34 replies to this topic

[brewersalliance]

hahahahahahahahaha

 

I cant stand that woman.  she is bat shit crazy

[Rafay]

What are your predictions for mid terms? I'm really excited and can't wait till Tuesday.

 

I think Dems win lower house and GOP keeps senate and governors.

[Lysistrata]

What are your predictions for mid terms? I'm really excited and can't wait till Tuesday.

 

I think Dems win lower house and GOP keeps senate and governors.

It's really hard to say. I can't get away from my bad habit of following polls. I thought Hillary Clinton was going to win by a large margin in 2016, because I follow polls. My wife on the other hand, does not follow polls and said Trump was gonna win when he came down the escalator, and she never wavered, not once, from her support. I was all prepared to be the shoulder for her to cry on when he lost, but it turned into an all night celebration. The polls, and all the talking heads on TV and the papers, were all miserably wrong.

 

I haven't seen any of them make a correction. They are doing everything the same way they have always done it. So if something was wrong in 2016, it's still wrong today. It seems that most polling is done by Trump haters, and they tend to only talk to each other. Plus, I know for a fact that a lot of Republicans, and Trump supporters, keep their personal views private, because they know they will get bashed for it, and lead to arguments.

 

Early voting is a Democrat thing, Republicans are traditionalists and like to stick to election day. This was the very first time in my life I voted early. Republican numbers for early voting is very strong, and I really expect them to be just as strong on Tuesday.

 

That being said, I do expect the statewide elections to favor Republicans. The House is all local, and I expect Blue to just get Bluer, and Red to just get Redder. So prediction wise, I will stick with my bad habit and say the Democrats take the House, and Republicans will expand their majority in the Senate. My wife, on the other hand, is a true believer... she says Red Wave all the way. I will not make the same mistake by telling her she is not living in reality. The economy is real, but the hate for Donald Trump is just as real.

[Rafay]

After 2016 I too have lost belief/faith in the polls buddy. But I'm going mostly on gut feeling. You see that Dems are bringing out the big guns like Obama and Hillary for campaigning and the rallies have shown good crowd response/attendance. So it just seems to me that Dems make take 220-225 in lower house while senate will be 52-48 GOP.

 

And yes the country will get further split along party lines with every election, I wholeheartedly agree with you on that note.

[onbekende]

Most of the people going with "I don't belief the polls/predictions" generally don't understand what actual polling or predictions are. Couple this with some idiotic click-bait sites that went for ludricous "+95% Hillary" stuff and you indeed get bad faith in it.

 

For Polling: the metrics and adjustments behind polling are ever changing and ever updating, no respectable polling place wants to keep missing the obvious, like no kitching will keep forgetting to add salt.

 

For Predictions: take everything both with a grain of salt BUT also understand what an actual prediction means. For instance 538 (which got mentioned here and is only an aggregator!) had a Trump win more likely then you flipping a coin and get heads twice. Predictions are run in "big numbers/volumes" and are percentages, they aren't a "50%+1 WINS!" type deal.

 

And lastly, don't underestimate the November Surprise and its impact on still undecided voters.

[Lysistrata]

You see that Dems are bringing out the big guns like Obama and Hillary for campaigning and the rallies have shown good crowd response/attendance.

No Democrat wants to be seen on the same stage as Hillary... It's Obama and Biden that are out there, and they don't show you the crowd size. Trump rallies are gigantic, and there is no competition over who has the largest draw, but that won't win any election... or so I believe. Trump had the big crowds in 2016, and I didn't think that would win it. It just shows who has the most fanatics. Obama and Biden can't keep up with Trump. They are both now speaking like they have no vocal chords left, and that does more harm than good.

 

The things that matter most where the rubber meets the road is in the issues. Trump has real time, current issues in his favor. We have an economy this country has never seen before. Unemployment is at a record low. Not since 1969 have we seen 3.7%, but the thing that makes this much different... we didn't have 320 million people in 1969. This is unprecedented, and what makes it even worse for Democrats is Obama is on record saying things like "2% GDP is the new normal", "Those jobs are never coming back", and "What is Trump gonna do? … Wave a magic wand?". Then we have thousands of everyone south of the border, currently marching to invade the country. Anyone who thinks this is okay is bat-shit crazy. Then we have the Kavanaugh hearings that proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that Progressives will do anything, to anyone, in order to keep their power.

 

The Democrats are pounding the healthcare drum... again. Didn't they fix this back in 2009 when they had super majorities in both houses of Congress? No, they didn't. They screwed it up back in 2009, and are still trying to blame Republicans for it. It's a very old and exhausting issue to run on. So it still comes down to hating Trump, and hating Republicans. That's it.

And lastly, don't underestimate the November Surprise and its impact on still undecided voters.

It's "October Surprise", and they have already been played. Anything that happens now is called a "Hail Mary"... because there is no time for anything to take root and grow controversy.

[ccabal86]

Most of the people going with "I don't belief the polls/predictions" generally don't understand what actual polling or predictions are. Couple this with some idiotic click-bait sites that went for ludricous "+95% Hillary" stuff and you indeed get bad faith in it.
 
For Polling: the metrics and adjustments behind polling are ever changing and ever updating, no respectable polling place wants to keep missing the obvious, like no kitching will keep forgetting to add salt.
 
For Predictions: take everything both with a grain of salt BUT also understand what an actual prediction means. For instance 538 (which got mentioned here and is only an aggregator!) had a Trump win more likely then you flipping a coin and get heads twice. Predictions are run in "big numbers/volumes" and are percentages, they aren't a "50%+1 WINS!" type deal.
 
And lastly, don't underestimate the November Surprise and its impact on still undecided voters.

Adding to this: people don't seem to understand how odds and percentages work. If candidate X has 25% chance of winning that isn't insignificant. That's one in four, which is pretty substancial.

[DeathMerchant]

My theory is that the House is split right down the middle. And the Republicans gain 2 Senate seats.

Democrat voter turnout in Mid Term elections tends to be low, and their constant circus act seem to be pushing Moderates away.

[Rafay]

Mid terms do have a low turnout but this is Trump era we're living in. Its do or die situation for Dems. They have to mobilize their base and they are.

[Rand0m her0]

My theory is that the House is split right down the middle. And the Republicans gain 2 Senate seats.

Democrat voter turnout in Mid Term elections tends to be low, and their constant circus act seem to be pushing Moderates away.

 

More people turned out to vote for Hillary in the last election than anyone not named Obama  in the last 40 years. That's in percentage terms. In absolute terms more people voted for Hillary in the last election than anyone not named Obama period. 

[onbekende]

 

 

It's "October Surprise", and they have already been played. Anything that happens now is called a "Hail Mary"... because there is no time for anything to take root and grow controversy.And lastly, don't underestimate the November Surprise and its impact on still undecided voters.

 

 

A "Hail Mary" it is then, but I wouldn't think you to be forgetting the Comey shenanigans.

 

offcourse for something like that it is now too late.

[brewersalliance]

Dems win the House, GOP keeps the Senate, and my Governor is defeated

[Lysistrata]

Mid terms do have a low turnout but this is Trump era we're living in.

This was a little surprise this morning. It doesn't mean much, but it could be an indicator. Rasmussen came out with their final Generic Congressional poll today, and have called Republicans +1... this could be a significant sign because last week it was Democrats +3. This means they have seen a measurable shift. I won't hold my breath on it though.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_nov05

In absolute terms more people voted for Hillary in the last election than anyone not named Obama period.

… And... she lost.

forgetting the Comey shenanigans.

The Comey shenanigans lasted from July to election day, and that was because it's really hard to white wash the numerous years of crimes from an obvious criminal.

and my Governor is defeated

Who is your Governor? Scott Walker?

[onbekende]

Well in terms of guilty verdicts, 1 person did indeed trump the other...

[Lysistrata]

First states are coming in... good luck to everyone!