655 replies to this topic

[Commander Shepard]

If anything the sequence of events at that time make killgor and CS look scummier then it does Rafay.

 

Possibly, it doesn't point one way or the other much like many of the things I seen so far.

It is hard to say what is scummy, scummy can be anything and if it is anything how do I determine if it is scummy or not.

Was killgor scummy after he unvoted and then went on to vote as other make out? I don't know, all I know is that found his answers lacking.

Lacking answers could be seen as scummy.

KevinH could be seen as scummy, I don't know if I see anything particular scummy about him.

Your scummy is different than others peoples scummy, Nerau thinks/thought me and Rafay were scummy together much like you.

There many scummy views and none that are conclusive.

 

The only reason I see for Rafay not stating what role he is if he is scum or a normal townie.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Okay, Martino, since the information advantage angle does not impress you, here's another reason to lynch Rafay if he does not claim.

 

Due to his soft-claim we can be pretty sure that Rafay is either scum or a town PR. I at least can't see him being VT after that.

 

That means that with Rafay we have a 3/6 = 50% chance of lynching a scum, while with anyone else we only have 22.7% chance to lynch a scum.

[Martino]

Actually, while I strongly disagree, I can at least understand that you might want him to claim. However, I cannot understand that you still think it is even a decent idea to lynch him. He is a dead man. No matter what we do, he will not make it to the end of this game. If he is scum, then the other scum faction cannot afford to let him live (since they know he is either oposing scum or a powerrole). If he is a power role, then both scum faction cannot afford to let him live. Why would we get rid of our 22.7% chance of lynching a scum to lynch someone who is going to die anyway?

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Why would we get rid of our 22.7% chance of lynching a scum to lynch someone who is going to die anyway?

 

One reason would be that in lynching Rafay we would have a 16.7% chance to lynch the SK, which is more than twice the 7.6% chance if we lynch someone else.

 

If you consider how beneficial lynching the SK on Day 1 is to the town those extra 9.1% are an excellent reason to give it a shot.

 

The SK doubles the scum motivated murder rate at night and the SK cannot be killed in night 1. Leaving it up to the night killers to take care of the SK only ensures that he will kill at least twice. Compared to lynching him Day 1 we would probably be 2 townies down, likely including a town power role. I think we should definitely go for a 9.1% extra chance to prevent these horrors.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I've done some number crunching on what happens if everyone believes Rafay's claim, or at least acts as though its true. Specifically, I have looked into the claim that if town does not kill Rafay he is a dead man nonetheless because scum will.

 

I have assumed that:
- Rafay is not VT.

- Town does not lynch Rafay.
- The vig will not try to kill Rafay.
- The RB will not try to block Rafay.
- Scum will try to kill Rafay unless they are aligned to him.
- If Rafay is a goon, unless the other goon is lynched, Rafay will not perform their night kill.
- All else is assumed to be completely random.
 

It turns out that under these assumptions Rafay has a 20.5% chance to survive night 1. 16.7% of that is the chance that Rafay is the SK, 3.4% the chance that he is a goon while the SK gets lynched or blocked, and 0.5% the chance that he is a town PR while the SK gets lynched and the goon gets blocked.

 

Rafay's survival odds for night 1 would be about 1 in 5 so unless we lynch him I would not quite call him a dead man yet.

[Martino]

I've done some number crunching on what happens if everyone believes Rafay's claim, or at least acts as though its true. Specifically, I have looked into the claim that if town does not kill Rafay he is a dead man nonetheless because scum will.

 

I have assumed that:
- Rafay is not VT.

- Town does not lynch Rafay.
- The vig will not try to kill Rafay.
- The RB will not try to block Rafay.
- Scum will try to kill Rafay unless they are aligned to him.
- If Rafay is a goon, unless the other goon is lynched, Rafay will not perform their night kill.
- All else is assumed to be completely random.
 

It turns out that under these assumptions Rafay has a 20.5% chance to survive night 1. 16.7% of that is the chance that Rafay is the SK, 3.4% the chance that he is a goon while the SK gets lynched or blocked, and 0.5% the chance that he is a town PR while the SK gets lynched and the goon gets blocked.

 

Rafay's survival odds for night 1 would be about 1 in 5 so unless we lynch him I would not quite call him a dead man yet.

Well, the game will not end after night one. If he survives N1 because he can absorb a nightkill as the SK, he will die N2. So those 16.7% don't really matter. In the other scenario he survives because we lynch the SK. That seems like a pretty good scenario to me as well.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

If he survives N1 because he can absorb a nightkill as the SK, he will die N2. So those 16.7% don't really matter.

By that time we will probably have two more dead townies on our hand, one of which is likely a PR. Those deaths can be prevented by lynching him Day 1.

I found an error in my calculations. The correct odds for Rafay surviving night 1 are 23.2%. The following scenarios contribute to that:
- 16.7% that he is the SK
- 3.0% that he is a goon and the SK is lynched
- 3.0% that he is a goon and the SK is blocked
- 0.5% that he is a town PR, the SK is lynched and the goon is blocked

In the other scenario he survives because we lynch the SK. That seems like a pretty good scenario to me as well.

Not as good as you suggest though, as half of that scenario is due to the SK being blocked rather than lynched.

[killgor]

i don't know how you people got those numbers.

[Chaplain of death]

2 days and 5 hours until deadline.

[reign of terror]

From what I've seen, I'm inclined to believe Rafay and I don't think we should lynch him for today.  Maybe wait to see how the night goes before we decide.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

i don't know how you people got those numbers.

I calculated them as follows.

Under the given assumptions.

- 1/6 chance that Rafay is the SK -> 1/6 = 16.7% chance that Rafay survives
- 2/6 chance that Rafay is a goon, in which case
- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK -> 2/6 x 1/11 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives
- 9/11 chance that we lynch neither SK nor RB, in which case
- 1/9 chance that the RB blocks the SK -> 2/6 x 9/11 x 1/9 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives
- 1/6 chance that Rafay is the RB, in which case
- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case
- 1/10 chance that Rafay will block the killing goon -> 1/6 x 1/11 x 1/10 = 0.15% chance that Rafay survives
- 2/6 chance that Rafay is the vig or the dietician, in which case
- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case
- 1/9 chance that the RB will block the killing goon -> 2/6 x 1/11 x 1/9 = 0.34% chance that Rafay survives

In all other cases Rafay dies.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

That was supposed to have identation. Maybe this will work.

* - 1/6 chance that Rafay is the SK -> 1/6 = 16.7% chance that Rafay survives
* - 2/6 chance that Rafay is a goon, in which case
* - 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK -> 2/6 x 1/11 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives
* - 9/11 chance that we lynch neither SK nor RB, in which case
* - 1/9 chance that the RB blocks the SK -> 2/6 x 9/11 x 1/9 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives
* - 1/6 chance that Rafay is the RB, in which case
* - 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case
* - 1/10 chance that Rafay will block the killing goon -> 1/6 x 1/11 x 1/10 = 0.15% chance that Rafay survives
* - 2/6 chance that Rafay is the vig or the dietician, in which case
* - 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case
* - 1/9 chance that the RB will block the killing goon -> 2/6 x 1/11 x 1/9 = 0.34% chance that Rafay survives

[Euclid of Alexandria]

This editor sucks. Sorry about that. I think I figured it out now though.

 

- 1/6 chance that Rafay is the SK -> 1/6 = 16.7% chance that Rafay survives

- 2/6 chance that Rafay is a goon, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK -> 2/6 x 1/11 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives

- 9/11 chance that we lynch neither SK nor RB, in which case

- 1/9 chance that the RB blocks the SK -> 2/6 x 9/11 x 1/9 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives

- 1/6 chance that Rafay is the RB, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case

- 1/10 chance that Rafay will block the killing goon -> 1/6 x 1/11 x 1/10 = 0.15% chance that Rafay survives

- 2/6 chance that Rafay is the vig or the dietician, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case

- 1/9 chance that the RB will block the killing goon -> 2/6 x 1/11 x 1/9 = 0.34% chance that Rafay survives

[Lyner]

Kazio and Nerau where are you? 

[KevinH]

I love the numbers, I really do.

 

However, with 2 scum factions both wanting dead townies, I think there's a large chance that they'd both choose alternate targets hoping the other faction would make the kill on the known townie.  Also, the Mafia will consider that he might be the Serial Killer and not want to waste a shot hitting the immunity.  If he survived, it would be easy to lynch him with the justification that since he survived, he must be scum.

[Nerau]

if we are going to lynch why not go with the best oppurnity

 

is there a better move because as i see it nothing is easy so he survives the next day it doesn't guarantee that he is mafia 

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I love the numbers, I really do.

 

However, with 2 scum factions both wanting dead townies, I think there's a large chance that they'd both choose alternate targets hoping the other faction would make the kill on the known townie.  Also, the Mafia will consider that he might be the Serial Killer and not want to waste a shot hitting the immunity.  If he survived, it would be easy to lynch him with the justification that since he survived, he must be scum.

 

Rafay is not a know townie though. If he is scum that would only leave one scum faction that would want him dead. And if he is a townie than he is probably a PR and scum would not necessarily want to leave the information about his power role solely in the hands of the other scum faction.

 

Anyway, in order to do a calculation it is inevitable to make some assumptions. Your point would justify to say that Rafay's chance to survive is better than what the calculation says. However, I have for the purpose of the calculation assumed that the vig won't target Rafay. In reality he very well might. That would decrease his chances of survival. Therefore these two issues will balance each other out to some extent and the result of the calculation is probably still a decent estimate.

[Kaziocore]

Kazio and Nerau where are you? 

I like how you posted fluff to appear active. Any insights?

 

 I think Rafay is not an SK.

 

I also think Rafay should be lynched if he fails to roleclaim because

 

1) If he is scum, fantastic

2) If he is town and the mafia or sk killed him, they will receive his identity.

They can freely roleclaim Rafay's unknown role.

[Kaziocore]

MOD: Rafay should be prodded

[Lyner]

Kazio and Nerau where are you? 

I like how you posted fluff to appear active. Any insights?

 

 I think Rafay is not an SK.

 

I also think Rafay should be lynched if he fails to roleclaim because

 

1) If he is scum, fantastic

2) If he is town and the mafia or sk killed him, they will receive his identity.

They can freely roleclaim Rafay's unknown role.

 

Still better than nothing at all, don't you agree?

 

 

I'm waiting for rafay's response, but oh well here we go:

I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself, and it's still day one  

And there is the possibility that it was a bad play and now he's stuck. I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we only suspect rafay, nobody else.

I think that's all for now, I'll still gunning for the ones that try to stay under the radar