89 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

I'm confused about mafia and godfather being different factions.
Could there have been two night kills?

[SirCrocodile]

Yes, but the Godfather chose not to night-kill.

[Kaziocore]

So basically we have 2 mafia factions???

Anyway it's like we're just starting on day 1 with 5 townies and 2 mafia members
since the cop never sent a pm to the mod
(this may be a clue for the doc as the cop may be someone who is relatively inactive)

Now the question is whether to lynch or no-lynch again...

[BeeBs]

The mafia and the godfather are different factions.

Alright, I totally missed that. My bad, that said, where do the rest of ya'll stand? Should we roll the dice on another night?

[BeeBs]

EDIT: I missed all the other posts on page three, sorry. I'm really having some technical difficulties in this game...I'll echo the confusion about the third faction. Either way, with a cop who doesn't seem to be active (night one was an important night to get the ball rolling and they failed) doesn't that throw a lynch pin in the benefit of doing a no lynch? WIthout and investigation we're a player down, I don't think we're going to get lucky twice.

I'd drop of vote on
d3mon
ABigDeer
reign of terror
Nerau

for being inactive, but as Kaziocore has pointed out a few times are slim numbers could make that a really bad idea. Here's hoping we hear from them...

[ABigDeer]

I'd drop of vote on
d3mon
ABigDeer
reign of terror
Nerau

I'm new to this and also I don't have anything to contribute.

[reign of terror]

I'm still here, but just dumbfounded that the cop didn't do anything during the night phase.

[d3mon]

I am just speculating but maybe the cop is a one use role.

[KevinH]

So basically we have 2 mafia factions???

Anyway it's like we're just starting on day 1 with 5 townies and 2 mafia members
since the cop never sent a pm to the mod
(this may be a clue for the doc as the cop may be someone who is relatively inactive)

Now the question is whether to lynch or no-lynch again...

I agree it's just like day 1 only the odds are better.

Vote: No-Lynch

Alternatively, we can try to guess why the goons chose Theophilos to kill but I don't see much to go on.

[BeeBs]

I agree it's just like day 1 only the odds are better.

Vote: No-Lynch

Alternatively, we can try to guess why the goons chose Theophilos to kill but I don't see much to go on.

Hold on, here's what I don't understand, what is going to help us now with a no-lynch? My understanding was that a no lynch is used to set up a follow the cop strategy, but it doesn't seem like we have a cop to follow, whether he's inactive or a one use (as D3mon pointed out). So, whats the benefit? We lose one townie overnight and assuming the cop drops the ball again we are in tomorrow 4 to 2, with nothing to go off.

[KevinH]

Reasons to No-Lynch:

• A "random" lynch only has a 2/7 chance of getting scum.
• We know that there is a cop; give him another chance.
• The scum would not vote to lynch their own, so it would take 4 of the 5 townies to correctly target a scum.
• Conversely, if only 2 of the 5 townies pick the same townie to lynch, the scum can add their votes and get the lynch.
• There's a 3/7 chance of accidentally lynching a townie power role.

[BeeBs]

I see what you're saying. I guess I'd be tempted to vote no lynch for a slightly different reason. If we go into tomorrow the majority is still the same. With six players we need four to lynch (right?), so we'd still have the same problem with the majority, but have a higher chance of getting a good lynch by the odds. I'd be concerned with allowing for too much scum dialog to throw our decision, but with the small number of people posting I think that is less of a problem.

[Nerau]

with each night we get closer odds but eventually you have to make a move

so

Vote: No lynch

[KevinH]

There's not a "half majority at deadline" rule so the townies need to avoid being swayed by scum.

With 5-2 advantage, we can actually afford 2 night-kills against us with no lynches.
The cop can get in 2 investigations and if he doesn't find scum there could be 3 known townies out of 5 remaining players which would then make known the 2 scum. Two lynches and we win.

This falls apart if the scum night-kill the cop or a townie he has confirmed.
The cop should not role-claim until he has made the 2 investigations unless he finds scum the first time.

To mitigate the situation where the cop finds a townie tonight but get killed the following night, I propose that tomorrow everyone should post a player that they think might be townie -- the cop can post the actual player that he investigated. If the cop gets killed, then we'll at least have one confirmed townie.

[BeeBs]

To mitigate the situation where the cop finds a townie tonight but get killed the following night, I propose that tomorrow everyone should post a player that they think might be townie -- the cop can post the actual player that he investigated. If the cop gets killed, then we'll at least have one confirmed townie.

I like this.

However, you missed that it also falls apart if we don't have a cop to investigate. Either because he only gets one and has decided to pass, or because he's inactive. Either way, we lose a huge benefit.

On the other hand, I understand we have at least a semblance of a strategy this way and I'm going to chose that over guessing at this point. Hopefully the cop acts tonight.

[BeeBs]

Forgot, Vote: No-Lynch

However, if we don't hear from the cop tonight I think I will probably end up voting for a player tomorrow.

[reign of terror]

I see the point of no lynching again today especially because of the number of inactive players in this game so far.

Vote: No-Lynch

[KevinH]

After a little more thought ...
If the doc doesn't get night-killed, the cop can role-claim and ask for protection.
Then he will most certainly survive to reveal the next investigation.

[Kaziocore]

I think this is the first game where I would
choose no lynch... twice...

Vote: No Lynch

[Kaziocore]

After a little more thought ...
If the doc doesn't get night-killed, the cop can role-claim and ask for protection.
Then he will most certainly survive to reveal the next investigation.

and if the role blocker also survives he can greatly reduce the chances of
a successful nk