446 replies to this topic

[Lyner]

I think CS was just confusing 1-Shot Cop and 2-Shot Vig

[Commander Shepard]

Yeah I made a mistake on the roles, I though the shot part actually meant the number of shots(kills).

But the one shot cop doesn't even have any shots to fire, I'm calling the other guy the two shot cop.

Knowing what I know now I would not even call the first a one shot cop, it is basically the Dietician.

[Commander Shepard]

 There may have been flaws in my reasoning but it was not for the 4th option. The 4th option is so unlikely that it didnt even cross my mind when I proposed the 3 scenarios. As I said in my last post the probability of two factions hitting the same exact person is extremely low. Plus when you add in the fact that the targetted person was an inactive member on Day 1, the probability of scum hitting that target is almost 0.

 

I don't know what exactly the odds are but I know both are very unlikely to happen.

It is a question as to which unlikely event occurred, the fact you did not even think about the 4th option confuses me.

Scum target people with the lowest activity, if you don't think they do then you only need look at yourself.

 

Ignoring the mathematics, two separate factions could target the same individual for similar reasons at the same time.

~Reaching the same conclusion using similar logic for picking a target.

 

 Scum will always want to ensure that townies are dominated by inactives and people who make no attempt at scum hunting. This is a very clear strategy and I dont see any scenario where the scum will kill an inactive as opposed to an active (and probable PR) townie. The fact that you are denying this, makes me very suspicious of you.

 

I'm not sure what the scum want but I don't think that is exactly what they want, from what I gathered anyway.

Active townies are not a priority for them, perhaps more likely though.

Refer back to the last line of my point above.

I'm not denying anything, in fact this post is closest I come to denying it and I'm not denying.

 

 

If there were 2 kills in the night, I would not have role-claimed.

 

I was referring to Night 2.

 

 

By the way for those arguing that Nearu was targetted by Mafia, just that argument coming from you makes me almost sure you are one of the scum.

Overall you're very threatening to people who question it.

The quote above basically rings of "if you question me then I will kill you".

[Imran Ehsan]

Overall you're very threatening to people who question it.

The quote above basically rings of "if you question me then I will kill you".

 

Nope. Never said that.

 

I said anyone who argues that scum picked the same inactive target as me, is pretty likely making up arguments just for the sake of making up arguments and hence is likely scum.

 

Scum target people with the lowest activity, if you don't think they do then you only need look at yourself.

 

Ignoring the mathematics, two separate factions could target the same individual for similar reasons at the same time.

 

I am not scum so I dont see what you mean by looking at myself. I am pro-town so of course my actions will be in the best interests of the town..in this case, using my kill ability on an inactive townie who probably wouldnt have done much scum hunting (based off his last game too) and someone who had a chance of being a scum as well.

 

Similar reasons? Please explain how it benefits the scum to tick off an inactive townie. You are basing your whole argument off this point (and trying to set me up for a lynch) and I would like to hear this in detail.

[Commander Shepard]

I'm talking about your track history, it disproves that scum don't target people with the lowest activity. 

I'm not going to advocate for you to be lynched today, but if there is no way to prove you're town on Day 3 then you should be the first 1 lynched.

 

I'm almost certain you're scum, how you conduct your defensive stance is reminiscent for me.

 

 Nope. Never said that.

 

I said anyone who argues that scum picked the same inactive target as me, is pretty likely making up arguments just for the sake of making up arguments and hence is likely scum.

 

You did not say that quote I used in the last sentence so you do not need to say you didn't say it because I made it clear that you did not.

However what you said basically translates to that.

 

It is not an argument for the sake of argument, there is a fourth possibility that you completely chose to ignore and continue to dismiss.

You refusal to acknowledge it as unreliable information for the Jail keeper(if there is one) only hurts the town.

I can think of a couple reasons as to why you're so against it.

 

 

Similar reasons? Please explain how it benefits the scum to tick off an inactive townie. You are basing your whole argument off this point (and trying to set me up for a lynch) and I would like to hear this in detail.

 

I would have to ask you that question as scum picking off an inactive is not something unknown for you.

In my opinion scum would only do it to make sure the game doesn't have low activity towards the end because only the largely inactive's are left, they want to make it as entertaining as they can, for themselves.

 

 

I am hoping to set you up for a lynch but not today, I will gladly take credit for setting you up for a lynch on day 3 if there is no way to prove you're town.

[Chaplain of death]

Just an idea, but if there is a jailer perhaps they should jail imran to preserve his other night kill for another night and make sure hes not killed since there aren't any real great targets right now. 

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Actually, it's far from impossible for scum to have hit the same target as Imran. The scum had 10 possible targets, one of which was targeted by Imran. The chance for them to hit the same target was therefore 10% which may not be a large chance but certainly it's a possibility.

The only other realistic scenario is that we have a jailkeeper that prevented the scum's NK. Until a jailkeeper flips or claims we can't know that we have one though. In fact, since it's quite a powerful role I wouldn't expect the scum to chose it. Let's say for argument's sake though that there is a 50% chance that they did. Imran, Nerau nor the jailkeeper can have been their target. That leaves 10 targets for the jailkeeper, one of which was the killing goon and one of which was the killing goon's target. The resulting chance would thus be 0.5 * 2/10 = 10%, exactly the same as for the previous scenario.

Conclusion: Either scenario is equally (un)likely and other than to the jailkeeper, if we have one at all, Imran's role claim doesn't really provide any useful information. We have nothing more to go on than we had before the claim.

[Imran Ehsan]

In my opinion scum would only do it to make sure the game doesn't have low activity towards the end because only the largely inactive's are left, they want to make it as entertaining as they can, for themselves.

 

This is a ridiculous reason. Scum wants to win the game. The odds are heavily against them at this point (10 vs 3) and you think their concern is to make it entertaining towards the end? In almost every game I have played so far, one of the most active players and experienced players were targetted by scum on Day 1. I have not yet seen a scum hit an inactive on Day 1.

 

Vote: Commander Shepard

 

Your reasons are flimsy and I am pretty sure you are scum.

 

he only other realistic scenario is that we have a jailkeeper that prevented the scum's NK. Until a jailkeeper flips or claims we can't know that we have one though. In fact, since it's quite a powerful role I wouldn't expect the scum to chose it. Let's say for argument's sake though that there is a 50% chance that they did. Imran, Nerau nor the jailkeeper can have been their target. That leaves 10 targets for the jailkeeper, one of which was the killing goon and one of which was the killing goon's target. The resulting chance would thus be 0.5 * 2/10 = 10%, exactly the same as for the previous scenario.

 

Your scenario ignores the case that scum picked an inactive to kill. So the probability of the Vig and scum hitting the same target is much lower than 10%.

 

The info I provided by my role-claim will be of use to the jailkeeper, not to you at the moment. This has already been explained in my previous posts. I am pretty sure the scum chose a jailkeeper so I am giving him as much info to id the scum as possible from the beginning. This is a much better scenario then going for another random lynch on Day 2 with 0 info whatsoever as town dithered to lynch on Day 1.

[Commander Shepard]

 

This is a ridiculous reason. Scum wants to win the game. The odds are heavily against them at this point (10 vs 3) and you think their concern is to make it entertaining towards the end? In almost every game I have played so far, one of the most active players and experienced players were targetted by scum on Day 1. I have not yet seen a scum hit an inactive on Day 1.

 

Well you did exactly that, you targeted one of the most inactive players on Night 1 in a previous game.

Almost everyone in the game posted more in that thread than the player you targeted. 

A player that even apologized for inactivity, that you targeted. 

 

If what you said is true you would targeted at least one of the top 5 posters(scum hunters).

Using a scale and comparing it to this game that player was around the same region Nerau was.

[Commander Shepard]

And a player that has been replaced in this game and didn't even post yet.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Your scenario ignores the case that scum picked an inactive to kill.

My scenario ignores that because I don't think it's true. As CS already pointed out you yourself were a counter example in the previous game. A motivation for scum to NK an inactive might be to give the town as little information as possible.

So the probability of the Vig and scum hitting the same target is much lower than 10%.

So no, it really is about 10%.

[DarkIceDragon]

Finally...

 

Sorry guys, I'm having some RL constraints right now, so I won't be able to log in here enough to actively participate in the discussions, and stuff. I apologize, but I will log on every few days, and I'll vote for either the bandwagon leader, or a person based on the discussions. I won't be participating too much though, so sorry :/

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 2.02

Alternate_Tree (1) - Commander Shepard

ccabal86 (1) - KevinH
Chaplain of death (0) -
Commander Shepard (3) - killgor, iSocialism, Imran Ehsan
d3mon (1) - Lyner
DarkIceDragon (1) - Euclid of Alexandria
Euclid of Alexandria (1) - Alternate_Tree
Imran Ehsan (0) -
iSocialism (0) -
KevinH (0) -
killgor (0) -
Lyner (0) -

Not Voting (4) - ccabal86, Chaplain of death, d3mon, DarkIceDragon

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Commander Shepard is the current wagon leader at L-4
Deadline is Sunday, July 7th, 2013 @ 13:50 EDT

[Alternate_Tree]

The problem with someone jailing Imran to prove him innocent is that it will reveal the jailer as well to prove him innocent, and they can't be any more credible.  In the case that Imran isn't scum, the real scum could just target him or not deliver the kill and then everyone thinks the power roles are scum, and we lose them in the lynch and the next night kill and we're back to not knowing anything, but we've lost 2 power roles.

[Commander Shepard]

The biggest problem with jailing Imran is that it does not prove he is innocent. 

Jailing Imran should not even be an option for the Jail keeper assuming there is a jail keeper.

 

The best thing we can do wait and see what happens during Night 2. 

[KevinH]

Unvote.

 

Welcome to the new guy.

 

I don't think it was scummy for Imran to claim.

He gave info to the jailkeeper if there is one.

He'll get his second shot off tonight so that is not lost.

 

Vote: Commander Shepard

 

He wants to lynch the possible vig so the second shot can't be fired.

[Commander Shepard]

You're misguided, I made clear I want to lynch Imran on Day 3 if he is not proven to be townie.

I'm not sure if your ignorant to that purposely or because you were not paying attention.

 

It's one thing to vote me, but to vote me for stupid reasons.

If I don't survive this ridiculous voting then I suggest remaining townies lynch based off who voted me. 

[Commander Shepard]

Just to show how funny that vote is, here all the times I indicated that Imran should not be lynched today.

 

#145

 I think you should use your next kill shot to prove yourself, obviously pick a scummy target.

Else you're probably more of a liability than anything, you have already proven by killing Nerau on Night 1 that you're a liability for the town. 

 

#150

 He can only live under conditions, if you don't tie him down then we will know none the better what side he is on.

As such if there is only 1 kill in the next night Imran should be lynched outright. 

 

#157

 Of course if there was two kills during Night 2 then I would believe Imran is not scum.

 

 

#165

 

I am hoping to set you up for a lynch but not today, I will gladly take credit for setting you up for a lynch on day 3 if there is no way to prove you're town.

 

 

#175

 The biggest problem with jailing Imran is that it does not prove he is innocent. 

Jailing Imran should not even be an option for the Jail keeper assuming there is a jail keeper.

 

The best thing we can do wait and see what happens during Night 2. 

 

 

That is 5 different posts indicating that I do not want to lynch Imran today, so where you got the idea I want to lynch him today is beyond me.

 

FOS: KevinH

[killgor]

actually, jailing imran would have some advantages only if scum didn't know what power roles we have. if we have a jailer and he jails Imran, if the scum don't night kill it makes him look suspicious. the 3 scum know exactly what power roles we have though while we don't.

 

also, i'm not sure how the blocking mechanics works. is there a specific scum that has to submit the NK or do they choose who does the kill during the night? cause if the first options is the right one, the jailer could just stop all the scum kills.

 

anyway, i don't think Imran is lying but that's just cause he doesn't have a lot to gain from roleclaiming. of course, i'm not ruling out the possibility that he is scum and he is betting on that to stay alive, but i feel like the chances of that happening are quite low.

[Kaziocore]

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