261 replies to this topic

[Velocity]

Townie-Point-Analysis ^TM

Day 1
Named Townie +∞

Rafay

Day 2
Not voting = -1

Colonel Medved, SeaBeeGipson, The Warrior, Velocity,

Not getting hammered when one more vote needed = -1

Velocity

Day 3
Voting to lynch Robert, now known to be town = -1

Rafay, The Warrior, Velocity

Totals:

+∞ Rafay
0 KevinH
-1 Colonel Medved
-1 SeaBeeGipson
-2 The Warrior
-3 Velocity

Velocity is still my #1 suspect

You also seem to have left out that I called out MK, a now known to be scum, and albeit I didn’t get him lynched, I only swapped my vote to Robert because I know I’m town and didn’t want to die because there was a chance he was scum. Not to mention I’d used the flavor text to support this, and we see it was correct.

Interesting RC SeaBee, I had expected Rafays mother to be a vanilla townie, considering her entire thing in this was to be his mother. Honestly for now I’m more inclined to believe SBG over Kevin, just because SBG hasn’t really been scummy and albeit Kevin hasn’t either but he’s still voted for me and still has me as his number one suspect and as I know I’m town, that’s no good. Not to mention the previously mentioned coincidental leaving out of me calling out the scum JOAT.

[KevinH]

Either there's some kind of redirection at work, or SeaBeeGipson is making it up.

 

I did not visit anyone last night.

 

The townie points were based on votes only, not on quality of posts.

+1 townie point to Velocity for voting to save himself.  That's a townie thing to do.

[Colonel Medved]

 

 

And how many points would you award yourself for visiting Wolfpacks last night?

 
None, because that didn't happen.

Interesting because as Talisa Stark, a Town Watcher. I watched Wolfpacks last night and behold, you also visited him on the night he died. So again, how many points would you award yourself for visiting Wolfpacks?

 

 

We finally have something to go off of! Kevin is dismissing the claim, but not giving anything to back it up other than "i didn't do it". Will be interesting to see how this turns out.

 

Since you have come out as Watcher, SBG. Would you be willing to give us your actions so far?

[SeaBeeGipson]

Here's a list of my actions

D1: I was informed of my name and given a VT role
N1: No action, I was a VT
D2: I was informed I had now become a Watcher role
N2: I watched MK, I had no real strong feelings about anyone at this stage and just picked MK because he was on the larger wagon.
N3: I watched Wolfpacks. I debated on following Rafay since he was a confirmed townie, but figured if we had a doctor, he most likely would protect Rafay and mess my results up. So again, I chose a random target.

N2 Results: "No result"
N3 Results: "You spotted KevinH"

I'm willing to trust my results over the theory a redirector is in the game. Also, with Velocity having a scum on his wagon (MK), it looks as if KevinH has pushed for Velocity's lynch for D2, D3, and now going on D4. I was waiting to see if Kevin was another role, as my worry with watching Rafay and potentially having a doctor skew my results. With him once again claiming he didn't visit him, despite my RC and stating I had the results he did, I'm inclined to believe he is scum looking to lynch Velocity and killed Wolfpacks.

My list:
Rafay - Confirmed Town
Velocity - Despite a weird RC, was targeted by scum. Scum hadn't lost anyone by this point, and with most PRs looking to be gone, scum had no reason to sacrifice one of their own. Probably Town.
Myself - Town Watcher

The two middle cards for me are Col Med and Warrior. One of them is Kevin's scum buddy, the other is someone else. It's worth mentioning we've had 2 days now with a second kill. Could be either a Vigilante or a serial killer. If it is a serial killer/vigilante, Velocity could very well be one of those roles as well. This also assumes we have 3 scums. We could have 2 scums + a SK out there.

KevinH - found him visiting Wolfpacks on the same night Wolfpacks died. Willing to bet this is one of our scums. Since I'm believing Velocity is town, Kevin has pushed for his lynch 3 consecutive days now.


Vote: KevinH
 

[The Warrior]

We got one finally. Nice job to whomever has a killing role!

 

This basically validates Velocity's role claim in my mind. It's possible that MK could have been voting for a scum partner but I'm doubting it. Velocity wasn't really in any danger yet so it's unlikely that MK would have bussed Velocity so soon. At the time of his vote it also would have put Velocity 1 vote away from a deadline lynch with no real competition since no votes had been cast for Robert yet.

 

Here's a list of my actions

D1: I was informed of my name and given a VT role
N1: No action, I was a VT
D2: I was informed I had now become a Watcher role
N2: I watched MK, I had no real strong feelings about anyone at this stage and just picked MK because he was on the larger wagon.
N3: I watched Wolfpacks. I debated on following Rafay since he was a confirmed townie, but figured if we had a doctor, he most likely would protect Rafay and mess my results up. So again, I chose a random target.

N2 Results: "No result"
N3 Results: "You spotted KevinH"

I'm willing to trust my results over the theory a redirector is in the game. Also, with Velocity having a scum on his wagon (MK), it looks as if KevinH has pushed for Velocity's lynch for D2, D3, and now going on D4. I was waiting to see if Kevin was another role, as my worry with watching Rafay and potentially having a doctor skew my results. With him once again claiming he didn't visit him, despite my RC and stating I had the results he did, I'm inclined to believe he is scum looking to lynch Velocity and killed Wolfpacks.

My list:
Rafay - Confirmed Town
Velocity - Despite a weird RC, was targeted by scum. Scum hadn't lost anyone by this point, and with most PRs looking to be gone, scum had no reason to sacrifice one of their own. Probably Town.
Myself - Town Watcher

The two middle cards for me are Col Med and Warrior. One of them is Kevin's scum buddy, the other is someone else. It's worth mentioning we've had 2 days now with a second kill. Could be either a Vigilante or a serial killer. If it is a serial killer/vigilante, Velocity could very well be one of those roles as well. This also assumes we have 3 scums. We could have 2 scums + a SK out there.

KevinH - found him visiting Wolfpacks on the same night Wolfpacks died. Willing to bet this is one of our scums. Since I'm believing Velocity is town, Kevin has pushed for his lynch 3 consecutive days now.


Vote: KevinH
 

 

Interesting role claim mate. I'm going to go ahead and call you out on it now though because I don't believe it's entirely accurate.

 

I am Gregor Forrester, Town Cop.

 

Night 1: I investigated iSocialism because he is traditionally quiet on day 1, doesn't like being pressed about not contributing anything, and then voted for me because of it. Result: Not Guilty.

Night 2: I investigated Kevin because I wanted to know whether or not I had to pay attention to him closer throughout the game. Result: Not Guilty.
Night 3: I investigated SBG. After MK flipped scum the two people I was least sure about were SBG and Colonel Medved since there hadn't been much talk about either of them up to that point. Medved was on one of the two big wagons and voiced the same concerns with Velocity that I had. SBG on the other hand voted for someone who had no chance of getting lynched at the time (MK) and chose to stay off of the two main wagons, presumably to make it look like he was doing something without actually doing something. Voting for MK at a point in time when there was zero chance that he'd be lynched would look good for SBG in the future if MK was ever lynched/killed and flipped scum. It was a subtle way for him to not only bus away from MK but to also stay out of the light of whichever wagon (Robert or Velocity) won yesterday and killed a townie. Result: Guilty.
 

SBG could very well be a watcher, but short of there being a Framer/Tailor present in this game, this is pretty clear cut. SBG is our second scum. His role was probably put in the game to attempt to identify the other killing role for the mafia.

 

From the mafia wiki:

In a setup with multiple killers, a Mafia Watcher may be able to identify opposing killers. They are fairly solid power roles in scum hands.

 

Vote: SBG 

 

 

[SeaBeeGipson]

Well found the 2nd scum/anti-town.

I got my role after the tracker died. What TW suggests is we had a tracker AND 2 cops at the same time. He also so happened to validate his ally as a town (Kevin) AND fi d myself as scum. Coincidence after I just claimed, both of his most recent investigations happen to be useful.

My vote is staying on Kevin.

[Rafay]

Vote: KevinH

[The Warrior]

Well found the 2nd scum/anti-town.

I got my role after the tracker died. What TW suggests is we had a tracker AND 2 cops at the same time. He also so happened to validate his ally as a town (Kevin) AND fi d myself as scum. Coincidence after I just claimed, both of his most recent investigations happen to be useful.

My vote is staying on Kevin.

For what purpose would you have received a power role after night 1? This isn't even a Universal Backup situation or something since you are claiming to have received a role that hadn't died.

 

And yes, I am saying that the town had two cops. One of our scum has already been shown to be a JOAT. Rhizo's role wouldn't have identified him as anti-town. Mine would have. And with at least two different cops, a tracker, and a killing role present it's highly likely that at least one of the other remaining scum members has a power of some sort as well (like a scum watcher perhaps..), which again Rhizo's role wouldn't be able to identify.

 

Unless there is a Tailor/Framer present in this game, you are our second scum.

[Colonel Medved]

Seems like information is just flowing now! It looks like today will be the turning point in this game, hopefully we decided to follow the correct lead. I find TWs claim believable, but he is a great mafia player. He could be planning out all of this, but for now i'm undecided on who to side with. 

 

 

 

For what purpose would you have received a power role after night 1? This isn't even a Universal Backup situation or something since you are claiming to have received a role that hadn't died.

 

SBG claims to have gained the role on D2, after the tracker was dead. I do find it somewhat weird that he was given information about his new position during the day, instead of during the next night. But at the very least he gained the role after Jazzy was announced dead.

 

I do have one question for TW about his claim

 

 

 

Night 3: I investigated SBG. After MK flipped scum the two people I was least sure about were SBG and Colonel Medved since there hadn't been much talk about either of them up to that point.

 

 

You mentioned that after MK flipped scum, your next step was to investigate either SBG or myself?

[The Warrior]

After Robert was mod-killed the few people remaining that I felt like I didn’t have any strong feeling on one way or the other were you, SBG, and Wolfpacks mostly. Wolfpacks wasn’t much of a concern to me because he and I were voting the same way so last night it really came down to either investigating you or SBG. Of the two of you, the one who stood out the most to me was SBG because he ended up keeping his vote on a separate wagon (MK) instead of placing it on one of the two wagons of which I believed that there were legitimate arguments in favor of voting for yesterday. SBG’s vote ended up staying on a now known scum but now that my investigation of him turned up the way it did it makes sense why he voted that way.

[SeaBeeGipson]

Or the fake cop results explain why I turned up the way I did. To defend your scum buddy Kevin. Again it's very interesting your role claim not only says I'm a scum (after I found your scum buddy Kevin) but also paints Kevin as town.

Why would I start the day with a fake claim, when according to Kevin's rankings, I wasn't even his target? Why would I, if I was scum, come right out the gates at Kevin unless I actually got a result? Wouldn't it be wise to sit back and let town eat each other?

You on the other hand provided your evidence after your scum buddy was found. Evidence that coincidentally states I'm scum and the scum I found to be town. Sounds more like a scum trying to defend his partner.

And since when is being on the wagon of a scum a sure tell sign I'm scum? I voted fairly early on the wagons and when I voted, MK could've been a candidate. You on the other hand were sitting on the wagon of an inactive town. A fairly safe place to be for scum. In fact when I voted MK, there was 3 votes on Velocity, 1 on Robert that everyone was questioning at this stage, and 1 on MK. That doesnt seem like hiding on an irrelevant wagon when it places MK 1 vote behind the leader.

My vote stands on Kevin since I know I got those results.

[KevinH]

I knew those results were wrong.

 

Now I know why.

 

Vote: SeaBeeGipson

[The Warrior]

Or the fake cop results explain why I turned up the way I did. To defend your scum buddy Kevin. Again it's very interesting your role claim not only says I'm a scum (after I found your scum buddy Kevin) but also paints Kevin as town.

Why would I start the day with a fake claim, when according to Kevin's rankings, I wasn't even his target? Why would I, if I was scum, come right out the gates at Kevin unless I actually got a result? Wouldn't it be wise to sit back and let town eat each other?

You on the other hand provided your evidence after your scum buddy was found. Evidence that coincidentally states I'm scum and the scum I found to be town. Sounds more like a scum trying to defend his partner.

I presented my evidence the first chance I got today. I was not able to check the game when it opened yesterday. You only paint the timing as convenient because you were able to post a little bit before me. Had I investigated you yesterday instead of Kevin and found you guilty then, I would have presented it yesterday and voted for you instead of a player who was completely inactive other than voting for the only confirmed townie in the game.

Unfortunately my role doesn’t allow me to verify whether or not Kevin visited anyone as you claim he did but he has refuted your claim. Even if he did visit Wolfpacks, while it wouldn’t look good for him, you can’t even unequivocally say that he killed him. MK just turned up as a JOAT. It is not unrealistic to think that one of his roles could have been a shot of ninja. Even more than that, we know for a fact that the town had a tracker and now you’re claiming watcher. If you were a town watcher the possibility of a ninja outright existing in the game would increase that much more. I don’t think you of all people need to be reminded what a ninja can do.

I, on the other hand have actual proof that something is sketchy about you. Two of my results have been not guilty and one of those two is proven accurate. My third result says that you are scum. So again, unless a tailor is present here, you are scum.

@The rest of the remaining town : We have a few days before the next deadline. Please take your time considering the arguments and evidence presented here. This could be our best chance to win.

[Velocity]

And how many points would you award yourself for visiting Wolfpacks last night?

None, because that didn't happen.

Interesting because as Talisa Stark, a Town Watcher. I watched Wolfpacks last night and behold, you also visited him on the night he died. So again, how many points would you award yourself for visiting Wolfpacks?

We know Talisa Stark is part of this, she’s been in the flavor text and mentioned for a bit now, Gregor Forrester so far has nothing to do with this. If SBG isn’t actually Talisa Stark, then who is? I personally don’t feel like he’d risk saying that he’s Talisa Stark if he wasn’t because scum would want to kill him and to that extent get a double kill on him and Rafay, and if he didn’t die from scum we’d either have a doctor (if one is alive) say they protected SBG or he’s scum and they couldn't kill their own member.

On the other hand, it’s odd that he would get the role out of the blue as opposed to anyone else, considering that he’s claiming Talisa Stark. It would be easy over up for faking what he did before he “got the role.”

I’m still thinking about it, so unless I have got more information soon I’ll be taking a bit to weigh the sides and make my decision.

[Colonel Medved]

After Robert was mod-killed the few people remaining that I felt like I didn’t have any strong feeling on one way or the other were you, SBG, and Wolfpacks mostly. Wolfpacks wasn’t much of a concern to me because he and I were voting the same way so last night it really came down to either investigating you or SBG. Of the two of you, the one who stood out the most to me was SBG because he ended up keeping his vote on a separate wagon (MK) instead of placing it on one of the two wagons of which I believed that there were legitimate arguments in favor of voting for yesterday. SBG’s vote ended up staying on a now known scum but now that my investigation of him turned up the way it did it makes sense why he voted that way.

 

 

Thank you for the clarification on that TW. I was checking for a possible inconsistency, but it seems to check out. 

 

I'm pretty torn between the two sides right now. I'm going to reserve my vote most likely until closer to deadline or until more information is presented that would sway my decision.

[SeaBeeGipson]

I was checking for a possible inconsistency, but it seems to check out. 

 

But does it really? Let me elaborate on this.

Let's all assume The Warrior is telling the truth in these scenarios and I'm scum for sake of argument and compare it with what we know. 

Scenario 1: I'm Scum, Velocity is my scum partner (This is more for Rafay, and CM. Velocity I know is town at this point.)
In this scenario, it implied that not only Velocity, but myself both voted for MK during D3. Not only that, it implies that MK and Velocity started lynch wagons on each other, and when Velocity's picked up, I (the other scum), tried to draw attention to MK by joining his wagon. Basically, this implies the scum were all trying to kill each other and they didn't even bother to look for another target. In fact, at the time I voted the wagons were as follows:
Velocity: KevinH, Lord MK, Col Med
Lord Mk: Velocity, SBG
Robert: Rafay

If I was scum, why did I 1) Not join Robert's town wagon? 2) wait to see if another wagon formed, or 3) try to start another wagon. Instead this idea implies I placed the other scum in 2nd place, while Velocity (scum in this scenario) in first and doing nothing to draw attention away from the scum team. If I was trying to earn brownie points as a scum lynching a fellow scum, wouldn't it make more sense to kill Velocity who had the easier wagon?

Scenario 2: I'm Scum and Col Med is my scum partner. (This is more for Rafay and Velocity)

This implies that D4 started with KevinH setting a FoS on Velocity. Not only in this scenario are both of them town, but I would have nothing to gain by defending them. In this scenario, it implies I jumped out of the gate to defend Velocity, fake claim (without knowing what other roles were out there), and targetted KevinH. Instead of letting them form wagons on each other. What do I have to gain here except making myself a target? Why would I put myself in the spotlight when I could've let Velocity and Kevin put the spotlight on each other. I don't even think I have to explain how this scenario makes no sense.


Scenario 3: I'm the only scum left/I'm the SK

This would be a horrible mistake on my part to fake claim this early. What would I have to gain? In this scenario, I fake claim to get Kevin lynched? and then what. When he appears town, I'd be dead tomorrow. As the only scum, I wouldn't hold a majority to win. Even with Kevin dead, and a night kill completed. I'd hope you guys wouldn't think so low of me to make this mistake.

Those all seems like some pretty big inconsistencies with me being scum in my opinion.

Scenario 4
The only, real scenario is that I'm telling the truth and Kevin and The Warrior are the two remaining scum. When I discovered Kevin as scum, Warrior fake claimed to counter my claim and cast doubt to defend his scum buddy. In this scenario, TW lies to save Kevin and get me lynched. They then night kill a town and win by majority. At this point, only Velocity/CM (whom ever they dont kill) and Rafay would remain versus TW and Kevin. 

His claim is no more/less concrete than mine. His claim includes 1) a dead, already confirmed townie, 2) his scum partner, and 3) his target
My, however, if it was a fake claim, help a risk. If anyone had a power role (that I didn't know about) and investigated or visited MK on N2, and I got no results, it would've flawed my claim. Why would I risk that in a situation that, again, I had nothing to gain?

As far as a ninja theory, that would involve 1) if there are two scums, we'd have a JOAT and a Ninja, and Rhizo's goon cop role would be useless or 2) We have 3 scum, 1 JOAT, 1 Ninja, and 1 goon. If this theory applies, then please see above. In which scenario and whom is my scum partner if a ninja exists? 
 

[brewersalliance]

Vote Count 4.1

 

Colonel Medved (0) 

KevinH (2) SeaBeeGipson, Rafay

Rafay (0)

SeaBaeGipson (2) The Warrior, KevinH

The Warrior (0)

Velocity (0)

 

Not voting:  Colonel Medved, Velocity

 

In Danger of Mod Kill: Rafay

 

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch or 2 at deadline.  Deadline is 5/19 at 11am CN time

[Velocity]

Vote Count 4.1

Colonel Medved (0)

KevinH (2) SeaBeeGipson, Rafay

Rafay (0)

SeaBaeGipson (2) The Warrior, KevinH

The Warrior (0)

Velocity (0)

Not voting: Colonel Medved, Velocity

In Danger of Mod Kill: Rafay

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch or 2 at deadline. Deadline is 5/19 at 11am CN time

“SeaBaeGipson”
If I don’t have my question about SBG claiming the other Stark that I believe is in here including going to vote Kevin tonight. For me it’s the make or break

[brewersalliance]

Just an FYI

 

I am going out of town for the weekend, so I am moving the deadline up to 5/16/19 at 10PM CN time

[The Warrior]

 

I was checking for a possible inconsistency, but it seems to check out. 

 

But does it really? Let me elaborate on this.

Let's all assume The Warrior is telling the truth in these scenarios and I'm scum for sake of argument and compare it with what we know. 

Scenario 1: I'm Scum, Velocity is my scum partner (This is more for Rafay, and CM. Velocity I know is town at this point.)
In this scenario, it implied that not only Velocity, but myself both voted for MK during D3. Not only that, it implies that MK and Velocity started lynch wagons on each other, and when Velocity's picked up, I (the other scum), tried to draw attention to MK by joining his wagon. Basically, this implies the scum were all trying to kill each other and they didn't even bother to look for another target. In fact, at the time I voted the wagons were as follows:
Velocity: KevinH, Lord MK, Col Med
Lord Mk: Velocity, SBG
Robert: Rafay

If I was scum, why did I 1) Not join Robert's town wagon? 2) wait to see if another wagon formed, or 3) try to start another wagon. Instead this idea implies I placed the other scum in 2nd place, while Velocity (scum in this scenario) in first and doing nothing to draw attention away from the scum team. If I was trying to earn brownie points as a scum lynching a fellow scum, wouldn't it make more sense to kill Velocity who had the easier wagon?

Scenario 2: I'm Scum and Col Med is my scum partner. (This is more for Rafay and Velocity)

This implies that D4 started with KevinH setting a FoS on Velocity. Not only in this scenario are both of them town, but I would have nothing to gain by defending them. In this scenario, it implies I jumped out of the gate to defend Velocity, fake claim (without knowing what other roles were out there), and targetted KevinH. Instead of letting them form wagons on each other. What do I have to gain here except making myself a target? Why would I put myself in the spotlight when I could've let Velocity and Kevin put the spotlight on each other. I don't even think I have to explain how this scenario makes no sense.

I don't believe scenario 1 is what is at play here either. As mentioned, MK flipping scum basically validated Velocity's town credentials for me.

 

Scenario 2 is possible and you absolutely would have something to gain by defending Velocity and targeting Kevin. Velocity was still a target of Kevin's but that in no way guaranteed that either one of them would be successful in forming a wagon on the other today without help. But with Kevin pressing Velocity yesterday you knew that it would be likely that Velocity (knowing his own town alignment) would look harder at Kevin for pressuring him. Fabricating a claim to incriminate Kevin would make it easier to sway Velocity to back you against him. All you would need at that point would be for CM, Rafay, or myself to follow your fake claim and secure Kevin's lynch and most likely the game. This was a gamble on your part but a calculated risk because even though you didn't know what (if any) other PR's might still be in play, you were probably feeling pretty good about the fact that there hadn't been any evidence or even a hint of evidence brought forth by anyone up to that point. Seeing a Goon Cop, a Tracker, and a bunch of VT's probably made it worth the risk.

 

As far as a ninja theory, that would involve 1) if there are two scums, we'd have a JOAT and a Ninja, and Rhizo's goon cop role would be useless or 2) We have 3 scum, 1 JOAT, 1 Ninja, and 1 goon. If this theory applies, then please see above. In which scenario and whom is my scum partner if a ninja exists? 

 

You are conveniently forgetting a third option where your role isn't a watcher and you fake claimed pretending to see someone visit Wolfpacks on the night he was killed to hopefully get a lynch on Kevin today and end the game with a night kill.

 

It doesn't make sense that Talisa Stark would start out as a VT but then be magically given a power role on day 2. This doesn't make sense for a couple reasons:

1. There is no real game mechanic that I'm aware of outside of Backup/Universal Backup that would support that occurring. Given the fact that it was a Tracker (not Watcher) that died the night before you supposedly became a Watcher, you can't be a Backup/Universal Backup.
2. If Robb Stark is a VT and Talisa Stark is a VT, why would Talisa Stark be the character that would be gifted a power role over Robb Stark? That was part of everyone's contention with Velocity's role claim at the time that he made it. Not only did he tease having a PR, but then when he claimed Robb Stark was a VT it didn't really fit with the story. It's even harder to believe that Talisa Stark would be gifted a PR instead of Robb Stark considering that Talisa Stark is the first person to die at the Red Wedding. Robb is at least alive for awhile longer and witnesses his army and family being slaughtered before being killed himself.

If you are indeed a Town Watcher and you had incriminating evidence against Kevin who supposedly visited Wolfpacks, why did you wait until your third post of the day (~14 hours later) to role claim?