226 replies to this topic

[Ali bin Turban]

Rhizo, facts are as follow:

 - Vampires are restricted in the department of post numbers.

 - If people post to much vampires will get that limit proportionally increased.

 

Therefore if we don't test the limit and will not be very active it will be possible for the vampires to be even in the top posters. Going overboard may not help us (especially if just a few people are doing it), but we definitely should test those limits. Therefore everyone that's trying to discourage people from posting is helping vampires.

 

As for the current setup:

 

1. Vampires - they are afraid of van Helsing and werewolves. They piss on us, common folk, as we can't do anything against them.

2. Werewolves - they're afraid of vampires and they know we can hurt them too. They don't care about Van Helsing, but will cut him into ribbons if he gets in their way.

3. Us, the common folk - we've as much knowledge about our surroundings as sacks of potatoes we're holding in our cellars.

 

So conclusions are:

1. Monsters will die no matter what we do. Until one team is left, their survival actually does not depend solely on our actions (enemy team is actually more dangerous).

2. Our killing power depends on our longevity - the more nights we survive the more opportunities will be available for van Helsing and Arsonist to destroy our opponents.

 

At this point random lynches will most probably do more worst than good (since we'll be most probably killing townies, thus reducing our longevity). Until there's one enemy team left (and therefore we're back in a standard mafia game where we're forced to lynch od loose) keeping our heads down is a solution worth considering.

[Wolfpacks]

Thank you for the prod KevinH, yeah sorry been at work all day and as a driver I'm not allowed to post and drive.

I think Ali has got the game down as much as I can tell, vampires hate werewolfs werewolfs hate vampires, both hate van Helsing and love to use townies as cannon fodder, I'm personally in the corner of nolynch for D1, we need to know more about each other, more then we can learn in one day

Vote No Lynch

[D34THBR1NG3R]

I don't know about no lynch D1, if we strike gold (vampire) then we can just have them killed N2 or WW can kill them since they're opposing factions. I'm not gonna do the math on the percentages on lynching D1 but i feel it would be beneficial.

[KevinH]

Unvote.

 

I didn't really want to lynch Wolfpacks.

iSocialism posted, too.

 

Mod:  When's the deadline?

 

I'll be gone for 2 days.  Don't lynch me.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

I'll be gone for 2 days.  Don't lynch me.

Obvious WW or vampire excuse...

 

(If anyone thinks I'm serious they have my vote) 

[iSocialism]

I'm assuming the arsonist is considered a sk. Meaning he won't win if the town get all the vamps and wolves gone.

[SeaBeeGipson]

I'm under the theory we have 1 vampire, 1 werewolve, and 1 Van. In this setup, is it possible for town to win?

[Canik]

SLMK said days will last as long as the # of players alive. That means D1 should be 11 days. So I won't commit to anything yet. I think we should talk, pressure people and if we get a good feeling on someone then lynch. If we don't have a good feeling on anyone then maybe no lynch.

@ Rhizo, I don't care for how you avoided my post where I voted for you and asked if we were on the same team this game. Other than that your opening post seemed townie but also seemed a little forced IMO. Maybe I'm being influenced by bias but really feeling we're on opposing teams again.

@ Robert, I agree there is probably 2 Vampires, 2 Werewolves. Then 1-2 arsonist. I assumed the arsonist were town at first but iSocialism does make me
question that.

I'm under the theory we have 1 vampire, 1 werewolve, and 1 Van. In this setup, is it possible for town to win?

Uh yeah, of course town could win if those are the teams. I would expect town to win if those are the teams.

[SeaBeeGipson]

 

 

I'm under the theory we have 1 vampire, 1 werewolve, and 1 Van. In this setup, is it possible for town to win?

Uh yeah, of course town could win if those are the teams. I would expect town to win if those are the teams.

 

I'm just confused on who can kill who even after reading it a few times. 

[Canik]

Everyone has means to kill everyone, the town just can't lynch Vampires. We need a werewolf, arsonist or Van Helsing to do that.

Werewolves & Vampires get 1 factional kill per night (tho SLMK hasn't 100% clarified this, he said they are two scum teams so they should)

I guess it's possible a lone Werewolf or Vampire could win but I'm pretty confident there are 2 of each. I think the game would be more balanced that way and that way if one is killed early it's not instantly game-over for them.

[Robert2424]

Since only one person responded to my last post, I'm guessing people are in silent agreement. :/ . I'm not sure weather we should go for a Lynch or not.

Vampires are clearly the bigger threat, and werewolves can be considered normal. (Though I wonder if there any special conditions, like every odd night there's a full moon allowing them to kill).

[Rhizoctonia]

Canik - I'm sorry if you feel slated for me not responding to your vote on me, I took it as a rather lulz vote.  You seemed sure we aren't on the same team this round...I don't know whose on my team besides 1 person, thus I can't answer that.....your actions/votes will help me better decide if you're.  I also was trying to make it at least through D1 without jumping on you for a change.  

KH - So you don't feel slated either, I will respond to your vote.  I'm sorry for staring at you in the cafeteria...I was just amazed you were willing to try the "meat surprise," and was waiting to see if you puke.

 

ABT - 

 

Rhizo, facts are as follow:

 - Vampires are restricted in the department of post numbers.

 - If people post to much vampires will get that limit proportionally increased.

 

Therefore if we don't test the limit and will not be very active it will be possible for the vampires to be even in the top posters. Going overboard may not help us (especially if just a few people are doing it), but we definitely should test those limits. Therefore everyone that's trying to discourage people from posting is helping vampires.

 

I'm sorry, but I disagree with your point.  You literally stated the "facts" for which you clearly realize that if people post more, the amount of vampires can post will go up.  So how you go from that, to then saying people discouraging people from posting is helping vampires is beyond me.  No, in fact, the more people post the more it helps the vampires because they not only can post more, but now you're allowing them to be able post more to maybe push a lynch elsewhere.

To go into more detail to explain what I'm saying, 

 

Therefore if we don't test the limit and will not be very active it will be possible for the vampires to be even in the top posters.

 

People being active does not change the chance of a vampire being a top poster.  In fact, you could be making it easier for them to seem less like a vampire because they're allowed to post more often.

So let's take mod's example of what the posting restriction may look like,

 

For eg for every 5 posts,vampires may post twice and something on those lines.

 

 

Now let's guess for the sake of it, how many vampires are in this game.  Some seem to think 1, some think 2, let's for the sake of likely overcompensating, say there's 4 vampires.  That would mean there are 7 other players who have no restrictions.

Now, if out of the 7 other players, each average 5 posts (for sake of example).  That would mean a total of 35 posts.  Now if we use the example SLMK brought up, with 35 posts, getting to post twice per 5 posts, vampires would be allowed to post a total of 14 times.  So, vampires could in fact be a top poster compared to everyone or majority of people simply because of what you're suggesting, everyone be active and posting a lot.  If the average is 10 posts per the other 7, the vampires can post 28 times....which if someone posts 28 times...you're not going to look at them and think it's someone with a restriction.

The more everyone is active and posting, the more total posts there are, and the more that allows Vampires to post, that is if their restrictions are the same or similar to the example.  Everyone being active does nothing to shine light on vampires...if everyone is posting a lot, if their restriction is simply determined by total number of posts, the vampires could easily match the amount of posts as everyone else individually.

 

Simply put, you and anyone else trying to read into post counts as a sign of a vampire is quite faulty.  No one knows the restrictions put on how much a vampire can post unless you're one, and if the restrictions are similar to the example the Mod made, everyone actively posting does not help shine light on a vampire anymore then if no one posted, either everyone barely posts and thus vampires can't either and so it's hard to differentiate between a vampire and anyone else, or everyone is active, thus increasing how much a vampire can post, and once again making it hard to differentiate.  It becomes even worse if a few people are actively posting while other town are not, and the active posters are boosting the post count that allows vampires to post more then town.  To me, this is something to look into when the amount of players left is smaller....a smaller amount of players means less total posts, which means vampires will likely not be able to post as much.

 

If this is merely done for help of Van Helsing, then it's not a huge ordeal because Van Helsing only kills Vampires, thus if he's wrong it doesn't matter.  But when people start trying to push lynches over post counts as the basis of it, it's very likely a vampire even with restrictions will post more then some VT's and you're going to start to get into mislynching over.  

 

I'm not trying to discourage people from posting, but I'm not also advocating people just post and be active just to.  You're the one suggesting people post a lot....which means Vampires are going to be able to post more.  To me, you advocating people post a lot is quite beneficial to Vampires.
 

Question for the mod - Does every new day erase the previous day's total posts?  Basically, if vampires had extra posts they could of used on D1 but didn't, do they roll over to D2?

[Robert2424]

Holy wall of text batman! I read that huge post when I get home.

[iSocialism]

I would think that the arsonist is against the town even though he can't target VH.

Because vamps and wolves are against each other and the town that each of those team would have more then one player.

Kevin if your still here, how would you mod this?

[Mandarijn]

So let me get this straight, we have 4 roles that can kill at night (every night?)

- Van Helsing

- Vampires

- Werewolves

- Arsonist (after N3)

 

So we'll lose 2-3 people every night? That would be pretty harsh...

[D34THBR1NG3R]

So let me get this straight, we have 4 roles that can kill at night (every night?)

- Van Helsing

- Vampires

- Werewolves

- Arsonist (after N3)

 

So we'll lose 2-3 people every night? That would be pretty harsh...

Wait if Mandarijn is right, then won't we lose after like 2 days?! Assuming there is more than one vamp then it would take at least 2 or three or however many there are nights for them to be caught, providing Van Helsing knows who they are, in which town would've lost about 4 I'd say, taking into account vamp vs WW and WW vs Vamp also with Van Helsing on Vamps.

[Wolfpacks]

I thinking there could be more vampires then werewolves, which would give a better chance for them to compete, maybe a 3 to 1 ratio, but they can't be lynched, but I'm guessing werewolves can and I'm guessing that once more townies get lynch the more chance VH can get lynched. If this is the case then a mislynch would be more hurtful before the night comes. I think the post route is kinda irrelevant as nobody know what the restriction is, It could be they can only vote as many times as a werewolf can or VH or it could be a percentage of the biggest poster, if it is the later it isn't going to be that important because people have to post to stay alive
With the arsonist he can only ignite at nighttime but can kill anytime at the day until n3 then he can kill at night, I'm guessing this here he will no longer be able to kill at daytime after this

[Robert2424]

 

So let me get this straight, we have 4 roles that can kill at night (every night?)

- Van Helsing

- Vampires

- Werewolves

- Arsonist (after N3)

 

So we'll lose 2-3 people every night? That would be pretty harsh...

Wait if Mandarijn is right, then won't we lose after like 2 days?! Assuming there is more than one vamp then it would take at least 2 or three or however many there are nights for them to be caught, providing Van Helsing knows who they are, in which town would've lost about 4 I'd say, taking into account vamp vs WW and WW vs Vamp also with Van Helsing on Vamps.

 

if there are 3 kills a night, that means Van Helsing found a Vampire. In witch case,, 1 scum is automaticly killed. There is also the chance a vampire could hit a warewolf, or a Warewolf hitting a vampire. An advantage is, to the Vampires, warewolfs are the bigger threat, and to the warewolfs, the vimpires are a bigger threat then the Town poses to either of them. Town has 1 killing role automaticly and he can only hit the Vampires, therefore, the Warwolfs don't care about the Van Helsing role, as it can't harm them. Assuming they will be attempting to take eachother out at some point. As a Townie only has the vote, while they are threated to just be killed outright by the other. 

 

Arsons only able to use there role till day 4 in witch case by then we probably be in do or die. 

 

So Vampires are the bigger threat overall, if Van Helsing dies, the town is pretty much powerless against the Vampires, till day 4 and by then they might be taken out. Meaning our fate is in the hands of the warewolfs to get lucky and hit them during the night. 

 

If Van hits a vampire N1, our odds should be pretty good to win the game. Unless he dies also N1. I imagine Vampires will be observing the thread heavily in order to try to obtain the info to Eliminate Van during the night. Meaning if the town plays Favorites to much with Van, he identity could accidentally be indirectly revealed, and we're screwed. 

 

@SLMK, will you alert us when a faction has been eliminated? 

 

If the answer to my q to the mod is yes, after the Vampires have been eliminated, it will do us no harm to reveal who is Van. 

 

Also, by the off chance, we eliminate the Warewolfs early, and if Van has been eliminated, the Vampires are almost all but assured victory. Vampires will probably be actively scum hunting to try to find the ware wolfs and they will try to ideally eliminate them via lynching while trying to eliminating Van at night. 

 

I do agree with Rhizo, The post count is a moot thing and might as well not even be there. It is too insignificant to make a valid option to find the vampires, at the same time though, the people who came out with this theory, (Ali) is likely not Vampire, as they are attempting a way to find them. 

 

@KH, I peronally find it more likely there is 2 vamps and 2 Wares. there is an off chance there could be 3 Warewolfs. Or 1 vamp. 

 

Isoc seems very off to me. although a town arson is rare, it be made more clear if there was just a 3rd party arson. His posts are rather short also, and I feel he's adding more confusion on purpose then adding anything meaningful to the conversation. 

 

Vote Isoc

@Wolfpack, if anything I'm guessing there more Warewolfs then Vampires with there day immunity. The only way the vampires can be eliminated during the night. It be way too unbalanced for vampires to have more then the warewolfs. 

[Ali bin Turban]

@Rhizo, I'm so sure you're totally wrong I could bet any amount of tech on it. It would make no sense to implement post restriction in a way you've described, because it restricts nothing. What kind of restriction would be scenario where "10 people has made 10 posts, so a vampire can post 40 times"??? You don't call it restriction and you don't implement it at all because it's not restriction, it's worthless gimmick.

 

Now use logic and take that "5 posts" SLMK mentioned in an example as average number of posts. Most probably SLMK's post restriction looks like that: X post + % of average number of posts. Now please rethink your statement with that assumption in mind.

 

Now onto other things:

- If we lynch randomly (most probably we'll be hitting townies: 63% right now) we're looking at 3 deaths per N-D cycle (VH kills are 100% good ones so they don't concern me). With that amount of deaths, game will most probably end on D4. Also assuming there are 2 scums per team, each team have currently 78% chance to hit town. That means, if we act recklessly it will be very easy to wipe us out in just 2 nights.

- As long as 2 mafia teams exist bandwagon information is not very useful (scums will be hunting for other scum, and that presumable townie who's lynched a werewolf can easily be a vampire).

 

I think we'll need every town we can get on later days (D3/D4...maybe even D5)...so unless we're damn sure that someone is a scum, or we have very good chances for hitting scum, we should wait.

 - Even if we lose 2 townies at night - it means that chances of scum being killed next time are bigger now.

 - Town benefits from each night it survives.

[Robert2424]

Your odds could be off Ali as we don't know for sure how many scum there is. We know for sure theres a least 1 each as they exist but no much past that.