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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!

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Well I didn't realize I had placed the hammer vote at the time but evidently I did. Between me not being on the SBG wagon and being the one to hammer Lyner I expect to be lynched today. My suspicions lie with Kevin and Yehom going forward, though I have no evidence to back that up being a VT. 

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Either I was successful with protection or the scum are inactive.  I'm going with a successful protection and that makes LordSunday 100% cleared as townie.
 

 

Well this at least somewhat confirms something for me. Sounds to me like scum purposely avoided to not kill anybody to make a certain story more believable. The question to me is whether LS is in on it or not. To me Kevin is certainly scum. Nurse would not make sense to me game design wise and his voting has been very off as well. I don't have the time to scroll back through everything right now and if I had the time and the internet speed I would quote everything, but I'm pretty sure Kevin wasn't on any of the scum wagons expect SGB, which he was the final vote on and thus ended the day early. He voted for Lyner and Rhizo if my memory serves me correctly, both of whom have been confirmed townies now. If that isn't hinting to something wrong, then I don't know what is. I on the other had have been on 4 wagons, which include all scum and iSoc. I won't role claim until it is absolutely necessary, because quite frankly it's the only thing that's keeping me in the game. As soon as the mystery around me is cleared, scum have no reason to keep me alive. 

 

As I see it now WP and FS are town, purely based on their neighbor status and SLMK turning up scum (also I think it was WP who was investigated, so that extra clears him. 

CoD is very likely town seeing how he has voted so far. 

Finster roleclaimed Roleblocker and I'm inclined to believe him

This leaves Kevin who I suspect is scum and LS who I'm not sure what he is. In case we do successfully lynch Kevin and this game continues, he's probably scum, if the game ends with  Kevin's lynch in that scenario, he was town. 

 

Seeing as we have no informative PR left with the information that is available, I see no reason to wait for anything to happen, so I'm voting now

 

Vote: KevinH

 

Either I was successful with protection or the scum are inactive.  I'm going with a successful protection and that makes LordSunday 100% cleared as townie.
 

 

Well this at least somewhat confirms something for me. Sounds to me like scum purposely avoided to not kill anybody to make a certain story more believable. The question to me is whether LS is in on it or not. To me Kevin is certainly scum. Nurse would not make sense to me game design wise and his voting has been very off as well. I don't have the time to scroll back through everything right now and if I had the time and the internet speed I would quote everything, but I'm pretty sure Kevin wasn't on any of the scum wagons expect SGB, which he was the final vote on and thus ended the day early. He voted for Lyner and Rhizo if my memory serves me correctly, both of whom have been confirmed townies now. If that isn't hinting to something wrong, then I don't know what is. I on the other had have been on 4 wagons, which include all scum and iSoc. I won't role claim until it is absolutely necessary, because quite frankly it's the only thing that's keeping me in the game. As soon as the mystery around me is cleared, scum have no reason to keep me alive. 

 

As I see it now WP and FS are town, purely based on their neighbor status and SLMK turning up scum (also I think it was WP who was investigated, so that extra clears him. 

CoD is very likely town seeing how he has voted so far. 

Finster roleclaimed Roleblocker and I'm inclined to believe him

This leaves Kevin who I suspect is scum and LS who I'm not sure what he is. In case we do successfully lynch Kevin and this game continues, he's probably scum, if the game ends with  Kevin's lynch in that scenario, he was town. 

 

Seeing as we have no informative PR left with the information that is available, I see no reason to wait for anything to happen, so I'm voting now

 

Vote: KevinH

 

 

Seriously? Still on about me? You'd think you'd have learned I'm town by now <_<

 

EDIT: I'm going through everything and will give me thoughts in a day or so

From most townie to least

  • LordSunday - protected by me and there was no kill
  • Wolfpacks - Investigated town by cop
  • FS108 - neighbor, but maybe 2 of 3 neighbors were scum
  • FinsterBaby - roleblocker, but nothing really to prove it
  • Chaplain of Death - vanilla townie
  • Yehom - no claim

Vote: Yehom
 

From most townie to least

  • LordSunday - protected by me and there was no kill
  • Wolfpacks - Investigated town by cop
  • FS108 - neighbor, but maybe 2 of 3 neighbors were scum
  • FinsterBaby - roleblocker, but nothing really to prove it
  • Chaplain of Death - vanilla townie
  • Yehom - no claim

Vote: Yehom

 

 

 

This is a pretty accurate list in my opinion. I still want to finish my notes however before I make any official decisions.

Placing Kevin I would put him probably below FB at this moment. Yehom is absolutely correct that Kevin could've strategically not performed a kill to increase his town bona fide. At this point WP and myself are the two most confirmed town, so it is very believable that scum would have went after one of the two of us.

 

^

This is before I've even starting making my notes of behaviors from D1 to now. I may see something that changes my mind in that time.

 

Also, I overlooked it on accident but it just registered that Yehom's indication to a role rang quite scummy. Here's the quote:

 

 

 

I won't role claim until it is absolutely necessary, because quite frankly it's the only thing that's keeping me in the game. As soon as the mystery around me is cleared, scum have no reason to keep me alive.

 

Why, if we could win today, would you not provide information that could identify the final scum and win the game? I would very much like to see an explanation for that.

Well I hope at least CoD, FS and WP are sensible enough to see through the BS. All the evidence is on the table. Look at how the game has gone so far, look at how people have played, have voted and have reacted so far. See some of the weird ass statements that people have made and see which of those make sense. I guarantee you all my actions should point me to being at least more town than Kevin, minimum.

 

That LS post my god. I write a whole post about how people should look at my post compared to Kevin's and LS best and only repondses are 1) I'm 100% confirmed town by my own logic, 2) you should role claim because out of that entire post I try to find something remotely close to doubtful. I suggest you read my post again. Think hard about what is in it and then tell me if what I'm playing this right or not. Roleclaiming just to roleclaim is silly and is exactly the reason why all the important PR's are gone now. Tell me what part of my statement is false is this current scenario.

 

Also can we get a rain check on Finster? Because we can use all the townie votes we can get.

Well I hope at least CoD, FS and WP are sensible enough to see through the BS. All the evidence is on the table. Look at how the game has gone so far, look at how people have played, have voted and have reacted so far. See some of the weird ass statements that people have made and see which of those make sense. I guarantee you all my actions should point me to being at least more town than Kevin, minimum.

 

That LS post my god. I write a whole post about how people should look at my post compared to Kevin's and LS best and only repondses are 1) I'm 100% confirmed town by my own logic, 2) you should role claim because out of that entire post I try to find something remotely close to doubtful. I suggest you read my post again. Think hard about what is in it and then tell me if what I'm playing this right or not. Roleclaiming just to roleclaim is silly and is exactly the reason why all the important PR's are gone now. Tell me what part of my statement is false is this current scenario.

 

Also can we get a rain check on Finster? Because we can use all the townie votes we can get.

 

LS was investigated town by the cop as well, so while perhaps not 100% hes pretty high up there. As for Finster, he claimed to have role blocked SBG (the Ninja) on the night of the no-kill, I'd say that's a pretty clear indication of his towniness. The fact that KevinH put Finster so low on his list like that would seem to indicate to me that he's setting up doubt so that he can try to stay off the scum hunt radar.

 

Side note about Kevins claim. He claims to have protected LS last night, while I get that LS is essentially confirmed (as much as one can be without being an innocent child), he's also a VT if I remember correctly. I'm curious why he wouldn't have protected our one remaining claimed power role (Finster with RB). Obviously doesn't prove anything but its a bit curious. 

 

Well I hope at least CoD, FS and WP are sensible enough to see through the BS. All the evidence is on the table. Look at how the game has gone so far, look at how people have played, have voted and have reacted so far. See some of the weird ass statements that people have made and see which of those make sense. I guarantee you all my actions should point me to being at least more town than Kevin, minimum.

 

That LS post my god. I write a whole post about how people should look at my post compared to Kevin's and LS best and only repondses are 1) I'm 100% confirmed town by my own logic, 2) you should role claim because out of that entire post I try to find something remotely close to doubtful. I suggest you read my post again. Think hard about what is in it and then tell me if what I'm playing this right or not. Roleclaiming just to roleclaim is silly and is exactly the reason why all the important PR's are gone now. Tell me what part of my statement is false is this current scenario.

 

Also can we get a rain check on Finster? Because we can use all the townie votes we can get.

 

LS was investigated town by the cop as well, so while perhaps not 100% hes pretty high up there. As for Finster, he claimed to have role blocked SBG (the Ninja) on the night of the no-kill, I'd say that's a pretty clear indication of his towniness. The fact that KevinH put Finster so low on his list like that would seem to indicate to me that he's setting up doubt so that he can try to stay off the scum hunt radar.

 

Side note about Kevins claim. He claims to have protected LS last night, while I get that LS is essentially confirmed (as much as one can be without being an innocent child), he's also a VT if I remember correctly. I'm curious why he wouldn't have protected our one remaining claimed power role (Finster with RB). Obviously doesn't prove anything but its a bit curious. 

 

 

The night SBG was blocked was by iSoc...

And FB is currently away per his post on the forums. My guess would be Kevin had no intention saving someone who may very well remain inactive through all of today. Also on that same note (including my first note) this means Finster is in fact no way proven. It's quite logical that scum would seek to knock out the most town at this point rather than PRs. Keep in mind WP, FS, and yourself are all claimed VTs along with me. With Finster inactive, that leaves Kevin and Yehom. If Yehom were scum it would be absolutely stupid of him to knock off Kevin at this point. It would seal his fate. On that same note however if Kevin were scum not performing a kill can help his gain town points as he now claims he's became the Doc.

We also should be addressing the fact of what our last scum is... Now that it's been confirmed Lyner was town, there are a couple possibilities that I could think of as to how the kill on KC occurred.

 

1) There is another strongarm in play on the scum team (highly unlikely as we killed one already)

2) The scum has a rolestop ability (more likely since if I'm not mistaken that roleblocks not only the target, but anyone targeting the target)

 

So playing #2 into account, that means the scum have/had a role-stop ability.

More than likely this is/was a limited ability, perhaps 2 or 3 shot. Now I don't see any reason they would have used it prior to when they killed KC, so now for the sake of this let's assume that they have 1 or 2 hits left. Last night, assuming Kevin is in fact the Doctor now, I would have expected scum to use that ability again to perform a kill and perhaps even incriminate Kevin further. The fact that this didn't occur leads me to two conclusions. The first is assuming Kevin is scum, the second assuming Kevin is town.

 

1) Kevin being scum is possibly a 2 or 3-shot rolestopper. This is of little concern to us at this point PR wise considering all but 2 people left in the game have claimed VT.

2) With Kevin as town but yet his save working, the scum most likely only had one hit with their rolestop. This means they could have been restricted to 1-shot from the start, which I think unlikely considering how heavy this game has been PR-wise, or it was one of the roles of a scum JOAT.

 

TW has had a scum JOAT with a rolestop ability before, so it is perfectly possible it is in play currently.

The reason I bring this up is because now we sit at a point where the scum could have a vig kill...

 

There is a lot of reasoning to going for Kevin all of a sudden. If scum knows Kevin is the Doc and they can eliminate him today, they can take out 2 townies without any way of being blocked.

 

My point and summary, be very careful before voting. If we end this day early in a bad way the town could be -3 come morning, and that's not somewhere we want to be.

Side note about Kevins claim. He claims to have protected LS last night, while I get that LS is essentially confirmed (as much as one can be without being an innocent child), he's also a VT if I remember correctly. I'm curious why he wouldn't have protected our one remaining claimed power role (Finster with RB). Obviously doesn't prove anything but its a bit curious.

 

My thought was that Wolfpacks and LordSunday were the most confirmed townies and that scum would try to kill one of the two.  I went with LordSunday.

 

FinsterBaby said he only had two shots and used them both.

 

Finster Baby: Town - RC Hagrid, 2-shot Roleblocker. I used my 2nd shot on KevinH last night, no result.

 

While I tend to believe the claim, there is room for doubt and if I were scum, I would have left him alive and tried for a night-kill on the most confirmed townies.

Sorry for the inactivity you will understand the reason why once i put the official announcement out, i have only one vote to put and the reason is i dont believe his RC

 

VOTE KevinH

The scum is most likely in this set

 

  • FS108 - neighbor, but maybe 2 of 3 neighbors were scum
  • FinsterBaby - roleblocker, but nothing really to prove it
  • Chaplain of Death - vanilla townie
  • Yehom - no claim

 

 

I don't have any way to prove my claim, other than that I did a successful protection last night.
The fact that Yehom jumped on me so quick makes me most suspect him.

If that was a quick jump for you then I want to know what is considered slow. I voted for you the previous day and wanted to vote for you the day before that too. Fortunate enough for you SGB was even more scummy

theres no proof you protected LS either, all i know is we lost a doctor and now have a suspect claim for a nurse who supposedly protected LS who in my opinion could be your scum buddy as Isoc said back in day 2, 

What are your thoughts FS?

my thoughts are more to Kevin but i can be mistaken and he thinks I am scum last I checked I am just an average joe townie  

Yehom keeps thinking I'm after him, I'm just avoiding ended the day early... How with ~48 hrs left, I'm honestly to the point of flipping a coin.

 

At various points throughout the entire game I've accused both Yehom and Kevin.

 

Kevin has been super inactive, which given the way this game had been going for a while made good sense for scum to do. D2 and D3 was almost entirely town lynching town. Plus with the death of Rhizo it was a perfect setup to kill off Lyner that day.

Now there's the all-to-perfect successful save of me last night. Scum most likely know my role, they also would know Kevin became doctor. Almost every person has roleclaimed at this point (I think Yehom is the only one who hasn't) and only FB and Kevin has PRs. If I remember correctly FB has used both his RBs, so he's to the point of being a VT. Plus he's inactive. Kevin would be the last standard PR (barring Yehom) so why wasn't he killed? Well...

 

Yehom would absolutely want to not kill Kevin anytime soon... Because it's his best chance of staying alive. That being said, nobody bit when he tried to again revisit the failed notion that I could be scum. Being as I'm one of two confirmed town, the best move would be to hit the active townie instead of the questionable PR.

 

What really speaks in Kevin's favor at this point which I would like to revisit... Kevin was RBed by FB the night KC was killed

Some key notes that happened that night:

1) Rhizo, confirmed Doctor, attempted to save KC that night.

2) Lyner, confirmed Voyeur, watched Rhizo that night and saw nothing.

3) KC, confirmed Cop, was killed.

 

Now unless Rhizo had a modifier where his saves only worked X% of the time, there had to be something that stopped his protection. Earlier in the day I spoke to the fact the scum could have a JOAT that had a rolestop ability, which would RB every person who visited the person targeted by the rolestop. Unless we've been wrong on our scum count (which is possible), that means Kevin (assuming he's scum) or SBG would have had to perform that action. SBG couldn't have as we learned since he was scum ninja. But since Kevin was RBed, he couldn't have been able to do that.

 

Like I said before, argument could easily be given any way... If I can't make up my mind by this evening I'll probably flip a coin

That whole post is just an examplatory essay on hipocrisy. You state it's a coin flip for you, yet your whole post is about what stinks about me and what works in Kevin's favor. Not once do you actually name the things that I've stated in my previous post. Things like voting patterns, accusations and how those have panned out. Things that are actually factual and set in stone, yet you venture into the realm of speculation to go out your way to protect Kevin for who knows what reason. It doesn't matter what I say or do, you're gunning for me anyway. I'll roleclaim before this day ends, because I know the roleclaim won't save me. Wonder who's going to disrcredit the claim first, Kevin or LS.

 

I'd like to reiterate this: who would vote for all 3 lynched scum members, a townie or scum? All 3 lynches were always well argumented on my part. I can only hope that something like that weights more than that speculative bs that LS just wrote down. I don't have the numbers but I'm willing to bet that both LS himself and Kevin have lynched more townies than scum.

I'm back - and still trying to make sense of what happened while I was away.

 

I was a 2-shot roleblocker. I used my first shot on Lord Sunday on Night 3 as there was still doubt about his towniness. Used my 2nd shot on KevinH on Night 4.

 

I'm not sure what else I could give you at this point. Ask me anyway. :)

The reason I'm going to have to flip at this point is because who you vote for depends on the point of view of the angle scum took last night. It plays perfectly against either of you. The question at this point is which is lying. I'll withhold my flip because you indicated you'll add substance to the conversation. Believe me, I'm very much just as suspicious of Kevin as I am of you.

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