120 replies to this topic

[Canik]

If Mafia does win at 2/2 then I still think we should lynch D1.

[The Warrior]

If Mafia does win at 2/2 then I still think we should lynch D1.

If we mis-lynch on day 1 and again on day 2 the game is over on night 2.

[Mandarijn]

I think we lose if it's 2 vs 2, because if we lynch a scum the next day. Scum kills the next night and then it's 1 vs 1 and it's over (unless the doc is still alive).

[Canik]

 

If Mafia does win at 2/2 then I still think we should lynch D1.

If we mis-lynch on day 1 and again on day 2 the game is over on night 2.

 

Right but if we lose at 2 town vs 2 mafia then if we no lynch on D1 and mislynch on D2 we still lose. You pointed this out yourself in your 1st post:

If we
choose not to lynch on day 1 and the scum team is successful wth their
kill we can really only afford to mislynch once.

With the cop having over a 66% chance of not finding scum N1, our odds are better if we just start lynching. (Assuming we lose at 2v2)

[KevinH]

Yes, the town loses at 2v2.  They can't get a majority to force a lynch.  Even if there's a doc alive, he can't self-protect, so the scum will eventually get him.

[Robert2424]

Yeah, basic Mafia rules, 2v2 Mafia auto wins as Town can't reach a majority. 

 

Canik, why you pushing so hard for a day one lynch. Do you truly believe it would help the town more? 

 

For personal Notes so far and I like just putting them out there in case I die. 

 

There are pro's and cons to a day 1 lynch here. To me each do have some merit, but really this game is going to be very hard with so few players. 

 

People For day 1 lynch so far,

 

Canik

King hitler? 

 

People for No lynch Day 1 so far,

 

The Warrior

 

Then I'm still undecided. 

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Supreme Leader MK (2): Lyner, King Hitler,
Lyner (1): Supreme Leader MK,
The Warrior (0):
King Hitler (0):
Canik (0):
Mandarijn (0)
Robert2424 (0)

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Canik, Robert2424, The Warrior, Mandarijn,

 
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is noon EST on Monday, September 5, 2016

[Canik]

Canik, why you pushing so hard for a day one lynch. Do you truly believe it would help the town more?

Now that we know Mafia wins if it comes down to 2v2, we know we HAVE to lynch a scum by D2.

Chances of lynching scum if we lynch on D1 - 28.5%, then 40% on D2.

(If the cop survives the night and has a successful investigation, D2 could be 50% or 100%)

Chances of lynching scum if we no lynch on D1 - 0%, then 33%-40% on D2.

(33% if Cop is roleblocked or don't share his info. 40% if he reveals a town. 100% if he investigates a scum but he only has a 33% of doing that. He has a 14% chance of being roleblocked. A math major may be able to put all those numbers together for an overall estimation of success, I don't know how to do that but I think it'd end up somewhere around a 50% chance.)

A 28.5% chance + a 40% chance is better than a single 50%ish chance. So yeah, I believe it would help town more and that is of course why I am pushing it. The con of a PR being more likely to be killed at night is a moot point if protecting them decreases our chances of lynching scum. We don't win the game by protecting PRs we win by lynching scum.

tl;dr Two lynches are better than one. Protecting PRs isn't worth it if it takes away 1 of those lynch opportunities.

[Robert2424]

ok. I would agree 2 lynches are better then one lynch. since the only way we win is by lynching. If we don't lynch day 1, we are essentially relaying on the cop as our odds won't be that great day 2. 

 

So i'm currently leaning towards a day 1 lynch for a change.

 

Note: The Warrior was viewing the thread during my last post but didn't post? 

[Lyner]

Yes, it'd be better if we go lynch on day one.

 

TW has modded some games, I'm pretty sure he knew about the 2v2 rule--unless he already asked Kevin before that there is some exception in this setup, hence my question to Kevin.

 

Apparently it is the default rule, and TW insisting that we go no lynch could mean that he's scum trying to mislead us.

 

FoS The Warrior

 

 

 

Also If we actually targeted a PR, he should've come out and role claim before getting hammered. As far as we can see, SLMK haven't done that, leading me to believe that he is either a mafia goon or a vanilla townie. Therefore a safe target for today.

 

I'm tempted to pressure TW actually, thoughts?

.

[The Warrior]

I did not know that the game would end if it was 2 vs 2. I thought that there could be a chance for that scenario to come down to whoever received two votes first would be lynched. I was operating under the assumption that "if two players reach the half majority and have the same number of votes, the first person to receive that number of votes is lynched" rule that is present in my games.

But with Kevin's clarification that 2v2 would end the game as a loss, I agree that we need to act today. SLMK is our best bet right now for all of the reasons given earlier.

Vote SLMK.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Supreme Leader MK (3): Lyner, King Hitler, The Warrior,
Lyner (1): Supreme Leader MK,
The Warrior (0):
King Hitler (0):
Canik (0):
Mandarijn (0)
Robert2424 (0)

No Lynch (0):

 

Not voting: Canik, Robert2424, Mandarijn,

 
With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch, or 2 at deadline.
Deadline is noon EST on Monday, September 5, 2016
 
Mod note: With our half-majority at deadline rule, The Warrior is correct in that the town could secure a lynch by putting 2 votes on a scum before the scum can put 2 votes on a townie.  However, I don't want the game to devolve to that and hereby make a special rule that 2v2 wins for the scum.

[The Warrior]

Thank you for the clarification, Kevin.

So at this point Canik, Robert, and Mandarijn have yet to vote. What are some of your thoughts?

[The Warrior]

Current post count for the sake of argument:

 

The Warrior 11 KevinH 9 Canik 8 Supreme Leader MK 6 Robert2424 6 Lyner 6 King Hitler 4 Mandarijn 4

 

I'd like to hear more from the group of people with 6 or fewer posts.

 

-SLMK is on the chopping block currently and should be defending himself and helping scum-hunt if he's town.

-Robert says that two lynches are better than one and that he is leaning towards lynching but has not yet voted. What are your thoughts at this point?

-Lyner insinuated that I was trying to mislead town with the whole 2v2 thing. I defended my line of thinking and Kevin has commented on that and confirmed that it was not an incorrect way for me to think (as a game mod). Lyner has read the thread since then but has not said any more about it.

-@KH : Do you have any further thoughts since your SLMK vote?

-Mandarijn's first post where he asks everyone to give reasons for suspecting people was a good post. He also in that post notes that we should start the real discussion. He votes for SLMK in his second post for some of the same reasons that I have, but he seems to hedge his bet by saying that he isn't sold on him and that his actions could be attributed to this being his first game. He later unvotes for SLMK in his third post citing the reason that he doesn't want the day to end early. Fair enough but then what are you doing to help contribute to the conversation moving forward? His last post just basically comments on the 2v2 discussion.

 

If you guys are town please help scum hunt. There aren't many of us in this game so if even one or two townies are not actively helping we don't stand much of a chance.

[Mandarijn]

I'm actually waiting for SLMK to post, but it seems he won't.

 

Not much has happened actually, it's pretty clear that we have to lynch today and SLMK seems the perfect guy at this moment. I'm still not that convinced, a lot depends on this lynch and it seems to just be going to easy, which could indicate scum is also (indirectly) pushing for him.

 

My other 2 suspects are still KH and Robert. Nothing has happened to change that.

[The Warrior]

You noted that your reasons to suspect KH and Robert were random guesses. Is that still correct? Are they on your list as a result of gut feelings or does something else cause you to suspect them?

[Mandarijn]

You noted that your reasons to suspect KH and Robert were random guesses. Is that still correct? Are they on your list as a result of gut feelings or does something else cause you to suspect them?

All the others are contributing more, so seem more town to me. Which leaves those 2 + SLMK. But of course all the others are also the most experienced players I think, so they could be playing me.

[Robert2424]

I currently think we should Lynch day 1. But SLMK is to me rather new and I try not to vote out the new people in hopes they'll stick around for more games instead being one and done sort of thing. So looking at this, the next vote on slmk will result in a Lynch. So I have to wonder how long he will truly stay at l-1 if he's town and scum take there chance's day 2 while quickly ending the day today.

TBH lyner confuses me with the way he words stuff. Tw the driving force really and most vocal out of anybody in the game. I think slmk could flip either way, and he's at L-1. Most others don't have too much of decent read on. If TW is scum, we are in trouble as very few wish to challenge him. Mandarin also somebody worth keeping an eye on.

[Robert2424]

We still have 4 day to get a Lynch, so I'm not in a huge hurry to get a Lynch. But now that slmk is at L-1 who's willing to place the hammer vote, or is someone going to back out in voting for him?

[The Warrior]

I get why you would want to give new players the benefit of the doubt but if they're scummy, they're scummy. It's fine if we wait a few more days to actually lynch but in the meantime we need everyone to talk. Otherwise there is no point in waiting. Anyone who isn't actively talking and scum hunting will have their suspicion level increased.