655 replies to this topic

[Commander Shepard]

Uhm, what? If killing Rafay would be an excellent scum play, it would be a terrible idea to lynch him. We would be doing exactly what the scum wants to do. Why would they care whether they kill him or we lynch him? In fact, if we lynch him, they will get to kill another townie tonight. So they would prefer that.

 

As for him not claiming this early if he indeed has a power role. What makes you think he would be more likely to fake claim early? The moment he claimed powerrole, he signed his death warrant. As a pro town power role, it would be in his best interest to at least make sure we don't waste a lynch on him. As a scum, he would gain very little by making a fake claim that early. Moreover, if he fake claimed, he could have just claimed cop and tried to get the real cop to come out. That way the scum could at least eliminate the cop tonight.

 

Anyway, the most important point is not that I think he is more likely to be a power role than scum. The point is that regardless, the other scum faction will have to kill him off at some point. So there is no reason for us to take a gamble. Sure, if they kill him and he is a pro town power role they will know that role is dead. But if they randomly kill someone else they could also hit a power role. So we can't put too much trust in roleclaims anyway.

 

Which is why he should state what power role he is.

And if he lying the player with the actual power role should not come out.

Now we wait.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Martino, if you would actually have a good argument you would not need to quote me out of context like that. I guess you don't have a good argument though.

Unless Rafay makes a real claim, killing him is the best play for both town and scum, BECAUSE OF THE INFORMATION. Luckily town gets the first turn and can thus deny the scum their play. Let's not waste that chance. We probably won't get a second one.

I agree that a scum nor a town power role would have a good reason to claim prematurely. So, whatever Rafay's alignment, he definitely made a bad play. My best guess is that he panicked when he was under some pressure. Although that could happen to a player from either alignment, I would still sooner expect it from a scum than from a town power role. The reason being that an honest town power role would probably already have given some thought to the circumstances under which he would claim. For a lying scum it would more likely be a spur of the moment decision, which is more prone to error.

Anyway, it seems as though despite yours and killgor's lack of reason on this subject, there will probably be enough players that agree with the logic of my reasoning here. Unless I am mistaken Nerau, KevinH, Kaziocore, Commander Shepard and myself have already said that Rafay should claim a role. If Rafay does not claim of his own initiative I would hope that before the day ends those players will force him to do so with their vote. If he still doesn't claim when his lynch is imminent then he can not be a townie power role as those would definitely claim rather than be lynched.

[Martino]

if I actually had a good argument? Have you even been reading your own posts? You first state that there are serious cons to letting Rafay live if he has a power role. In the next post you say that it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him. 

 

My argument is plain and simple. Rafay is a dead man. He might be beneficial to the town, he might be harmful. He is definitely harmful to one of the scum factions. Therefore, it is more important to that scum faction to kill him than it is to us. Therefore, we should not do their work for them. 

 

In addition, I don't want him to claim a specific role, because it would make it easier for the scum to decide what to do. If he is a cop, they will want to kill him. If he is a roleblocker or vig they might want to let him live for now. Regardless whether he is a cop, roleblocker or vig, we want him to live. Therefore, getting that information out in the open does almost nothing for us, but it greatly helps the scum make their decisions.

 

Finally, in this set-up we cannot completely trusts roleclaims after night 1. It does not matter if Rafay is the one getting night killed or anyone else. The scum could kill one of our power roles and then they could fake claim. Therefore, we cannot completely trusts someone who claims simply because there is no counter claim. For this point it does not matter whether the one getting nightkilled is Rafay or someone else. As a result, lynching our powerrole simply to prevent the scum from getting the opportunity to fake claim makes no sense.

[Xx Karl xX]

Hey there everybody! I see I have a lot of reading to catch up on so i'll try to read through everything and eventually put my two cents in haha. Hopefully that'll be either tonight or sometime tomorrow

[Commander Shepard]

Rafay is a dead man, so why does it make any difference knowing his power role.

Whatever his power role is, he will be night killed.

If the Scum night killed him then they could attempt to claim his role if he is a townie afterwards and we would have nothing to say against it.

If Rafay tells us what his role is then we can use it to possible prevent/defend against false claims by scum.

The best solution is for Rafay to state what his power role.

The argument that if is he is a role blocker is ridiculous to make, they would kill him anyway.

And if he is scum and states a role such as the ones you think the scum will not NK then the other scum faction could think he is lying and NK him anyway.

If he gives an answer I don't think we should lynch him.

 

Also

 

it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him. 

No I don't think that is what he is trying to said.

I believe from my understanding it would be an excellent play for scum to claim a role for themselves that none of us would doubt as the guy(Rafay) who had the role was killed by the scum.

If Rafay doesn't tell us then he is probably the best candidate for lynching, but if he does tell, he is helping the town as we need this information before Rafay is silenced because he is going to be nightkilled and not lynched.

This information could provide critical for the town.

 

On one more note, why would they let the dietician live when arguably the dietician is hardly the biggest threat facing scum.

No ridiculous, Rafay will be killed for whatever he says or does not say.

[Lyner]

FYI there are 3 scums, 2 of them work as a team

 

 

And hello Karl

[KevinH]

Hello, Karl!

Do I really deserve your vote?

[Chaplain of death]

Vote count 1.07

 

 

reign of terror (0) -

Kaziocore (2) - Rafay, Killgor

Nerau (0) - 

killgor (2) - Imran Ehsan, Kaziocore

KevinH (2) - Xx Karl xX, Martino

Martino (0) – 

Rafay (3) - Nerau, KevinH, Euclid of Alexandria

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 
 

Not voting (3) - reign of terror, Lyner, Commander Shepard,

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Rafay is currently the wagon leader at L-4

Deadline is Thursday, May 9th, 2013 @ 21:00 PST

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 pages and yet no changes in voting. pfffffffft. whatever, posting a vote count so you don't have to go back so far for it anyway.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Thanks for replacing in Karl. I'm looking forward to your take on things.

 

You first state that there are serious cons to letting Rafay live if he has a power role. In the next post you say that it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him.

 

"You first state that there are serious cons to letting Rafay live if he has claimed a power role without saying which one. In the next post you say that, if Rafay does not claim his role, it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him to deprive them of that play."

Fixed it for you.
 

My argument is plain and simple. Rafay is a dead man. He might be beneficial to the town, he might be harmful. He is definitely harmful to one of the scum factions. Therefore, it is more important to that scum faction to kill him than it is to us. Therefore, we should not do their work for them.

 

Our work is to lynch the most likely scum and to prevent the scum from increasing their information advantage. Until Rafay claims his role both of these involve lynching him.

You claim that scum would want to keep the vig alive because he might accidentally kill townies. But then you also claim that they would want to kill the other scum faction. Need I remind you that the other scum faction might kill townies on purpose. DOES NOT COMPUTE.

 

In addition, I don't want him to claim a specific role, because it would make it easier for the scum to decide what to do. If he is a cop, they will want to kill him. If he is a roleblocker or vig they might want to let him live for now. Regardless whether he is a cop, roleblocker or vig, we want him to live. Therefore, getting that information out in the open does almost nothing for us, but it greatly helps the scum make their decisions.

 

It does not make their decision easier because their can not be any easier. Town power roles favor town - scum don't want that - scum kill town power roles (gaining information advantage in the process).

 

The idea that scum will do our work for us and keep our power roles alive is delusional. In case you didn't know... they have a different win condition.

 

Finally, in this set-up we cannot completely trusts roleclaims after night 1. It does not matter if Rafay is the one getting night killed or anyone else. The scum could kill one of our power roles and then they could fake claim. Therefore, we cannot completely trusts someone who claims simply because there is no counter claim. For this point it does not matter whether the one getting nightkilled is Rafay or someone else. As a result, lynching our powerrole simply to prevent the scum from getting the opportunity to fake claim makes no sense.

 

We may not be able to completely trust role claims after night 1 but, since there's a good chance that scum does not hit a power role in night 1, we can at least trust them to some extent. If we don't lynch Rafay however, and he dies tonight, then we can no longer trust them at all.

[killgor]

d1 it's kind'a stupid for scum to do a falseclaim considering we can get up to 3 people dead/night. after all, the sk is trying to kill them off too and with only 2 people in their faction it would be quite hard for the remaining one to pull it off. that's my 2 cents at least.

[Martino]

"You first state that there are serious cons to letting Rafay live if he has claimed a power role without saying which one. In the next post you say that, if Rafay does not claim his role, it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him to deprive them of that play."

 

Fixed it for you.

 

FYI, you typically use that phrase when your changes actually make a difference. Lynching a possible power role to deprive the scum of fake claiming is a terrible strategy. It is on par with mass suiciding to prevent the scum from killing us.

 

Our work is to lynch the most likely scum and to prevent the scum from increasing their information advantage. Until Rafay claims his role both of these involve lynching him.

 

Our work is to eliminate the scum. It does not matter whether we lynch them or they die during the night. Also, forcing a power role to claim does not exactly coincide with preventing the scum from increasing their information advantage. Who is a powerrole is the only information they do not have yet.

 

You claim that scum would want to keep the vig alive because he might accidentally kill townies. But then you also claim that they would want to kill the other scum faction. Need I remind you that the other scum faction might kill townies on purpose. DOES NOT COMPUTE.

 

Yeah, this is where you show that you haven’t even read most of my posts. I did absolutely not claim that they want to keep the vig alive because he might kill a townie. I said that if Rafay is the cop, they must kill him. However, if he is the vig or roleblocker, they might let him live for a while. They might do that to either confuse us or because they hope the other scum faction kills him. 

 

It does not make their decision easier because their can not be any easier. Town power roles favor town - scum don't want that - scum kill town power roles (gaining information advantage in the process).

 

As I said, you might want to actually read some of my posts before replying to them. I have already explained this before. Anyway, the main point is that there are two scum factions. Yes they want to kill the powerroles. However, they would prefer to not use both their NK on the same target. If Rafay is the cop, it will definitely be worth two nightkills. So they won’t worry about possible wasting a nightkill and they will target him. If he is the roleblocker or vig, they might not necessarily want to target him tonight. They could hope that the other scum faction kills him while they get rid of another townie. As long as Rafay’s powerrole is not known, it forces the scum to take a guess. Do they target Rafay and risk having both nightkills target the roleblocker/vig or do they target someone else and risk having the cop alive for another night?

 

The idea that scum will do our work for us and keep our power roles alive is delusional. In case you didn't know... they have a different win condition.

 

 

Actually, their win condition is only partly different. Just like us, the mafia needs to kill the SK and just like us the SK needs to kill the mafia. As I have explained quite a few times now, no matter whether Rafay is a powerrole or a lying scum, the other scum factions knows that he is one of the more dangerous players out there for them. For us, he is actually beneficial to the town if he is a powerrole, or he is one of the bigger dangers out there if he is scum. That simply means that it is more important to the scum that he dies than it is to us.

So they are not doing our work for us, they are doing their own work. Which might coincide with our work (if he is the other scum faction) or it might be very harmful to our cause (if he is a powerrole).

 

We may not be able to completely trust role claims after night 1 but, since there's a good chance that scum does not hit a power role in night 1, we can at least trust them to some extent. If we don't lynch Rafay however, and he dies tonight, then we can no longer trust them at all.

 

 

If you want to trust a role claim after night 1, you are simply taking a gamble. You are praying that the scum did not kill that role. There are 3 powerroles among 12 players. In addition, there are two night kills. That means that the odds of a powerrole being NKed are a little over 50%. Trusting a roleclaim after night 1 is a huge gamble even if it is not Rafay that got NKed.

 

 

[Commander Shepard]

This is getting quite out of hand and I know Rafay was online last night.

 

 

Yeah, this is where you show that you haven’t even read most of my posts. I did absolutely not claim that they want to keep the vig alive because he might kill a townie. I said that if Rafay is the cop, they must kill him. However, if he is the vig or roleblocker, they might let him live for a while. They might do that to either confuse us or because they hope the other scum faction kills him.

Absolutely ridiculous, the vig is extremely dangerous for the scum, he could kill them without giving them a chance.

The roleblocker is also somewhat dangerous and can protect/save townies from being nightkilled.

What can the Dietician do? His own power could get him lynched.

 

No, if anything the Dietician is the one they will let live, not that they would let him live.

You make it sound as if he is an unstoppable force that can not be stopped, he is not.

 

Rafay could be scum.

He is not definitely town and he has done nothing to help the town yet, don't think about him living through the night confusing us.

This is confusing us and it will only continue to confuse us if he does not make a claim.

 

 

Trusting a roleclaim after night 1 is a huge gamble even if it is not Rafay that got NKed.

 

That's why we should not trust them fully, I certainly would not trust them.

If we don't vote Rafay we would be voting someone else who could be town.

Rafay could be a town power role but he could also be scum, if I had to make a statement as to who was the player who was most likely to be scum, it would be Rafay.

 

 

 

Vote Rafay

[Martino]

Wow.The cop is less dangerous for the scum than the vig/roleblocker? Just wow.

[Commander Shepard]

I'm not going to discuss the Dietician any further until Rafay decides what he is going to do, for certain reasons.

[Commander Shepard]

Though this has little to with those reasons.

The Dietician doesn't have too many plays and if he decides to act on them he opens himself up to been NK or Lynched.

[Imran Ehsan]

I don't want to role-claim especially so early on in the game. I think I can affect the night today. If by my understanding of CoD's mechanics at least the town won't be at a disadvantage tonight.

 

If Rafay did not false-claim, then the above info is interesting. If he can affect night actions that means he is not the cop, as the cop can only investigate. That means he is either the Vigilante or the roleblocker. Since he also says the town wont be at a disadvantage, that means (to me) he is not the vigilante, as the vig has a good probability of killing a townie or another PR. That means he is the roleblocker. Of course, theres a chance the roleblocker can cause disadvantage to the townies if he picks the cop to roleblock but the chance of that is very slim (1/12). In view of these I will recommend not lynching Rafay as lynching him really does not help the town. Let the scum use their actions to take him out.

 

I also do not think Rafay false-claimed. If he was scum I dont see the benefits of false claiming on Day 1. It is much easier for the scum to false claim on day 2 or day 3 if they happen to kill a PR the previous nights. I think it was very very poor decision to reveal that he is a PR so early and with only .what..3 votes on him...so its just bad play on his part, which does not equal to being a scum.

[Commander Shepard]

There was I think 6 votes on Rafay when he revealed.

I don't particularly want to vote for Rafay as I think there is a potential usefulness for the town in keeping him alive.

 

There is too many variables.

I believe the question is how far will someone go to help the town, Rafay may have went all the way.

[Imran Ehsan]

There was I think 6 votes on Rafay when he revealed.

I don't particularly want to vote for Rafay as I think there is a potential usefulness for the town in keeping him alive.

 

There is too many variables.

I believe the question is how far will someone go to help the town, Rafay may have went all the way.

 

Not clear on what you mean by going all the way to help the town. If there were 6 votes then his hand may have been forced to reveal about the PR. Still poor play as he should have tried to defend himself against the accusations instead of role-claiming. I will go back and check how many votes he had. But still that does not id him as scum, as there are two scum factions. If Rafay is scum and claimed to be a PR that would mean he is doing that with knowledge that he will instantly become a target to be hit at night by the other scum faction. So he is just delaying being killed from the day to night. Not sure how that would help the scum.

[Imran Ehsan]

This is the post in question. Rafay went up to 6 votes (pretty fast bandwagon there by killgor and CS) but Euclid unvoted almost right away followed by CS. Rafay had 4 votes on him when he roleclaimed. So yeah he should have tried to defend himself without roleclaiming. If anything the sequence of events at that time make killgor and CS look scummier then it does Rafay.

[Commander Shepard]

He had 6 but then it went down to 4 which is when he post about him being important, he already had 4 before me and killgor voted him so us voting him were the reason for his revelation.

Perhaps he seen his name mentioned too many times and needed to say something.

 

By all the way I mean, Rafay has no power role and he is just an ordinary townie.

He thought he was close to being lynched or in the process of being lynched so he said something a normal townie could say when under the hammer.

"He is important to the town", saying that could potential save him from being lynched but someone else would need to be lynched instead.

Him not being lynched makes him a high target for scum, all the scum factions use their actions on him, so potentially none of the town power roles are dead going into day 2.

Though the vig could kill a power role and we could lynch a power role.