Forest Fire is a 9-player Open Setup that won the Micro category in the 2015 Open Setup Design contest.

Setup

• 2 Arsonists
• 6 Tree
• 1 Firefighter

Notes

• Arsonists have a single factional night action. They may choose to prime a single target, or to ignite all previously primed targets.
• Firefighter blocks the priming of a target ONLY on the night in which they are being primed.
• Trees become Tree-stumps upon being lynched, allowing them to continue posting in the thread.
• Firefighter, Trees, Tree-stumps, and Arsonists are all vulnerable to being primed and ignited.
• Players are not told when they are primed, Arsonists are not told if the priming was successful.
• Tree-stumps cannot vote, and do not count as a vote for endgame purposes.

Alive:

Electric Mango, Arsonist

 Dead:

Road2Victory, Tree
Duderonomy, Tree 
Lyner, Arsonist
iSocialism, Tree
Commander Shepard Firefighter 
Duke Nukem Pretzimus the Great, Tree 
Rafay, Tree 
Robert2424, Tree

 
The Rules

• The game is comprised of Arsonists and the Forest (Trees and Firefighter).
• The game is won when only one faction remains in the game, or nothing can prevent the same.
• During the Day phase, each player may speak and vote inthread.
• If a player receives the majority of the available votes during the Day, they are lynched.
• At deadline, a player with half-majority will be lynched.
• You may vote No Lynch.
• After the Day, the game goes to Night.
• The game thread is closed during the Night. The Arsonists may speak to each other at Night. All Active Roles may submit actions via PM at Night.
• The Arsonists can, as a faction, prime or ignite at Night.
• After the Night, the game goes to Day.
• Basic rules for maintaining the integrity of the game thread are in effect (i.e. players may not quote their Role PMs, nor may they discuss the game outside the game thread unless otherwise permitted, etc.)
• Mass role-claiming is allowed. (Good luck with that!)

Game Days will last as many real-life days as there are players alive.
Game Nights will last 48 hours but will include at least one weekday.
 
Addendum to rules: "If a day reaches the deadline without a lynch, the player with the most votes over a half-majority will be lynched. In the event of a tie, the first player to the most votes will be lynched."

According to most experienced mafia players it is in the towns best interest to lynch daily.

In this game it probably is in our interest to lynch daily, the bad guys can only be killed via lynches so we better hope we lynch one of them ASAP.

However that's not very effective if we don't have a good analysis of the remaining players to determine who most likely to be scum based on many factors which Duderonomy went through. 

If we can get some meaning out of the data then perhaps we can get a good lynch target rather than a random target like last time. 

Vote Count:

Duderonomy (0):
Lyner (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Electric Mango (0):
Commander Shepard (0):
Rafay (0):
Duke Nukem (0)
iSocialism (0)
No lynch (1): Duderonomy

 
Not voting: Commander Shepard, Lyner, Rafay, Electric Mango, iSocialism, Duke Nukem, Robert2424
 
Tree Stump:

Road2Victory

 
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00 EDT Wednesday, October 7.

Yeah I actually play a crucial role in this now that I am revealed that I am innocent. I have feeling the last vote who chopped my trunk was Lyner seems suspicious to me. He did it at the last minute,.

 

 

Outside the circle

Electric Mango, Lyner, Duke Nukem

 

Me is sad

 

 

 

The sudden change in effort and view is interesting, feels like a different person than yesterday

 

It's an interesting read and all, but I disagree on the vital points:

 

Advocating no-lynch when there is no detection role from the town side, and there is an advantage of tree-stumps? Only scum would try to actively do that.

 

Another faulty point is the illusion that the more rounds we have then the more chance of town winning. With less trees, the chance of us getting a scum is getting higher too. We get more useful data if we lynch everyday instead of the random data we received if a no lynch happened.

 

I had zero info on the first round, not even prior games to refer back to. My goal as a tree (of course everyone is a "tree" at this point) was to flush out arsonists without harming my side too much. Voting in that round was about vote-baiting arsonists. I thought R2V's behavior fit an arsonist, I was wrong. I'll use that info in later games.

 

More info is better than less. More rounds yield more info through posts. More posts give better patterns. And this post of yours makes me more suspicious. That's also why I agree with Electric Mango that shorter and less informative posts arouse suspicion, because it could be someone afraid to tip their hands. Speculation is half the fun, and only the arsonists lose by speculation.

 

More info is generated through posts and voting patterns. No lynching gives far less info, which is evidenced by your own reasoning(which I too disagree with) that the third/lynching vote is the most suspicious. The consensus here is that first day lynching is more beneficial than not lynching, even more so now that the penalty of lynching the wrong person is minimal(through tree stumps).

 

My goal as a tree (of course everyone is a "tree" at this point) was to flush out arsonists without harming my side too much. Voting in that round was about vote-baiting arsonists.

 

This here is more or less what everyone had in mind when they vote to lynch on first day.

 

That said, it is true that this is your first game here so not much past info can be used, but if you still persistently try to defend your view while providing no convincing proposal, I can only see you as the arsonist who try to confuse town.

 

Vote: Duderonomy

 

Possible partners: Rafay, EM, and Robert(haven't voiced opinion for today tho)

 

I have a good feeling about iSoc and CS for now.

 

 

Yeah

I actually play a crucial role in this now that I am revealed that I am innocent. I have feeling the last vote who chopped my trunk was Lyner seems suspicious to me. He did it at the last minute,.

 

If by 'last minute' you meant the 3 days in which I hoped you made any posts so we can have more info, then we have been playing this game at a very quick pace.

 

In the meantime, Duderonomy was next in the chopping block by EM's third vote, if I changed my vote.

 

That means even if I did change my vote, the scums would still try to bad mouth me the next day by saying that I ditched the wagon at the 'last minute'.

 

 

Lyner, on 30 Sept 2015 - 09:30, said:

I respectfully disagree. When we lynch everyday, the usual targets are those who are too inactive but they end up being town anyway and it provides no info whatsoever and the town ends up losing.

 

We should avoid voting the inactives and focus on the active ones for now. Also:

 

If we voted no-lynch in the usual game, scum would kill someone every night, and in the next day, the chance of town getting a scum is higher.

 

This time however, if we voted no-lynch then we theoretically killed one guy every night, while in the next day, the chance of town getting a scum is still the same as the previous day.

 

I feel like a broken record but this tree stump stuff is pretty amazing for town.

 

                   

 

 

However that's not very effective if we don't have a good analysis of the remaining players to determine who most likely to be scum based on many factors which Duderonomy went through. 

 

Exactly. 

I laid out the chances in one of my prior posts, Lyner. Did a decision matrix and everything. If you can't address raw numbers and probability except through wild accusation, I think you're definitely arsonist at this point.

 

It's important to note that the rules state mafia can only prime one target together. Killing one mafia without killing the other is not super advantageous for town. We've got to flush out both. Voting will become more advantageous in the next round, when we're just as likely to hit a primed tree or arsonist as a non-primed tree. Lynching primed trees doesn't hurt town.

 

Lynching one mafia does help by removing their vote, but it's better to see who they ally with and who they vote for. When you're certain and nail one mafia, then you can look at their history to flush out the other one.

 

To make things more clear

 

Round 2 Voting Decision Matrix
                                                       Mafia                     Primed                   Not Primed
Proposed Lynch (trees killed)             1                             1                              2        
Chance                                              2/8                         1/8                            5/8

 

5/8 lynching choices are bad for trees.

 

Round 3 Voting Decision Matrix
                                                       Mafia                     Primed                   Not Primed
Proposed Lynch (trees killed)             1                             1                              2        
Chance                                              2/8                         2/8                            4/8

 

4/8 lynching choices are neutral or good for trees. That's a 50-50 shot, that can increase if you have better analysis on who is an arsonist.

 

Don't forget that there's also a firefighter running around out there. If he/she can block even one priming, it vastly improves the tree's chances and will throw a major wrench into the arsonists plans, since they never know if a priming is blocked and the act of ignition can decrease their kill count to 0 for that round.

And I had found it quite unconvincing. Also I addressed my 'wild accusations' in the reply to Rafay:

 

Assuming the worst case, that is firefighter missing everyday and scum targeting perfectly everyday without igniting once in a while.

 

Town's chance to kill a scum using the no-lynch strategy:

Day one: 2/9

Day two: 2/9

Day three and on: 2/9

 

Town's chance to kill a scum if we scumhunt everyday:

Day one: 2/9

Day two: 2/8

Day three: 3/8

Day four: 4/8

 

Town's life using the no-lynch strategy:

Day one: 9 people left

Day two: 9 people left, 1 primed

Day three: 9 people left, 2 primed

Day four: 9 people left, 3 primed

Day five: 9 people left, 4 primed

Day six: 9 people left, 5 primed, scum ignite

Day seven: 4 people left, 2 of which are scum, scum wins

 

Town's life using the scumhunt everyday strategy:

Day one: 9 people left

Day two: 8 people left, 1 primed

Day three: 7 people left, 2 primed

Day four: 6 people left, 2 primed, scum ignite

Day five: 4 people left, 2 of which are scum, scum wins

 

Correct me if the math doesn't check out. Mind you the above scenario is if the mafia played perfectly, as in primed succesfully every night and succesfully lynced a non primed town.

 

Now as you can see the difference here is a mere two days minus the voting patterns we would receive if we went stabbing each other. Mere posting comments and opinions are unreliable data, compared to voting patterns. It'd be like repeating the first day over and over again.

 

Another bonus is that the threat of getting voted on will make the scum went on the active instead of passively fading into the crowd(I am watching you, inactive bois).Therefore making them more susceptible of making the wrong moves.

 

Conclusion? Scumhunting everyday does everything that no-lynching does except that it generates more quality data, more chance to get scum, and lower the town's life by two days. No lynching is not safer, it's just slower.

A typo in the town scumhunt chance:

Day one: 2/9

Day two: 2/8

Day three: 3/7

Day four: 4/6

 

This assuming we mislynched everyday, by day three we have roughly 43% chance to get a scum

Better to find who the mafia/arsonists are rather randomly kill people. I think the hardest position is the firefighter honestly cuz he needs to be aware of this chat. 

 

Question to Mod: Are you allowed to reveal yourself in the game or is it only when you are killed you are revealed who you are?

[more edit, I think I'm tired]

 

the numbers are mistaken, it should be:
 

Town's chance to kill a scum if we scumhunt everyday:

Day one: 2/9

Day two: 2/8

Day three: 2/7

Day four: 2/6

Lyner, I appreciate the hard numbers and I'll look over them more carefully later in the day, but they stand up to initial scrutiny (or at least the edits do). What they fail to take into full account are the impact of the primed trees. Lynching a primed tree is neutral for both sides and changes it from a "when do votes do the most harm" scenario to a "when do votes do the least harm" scenario. When odds get to 1:1, it's much more advantageous to act with the information we have up to that point. Also, I'm assuming that ties go to mafia, unless remainder is fireman (unlikely).

 

Odds of a vote being neutral or better for trees (aka primed or mafia)

Day 1: 2/9 vote baiting for info

Day 2: 3/9

Day 3: 4/9

Day 4: 5/9 with 4 non-primed trees left, best time to vote

 

 

Unfortunately, we now live in another scenario:

Day 1: 2/9 lynch

Day 2: 3/8

Day 3: 4/8 with 4 non-primed trees left, best time to vote

 

If we hit mafia on Day 3 which seems likely to me at this point, we'll get this

Day 4: 4/7 with 3 non-primed trees and 1 mafia left, vote

Day 5: 5/6 with 2 non-primed trees and 1 mafia left, vote (this is based on the most likely scenario)

Day 6: 4/5 with 1 non-primed tree and 1 mafia left, vote

Day 7: Ignition, mafia wins

 

Hitting a primed tree won't be reported, so I can't really model it properly. If we hit a non-primed tree on Day 3, we accelerate the timeline by one day.

 

So I'm not advocating a completely no-lynch strategy. I'm advocating an optimum-lynch strategy when we have the most info.

All of that said on Day 4, I'm probably the best candidate for lynching, if I'm the greatest threat to the mafia, because I'm the most likely to have been primed and thus not hurt the trees.

Vote Count:

Duderonomy (1): Lyner
Lyner (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Electric Mango (0):
Commander Shepard (0):
Rafay (0):
Duke Nukem (0)
iSocialism (0)
No lynch (1): Duderonomy

 
Not voting: Commander Shepard, Rafay, Electric Mango, iSocialism, Duke Nukem, Robert2424
 
Tree Stump:

Road2Victory

 
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00 EDT Wednesday, October 7.

 

Question to Mod: Are you allowed to reveal yourself in the game or is it only when you are killed you are revealed who you are?

 

Yes, you are allowed to role-claim. I'll be surprised if anyone says anything other than "Tree".

I forgot this game exsisted. My bad.

 

Honestly. It's a double sword lynching and not lynching. Town isn't down a voice but a vote. At the same time no lynching gives us nothing to go cause its just trees and 2 arsonists(witch some people believe are mafia?). No informative roles.

 

So first thing first.

 

@kevin. Are the arsonists on a team or are they nomal arsonists. Traditionally and normally they are evil 3rd party roles. Only can win bythemself. It's driving me nuts when people refure to them on a team.

 

Second. There was little point in lynching r2v day one. Only we know he is town but cannot vote. A target that either of the two arsonists have to deal with. Duderronomy has a small good point. Those apart of the lynch would be more suspect to being an arsonist. With 3rd party arsonists running around the hold the advantage of not worrying about there partner. Therefore, more likely to be apart of a day one lynch. So, in turn we can only use the lynch to our advantage by listing and qouting the votes themselves. The more disinserted/short/thought out votes I would say are more likely one of our arsonists. Unless they are heavily experienced.

@kevin. Are the arsonists on a team or are they nomal arsonists. Traditionally and normally they are evil 3rd party roles. Only can win bythemself. It's driving me nuts when people refure to them on a team.

 

 

 

• Arsonists have a single factional night action. They may choose to prime a single target, or to ignite all previously primed targets.

...

• The game is comprised of Arsonists and the Forest (Trees and Firefighter).
• The game is won when only one faction remains in the game, or nothing can prevent the same.
• The Arsonists may speak to each other at Night.
• The Arsonists can, as a faction, prime or ignite at Night.

 

 

The arsonists are a team.

Yeah, the only role-claim that would ruin the game is the arsonists outing themselves. It's in everyone's interests to claim tree, especially the fireman who is a huge target for the arsonists.

 

Even if an arsonist outs himself, the game is still going so long as the other arsonist is hidden.

 

So who wants to ogle some trunks? Check out that rytidome. Yowser

http://media.mnn.com/assets/images/2012/01/paperbark_maple.jpg.638x0_q80_crop-smart.jpg

Hmmmm this seems pretty interesting. I just want to hear what the others have to say before the night comes in and the arsonists go wild again.

:/ great. They are a team.

Lyner, I appreciate the hard numbers and I'll look over them more carefully later in the day, but they stand up to initial scrutiny (or at least the edits do). What they fail to take into full account are the impact of the primed trees. Lynching a primed tree is neutral for both sides and changes it from a "when do votes do the most harm" scenario to a "when do votes do the least harm" scenario. When odds get to 1:1, it's much more advantageous to act with the information we have up to that point. Also, I'm assuming that ties go to mafia, unless remainder is fireman (unlikely).

 

Odds of a vote being neutral or better for trees (aka primed or mafia)

Day 1: 2/9 vote baiting for info

Day 2: 3/9

Day 3: 4/9

Day 4: 5/9 with 4 non-primed trees left, best time to vote

 

 

Unfortunately, we now live in another scenario:

Day 1: 2/9 lynch

Day 2: 3/8

Day 3: 4/8 with 4 non-primed trees left, best time to vote

 

If we hit mafia on Day 3 which seems likely to me at this point, we'll get this

Day 4: 4/7 with 3 non-primed trees and 1 mafia left, vote

Day 5: 5/6 with 2 non-primed trees and 1 mafia left, vote (this is based on the most likely scenario)

Day 6: 4/5 with 1 non-primed tree and 1 mafia left, vote

Day 7: Ignition, mafia wins

 

Hitting a primed tree won't be reported, so I can't really model it properly. If we hit a non-primed tree on Day 3, we accelerate the timeline by one day.

 

So I'm not advocating a completely no-lynch strategy. I'm advocating an optimum-lynch strategy when we have the most info.

All of that said on Day 4, I'm probably the best candidate for lynching, if I'm the greatest threat to the mafia, because I'm the most likely to have been primed and thus not hurt the trees.

 

Well now that is a fair point.

 

The only minor complain I have left is that I believe voting with the intention to kill will yield more info for town.

 

 

Unvote for now

Vote Count:

Duderonomy (0):
Lyner (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Electric Mango (0):
Commander Shepard (0):
Rafay (0):
Duke Nukem (0)
iSocialism (0)
No lynch (1): Duderonomy

 
Not voting: Commander Shepard, Rafay, Electric Mango, iSocialism, Duke Nukem, Robert2424, Lyner
 
Tree Stump:

Road2Victory

 
With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00 EDT Wednesday, October 7.
 

We lost like a day or two days. Probably doesn't matter.

What does everyone want to do?

Wait for the arsonists to set on fire on a target and not vote

well we can only get one arsonists at a time, via lynch. If I was one of them, I would prime most of the targets, until my buddy was lynch, or until I got 3-4 targets primed. Eliminating(set ablaze) trees would make it more of a chance for them to be gotten.  

as of right now.. we have a 2/8 of getting one. if we failed day3 would be a 2/7 unless they ignite their one target tonight making it a 2/6 chance to get one of them.

 

Lynching benefits the town not too much the mafia. So people moving/leaning towards more of a no-lynch type scenario are higher on my list.

Im still here. My last week has been super busy and tomorrow is not looking good either. I haven't read everything yet but I will say that I really appreciate all of the stats and number crunching of duder. He leads everyone in townie points.

 

I don't have any good scum picks at the moment although I am generally more suspicious of those that voted for someone who did not get lynched. The reasoning is that they would distance themselves and let the townies do their dirty work for them.

 

On the opposite end I do give town points to those that have the stones to put that lynch vote down on someone.

Well. Since they are a team, I'd imagine at least one of the people who lynched is scum.

 

@R2V, is there anybody you think may be scum?

I have to say Lyner because the reason he voted for me was a curiosity and I think scum would always be the last one to vote for other people. The importance for me is for us the trees to win and arsonists seem to not have to be active or is secretly active.

 

In my list I am pretty sure Robert and Duderonomy are not arsonists if they were they would have killed some one anyways. So they are out of my radar.  The others are not so sure about because I haven't seen their activeness on here.

 

I am doing this for the trees.

 

"I speak for the trees"- Lorax