120 replies to this topic

[The Warrior]

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, the cop certainly has a much better chance than 1/7 of investigating scum in scenario 2. The cop won't investigate himself so that already makes the odds 1 in 6 and there are two scum so that makes the actual odds 2 in 6 (33%) of the cop investigating a scum.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Lyner (1): King Hitler,
Supreme Leader MK (1): Lyner,
The Warrior (1): Supreme Leader MK,
King Hitler (0):
Canik (0):
Mandarijn (0)
Robert2424 (0)

No Lynch (1):

 

Not voting: Mandarijn, Canik, Robert2424, The Warrior

 
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is noon EST on Monday, September 5, 2016

The mafia roleblocker can do his own action (roleblock) and deliver the factional kill during the same night.

"Either way, unvote until I can figure out the best candidate for the lynch" - I didn't count this statement as a change in vote. Please make it obvious.


 

[Canik]

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, the cop certainly has a much better chance than 1/7 of investigating scum in scenario 2. The cop won't investigate himself so that already makes the odds 1 in 6 and there are two scum so that makes the actual odds 2 in 6 (33%) of the cop investigating a scum.

That's right, my mistake. So that's 5/2 & 4/2 vs 5/2 & 6/2. Scenario 1 (the one where we do mass roleclaim) still wins.

[Canik]

Actually scenario 1 wins by more of a landslide than it looks like, because the 5/2 & 4/2 are both chances to find AND lynch scum as they take place on 2 different days. The 5/2 & 6/2 take place on the same day giving two chances to find scum but only 1 lynch.

But there are some variables I'm guesstimating on. Like if we don't mass roleclaim (scenario 2) and doctor does make it to D3 undercover how much will that help exactly? I don't thinks these variables will be enough to change the final outcome but if someone wants to do the math on it, it sure wouldn't hurt.

[Robert2424]

There are pros and cons each way. If we end up lynching a power role we seriously be f'd. Will post more when I get home.

[SeaBeeGipson]

So if the roleblocker can deliver the kill and block a power, that would mean if the cop and doctor come out before we kill the roleblocker, he could block the doctor and kill the cop? Or vice versa? Am I understanding that right?

Also I'd cast myour vote towards Scen 1 here

[Mandarijn]

SLMK is the most suspicious person at this moment, with his scum vibe, town list and votes. Of course we also have to take into account that this could just be because it's his 1st game. So I'm not 100% convinced yet. But I'm also going to put my vote on the record:

 

Vote: SLMK

 

My random guess at this point would be that scum can be found between these 3: KH, Robert and SLMK

 

About the scenario's: I don't know what's best, but in the end it comes down to our discussion and accusations. So I think we don't need to put to much time in discussing what's the best scenario, but just continue our discussion.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Supreme Leader MK (2): Lyner, Mandarijn,
Lyner (1): King Hitler,
The Warrior (1): Supreme Leader MK,
King Hitler (0):
Canik (0):
Mandarijn (0)
Robert2424 (0)

No Lynch (0):

 

Not voting: Canik, Robert2424, The Warrior

 
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is noon EST on Monday, September 5, 2016

[Lord MK]

Robert is suspicious.because he keeps on voting down scenarios. Which may lead to town win.
Lyner too.he also don't post much.

From TW's words,he is likely town.

KH is unpredictable atm.

Mandy is likely a PR,but can also be role Blocker,anyways not a normal role.

Unvote TW

Vote Lyner

[Lyner]

I agree with Manda, there is no need to over analyze this setup and let's start the stabbings.

 

I had stated my intent on voting MK on my second post. While my very first intent is just a joke vote I'm now fully intent to put MK on the scum list.

 

His first vote for me--I'm not sure if it was a serious vote or not, since his first reason is a joke and his second one is actually pretty good. Despite that, he quickly changed his vote when called out by Mand. Oh and for the finishing touch he actually still suspect me here, stating once again that my posts are scummish, while not giving any reason for voting TW other than "TW stated that Canik is scum but hasn't voted for him".

 

I might give him benefit of the doubt since this is his first game, let's see if there is any scum who's bold enough to make a move now.

 

 

So if the roleblocker can deliver the kill and block a power, that would mean if the cop and doctor come out before we kill the roleblocker, he could block the doctor and kill the cop? Or vice versa? Am I understanding that right?

Correct.

Woot MK posted while I was writing

 

Doesn't matter though, let's see everyone's opinion

[The Warrior]

SLMK is the most suspicious person at this moment, with his scum vibe, town list and votes. Of course we also have to take into account that this could just be because it's his 1st game. So I'm not 100% convinced yet. But I'm also going to put my vote on the record:

 

Vote: SLMK

 

My random guess at this point would be that scum can be found between these 3: KH, Robert and SLMK

 

About the scenario's: I don't know what's best, but in the end it comes down to our discussion and accusations. So I think we don't need to put to much time in discussing what's the best scenario, but just continue our discussion.

Mandarijn lists my thoughts thus far pretty nicely here.

 

SLMK is at the top of my suspect list right now as well:

-He started by voting no lynch instantly.

-Voted for Lyner in what appeared to be a joking manner but has maintained his "suspicion" of him throughout the first couple days which leads me to believe that it was more than a joke vote and could be hopefully trying to get Lyner lynched based on previous game roles.

-He voted for me for what was pretty obviously sarcasm.

-Includes two people on a town list very early on after both only making one post.

 

I am not ready to vote for him yet because these could simply be rookie mistakes but they are worth noting nonetheless.

 

If SLMK is scum and these were noob mistakes, it could stand to reason then that he might have included his scum partner on his "town list" right off the bat as well. This would highlight both King Hitler and Mandarijn. Of course both KH and Mandarijn couldn't be scum if SLMK is as well since there are only two scum. If I had to guess right now I would say that KH would be more likely than Mandarijn since I am leaning towards town on Mandarijn and KH was included on the list with no reason given.

 

For now: FOS SLMK

[Lord MK]

OK,the vote on TW was a joke vote.

And Mandy on town list was because of manner of words chosen.
KH,though seems to be changing from town to scum and back.I am not sure on him anymore.

I am currently sticking with lyner.

Let's see where that gets us.

And I am not entirely a rookie.
I mean I played before.long back.
And so I don't make noob mistakes.
Suppose I am scum,then I wouldn't include fellow mafia in Town list.
Because
1)it is stupid obvious.
2)it will redirect attention towards people on that list after I am gone.
And will get them lynched.
3)so I am more likely to include townies on my list so as to eliminate them.
But this is considering I am mafia,which I obviously am not.
Though I am not able to convince some except the mafia of course.

Consider this,all other players have spoken about me being scum,but isn't it wrong cause someone else should also be the scum.So if you consider it,I am not a scum as you claim.

And I have a request, please don't lynch me today,wait for night and investigate me,whoever the city cop is.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Supreme Leader MK (2): Lyner, Mandarijn,
Lyner (2): King Hitler, Supreme Leader MK,
The Warrior (0):
King Hitler (0):
Canik (0):
Mandarijn (0)
Robert2424 (0)

No Lynch (0):

 

Not voting: Canik, Robert2424, The Warrior

 
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is noon EST on Monday, September 5, 2016

[Robert2424]

Robert is suspicious.because he keeps on voting down scenarios. Which may lead to town win.

 I haven't voted for or against anything yet. You assume much about be. 

Mandy is likely a PR,but can also be role Blocker,anyways not a normal role.

Why is he suddenly a Power Role? 

I am not entirely a rookie.

Here I was chucking most of scummyness to how inexperienced I thought you were. Everybody makes mistakes SLMK, we are all human. 

Posting after the fact edit. be is suppose to *me* Dang auto correct. 

[SeaBeeGipson]

Unvote.
Vote SLMK.

Like I stated, with a game this small. I think we definitely risk too much by waiting to lynch. SLMK, honestly, doesn't come off too much as a scum to me but he doesn't give many town vibes either. I do feel concerned about trying to point out Mandy as a PR. Was this an attempt to make him slip up and admit it?

What can we gain from this lynch? Obviously a wagon has already started. After my vote, someone will need to be the hammer. If MK is town, we can rest assured that the 2 scum are on the wagon. It's too small of a game to convince 4 towns to vote off the 5th townie.

If MK is scum, we can be pretty assured Mandy is town by him trying to poke at him about a PR, and Lyner would more than likely be Town trying to get a quick wagon on him. I don't believe the scum have day talk unless I misread the roles, so that couldn't have been something planned.

Anyway, I'll just sit back and wait for any responses. At this point, we can wait for the hammer vote or we can try to discuss any further possibilities for the day.

[Lyner]

I noticed another thing that scum might do tomorrow

 

Supposing we mislynch a VT today, and scum get a VT tonight, tomorrow one of them WILL roleclaim as cop as fast as they can to frame an innocent townie to decrease the actual cop's credibility and to secure another kill, thus winning the game on night 2.

 

Therefore we couldn't really rely on PRs this time around unless we got lucky and hit a scum today.

[Mandarijn]

Unvote: SLMK (as I don't want to see the day end so early)

 

I have no idea how he can tell that I have a PR or not. He's just talking a lot and putting up random things that he can't possibly know.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Supreme Leader MK (2): Lyner, King Hitler,
Lyner (1): Supreme Leader MK,
The Warrior (0):
King Hitler (0):
Canik (0):
Mandarijn (0)
Robert2424 (0)

No Lynch (0):

 

Not voting: Canik, Robert2424, The Warrior, Mandarijn,

 
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is noon EST on Monday, September 5, 2016

[The Warrior]

Suppose I am scum,then I wouldn't include fellow mafia in Town list.
Because
1)it is stupid obvious.
2)it will redirect attention towards people on that list after I am gone.
And will get them lynched.
3)so I am more likely to include townies on my list so as to eliminate them.
But this is considering I am mafia,which I obviously am not.
Though I am not able to convince some except the mafia of course.

This has been done in nearly every game that I have seen played. Scum players always include at least one of their scum partners in their town lists to try and keep pressure off of them for as long as possible. It isn't until that particular scum is killed that suspicion is cast on those on their previous "townie" list. Doing this in a game with only 7 players and 2 scum is more uncommon though because the game is so small to begin with.

 

Consider this,all other players have spoken about me being scum,but isn't it wrong cause someone else should also be the scum.So if you consider it,I am not a scum as you claim.

I'm not sure that I understand this argument. There are of course two scum in the game but why should it exclude you from being scum just because you are the only one currently being talked about? Even another scum could make some token passing comment about you seeming sort of scummy in order to blend in. They just wouldn't pursue it any further.

 

What can we gain from this lynch? Obviously a wagon has already started. After my vote, someone will need to be the hammer. If MK is town, we can rest assured that the 2 scum are on the wagon. It's too small of a game to convince 4 towns to vote off the 5th townie.

If MK is scum, we can be pretty assured Mandy is town by him trying to poke at him about a PR, and Lyner would more than likely be Town trying to get a quick wagon on him. I don't believe the scum have day talk unless I misread the roles, so that couldn't have been something planned.

If we do lynch MK and he flips town, I don't think that it's a forgone conclusion that both scum would be on his wagon, but we can be nearly 100% sure that at least one is.

 

Your second point is a good one. I was reading through the rules as well and did not see day talk listed for the scum. Assuming this is the case, it means that the scum have not yet been able to communicate privately and strategize, so up to this point they have been acting alone.

 

I noticed another thing that scum might do tomorrow

 

Supposing we mislynch a VT today, and scum get a VT tonight, tomorrow one of them WILL roleclaim as cop as fast as they can to frame an innocent townie to decrease the actual cop's credibility and to secure another kill, thus winning the game on night 2.

 

Therefore we couldn't really rely on PRs this time around unless we got lucky and hit a scum today.

 

So if we end up lynching a VT today we would be left with:

6 players

-4 town: 2 VT's, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor

-2 scum

 

Scum would have a 50% chance of killing a power role tonight.

 

If the scum kill a second VT at night we would be left with the following for day 2:

5 players

-3 town: 1 VT, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor

-2 scum

 

The scum could claim any one of the three remaining town roles when day 2 starts. That would force whoever our real person is to counter-claim and we would have to decide which of the two is telling the truth. If we guess wrong and lynch incorrectly tomorrow, we would lose on night 2 unless our Doctor managed to stay alive and protect the right person at night.

 

 

Let's look at a second (no lynch) scenario:

 

If we choose not to lynch today we would be left with:

7 players

-5 town: 3 VT's, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor

-2 scum

 

If the scum kill a VT at night we would be left with the following for day 2:

6 players

-4 town: 2 VT's, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor

-2 scum

 

In this scenario scum would not have at least a 50% chance of hitting one of our power roles until night 2. This scenario would essentially push the entire game back a 1/2 day and the scum would not be able to successfully use the role claim strategy until day 3 instead of day 2. If our Cop manages to live through both night 1 and night 2 that would give us at least two results to use on day 3 when we are forced to lynch correctly or lose. Of course one or both of the cop's results could be useless at that point since his investigation targets could both potentially be killed at night before then.

 

I am starting to lean towards the following strategy:

-No lynch on day 1.

-Allow the Cop to investigate someone tonight that they think is suspicious.

-Hope that the Cop is not killed/roleblocked and actually receives a result tonight.

-If the Cop does survive with a result, have him role claim on day 2 and share his result. If he managed to find a scum, then we lynch that person immediately and are in good shape on night 2 with it being 4 town vs 1 scum.

-If the Cop investigated a townie, then that is at least one person that we can all remove from our suspect list immediately and allow us to focus on other persons of interest and hope we get it right.

 

At the very worst this strategy would allow us to get to day three with 2 town vs 2 scum:

Day 1: No lynch (7 Players Alive: 5 Town, 2 Scum)

Night 1: Scum kills 1 townie (6 Players Alive: 4 Town, 2 Scum)

Day 2: Town Mis-lynches (5 Players Alive: 3 Town, 2 Scum)

Night 2: Scum kills 1 townie (4 Players Alive: 2 Town, 2 Scum

Day 3: The two remaining active townies hopefully vote to lynch a scum before they can get two votes in on a townie.

 

This is the absolute worst case scenario. It assumes that the town mis-lynches on day 2 and that the doctor is not able to successfully protect anyone on night 1 or night 2.

[Lyner]

@KevinH

 

If the players remaining are: 2 scums and 2 townies, will the game end on mafia win?