This is why No Lynch on Day 1 is stoopid. No wagons, no nothing. We have nothing to go on but make random guesses and random votes.
When I first read this, I thought it was one of the dumbest things I'd seen yet in here and started typing up a post about why it was dumb, but somewhere in the middle of my post I realized the value that a lynch could provide if we actually lynched scum; all the early people voting that scum would look very town. Had we lynched a townie, which is very likely what would happen, all we would have done was make more townie's look suspicious by jumping onto the lynch bandwagon. The example I have for this is I wanted to toss a vote onto R2V day 1. He came across scummy to me early on and I had my eye on him before the wagon started. The biggest reason I didn't vote for him was because had he ended up being town, I would have looked very scummy jumping onto that wagon late. I also was suspicious of a lot more people than just him, especially some of our more vet players who appeared to be pushing for lynching. My gut worked out well last round, suspecting those who were against day one no-lynch.
I am going to toss this out there and see what happens. This was my final day 1 groups:
1) Road2Victory, iSocialism, and killgor - Hadn't played with any of these guys before (and don't chat with any of them to really know outside mafia) so was working really hard to get a read on them. They were each high on my suspect list from their posting. I was willing to cut some slack based on day 1 fun, but if my feet were held to the fire where I had to vote, I would have jumped onto one of these bandwagons.
2) Electric Mango, Imran Ehsan, Spaztik Muffin, and S.amus - This was my next group of suspicious players. EM and Imran are experienced players while Spaz and S.amus I hadn't played with before so didn't really have a full read on them, but all four were tossing votes around and made my list of players to keep an eye on. With three top suspects on my board, I did lean town for each of these.
3) Lyner, Rafay, Robert2424, and KevinH - This was my group of experienced players who are pro enough to not give anything away if they are scum, but who I was less suspicious by their posting and voting. Lyner and Rafay were just active enough to stay under the radar, while Kevin and Robert were posting machines. Seemed like fairly normal behaviour for day one from each.
4) Big Ego and Ovidsidios - This was my least suspicious group. I might be a little biased because I invited them to play, but I've also chatted quite a bit with both and I have zero scum vibe from either of them.