39 replies to this topic

[Yehom]

A friend of mine once asked me this question and I was surprised that every friend of mine who answered this question (including the friend who asked me this) answered it incorrectly (in my eyes)

 

You buy a ticket for the lottery and win. You get two choices, either you a) you get 1 million Euro/Dollar/Pond for the next 30 years, or cash in 15 million Euro/Dollar/Pond immediately. 

 

(Note 1: above numbers don't actually matter all that much, the premise of the question is whether you want X over X amount of years, or 1/2 X immediately)

(Note 2: the lottery will cash out even if for some reason you aren't alive in the next 30 years)

 

Please share the reasoning behind your choice and let's see how many people are going to get this wrong

[ccabal86]

I would definitely go with option A because:

1, It's a steady source of income that you can can very well plan with
2, In the end you get more money.

Of course, you need to factor in inflation, but for the sake the f the example I will assume that's 0%. IRL it might count quite a bit.

[Blade 619]

Option 1 using a standard 5% discount rate is worth 15.7 million over 30 years.

Option 2 is always worth 15 million. 

 

If you had a bloody good financial advisor then option 1 might be better.

 

If you average 3% interest paid annually on your 15 million pay out you'll get returns of 35.3, which when discounted is probably closer to 20million.

 

So I'd probably go for the $15m now.

 

However there is genuinely no right or wrong answer, it depends on how much you value future wealth vs current wealth and how you plan to use the money. If you also only have a short life expectancy there's no point in picking the slow payout.

 

This all assumes you get your winnings tax free. As if they're taxed option 2 takes a big hit.

[SeaBeeGipson]

I'd pick the immediate cash out. Honestly, I'm just an impatient person.

[ccabal86]

Option 1 using a standard 5% discount rate is worth 15.7 million over 30 years.
Option 2 is always worth 15 million. 
 
If you had a bloody good financial advisor then option 1 might be better.
 
If you average 3% interest paid annually on your 15 million pay out you'll get returns of 35.3, which when discounted is probably closer to 20million.
 
So I'd probably go for the $15m now.
 
However there is genuinely no right or wrong answer, it depends on how much you value future wealth vs current wealth and how you plan to use the money. If you also only have a short life expectancy there's no point in picking the slow payout.
 
This all assumes you get your winnings tax free. As if they're taxed option 2 takes a big hit.

Yeah, it really depends on the circumstances, and which country you live in. E.g. In Hungary, we have close to 0 inflation, but also close to 0 interest rates. But if the sum is paid in HUF as well, I'd rather take the cash now, as a million per year is nice, but not that big of a money here (divided down per month, it's less than a half month's salary for me). 15mil however is a nice sum, that I could invest somewhere, or just refurbish my appartment

[Finster Baby]

I'm in my mid-40s. In 30 years I'm in my mid-70s. No guarantees I'll be alive.

I'll take the 15mil now and invest it, and live off the returns generated. One, its taxed less, and 2, I can leave it to my family to continue to life off it.

[DarkFox]

Option 2, because I can invest it and possibly grow it faster. Option one I could invest as well but I could do safe investments and have well over 30mil in 30 years, and by invest I mean spend most of it in Vegas on black jack and hookers. Also because of inflation the 30mil might not even be worth as much as the 15mil now.

[Zorus]

Come on, for 30 years you'd be extremely comfortable with 1mil a year income, plus you might do something stupid if you get 15mil all at once..

[MWilson]

15 mil now, you can invest it and make it worth far more than 1 mil per year.

[samudragupta]

i will go with option B and start venture capital firm and burn the rest on world travels..

[Samus]

i will go with option B and start venture capital firm and burn the rest on world travels..

lol

[TheWanderer]

15 million now.

 

Life is short, and 15 million is more money than the vast majority of the people in this world could ever get their hands on. Count youself blessed and put some away...use the rest to make yourself and the people you love happy.

[ForgotPants]

You take 15 million now and you invest in capital-safe investments. Even in the worst possible case that you make 5% per year, thats 750k every year and your 15 million are safe as ever.

 

You could also spend 5 million immediately to improve your quality of life and invest 10 million for 500k per year (before taxes of course)

[Mazuurek]

i'd prefer not to go power mad (has happened before, didnt end well) with my getting 15 mil directly, i'd rather get 1 mil a year instead.

[Fox Fire]

Option 1.

Why?

• Taxes
• That's more money than I even care to own

[Sister Midnight]

15 million now means I can spend it, invest it, burn it, whatever. Instant gratification for the win.

Practically speaking, I can take that money, invest it for 30 years, and walk away with a lot more than 30 million!  This world not require making particularly astute investments, either. Also? who knows what will happen in 30 years, the lottery may run out of money, I could die. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

[Davian]

15Mil now. Invest the living shit out of it. I'll make 10x what I'd make in 30 years if it's wisely invested and the Market is stable.

 

But hey, who am I kidding? I'd go out and buy an Audi R8 GT Plus, twin-turbo it through my shop, and then invest about 5mil, spend the rest on a house and set myself up.

[Samus]

15Mil now. Invest the living shit out of it. I'll make 10x what I'd make in 30 years if it's wisely invested and the Market is stable.

 

But hey, who am I kidding? I'd go out and buy an Audi R8 GT Plus, twin-turbo it through my shop, and then invest about 5mil, spend the rest on a house and set myself up.

u smart boi

[ccabal86]

So, Yehom, what's your answer?

[Blade 619]

I've poked Yehom.