446 replies to this topic

[Imran Ehsan]

I am going to role-claim. I will also explain why I am role-claiming. 

 

I am the 2-shot Vigilante. I used one of my shots to take out Nerau last night. So the scum did not kill him.

 

Why am I role-claiming? Because there were no other kills in the night. Why were there no other kills. There are 3 possibilities:

 

1. Scum did not send in any kills

 

I dont see any reason why they will not. There are 10 townies against their 3 scum. There were no lynches on Day 1 so they need to kill at night to reduce the number of townies and also to take out the PRs. Theres a possibility they were inactive but I dont buy 3 scum going inactive all at once.

 

Another possibility is they assumed I as the Vig will make a kill and it will look like the scum killed the target. Therefore they didnt use their kill ability. However, I dont see any reason why this will help them. So its a very small probability that they went this way.

 

2. Scum tried to kill but failed

 

This looks like the best possibility to me. As there are no doctors or roleblockers in the game, this means there is a Jailkeeper in the game and he it gold on Night 1. Scum who was supposed to send in the kill was jailed and hence he could not kill any townies.

 

3. I am scum

 

Of course some may argue that I am lying and that I am in fact the scum who killed Nerau. If I was scum however, I would not reveal that it was I who killed Nerau. There is no need to, just to confuse the town. But I am listing it here as a 3rd possibility.

 

So why did I role-claim? Because of #2 reason. I believe there is a jailkeeper and he jailed the real scum. However, since I also killed in the night, he will think the guy he jailed last night is innocent. I am role-claiming now to give info to him that he in-fact stopped a scum-kill. What he does with this information is upto him, but he needed to have this info unless I get killed in the night.

 

In any case, this gives us some info to go over on this day.

 

Lets hear everyone else's thoughts.

[killgor]

i find it doubtful that nr1 is a possibility so i think i'll wait and see if someone indeed roleclaims jailkeeper. if nobody claims that though imran, i'm afraid there are high chances that your goose might be cooked.

 

but i have to say, if he roleclaims, wouldn't that leave us with the important power roles out in the open?

 

 

also, you forgot one other option (assuming you are the vig that is): both you and the scum targeted the same person.

[Alternate_Tree]

Interesting, another option that is the jailer hit the target of the nightkill, that would also protect them.  The problem with roleclaiming this early is that there are still 3 scum out there, and so knowing the identity of one of them and then roleclaiming leaves the other two to deliver the hit and take out the power roles so it's just a matter of the town deducing who the remaining scum are before too many people get night killed.  In my opinion the jailkeeper, assuming there is a jailkeeper, shouldn't roleclaim yet since that will just make you the next target.

 

There is also the possibility that Imran is a scum, this to me is plausible since they decided all the power roles, it would be easy to claim that you're the vigilante if you made sure there wasn't one to get on the town's good side, and no one can disprove you.  Also if the jailkeeper were to put you in jail or a tracker to track you for the next night, another scum could just deliver the hit and we'd all trust you.  Granted it is the second day and there is no real point to this since no one was lynched yesterday and Imran only got up to 2 votes.

 

In my opinion we should save further roleclaims for a day or so and see what people turn up.

[Commander Shepard]

Total illogical role claim.

Not to mention wasting a kill shot on a random inactive for no good reason.

And failing to mentioning the 4th option killgor brought up making this whole role claim slightly pointless as your message to the Jail keeper is uncertain as there may not even be a jail keeper or the jail keeper may have jailed a normal VT.

 

So your entire reasoning for this coming out event is massively flawed.

 

1) You're scum and you're trying to confuse the power roles that are in the game, there isn't actually a 2 shot cop in the game.

And you know this because you're scum and you helped choose the roles that the town were given.

Picking a role not in the game helps you, there is no dietician so you're relativity safe from being caught out.

 

2) You're who you say you're.

This is probably going to make you desperate as now the scum can easily just kill you during the next night.

And if they don't then you will kill because you don't know if they will kill you or not so you're don't to make a desperate kill on someone.

 

 

Personally I'd lynch you right now on the spot, because I'm calling total BS.

But obviously a majority will not support that, if only one person dies during the next night, then we should lynch you outright. 

I see this as nothing other than a clever play from scum until proven otherwise. 

[Commander Shepard]

I think you should use your next kill shot to prove yourself, obviously pick a scummy target.

Else you're probably more of a liability than anything, you have already proven by killing Nerau on Night 1 that you're a liability for the town. 

[Commander Shepard]

I messed up on the last line in the point 2) part.

Don't try to read it.

[Commander Shepard]

Damn I forgot the most important thing about this.

And it is funny you didn't mention it.

 

Why did you target Nerau?

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 2.01

Alternate_Tree (1) - Commander Shepard
Chaplain of death (0) -
Commander Shepard (2) - killgor, iSocialism
d3mon (1) - Lyner
DarkIceDragon (1) - Euclid of Alexandria
Euclid of Alexandria (1) - Alternate_Tree
Imran Ehsan (0) -
iSocialism (0) -
KevinH (0) -
killgor (0) -
Lyner (0) -
reign of terror (1) - KevinH

Not Voting (5) - Chaplain of death, d3mon, DarkIceDragon, Imran Ehsan, reign of terror

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Commander Shepard is the current wagon leader at L-5
Deadline is Sunday, July 7th, 2013 @ 13:50 EDT

[Lyner]

Interesting, Imran

 

Let's take a look at the probabilities:

1. Scum is inactive: Pretty unlikely but I can imagine the inactives being the mafia, pretty meh though

2. A jailer blocked the assasin: If this is true then we might have Vig, Jailkeeper, and Innocent Child and now you're likely to be killed tonight

3. You're scum: Then we might have Cop/Tracker, Jailkeeper, and Innocent Child. And you want to dig who's who

4. You killed the same target: not much information for us, mafia gains good information

 

If you're lying then good, we just need to search for the other two, if you're telling the truth then we will have higher chance of hitting scum today

So I'd prefer to let him live today and lynch other people

[Commander Shepard]

He can only live under conditions, if you don't tie him down then we will know none the better what side he is on.

As such if there is only 1 kill in the next night Imran should be lynched outright. 

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I really can't see a reason for scum not to use their NK. Neither can I see scum Imran sacrificing himself just for a small chance that it might out a PR. So in my opinion either we have a jailkeeper that jailed the killing goon or their target, or otherwise the scum and Imran both targeted Nerau. In either case that would mean that Imran is the vig. It also means that his role claim teaches us basically nothing and must thus be classified as an unfortunate mistake. Also, I agree with CS: had I been the vig myself I would not have used one of my shots on a 25% chance in Night 1. Let's hope our other PRs use their power more wisely.

[Kaziocore]

reign of terror is replaced by ccabal86

[d3mon]

I have to say that Imran's claim is a bold one. While, this has the possibility of identifying one scum, it would also lead to the power roles becoming very easy targets. Anyhow, I look forward to seeing how this develops.

 

Also, Imran gets townie points from me for trying to stand out of the crowd and actively scum hunt.

[Imran Ehsan]

OK to address some of the points:

 

1.  I am not asking the jailkeeper to roleclaim today. In fact, that will be a very bad play. I just gave him this information as otherwise he would not have known.

 

2. Why did I not hold back my kills? Because there is a very high probability I will get lynched or killed in the night. It is almost pointless holding on to my kills and hope I survive till the end-game where I can use my kills to make a difference. No. My stance has always been inactive townies are bad for the town and when town dithered and  argued and basically did no scum hunt on Day 1 and ended up not lynching, it was time for me to take out one of the inactives.

 

3. Why did I chose Nerau? Because there were 3 people voting for him at the end of the day. And if Nerau turned up scum, it would have given us the most info from the voting records. Another choice was DarkIce but CS's switch of vote at the end there was pretty interesting. I wanted to see if Nerau turned up scum..that will mean theres a good chance CS is scum.

 

4. I dont expect to live through too many days. I will use my last shot to take out another guy tonight unless the jailkeeper stops me. In any case, I want the town to scum hunt and not sit around and dither. So I will be using my shots early at targets which will give info to the town.

[Imran Ehsan]

By the way for those arguing that Nearu was targetted by Mafia, just that argument coming from you makes me almost sure you are one of the scum.

 

Why would Mafia hit Nerau? He was one of the most inactives on Day 1. There is almost 0 probability that Nerau was targetted by the scum as well as me.

[Commander Shepard]

In my view the best option was to take the chance of surviving through the night.

There is low chance of being killed in the game during the night compared to other games.

I switched my voting on Nerau because my initial vote on him was always going tot be temporary in my mind, especially since he didn't post in response to the votes.

 

 By the way for those arguing that Nearu was targetted by Mafia, just that argument coming from you makes me almost sure you are one of the scum.

 

Why would Mafia hit Nerau? He was one of the most inactives on Day 1. There is almost 0 probability that Nerau was targetted by the scum as well as me.

So the flaw in your reasoning for coming forward makes people a target for you.

And since when did the scum ever avoid hitting an inactive.

Below is my take on it, do you accept that as a possibility?

 

And failing to mentioning the 4th option killgor brought up making this whole role claim slightly pointless as your message to the Jail keeper is uncertain as there may not even be a jail keeper or the jail keeper may have jailed a normal VT.

 

This all smells dirty, the Jailkeeper if there one should not do anything about this until we at least know what side Imran is on, hence Imran has to die for the info to earn credit.

And even then it is questionable how true it is, but if we're desperate and have no other leads then perhaps we should lynch that person he Jailed on Night 1 given that Imran is revealed to be not scum.

[Commander Shepard]

Of course if there was two kills during Night 2 then I would believe Imran is not scum.

Because if he was scum the one shot cop would not waste his only shot on limited info and I don't believe there would be a two shot cop seeing how Imran claimed that role.

[ccabal86]

Hi, I'm one of the replacements. I'll read up on things then post my thoughts.

[Imran Ehsan]

In my view the best option was to take the chance of surviving through the night.

There is low chance of being killed in the game during the night compared to other games.

I switched my voting on Nerau because my initial vote on him was always going tot be temporary in my mind, especially since he didn't post in response to the votes.

 

 By the way for those arguing that Nearu was targetted by Mafia, just that argument coming from you makes me almost sure you are one of the scum.

 

Why would Mafia hit Nerau? He was one of the most inactives on Day 1. There is almost 0 probability that Nerau was targetted by the scum as well as me.

So the flaw in your reasoning for coming forward makes people a target for you.

And since when did the scum ever avoid hitting an inactive.

Below is my take on it, do you accept that as a possibility?

 

There may have been flaws in my reasoning but it was not for the 4th option. The 4th option is so unlikely that it didnt even cross my mind when I proposed the 3 scenarios. As I said in my last post the probability of two factions hitting the same exact person is extremely low. Plus when you add in the fact that the targetted person was an inactive member on Day 1, the probability of scum hitting that target is almost 0.

 

Scum will always want to ensure that townies are dominated by inactives and people who make no attempt at scum hunting. This is a very clear strategy and I dont see any scenario where the scum will kill an inactive as opposed to an active (and probable PR) townie. The fact that you are denying this, makes me very suspicious of you.

 

 

 

And failing to mentioning the 4th option killgor brought up making this whole role claim slightly pointless as your message to the Jail keeper is uncertain as there may not even be a jail keeper or the jail keeper may have jailed a normal VT.

 

My message will be pretty useful to the Jailkeeper in fact. He now knows that the player he targetted last night is either sure scum or sure townie. He will just need to monitor the next couple of days play to find out which.

 

This all smells dirty, the Jailkeeper if there one should not do anything about this until we at least know what side Imran is on, hence Imran has to die for the info to earn credit.

And even then it is questionable how true it is, but if we're desperate and have no other leads then perhaps we should lynch that person he Jailed on Night 1 given that Imran is revealed to be not scum.

 

I never proposed the Jailkeeper to reveal himself and his target. My info was given to him, in case I died in the night. I really dont believe the Vig is a very pro-town character. I have a higher chance to kill townies as compared to hitting scum. So the best use of my ability is to reveal the little info I can to the town. Me being a Vig and killing people randomly on Day 4 or Day 5 doesnt really help the townies that much I feel.

 

 

Of course if there was two kills during Night 2 then I would believe Imran is not scum.

Because if he was scum the one shot cop would not waste his only shot on limited info and I don't believe there would be a two shot cop seeing how Imran claimed that role.

 

If there were 2 kills in the night, I would not have role-claimed.

[Imran Ehsan]

Also I am not sure where you got the 2-shot cop role from.