655 replies to this topic

[Commander Shepard]

Softclaiming is a null tell. Rafay is probably telling the truth.

 

I'll have to agree with Euclid on this.

The Scum now somewhat know Rafay is probably a power role, he should come out as to which power role he is because we already know he is as good as dead, so if he dies we will not know what he was and the scum could use this to their advantage. 

And to counter the claim of Rafay dragging an actual power role out, I urge the actual power role to not come out if Rafay is indeed lying.

[Rafay]

I don't want to role-claim especially so early on in the game. I think I can affect the night today. If by my understanding of CoD's mechanics at least the town won't be at a disadvantage tonight.

[Martino]

What exactly are we going to do with that information? What difference does it make whether he is going to claim Dietician, Vigilante or Roleblocker? I know it would make a difference as to what the scum might do. They can't allow the dietician to live, but might be willing to let the roleblocker live another day in the hopes of us lynching him.

[KevinH]

The Roleblocker has the same chance of blocking the Dietician or Vigilante as he does of blocking the Killing Goon or the Serial Killer. A case could be made for the scum letting the known Roleblocker live while they would rather take a chance on finding the other power roles. Also, the Mafia and Serial Killer can't communicate. It's in both their interests to kill 2 townies rather than 1, so each faction might hope the other kills the known townie and target somebody else. In fact, they would ideally like to eliminate each other.

All that is to say that I don't think an unspecific townie role claim guarantees that player will killed in the night.

On the other hand, if you are scum with a few votes accumulating, what would you claim?

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Martino, if this were a regular game where we would find out Rafay's role and alignment if he is night killed I would agree with you and I would have already removed my vote. This isn't a regular game though. If Rafay does not claim a specific role then there are four possibilities.

1a. He is a lying scum and we don't lynch him. In this case we would be short of a scum lynch today, we would likely waste power role actions tonight and we would if he is the SK have an extra town loss tonight as well. He might still very well survive the night, especially if he is the SK, and whether he dies tonight or not, tomorrow we would still not know for sure whether he is lying or not.

1b. He is a lying scum and we lynch him. This is simply the best possible result we could hope for on Day 1, especially if he happens to be the SK who cannot be night killed tonight.

2a. He is telling the truth and we don't lynch him. He could perform his night action. However if he is killed tonight we would still not know for sure that he was telling the truth, while the scum that killed him would know and would certainly use that to their advantage. Neither would we get the result from his night action as he would not be around to tell us. And even if he does survive the night, since the town gets no information about role and alignment of the night kills, we would tomorrow still have no way to be sure about anything Rafay would claim happened during the night, nor about his own claim of role and alignment. The scum would have to use their night action on Rafay giving some protection to others, but I'd say the scum would happily do so to kill a power role.

2b. He is telling the truth and we lynch him. We would be short of one night action, lose his power role, and the scum would be able to use their night actions for something else. On the other hand we would prevent that the scum gain a valuable information advantage that they would use against us.

Now how to evaluate this. Of the options 1a and 1b where he is a lying scum lynching him would be most excellent and not lynching him would be most horrible. The two options 2a and 2b where he is telling the truth on the other hand both have there pros and cons. I guess its a matter of opinion how to evaluate those, but I would say that 2a where we don't lynch him still has some serious cons even when he is telling the truth.

Conclusion: when presented with these options, the best play is to lynch him.

This conclusion is especially valid as Rafay could change the option we have to our advantage by claiming a specific role as in that case no matter what happens during the night, if he is lying at least one of us will know and most of the cons of not lynching would evaporate.

So I ask you, if Rafay is indeed a power role, why would he put us in this predicament by not claiming a specific role? As Shepard noted, there is no point in keeping the specific role a secret as scum will know anyway when they kill him tonight. There is on the other hand plenty of reason to be specific as only then will town also have that information.

If Rafay is lying though, it is pretty obvious why he would not want to make his claim specific. If he would then their would after all be at least one of us that would know that he is lying.

There simply is no town motivation for not being specific.

Add to this the following. Rafay claimed very early in the day. If he was a true power role trying to keep his role secret he would have been much more likely to wait and see what happens. As the day progresses some people could very well have unvoted him for other reasons than him claiming or a larger wagon could have come up with someone else. So, why in the hell did he not wait with his claim until the dead line was much closer? I can so no reason for it and thus it just adds to my feeling that he is a lying scum.

Addi

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Hmm. I accidentally hit post before I was completely done editing that. I think my case is clear though.

[Commander Shepard]

Why would scum take the chance he might be the role blocker as the odds are he is likely to not be the role blocker, and instead either of the other two power roles which could harm the scum's game plan.

Those are the best odds available for any scum.

 

As far as I am concerned Rafay will probably be kill during the night, it is misguided for the scum not to take those exceptional odds.

[Lyner]

Sacrificing yourself for town is very pro-town, though it won't be fun

 

 

 

Still waiting on the replacement

[Kaziocore]

Softclaiming is a null tell. Rafay is probably telling the truth.

 

I'll have to agree with Euclid on this.

The Scum now somewhat know Rafay is probably a power role, he should come out as to which power role he is because we already know he is as good as dead, so if he dies we will not know what he was and the scum could use this to their advantage. 

And to counter the claim of Rafay dragging an actual power role out, I urge the actual power role to not come out if Rafay is indeed lying.

Yeah Rafay needs to role claim now. Since he softclaimed, It would hurt the town more.

Scum would already know that Rafay is a PR

[Martino]

The Roleblocker has the same chance of blocking the Dietician or Vigilante as he does of blocking the Killing Goon or the Serial Killer. A case could be made for the scum letting the known Roleblocker live while they would rather take a chance on finding the other power roles. Also, the Mafia and Serial Killer can't communicate. It's in both their interests to kill 2 townies rather than 1, so each faction might hope the other kills the known townie and target somebody else. In fact, they would ideally like to eliminate each other.

All that is to say that I don't think an unspecific townie role claim guarantees that player will killed in the night.

On the other hand, if you are scum with a few votes accumulating, what would you claim?

This is all exactly why he should not specify which powerrole he has and why we should not lynch him. You should always put the opponent in a position where he can make a mistake. If he roleclaims, the mafia will know exactly what to do. Like you said, if he is the roleblocker they might very well let him live. However, if he is the cop, they want him dead, even if that means possibly having both nightkills target him. So by forcing him to claim, we will make it very easy on the scum.

 

On the other hand, right now they are in somewhat of a messy situation. They probably want him dead, but like you said both factions would prefer there to be two nightkills. So they will have to make the decision. Do they target Rafay and ensure a powerrole dies, but risk having only one night kill? Or do they target someone else, hoping that the other faction kills Rafay? If he is the roleblocker, the first decision is probably the wrong one. If he is the cop the second one is. So they are put in a situation where they could very well make a mistake.

 

In any case. Your eagerness to lynch a possible pro town powerrole goes completely against your normal follow the cop strategy. Normally you argue in favor of a no lynch on D1 because we might accidently lynch the cop. This time we have someone claiming to have a powerrole and you vote in favor of their lynch? 

[Martino]

Martino, if this were a regular game where we would find out Rafay's role and alignment if he is night killed I would agree with you and I would have already removed my vote. This isn't a regular game though. If Rafay does not claim a specific role then there are four possibilities.

1a. He is a lying scum and we don't lynch him. In this case we would be short of a scum lynch today, we would likely waste power role actions tonight and we would if he is the SK have an extra town loss tonight as well. He might still very well survive the night, especially if he is the SK, and whether he dies tonight or not, tomorrow we would still not know for sure whether he is lying or not.

1b. He is a lying scum and we lynch him. This is simply the best possible result we could hope for on Day 1, especially if he happens to be the SK who cannot be night killed tonight.

2a. He is telling the truth and we don't lynch him. He could perform his night action. However if he is killed tonight we would still not know for sure that he was telling the truth, while the scum that killed him would know and would certainly use that to their advantage. Neither would we get the result from his night action as he would not be around to tell us. And even if he does survive the night, since the town gets no information about role and alignment of the night kills, we would tomorrow still have no way to be sure about anything Rafay would claim happened during the night, nor about his own claim of role and alignment. The scum would have to use their night action on Rafay giving some protection to others, but I'd say the scum would happily do so to kill a power role.

2b. He is telling the truth and we lynch him. We would be short of one night action, lose his power role, and the scum would be able to use their night actions for something else. On the other hand we would prevent that the scum gain a valuable information advantage that they would use against us.

Now how to evaluate this. Of the options 1a and 1b where he is a lying scum lynching him would be most excellent and not lynching him would be most horrible. The two options 2a and 2b where he is telling the truth on the other hand both have there pros and cons. I guess its a matter of opinion how to evaluate those, but I would say that 2a where we don't lynch him still has some serious cons even when he is telling the truth.

Conclusion: when presented with these options, the best play is to lynch him.

This conclusion is especially valid as Rafay could change the option we have to our advantage by claiming a specific role as in that case no matter what happens during the night, if he is lying at least one of us will know and most of the cons of not lynching would evaporate.

So I ask you, if Rafay is indeed a power role, why would he put us in this predicament by not claiming a specific role? As Shepard noted, there is no point in keeping the specific role a secret as scum will know anyway when they kill him tonight. There is on the other hand plenty of reason to be specific as only then will town also have that information.

If Rafay is lying though, it is pretty obvious why he would not want to make his claim specific. If he would then their would after all be at least one of us that would know that he is lying.

There simply is no town motivation for not being specific.

Add to this the following. Rafay claimed very early in the day. If he was a true power role trying to keep his role secret he would have been much more likely to wait and see what happens. As the day progresses some people could very well have unvoted him for other reasons than him claiming or a larger wagon could have come up with someone else. So, why in the hell did he not wait with his claim until the dead line was much closer? I can so no reason for it and thus it just adds to my feeling that he is a lying scum.

Addi

I completely disagree that it is a horrible option if he is scum and we don't lynch him today. We are not the only ones that know he is either scum or a powerrole. At some point, the other scum faction will have to take him out. To be honest, they will have to take him out sooner rather than later. They can't risk him being the cop and finding out who they are, nor can they afford to let him live and allow him to kill them instead. We know there is a possibility he is bad for the town and a possibility that he is good for the town. The (other) scum faction knows that he is bad for them whether he is scum or town. It seems clear to me that it is far more in their best interest to kill him quickly than it is in ours.

 

Also, are you seriously saying that it would have serious cons to not lynch him if he has a pro town power role?

[killgor]

i see no cons to not lynching a power role euclid. actually, i see no cons to not lynching any town alligned player. what would your cons be? the only one i see is if he's the roleblocker and he blocks one of the power roles that are on our side. but even then he whould have done it with what he thinks the best interests of the town are in mind. but then again, that's going to be the dilema for the vig and for the roleblocker anyway.

 

on top of that, would you rather help the scum by lynching a power role or would you rather force them to night kill someone you know they need to?

 

anyway, i'm not saying that he is a power role, but i think it's a bit premature to face this dilema d1 before the first set of lynches and nk's had the chance to take place.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

The scum having to outguess each other whether the other faction will kill Rafay does not depend on him being specific or not. So that's no reason for Rafay to hold out.

Also, I'm not so sure that the scum wants to keep the role blocker alive. Sure the role blocker might block a town power role but:
1) if that power role is the vig inadvertently trying to kill a townie that would still save a townie.
2) the role blocker and the power role he blocked might later on put together what happened and provide the town with valuable information of confirmed power roles.

Nonetheless, even if they would want to keep the role blocker alive, I very much doubt they would throw away a chance to kill the vig or the dietician just for the debatable benefit of having the role blocker around. So, if Rafay is the role blocker this would actually be an argument for him to claim specifically. From that it follows that if he does not claim specifically the scum will be even more confident that he is the vig or the dietician. So, unlike your suggestion, they will not really be in a position where they can make a mistake. Given his unspecific claim killing Rafay would definitely be an excellent play for them, which is why we should not give them that chance and lynch Rafay ourselves.

Again, all that would change if Rafay comes up with a proper claim.

Finally, Martino, although you may disagree with me, you haven't been able to poke a serious hole in my logic, so your painting of KevinH as eager to lynch a possible town power role is unwarranted. In fact, from my reasoning, I find it pretty odd to see how unwilling you are to lynch a possible - dare I say likely - lying scum.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I completely disagree that it is a horrible option if he is scum and we don't lynch him today. We are not the only ones that know he is either scum or a powerrole. At some point, the other scum faction will have to take him out. To be honest, they will have to take him out sooner rather than later. They can't risk him being the cop and finding out who they are, nor can they afford to let him live and allow him to kill them instead. We know there is a possibility he is bad for the town and a possibility that he is good for the town. The (other) scum faction knows that he is bad for them whether he is scum or town. It seems clear to me that it is far more in their best interest to kill him quickly than it is in ours.

Of course they will want to kill him if we don't lynch him. If he is the SK though, he will survive night 1. If he is in either scum faction and the other scum faction is blocked though, he will survive night 1. If he is a goon and the SK gambles that he is town and that the goons will take care of him, he will survive night 1. So, even though scum is out to get him, there still is a very real possibility of him not being killed in night 1.

If they succeed however they will gain a huge information advantage over the town that they would not have if Rafay claimed specifically or, given his unwillingness to do so, if we lynch him ourselves.

This is the peculiarity of this setup. Reliable information is much harder to get than in a standard game. We can't afford the scum to learn more while we remain firmly in the dark.

Also, are you seriously saying that it would have serious cons to not lynch him if he has a pro town power role?

Yes. that's what I am saying. If we don't lynch him then the scum will likely kill him and learn which role he had, while the town would remain in the dark about that. Scum can then safely false claim his role. That is a situation that we most definitely don't want. Scum safely false claiming a power role is worse IMO than us losing a power role. Even if you disagree, it still sure as hell is a serious con of not lynching him even if he has a pro town power role.

Rafay can change this though by claiming his role. If he would then, even if scum kills him, they would still not be able to falsely claim his role. This is exactly why Rafay must claim his role and not be vague about it. Because if he doesn't the only sure way to get this information for the town is to lynch him.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I should have said: ...is worse IMO than us losing a power role that we'll likely lose in night 1 anyway.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

i see no cons to not lynching a power role euclid. actually, i see no cons to not lynching any town alligned player.

Refer to my posts and point out where exactly my reasoning is faulty. Otherwise this is just another one of your unsubstantiated statements.

what would your cons be?

Scum safely claiming a town power role.

on top of that, would you rather help the scum by lynching a power role or would you rather force them to night kill someone you know they need to?

Would you rather provide the scum with the option to safely false claim a town power role or would you rather make sure that the town gets the same information that scum do?

anyway, i'm not saying that he is a power role, but i think it's a bit premature to face this dilema d1 before the first set of lynches and nk's had the chance to take place.

Given the amount of night kills this setup can have, there's really no basis for acting as though we can take it easy because time is on our side. Time is not on our side. Until he claims specifically I consider it very likely that Rafay is scum and we should waste no time lynching him.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Also, killgor, Martino, Rafay, or anyone else who thinks there is any credibility to Rafay's claim. Please respond to the following as well.

From my #325:
"Rafay claimed very early in the day. If he was a true power role trying to keep his role secret he would have been much more likely to wait and see what happens. As the day progresses some people could very well have unvoted him for other reasons than him claiming or a larger wagon could have come up with someone else. So, why in the hell did he not wait with his claim until the dead line was much closer? I can see no reason for it and thus it just adds to my feeling that he is a lying scum."

Simply put, Rafay was at no imminent danger at the time of his claim. Explain that please.

[killgor]

it doesn't matter. if he is a townie he will most likely die tonight. if we lynch him some other townie will die tonight. maybe if we get lucky the sk or a scum will die but the odds for that are lower.

[Martino]

 Given his unspecific claim killing Rafay would definitely be an excellent play for them, which is why we should not give them that chance and lynch Rafay ourselves.
 

Uhm, what? If killing Rafay would be an excellent scum play, it would be a terrible idea to lynch him. We would be doing exactly what the scum wants to do. Why would they care whether they kill him or we lynch him? In fact, if we lynch him, they will get to kill another townie tonight. So they would prefer that.

 

As for him not claiming this early if he indeed has a power role. What makes you think he would be more likely to fake claim early? The moment he claimed powerrole, he signed his death warrant. As a pro town power role, it would be in his best interest to at least make sure we don't waste a lynch on him. As a scum, he would gain very little by making a fake claim that early. Moreover, if he fake claimed, he could have just claimed cop and tried to get the real cop to come out. That way the scum could at least eliminate the cop tonight.

 

Anyway, the most important point is not that I think he is more likely to be a power role than scum. The point is that regardless, the other scum faction will have to kill him off at some point. So there is no reason for us to take a gamble. Sure, if they kill him and he is a pro town power role they will know that role is dead. But if they randomly kill someone else they could also hit a power role. So we can't put too much trust in roleclaims anyway.

[Commander Shepard]

it doesn't matter. if he is a townie he will most likely die tonight. if we lynch him some other townie will die tonight. maybe if we get lucky the sk or a scum will die but the odds for that are lower.

It does matter.

If he claims a role and the town knows that role was claimed then the information could be useful down the line.

There is potential benefits to Rafay living if he is town, two scum may target to kill him which could potentially save at least 1 townie.