilty, let us reward the innocent.

 

My friend, can your heart stand the shocking facts about

 

... 

 

GRAVE ROBBERS FROM OUTER SPACE

The one who moves his vote first will get shot first?

 

Spaztik I'm 60/40 on, but I'm doubting people will join the wagon on him. Night is coming fast. We must act fast.

 

Scum ISocialism Spaztik Preston Big Ego

 

 

Explain on this. So you are choosing to vote for spatzik now because Big Ego and Ovid has them in their scum list? Why so when you were actually voting for Ovid because presumably you think he is one of the scum.

 

 

Thinking on his vote shift, I find it a scummy move. If iSoc is scum and Ovid is not scum, he know with the current state of affairs Ovid will get lynched and he will the 5th vote on a townie wagon. That will put a spotlight on him in the next day. So he sees another wagon forming with not much chance of it being successful (it had only 2 votes then) and then switched his vote there. If Ovid turns up town he will look good because he was not on the wagon and had moved his vote from there. Of course he overlooked the part that he is increasing the chance of him being lynched as a result. If he is scum this is a gross miscalculation on his part.

 

Anyway, this switching of votes does not fit and is giving me a bad feeling so I look forward to an explanation from iSoc before the day ends.

So, my thoughts on a three way tie. 

 

Scum know who scum is. In this scenario, Scum is voting for a townie. It could be possible 1 out of the 3 is scum and scum are simply on the other two. it is also possible, but less likely all 3 wagons are on townies. everybody is divided. That and I think Lyner has bought his time and has a vote that could sway one person to be lynched of his choosing. If he is scum, he'll vote a townie if one of the 3 are scum. However, I would have to guess one of the 3 that are up for voting is a townie via odds. 

 

So I have to look at Lyner. His held his vote thus far. Do I trust him? No. Could he be town? Yes. But my eyes have fallen on him now since he's played into a deciding decision here.....

Unvote

 

I really want iSocialism to explain his reasoning for the vote switch before this day ends. Convince me otherwise or you are the one getting lynched.

 

 

I am keeping my vote where it is for the moment, but as I told Ovid earlier - if an argument is made that someone is a better scum guess than he, that is what will carry the day.

 

 

Nothing has been added to the volume of literature that was the initiation of my lynch vote.

 

This is what I see:

 

I find it entirely unfeasible to argue my defense. I cannot present an argument with me in mind, but I'll make a barter. Since it would be holistically biased of me to defend myself (something you noted earlier, which I will call here "deflection"), I instead proposed my "final will and testament" for several reasons:

1. to be practical with my time
2. to leave something useful once (if) I leave
3. to try to sway reason*

*The sway of reason works like a double edge sword, and I believe we all take this type of reasoning as given.

 

If I am a scum, and you back me into a wall, I have very little wiggle room (we follow the premise that the increase in character use, the higher your chances of getting in a bind). To make my best chances, I provide you with "a belief system" (basically every little detail about an opinion) and see how it fits with you. EVEN IF I AM SCUM, it would still behoove you to give great consideration to the list, because if the chances of finding a scum player have increased because another (scum) has thrown one under the bus...better one in the hand than two in the bush.

 

If I am not (read: NOT) scum, then my best chances are still to provide a belief system (for those who still don't get what this is, it's basically just walls of text). If what I say resonate as true, then people will act accordingly.

 

The same goes for you, Preston. It would be a logical fallacy to ascribe reason to a popularity contest, and cliques are very dangerous. Yet, gazing at our labors, where do our positions contradict? Why then are our efforts not in cooperation?

Here's my reasoning, my vote on Ovid wasn't fully because of scum factors. As I said before, it's a defense. I would rather have Ovid lynch then me, plan and simple.. no hard feelings. However, there's is a lot more reason to my switch of votes. First, there's been a few people that haven't given much reasoning to their votes for mine or Ovid wagons. With some saying they would prefer Spaztik over  the other two. I would also prefer Spaztik over the other two. Ovid voted for me, for his defense, and then later try to think of a reason why I was scum (in my opinion). He has given about the same input into both of us being scum. Would he switch he's vote to one FoS to the other is something I wanted to see. Along with seeing who else swung their votes where and when. I feel even though if my plan backfires and I am lynched. I believe every one would have more to go off on then if there were two wagons.

There' is more reasoning, some of which I wouldn't want to say because of my role, and some because I want to see what happens without giving clues which may alter what I want to see.

This began as a shorter post, and grew into something longer. The end of this day is certainly tense!

I feel like it's a Mexican stand-off.

A stand-off of your making, as I previously posted; and it appears as though Imran has blinked first - in the context of changing the status quo anyway. But he simply unvoted instead of voting for a separate wagon; thoughts on this?

  

@Robert: Given 12 people alive, the odds of none of the three wagons being scum are ~38% (9/12 * 8/11 * 7/10). The odds of at least one scum having a wagon on them are then ~62% - by sheer probability, and ignoring a LOT of other factors. TL;DR: we don't know how scum are distributed, though we must hope we can find one scum out of this mess. However your focus on Lyner agrees somewhat with my prior post: that Lyner and EM have somewhat been able to keep out of the spotlight while still voting - letting someone else end this standoff, to which they can say they only contributed. I'll be keeping an eye on them both I think.

 

The same goes for you, Preston. It would be a logical fallacy to ascribe reason to a popularity contest, and cliques are very dangerous. Yet, gazing at our labors, where do our positions contradict? Why then are our efforts not in cooperation?

When reason is absent, feelings prevail - even feelings with a semblance of reason. But philosophy aside, it is as I said before: if another candidate becomes the better best guess at finding scum, that is what will carry the day. You are correct that little new has been added to your docket; mostly your push against Big Ego and Spaztik. What is changing is the weight of what lies on iSocialism and Spaztik's end of the scales. It does not diminish the reasons for which you were accused (which were, again, behavioral - virtually everything today is) but the tides are turning. There is no malice; only trying to make the best of a low-information situation and the difficult decisions therein.

 

And on a side note, I've got to say your eloquent way of speaking is somewhat infectious I dont' always use such phrases in a response.

 

Here's my reasoning, my vote on Ovid wasn't fully because of scum factors. As I said before, it's a defense. I would rather have Ovid lynch then me, plan and simple.. no hard feelings. However, there's is a lot more reason to my switch of votes. First, there's been a few people that haven't given much reasoning to their votes for mine or Ovid wagons. With some saying they would prefer Spaztik over  the other two. I would also prefer Spaztik over the other two. Ovid voted for me, for his defense, and then later try to think of a reason why I was scum (in my opinion). He has given about the same input into both of us being scum. Would he switch he's vote to one FoS to the other is something I wanted to see. Along with seeing who else swung their votes where and when. I feel even though if my plan backfires and I am lynched. I believe every one would have more to go off on then if there were two wagons.

There' is more reasoning, some of which I wouldn't want to say because of my role, and some because I want to see what happens without giving clues which may alter what I want to see.

So if I read this correctly...

1. You gave up your defense vote buffer to try and create a third wagon and see if Ovid would switch his vote? It would have been easier to believe this if your vote on Spaztik had included more justification than just quoting Lyner's vote. It is easier to say anything now, and as a result it's a little harder to trust what rationales are provided.

2. You just mentioned 'because of my role' as part of your justification - implying that we cannot know the full extent of your reasoning without knowing your role. The obvious question you have raised is "How would your role affect your reasoning *during* the day?" Similar to Robert's situation, I don't tend to like roles being referred to as a defense or a justification unless you are prepared to follow through on it.

 

Trusting iSocialism's rationale seems to boil down to whether you believe his self-endangering vote switch was done to test whose vote would jump - especially Ovid's. At this point I am uncertain. However with Imran's vote no longer on Ovid, and my prior statement that I am suspicious of Robert and Spaztik who are the two remaining votes on Ovid alongside me - I am less comfortable with my own vote remaining there either. Given TBRaiders and Big Ego voting for iSocialism, along with Imran now potentially leaning in that direction, I am increasingly looking there as well - but I will make a final decision later tonight/tomorrow before deadline. I should hope that if my vote moves, I shall only need to do it once.

 

-Preston

Votecount 2.17

Big Ego (0) -
Electric Mango (0) -
Imran Ehsan (0) -
iSocialism (4) - TBRaiders, Ovidsidios, KevinH, Big Ego
KevinH (0) -
killgor (0) -
Lyner (0) -
Ovidsidios (3) - Spaztik Muffin, Robert2424, Preston
Preston (0) -
Robert2424 (0) -
Spaztik Muffin (4) - killgor, Lyner, iSocialism, Electric Mango
TBRaiders (0) -

Not Voting (1) - Imran Ehsan

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to reach majority and 4 to reach half-majority.
iSocialism and Spaztik Muffin are the current wagon leaders at L-3
Deadline is Monday, March 23rd, 2015 @ 19:20 EDT

23 Hours Left Before Deadline

 

 

However with Imran's vote no longer on Ovid, and my prior statement that I am suspicious of Robert and Spaztik who are the two remaining votes on Ovid alongside me - I am less comfortable with my own vote remaining there either.

 

 

 

 

The minute one of you jump ship, the others will wonder the risks of staying as well.

 

 

This is not so much for you, but when iSocialism called out claiming his vote switch for my predicted reasons.

 

It hurts me to know that I could switch votes to save a town, but I know, even if I had your permission, I must stick to my guns. I cannot vote on two scum. So I must vote on one, and diligently out speak the other. I hope the town will take solace in this reality:

 

 

 

 

Probably more like a prophet than a priest.

 

How about "Shepherd"? (Browncoat reference)

 

Hmm maybe. A shepherd always lead his sheep to the right way 

 

Even devils recognize the sovereign name of truth. I will lead may congregation to safe pastures, my flock to clean waters. I will lead you all the right way...

Here's how I feel, no matter how I categorized someone. It's a 50/50 chance that they're scum, and I rather lynch Spaztik who doesn't talk, then a scum that talks.

However I want to know what you see that makes iSocialism stand out in your eyes. As of my first post he seemed like he had at least support R2V, so I was less inclined to call him scum at the time; but steps since then are making me want more information. Whatever you can share, please do.

 

He doesn't stand out that much to me. Like I said I'm only 50/50 on him. He has seemed a little sly though, posting just enough, giving a little helpful info but not much, while jumping around some on wagons.. but several people fit this profile. Spaztik/Lyner have done the same but have been even less helpful. Sharing virtually no information or theories.

 

The reason I went with iSocialism over them is mainly because TBR seemed like a townie who had done his homework, and TBR voted iSocialism. That, and there was no one else higher on my list that had votes against them at the time.

 

After that no one voted for iSoc for a long time, so I thought the path was dead. So I did switch to Spaztik, but then finally another vote or two comes in for iSoc so I switch back, and then of course a bunch of people vote for Spaztik after I moved my vote off him. xD

 

So now I'm trying to decide between trusting the judgement of TBR & Kevin (Kevin is experienced so if he his townie, he thoughts should have a good deal of weight).. and trusting my own judgement.. though the people voting for Spaztik are killgor, Lyner, iSoc and EM, all somewhat suspicious people. So maybe I should stick with TBR/Kevin.. I dunno, it's a tough choice. I will check in through-out the day to see what other information I might get.

I'm sort of glad that Ovidsidios is no longer leading the lynch race because I enjoy his posts even if they may be coming from "a scum who talks."

 

I will leave my vote on iSocialism just to keep the tension and possibly get more information from the final votes.

Despite the wagon losing now. I'm most comfortable with an ovid lynch. He could turn up town still, but out of the 3 choices, I feel he would turn up scum the most. Spatik muffin should talk more though. I will say that. Isoc could go ether way. 

A lot of posts since I last checked.  I am sticking with my vote for iSo.  I think he is scum and nothing he has said has changed my mind.  The vote switch was very curious, but I saw it as a way to preserve himself if ovid was lynched and turned out being town.

 

 

There' is more reasoning, some of which I wouldn't want to say because of my role, and some because I want to see what happens without giving clues which may alter what I want to see.

 

Another strange statement.

 

So you have a role and presumably some results from last night which factored in your voting for Spaztik in place of Ovid? If so, why were you voting for Ovid in the first place if you have some info that he may be town or why did you not vote for spaztik is you have info he may be scum.

 

Half claims are scummy. Its just a way of saying "hey, dont lynch me, I have a PR!!". Its something scum would use to avoid being lynched.

 

There' is more reasoning, some of which I wouldn't want to say because of my role, and some because I want to see what happens without giving clues which may alter what I want to see.

Another strange statement.

 

So you have a role and presumably some results from last night which factored in your voting for Spaztik in place of Ovid? If so, why were you voting for Ovid in the first place if you have some info that he may be town or why did you not vote for spaztik is you have info he may be scum.

 

Half claims are scummy. Its just a way of saying "hey, dont lynch me, I have a PR!!". Its something scum would use to avoid being lynched.

 

never said I had info nor did a role-claim. So let me clearify, I don't want to mention somethings for my motives, because it might indicate to what my role is.

 

 

There' is more reasoning, some of which I wouldn't want to say because of my role, and some because I want to see what happens without giving clues which may alter what I want to see.

Another strange statement.

 

So you have a role and presumably some results from last night which factored in your voting for Spaztik in place of Ovid? If so, why were you voting for Ovid in the first place if you have some info that he may be town or why did you not vote for spaztik is you have info he may be scum.

 

Half claims are scummy. Its just a way of saying "hey, dont lynch me, I have a PR!!". Its something scum would use to avoid being lynched.

 

never said I had info nor did a role-claim. So let me clearify, I don't want to mention somethings for my motives, because it might indicate to what my role is.

 

Before you get lynched, tell us if it was Rafay or Samus you killed and why them.

Gregory Walcott passed away today. He played the part of Jeff Trent, a pilot from the movie Plan 9 Outer Space. Creepy.

 

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/gregory-walcott-dead-plan-9-from-outer-space-1201457738/

I will leave my vote until the end of the day because I want the option of lynching Spatzik to be open (a 5th vote on iSocialism now means spatzik will need 2 extra votes to lynch). Hence my Unvote earlier instead of changing votes.

 

Also for the record, i am not buying iSocialism's reasons:

 

1. His arguments seems to be a regurgitation of reasonings posted by others before him

     - talking scum is better than a non-talking scum (similar thought posted by Preston)

     - hopped wagon to see how others react (EM's mexican standoff situation to see who hops first)

     - spazik is not posting any justification to his votes compared to ovid (reason for current wagoners on spaztik)

 

2. Makes a vague claim about having a power role that will allow him to get info because he has switched his vote. Seems to me it was thrown in there just to convince others to not lynch him.

 

3. Not voting for spaztik in the first place but instead switching to him when Ovid lynch seemed assured (to get off a townie lynch wagon)

Votecount 2.18

Big Ego (0) -
Electric Mango (0) -
Imran Ehsan (0) -
iSocialism (4) - TBRaiders, Ovidsidios, KevinH, Big Ego
KevinH (0) -
killgor (0) -
Lyner (0) -
Ovidsidios (3) - Spaztik Muffin, Robert2424, Preston
Preston (0) -
Robert2424 (0) -
Spaztik Muffin (4) - killgor, Lyner, iSocialism, Electric Mango
TBRaiders (0) -

Not Voting (1) - Imran Ehsan

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to reach majority and 4 to reach half-majority.
iSocialism and Spaztik Muffin are the current wagon leaders at L-3
Deadline is Monday, March 23rd, 2015 @ 19:20 EDT

18 Hours Left Before Deadline

 

 

2. Makes a vague claim about having a power role that will allow him to get info because he has switched his vote. Seems to me it was thrown in there just to convince others to not lynch him.

You must not like to read and instead refer to make stuff up

prefer*

So let me expand, the way people react to the other wagon and the two current ones may change my mind on who to use my ability on.

 

There are multiple reasons why I change my vote.

 

I think there's a better chance Ovid will flip town over Spaztik

I wanted to see what other people would do.

May choice of how to use my ability might change based on people reactions.

 

So pretty much my "role-claim" was vague because I didn't want to speculate who I was, or what my abilities are. <---- so pretty much my role-claim is townie, like every one else. I guess you need to lynch them all, because of their vague-ness.

I held my vote. It seemed that Spaz fits the New Guy Theory and unfortunately he's not participating much.

 

He will be a plague later on in the game.

 

And nobody seemed interested in my crusade against Big Ego.

For a VERY short morning post (gotta run in like 5 minutes):

So let me expand, the way people react to the other wagon and the two current ones may change my mind on who to use my ability on.

 

There are multiple reasons why I change my vote.

 

I think there's a better chance Ovid will flip town over Spaztik

I wanted to see what other people would do.

May choice of how to use my ability might change based on people reactions.

 

So pretty much my "role-claim" was vague because I didn't want to speculate who I was, or what my abilities are. <---- so pretty much my role-claim is townie, like every one else. I guess you need to lynch them all, because of their vague-ness.

iSocialism - the default assumed of those who have not roleclaimed is vanilla townie. That role has no active or passive 'abilities', and in many senses is not considered a role (aka power role) at all. The moment someone refers to their role as actually influencing their actions, or refers to an 'ability' they have at ALL - even without further information - that is the start of a role claim. You have already taken this step, which sets you apart from all those who have not claimed.

 

Townies obviously do not want to lynch a power role - this is why many roleclaims come out when the person being lynched is on the defensive, as a "Don't kill me! I have a role that will help town!" measure. As one of the candidate lynch wagons, you are in that position. So your referring to a role NOW at the end of the day, as part of the justification trying to keep people from finishing you, is *extremely* suspect.

 

My input is thus: right now, having claimed your role like you did will do you more harm than good because noone will really believe it. The more vague you are right now, the less you will be trusted. If you want to keep the final votes from swinging your way, I suggest you become a lot less vague, FAST.

 

-Preston