Anyone want to start a conversation about the Coronavirus? The latest thing I am concerned about is the passengers being able to leave the Diamond Prince cruise ship as people were still catching the virus on the ship...That and the incubation period may be longer than the 14-day typical quarantine.

 

Thoughts?

I hadn't heard that it could be longer than 14 days ...  unless you mean the news that it seems folks can have it without showing symptoms or before showing symptoms.  I don't know if that means they are like carriers or if they are bound to come down with it.  Nothing in the reporting about it.

 

More alarming to me, is how China keeps changing how they are reporting the numbers exposed and dying from virus.  Seems the news is that one day they use one standard and the next change it.  No news on why.  In the mean time, while the numbers there are made to look better or ARE, the numbers are worse outside of China.  Now this can make sense.  When you quarantine a whole province and shut it down, for weeks and there is little to no movement, the virus can run its course pretty much.  In other places nothing was in place and folks were moving around spreading the illness without tracability.  A recipe for disaster.

More alarming to me, is how China keeps changing how they are reporting the numbers exposed and dying from virus.  Seems the news is that one day they use one standard and the next change it.  No news on why.  In the mean time, while the numbers there are made to look better or ARE, the numbers are worse outside of China.  Now this can make sense.  When you quarantine a whole province and shut it down, for weeks and there is little to no movement, the virus can run its course pretty much.  In other places nothing was in place and folks were moving around spreading the illness without tracability.  A recipe for disaster.

 

I agree that it is likely the Chinese government is exerting at least some influence on the publicly-released numbers, but in cases of new disease emergence, changing testing standards, and the development of a uniform set of symptoms to permit diagnosis without a testing each individual is normal.  The same happened with Ebola, HIV/AIDS, and the Spanish Flu.  We just get to witness the initial confusion more readily because of the faster speed of modern communications and the faster onset of symptoms relative to other diseases (e.g. AIDS).

 

Someone on the Wikipedia article updates this chart (which despite the caveat to be somewhat wary of the numbers), which I think is a reasonable source of hope:

 

Looking at the numbers, it is obvious that this disease isn't extremely contagious or extremely deadly.

 

That's not to say it should be shrugged off, but under the assumption anyone reading this is from a developed country, in all likelihood if you were to be infected, medical professionals could administer antivirals and treat you symptomatically until your immune system won.  The greatest risk you'd face is if too many people needed medical care too quickly that it overwhelms the medical system's ability to provide care for everyone.  (Think how the US can easily rescue 100s or 1000s from natural disasters, but the response breaks down if asked to help 100,000s quickly, as in New Orleans after Katrina.)  The bigger risk in terms of worldwide casualties is if the virus gets a foothold somewhere with a less-capable medical system, such as Sub-Saharan Africa.  Unfortunately, trade between China and that part of the world is relatively extensive, so increased risks for populations there ...

Corona disturbs me a little. I live in Las Vegas, and we have hundreds of international flights coming here constantly. I work at home, and I have minimal contact with people, but my wife works in an extreme public atmosphere, and it's always a concern for her health and what she is exposed to every day. So, I'm watching very closely how this virus is handled.

 

I find it a bit strange how often these obscure contagious calamities come out of China. After all, it is a Communist country with far too much population, and I do not trust for a second that they are at all honest about it's origins, any plans for a solution, or the casualties involved. I would not rule out the possibility of the Chinese Government culling their population to prevent an economic disaster... nor would I rule out the possibility of the Chinese Government using biological weapons against us. So yeah... there's that.

About China's shifting numbers/reporting: Firstly they had a crude DNA marker test which took time but also lots of scarce resources. They then went to the "uniform set of symptoms to permit diagnosis" way with a chest x-ray to diagnose. Now they are back to DNA marker test but one more readily available and easier to use.

 

Currently they should be pretty good at a precisious reporting of the infections, just don't expect accuracy to be on their side

 

As for the virus, it seems to be more in the sweet spot of not-to-deadly and very-contagious then how for example SARS was. It also doesn't help that people can go under the radar while being carriers who are infectious but not actual sick. As with many virusses, most patients do come down with secondary issues that strike the elderly or weakest harder.

Corona Virus doesn't concern me too much. As mentioned before, US healthcare seems capable of dealing with it as long as the virus doesn't spread out of control, infecting massive amounts of US citizens.

 

What does bother me is the virus is how contagious it is. But then again, you are much more likely to die from cancer, accidents, disease, or the regular flu. Taking basic sanitary precautions and avoiding the public in flu season goes a long way.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-study-incubation-period/

 

Reference my post: A study by Chinese researchers found that the Wuhan coronavirus incubation period can be up to 24 days, contrary to the previously believed 14 days.The median incubation period was found to be three days, with a range of zero to 24 days.

Honestly, I am getting concerned, as some pretty bad news have come out of Italy, with two smaller regions being quarantined, both being close to big population centers: Milan, Padua and Venice. Italy is just a country away...

 

FORTUNATELY, the virus seems to be something akin to a bad case of flu, so most folks can tough it out. The worrying part is that I'm absolutely certain that my country isn't prepared to deal with an epidemic on a state-level, the government being too incompetent and the healthcare system being in ruins. I doubt the system could even properly manage 1000-2000 patients and would outright collapse from more.

It's funny to think about the massive reaction imbalance from the US Government regarding a couple dozen deaths from black market Vitamin E acetate tainted pot vape products compared to Coronavirus. Where there is money to grab, and regulations to lay down, they can't keep themselves from stomping their large footprint all over an entire industry... but a virus epidemic killing thousands... well there is just no profit or political capitol in dealing with that.

My country had the great idea of giving the citizens the choice to just stay home, instead of an actual quaratine when they retrieved them from China. With the longer incubation period - I'm really just waiting for them to report infections here. And I never trusted the numbers China was putting out to begin with honestly.

 

I'm a bit worried - I try to keep up with the news, but there's so much unreliable stuff as well. Keeping a close eye on the Italy developments. Although I figure it'll be too late, and my government health department still has on its site that you can only get sick from someone who's showing signs - so that's a bit outdated and doesn't give me much confidence in them.

No need to worry, according to President Trump it will go away in April when the heat rolls in.

https://youtu.be/AwFTZawOc9k

 

Pretty much why china is screwing over the WHO so not helping the situation

The Corvid-19 virus is completely blown out of proportion. 

 

In Wuhan it has infected about 77,000 people (25th of Feb). Now don't forget,t hat is simply those who bothered to go to a doctor, many will have had a fever / headache / sore throat and just sat it out at home like they would any other cold. Wuhan as 11m people. So roughly 0.7% of people get sick enough to go to the hospital. The death rates in the >80's is the highest at 14.8%. About the same as most seasonal flus. In the population that affects most of our members (20 to 50) you're looking at death rates at around 0.2-0.4% as you progress up the age brackets. No one who has presented to hospital under the age of 9 has died. 

 

As a rough guideline, if you're over 80 your chances of either not getting it or getting it and surviving the Corvid-19 even in Wuhan is 99.897%. under 40... 99.9986%. 

 

By contrast in the USA alone in 2018 100 people a day were killed on the roads, and let's be fair, that's in a country with a pretty low rate of deaths per billion vehicle miles. Very few people are sat watching the news worried they might die driving to work tomorrow. 

There are 4 versions of the corona virus which are part of the annual "common cold" virus set. 

Corona virus = tedious media over load to avoid discussing anything actually interesting... Much like Ebola. How many hours of fox news was dedicated to ebola? How many people in the USA died from it?  

Yeah. I'm not worried about it.

Thanks for the perspective Blade, it’s much appreciated.

 

Yeah, I read somwhere that the “good” news is that Covid-19 is fairly compatible with the human body. But what does that mean?

 

Well, keep in mind two things: Virii CANNOT survive in the open evironment for too long, they need a host simply to exist. Also their reproduction is parasitic, which in optimal circumstances, means they don’t strain their hosts too much and thus remain infectuous for a long time, going around and around in a population.

 

The flu is a perfect example. The number of carriers rise and drop with the seasons, but there is always a number of people carrying it, because the symptoms are generally mild enough (cough, runny nose, etc) to not prohibit the infected person from spreading it far and wide. In short, mild symptoms, high penetration.

 

Now, if a virus is incompatible with the human body, that either means it cannot infect human cells, or causes nasty symptoms and a high death ratio (MERS, Ebola, etc). In these severe cases, the virus is unlikely to spread very far, as the hosts come down quickly, and get little chance to infect others. Severe symptoms and low penetration.

 

As Covid-19 is the former case, it has been theorized that containment is futile, and By the end of the year 50-70% of the world population will have caught it (with most people never realizing it) and it will become part of the usual flu roster that Blade has mentioned

Good points all.

Am  I personally worried about this, not in the least.  I personally don't give a damn what the Idiot in Ottawa, and his merry band of elves have to say.  Jesus, the Minister of Health is advising us to stock pile food and meds.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/coronavirus-live-updates-who-covid19-covid-19-italy-china-canada-wuhan-deaths

That being said.  Try explaining that there is nothing to worry about to your autistic spouse.

Yeah.

Guess who spent the better part of today out buying groceries, just to avoid an argument.

Also, stop buying masks, they don’t help:

 

https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/1233725785283932160?s=20

Blade: isn't the issue less about the overblown lethality but more that it is a SECOND flu-season virus. basically you just doubled the potential deathtoll if you let it spread readily. Not to mention it also keeping medical staff off patient care due to either being sick or possible carrier post-sickness.

I was worried about it at first but reading the numbers and the flu killing more people within a year, I’m not really worried. My fiancé though is worried as hell. I live in Massachusetts, and so far New Hampshire has one confirmed case and a possible in Rhode Island. Still not really worried. I work at a Whole Foods and this past weekend, holy shit. People freaking out, canned goods wiped out and some buying 10 cases of water in one purchase. Just today, this one guy bought $750 worth of toilet paper, hand sanitizers and sanitizer wipes. Media definitely plays a part of this. I really hope it doesn’t get declared as a pandemic

Also, stop buying masks, they don’t help:

 

https://twitter.com/Surgeon_General/status/1233725785283932160?s=20

I wouldn't say that is completely true. I took that statement as damage control to help preserve what mask supply exists. So it can be properly allocated to the medical field and other health care professionals.

 

Lot of US citizens out there are buying masks and other random supplies, but there is this false security that a mask is all you need and you will 100% safe. Not many actually know about the mask ratings, or that you should also wear goggles/gloves, and how to fully decontaminate yourself. The "Do Something" mentality is in full swing regardless of how much sense it actually makes.

 

I was worried about it at first but reading the numbers and the flu killing more people within a year, I’m not really worried. My fiancé though is worried as hell. I live in Massachusetts, and so far New Hampshire has one confirmed case and a possible in Rhode Island. Still not really worried. I work at a Whole Foods and this past weekend, holy shit. People freaking out, canned goods wiped out and some buying 10 cases of water in one purchase. Just today, this one guy bought $750 worth of toilet paper, hand sanitizers and sanitizer wipes. Media definitely plays a part of this. I really hope it doesn’t get declared as a pandemic

I've been seeing the same thing all over Facebook. Bare shelves of water cases, canned food, cleaning supplies, protective clothing/gear. Instead of blowing their Tax Returns on cars, TVs, or vacations, they are blowing it on trying to buy their way out of a problem they don't fully comprehend.

I lived in the lesser state of Washington, where 6 confirmed deaths have been reported. My only worries are not being able to buy TP/regular stuff when needed, my almost 5 month old and her health, and idiot drivers.

As for my country, I read yesterday that people have started stealing masks from hospitals since they're nearly impossible to buy anymore, or at retarded prices. I only got a handful, as I lean more towards that they don't quite help to not get it - just to help remind you not to touch your face too much and if you are infected to sort of try to keep it within the mask and not infect others.

Blade: isn't the issue less about the overblown lethality but more that it is a SECOND flu-season virus. basically you just doubled the potential deathtoll if you let it spread readily. Not to mention it also keeping medical staff off patient care due to either being sick or possible carrier post-sickness.

 

Not really. Flu season isn't a fixed window. In a good year you might only see a winter increase of 2-3 times the summer influenza like illness load. If you're in a bad season you may look at 15 times. IF you're in a 1916-1918 style season then... well... tell your >70 relatives you love them.

 

Yes, obviously the more people it infects the more people that will die from it. 

 

As for medical staff, no healthcare system has the reserves of trained staff required to deal with a true pandemic ILI. In a reasonable worst case scenario you're looking at 20-25% of the workforce off sick at the peak. Health care workers may be higher than that due to high levels of viral load exposure prior to effective vaccination. This would lead to either bed closures in hospitals or increasing the workload on staff who would end up providing close to emergency only care and very strict criteria as to who would be admitted to a hospital etc.

 

For those who don't know I  am a doctor in a large emergency department in the UK. We have many anxious patients a day coming to us convinces they were near a foreign person who sneezed and they might be dying. The media panic along is nearly breaking the system, hell only knows what it'll be like if shit actually hits the fan.

 

Ultimately many people will catch this illness and be unaware they caught it or think it's a normal cold. Those who die will likely be the old people. Considering the western world is heading towards a population crisis of too many old people and no young people willing to take care of them... well... you can make your own mind up as to how that sentence could end.  

 

re: CC's comment on compatibility, I suspect it is largely driven by it not being hugely different from existing well circulated corona viruses. 

Blade, I rather meant it is a "second coming" of a similar disease, regardless how neatly it overlaps the actual flu

 

Part that also plays is that it is "new", mankind still mistakingly thinks it can whip mother nature to its whims. Sure it doesn't come from a multitude of (non-human)carriers like the actual flu, but we are still overstating our superiority.

Sadly the infection rate is to large coupled with a mediocre sickpanel and various infectiontiming leads to a lost cause from the start. You are just lagging a good week behind the curve. Heck Italy just started massivly exporting their failed containment due to the end of spring holiday

 

Also, the Spanish one went disproportionate to 20-30y olds, offcourse a recent world war didn't help.

Blade, I rather meant it is a "second coming" of a similar disease, regardless how neatly it overlaps the actual flu

 

Part that also plays is that it is "new", mankind still mistakingly thinks it can whip mother nature to its whims. Sure it doesn't come from a multitude of (non-human)carriers like the actual flu, but we are still overstating our superiority.

Sadly the infection rate is to large coupled with a mediocre sickpanel and various infectiontiming leads to a lost cause from the start. You are just lagging a good week behind the curve. Heck Italy just started massivly exporting their failed containment due to the end of spring holiday

 

Also, the Spanish one went disproportionate to 20-30y olds, offcourse a recent world war didn't help.

 

I mean... we are all expost to 4 routine corona viruses, the 2 historic "dangerous" ones were MERS and SARS. 

 

It was supposedly a bat if I recall correctly?

 

The infection rate isn't a huge deal. Many will be minimally symptomatic. It's hardly a death sentence.

 

Pragmatically it might lead to nature the culling of the infirm 60+ population, which will hopefully put the UK right wing out of action.