LordSunday

Since I'm still alive, I have to assume one (1) of two possibilities, either LS is scum but can't hammer me or Imran is scum and cant hammer LS. On the surface, this seems like a lazy vote by Imran, not much logic, just swinging for the fences on hope. This is not the usual MO for Imran, either this is a tell or Imran has gotten lazy with age. I'm going with my instincts on this one. Vote: Imran I would like to take the moment to acknowledge this post and make it clear I am not hammering it. With that in mind, we can now confirm I am town. If there's any debate to this point, quite simply I had the opportunity to end the game both times. If I were scum there is literally zero reason I would've just passed on at either point a clear opportunity to end the game.

It's near impossible for me to post in this currently. When I load the thread it either continuously refreshes or stops at post 20. Given that is when the page normally cycles over I think that's the big problem we're seeing with the thread itself. On another note, in the times I can load the thread if I start to type a response it will show there are new replies that I can hit to show all the posts up until Kevin's most recent one. It's weird and until it gets resolved in some way I'm going to probably only check in very sporadically.

Probability is honestly the best way to look at our choices here. Working on the assumption that Imran was in fact a townie placing his vote randomly there was essentially a 25% chance it would end the game and 75% chance it was a "safe" vote, since of the above scenarios there were only 4 that would apply (the ones where Zaach or myself are scum), and only one of those would have ended the game. Now though the probabilities have shifted. If I make a random vote, we're looking at the same 25/75 odds. But if Zaach or Imran makes a vote it's a 33/66 chance, since one of the possibilities is already negated by Imran's vote and my non-hammer. Again, this all assumes the person making the vote is actually a townie. If they are the scum, then their vote has no risk at all. I wonder if it would be worthwhile to risk "confirming" a townie (essentially having Zaach vote Imran, me make a post about how I won't hammer to acknowledge the vote, and then we now have a proven town (me) by virtue of non-hammering both other players). Completely removing one player from the prospective voting pool would mean we only have two players to focus on and give us a more solid foundation to work from. Otherwise, by pure probability I would make the next vote to play our 25/75 chance.

Looking at the whole picture, we have all the time in the world to decide. Obviously we all will claim to be townies, so we all can work on the assumption that one of the others is a fellow town and one is scum. But the interesting part is that scum has to account for the fact there's one person they cannot hammer. I would imagine based on whoever that is they'll have a couple of overarching strategies they could go for. Namely, vote first, or target the one they can hammer. It's difficult to say what our best collective course of action is here. We have nothing that we will be able to go on except each other's posts. Best thing we can do is keep conversation going and see who blinks Hmm, is there any scenario where town voting first would be beneficial? It seems like 50/50 to hit scum, but if you hit town its 50/50 that scum cant hammer. Now for scum, it seems like game rules favor them to vote first, but that would be an obvious tell, so logical choice would be for scum to wait for the first vote to be cast and then they would have 50/50 chance of hammering to win the game? Both of your probabilities are correct. It causes an interesting postulation and honestly you might be right that a town vote may be the most apt considering it either immediately ends the game, or, more likely, causes further discussion. Of course now we have one to go on. This puts me into the interesting scenario where now the question for you both becomes am I not going to hammer because I'm a townie that doesn't want to simply risk ending the game, or am I scum that can't hammer Zaach. If we put every possible scenario down we have technically eliminated one now (because if it were true this game would be over): Imran Scum - Cannot Hammer Sunday Imran Scum - Cannot Hammer Zaach Sunday Scum - Cannot Hammer Imran Sunday Scum - Cannot Hammer Zaach Zaach Scum - Cannot Hammer Imran Zaach Scum - Cannot Hammer Sunday

Looking at the whole picture, we have all the time in the world to decide. Obviously we all will claim to be townies, so we all can work on the assumption that one of the others is a fellow town and one is scum. But the interesting part is that scum has to account for the fact there's one person they cannot hammer. I would imagine based on whoever that is they'll have a couple of overarching strategies they could go for. Namely, vote first, or target the one they can hammer. It's difficult to say what our best collective course of action is here. We have nothing that we will be able to go on except each other's posts. Best thing we can do is keep conversation going and see who blinks

Of course! A perfect deduction of our true enemy. Vote: KevinH Vote: KevinH

Also checking in. Seeing as there's no deadline really no reason to do anything until Zacch drops in. The setup is very interesting. Essentially scum either has to put up the first vote and hope to get a townie to seal, or they get lucky and have the opportunity to hammer the townie they weren't assigned. In either way, I think any townie needs to weigh heavily before voting

Put me in Coach!

iwin90 wins... Except when I do

Well that makes this easy. Good luck getting any discussion in Vote: LordSunday

What am I supposed to say? I'm innocent? Lol good luck to my scum buddy y'all getting no help from me

Okay. I apologize I've missed most of D1; I may have forgot I signed up for this Inactivity certainly benefits scum, though given the mafia has no kill tonight it may not be beneficial to risk an inactivity lynch. Kevin made note that it would not end the game, but based on his following indicator that if there is not a majority it would be no-lynch would mean there's still no way for town to secure a lynch tomorrow on D2 with 4 alive? I think that makes the choice rather clear for today. Vote: No Lynch

I almost missed my collection cause y'all killed me! Bring me back to life!

Just noticing this now, only half majority at deadline to lynch. Something to keep in mind, in future rounds we should defacto vote no lynch to prevent scum from doing a snipe lynch if there is not already half majority at deadline. I guess that's to help get more twilights, but to that end... Unvote

Traveling for US Thanksgiving. I’ll be back home in next 24 hours it’s hard to type on phone. It’s an interesting setup. The twilight mechanic will be interesting for sure. I can’t decide who deserves my vote more but for now. Once scum always scum. Vote: Imran Ehsan