446 replies to this topic

[killgor]

i'm kind'a starting to think that it would be a good idea for the childe to roleclaim. it would bring the lynch odds to 50% and it would help the remaining power role in the decision of using his night powers. if we have a JK, he'd know that during the first night he didn't block someone that was targeted by the scum, and of we have a tracker or a cop they'd know who not to target from now on (although if we have a tracker and they already tracked that person that wouldn't matter, but that's beside the point). also, it would give everyone a 3 out of 6 chance of choosing scum when voting hence the 50/50 chance. the major drawback though is that it also gives scum some help in trying to find who he is and kill him but, if he does die this night, tomorrow the 2 known townies will hopefully have better odds trying to find out who the scum is.

[Lyner]

i'm kind'a starting to think that it would be a good idea for the childe to roleclaim. it would bring the lynch odds to 50% and it would help the remaining power role in the decision of using his night powers. if we have a JK, he'd know that during the first night he didn't block someone that was targeted by the scum, and of we have a tracker or a cop they'd know who not to target from now on (although if we have a tracker and they already tracked that person that wouldn't matter, but that's beside the point). also, it would give everyone a 3 out of 6 chance of choosing scum when voting hence the 50/50 chance. the major drawback though is that it also gives scum some help in trying to find who he is and kill him but, if he does die this night, tomorrow the 2 known townies will hopefully have better odds trying to find out who the scum is.

 

If we're starting to bandwagon on Child he can easily roleclaim, so nah, Child roleclaiming out of nowhere is a bad move

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 3.02
 

Alternate_Tree (1) - iSocialism
d3mon (2) - KevinH, Lyner
Electric Mango (0) -
Euclid of Alexandria (0) -
Imran Ehsan (0) -
iSocialism (1) - Euclid of Alexandria
KevinH (1) - Electric Mango
killgor (0) -
Lyner (0) -

Not Voting (4) - Alternate_Tree, d3mon, Imran Ehsan, killgor

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
d3mon is the current wagon leader at L-3
Deadline is Wednesday, July 24th, 2013 @ 09:30 EDT

[Euclid of Alexandria]

We won't be lynching the innocent child whether he claims now or later. Therefore his premature claim would not improve our chance to lynch scum at all. There's simply no point in it. It only helps the scum. A tracker, doc or jailkeeper should not claim unless they can share something useful. Even then they should ask themselves is it so valuable that we can't take the risk that we lose it in case the scum get lucky with their NK, or is it worth the risk to get even more info. One thing is for sure: as soon as they claim the scum will NK them to prevent them from sharing any further info.

FoS @ KevinH and killgor for trying to get our PRs to claim.

[KevinH]

I think it's best to wait a day before a mass role-claim.  I fully expect there to be more claims than possible, because the scum know which roles are not taken and can easily fake it.

[KevinH]

If I had my way, we would have lynched DarkIceDragon,  Then Imran the vig could have killed D3mon and we'd definitely have 6 active townies right now. 

 

D3mon has a 33% chance of being scum and a 0% chance of voting to lynch scum.  Let's lynch him now and finish the game with active players.

 

If there's not a jailkeeper, then there must be a cop or tracker (assuming vigilante and innocent child are 2 of the 3 chosen roles).

 

The cop only has 1 investigation, but it will conclusively clear somebody or condemn somebody.  The tracker has to correctly pick which of the 3 scum is delivering the kill but will be very useful if we can reduce the scum to only 1 player.

 

I propose the following:

• We lynch D3mon (33% chance of being scum)
• We lose another townie to a night-kill (assuming jailkeeper, if any, is unsuccessful)
• That leaves the townie to scum count at either 5 to 2 (33%) or 4 to 3 (67%)
• Remaining power roles role-claim.
• Surviving vanilla townies follow the lead of the claimed power roles;  it will be easy for the scum to claim one of the roles that they didn't assign, but we can guess which ones are most likely.

I'm telling you so now.

 

When it's 5 to 2 or 4 to 3, the power roles should claim (the innocent child can wait until he's about to be lynched).  The vanilla townies need information in order to best find a scum to lynch.  The cop, tracker, and jailkeeper should all share what they know.  The scum have knowledge.  They will vote to lynch a townie and they will kill a townie at night.

 

The scum want to kill the cop, tracker, and jailkeeper before they can share what they know so will argue against role-claiming tomorrow.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

It's up to the PRs themselves to decide when to claim. Why are you pushing them?

[killgor]

tomorrow is LYLO unless we lynch scum today. if the ino childe roleclaims, the scum have 2 choices: either they kill him or the already exposed vig, (it makes no difference to them, a known townie will die) or they try to kill the remaining power role, which means it is probably a strong role. if we don't lynch scum today, we start tomorrow with a 4vs3 play and, worse case scenario, it will be 2 power roles and 2 remaining townies vs 3 scum.

also, the thing is that if the scum want to kill a known townie, they always have imran to snipe off. giving them a choice between imran and the childe isn't going to decrease our chances too much.

if we were to manage to lynch scum today, the idea of the childe to roleclaim today wouldn't be that effective (excepting the case when him roleclaiming leads to us lynching scum directly, but that's very improbable).

 

but of course it is his role and he is the one that should make the final decision on when to roleclaim. these are my 2 cents though.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

If we mislynch today we'll not just be at LYLO tomorrow, we'll be at LYLO until the game ends. We'll have to lynch scum three times in a row to win this. It doesn't matter that the scum already know Imran as confirmed town as they have plenty of time to NK both of them. It's best that the innocent child remain secret for as long as he can as he might come in handy in the end game.

[KevinH]

Alternate_Tree (1) - iSocialism
d3mon (2) - KevinH, Lyner
iSocialism (1) - Euclid of Alexandria

If I knew whether iSocialism, Lyner, or Euclid was a confirmed townie, I'd be more inclined to follow them.
For now, D3mon is the best choice.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

KevinH (1) - Electric Mango

Don't forget EM! If he is confirmed you should follow him!

Seriously though, blindly following confirmed townies is silly. They don't get a crystal ball upon being confirmed you know. Just don't vote for them, you need not vote with them. Or did you just post that to make yourself look like a townie?

[KevinH]

I know the scum will try to manipulate me and make me vote for another townie.  A confirmed townie, even with no special information, is in the same situation as me.  Together we can mass our votes and achieve a lynch.

 

Electric Mango must be scum.  He hasn't denied it.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Manipulate? You mean like when you post all current wagons except your own?

[Electric Mango]

I know you're just joking when you say that Kevin but I'm serious about my accusations. Its interesting how you've chosen to ignore them however.

[d3mon]

Sorry for not posting. Between TE and RL, I completely forgot about this game.

 

 I am trying to catch up on all the posts that have been made but am kind of amazed that I only have 2 votes on me (what happened to the lynch the inactives wisdom??). Anyhow, it seems that Imran is for all intents a confirmed townie. At this time if I were to choose the most probable scum, I would have to go by the traditional wisdom i.e. look for someone trying to keep a low profile and blend in with the crowd.

 

While, most active people have stood out, I believe the most likely scum at this time are

 

FOS: iSocialism, Lyner

[Lyner]

 I am trying to catch up on all the posts that have been made but am kind of amazed that I only have 2 votes on me (what happened to the lynch the inactives wisdom??). Anyhow, it seems that Imran is for all intents a confirmed townie. At this time if I were to choose the most probable scum, I would have to go by the traditional wisdom i.e. look for someone trying to keep a low profile and blend in with the crowd.

 

While, most active people have stood out, I believe the most likely scum at this time are

 

FOS: iSocialism, Lyner

 

Lynch the inactives wisdom has failed

[KevinH]

Unvote.

 

I know you're just joking when you say that Kevin but I'm serious about my accusations. Its interesting how you've chosen to ignore them however.

 

Let's find the accusations...

 

I haven't started building a case on anyone yet but my FOS award goes to KevinH for dedending CS right before he was lynched. My gut tells me Kevin defended CS knowing he was innocent to make himself look more townie.

 
What can I say? My gut told me CS was town, and I defended him because he was active. That's pro-town play.
 

... Nerau was an inactive and who hates inactives the most?  That's right, KevinH does. I believe he would lynch them for the good of the game play even though it may be detrimental to his faction.  Also KevinH never posted his obligitory, "I told you so" after a townie was lynched that he said was innocent.  
 
I'm on to you Kevin.

 
What can I say? At least Nerau voted before he was night killed. If he was still in play and inactive, he indeed would a candidate to lynch. That's pro-town play.
 

I'm telling you so now.

 
So the way I see it, Electric Mango is accusing me of playing pro-town and wants me to respond to those pro-town accusations.

Vote: Electric Mango

Is that a sufficient response?
 

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Sufficient to show that you can cast an OMGUS vote? Yeah, definitely plenty sufficient.

[Electric Mango]

I was hoping someone else saw that.

[killgor]

hummmm... conflict... me likes!!