BeeBs

I'm upset that we are on night three and still focusing on inactivity alone as the basis for our votes. I think we would be much better off using vote counts or how people have interacted. What do you all think?

Are you jumping to conclusions here? ElectricMango, did I miss a specification about what you detect? Did you find out your were prodded by scum or just prodded? I don't mean to cast any doubt on your character in the game, I'm just wondering exactly what is available from the information you gather at night. Jeez, I can't believe this didn't occur to me. Logistically it seems difficult to implement in a mafia game, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen. Sounds like a solid idea based on the flavor of the role, however I doubt that he actually flipped factions. Maybe just able to have a townie faction NK every other night?

There have only been two nights, I think luck could still be playing a role there. Further, we don't even know (per Kaziocore's post) that we lost a power role last night. Both have indiscriminate names, especially in the land of Kaziocore where flavor reigns, I don't think we should speculate much or we will end up killing ourselves like last game. I like the general idea, ie that you're not jumping to that conclusion. However, it seems to me that factions have generally been blocked out on this forum by color. I think you're right on to be skeptical, but I think history would indicate the opposite. If tomorrow we lose another color I'd be more inclined to believe you. In addition on that point, is it possible a scum was killed last night for some reason? I mean it is a total longshot. But, he is a different color and he appears to be sane. It is pretty ambiguous as to whether he was sane before or after his death. Possibility, yes. However, also very doubtful.

Oh, and I meant the "Night-shift Veterinarian" and "overdose" parts separately as well. I think all three of those facts could have discrete meanings for what went on last night. An overdose could mean suicide, but I think that would be a pretty strange situation for a mafia game. It could have been framed that way by the mafia, either by the players or as part of the mods flavor.

I concur. People with more familiarity with roles, thoughts on: Or... P.S. I tried to copy and paste the formatting. Apologizes in advance if I post a bunch of coding.

I'll be gone until Saturday the 16th. It is doubtful I will have computer access, but given the chance I will check in.

This was indeed my point. Thanks. Part of my vote is about the way you play. You fooled me once, and I don't want it to happen again. I am not voting for you because you were scum last game, but because last time I gave you the benefit of the doubt and I was wrong. Even if it turns out not to be the case that you are scum, I feel that your voting pattern and record will vindicate my decision. That's pretty much what I figured, hence why I placed more suspicion on Rafay than you. However, in this game phrasing matters. If we just voted purely based on voting patterns we'd be hard pressed to decide between the individuals who voted for JohnGato yesterday.

Forgot to bold. Vote: Rafay

I don't mean to downplay the involvement of those players in the slightest. However, the prevailing D1 wisdom was to lynch and inactive, which is probably the best place to start on D1. Rafay and OrangeRush both seemed to have other motivations, although OrangeRush to a much lesser degree. He more or less towed the line. Vote: Rafay I'll cite my previously mentioned reasons. Suffice to restate: (1) the comment on his JohnGato vote is quite suspect; (2) he voted for a known townie; and (3) his voting pattern is erratic. Last time I gave these indications the benefit of the doubt and it was a mistake.

I'm thinking that at least one of the people who voted for JohnGato is scum. First, JohnGato has been confirmed as townie. The scum, obviously, would have known this before the rest of us. It came down to three spots left. Which means, in a game where we have three or four scum, they could have sealed the deal right there. If it is a three scum game then JohnGato's survival until the night phase is explained by not having enough guns, only two players left at that point. If we're dealing with a four scum team it is even more probable that there was at least one scum already in that pile. It is the only objectively scummy information I think we have at this point. Of course they could have just chose not to do it. However, in a pile on that quick with so many people to point fingers at, it probably would have been a safe bet. I realize both scenarios are a bit shaky, but even if I am wrong JohnGato is still a townie and those people attempted to put him to death. I'd bet at least one scum jumped in the bandwagon. Therefore, I'll be lynching either Rafay or OrangeRush7. Rafay claimed that we might as well get this over with quickly when he voted. There is a way to spin everything, but I see this in one of two lights. Either he genuinely feels that way, and that is a severely unhelpful attitude for the town. Or he was trying to pull in more mob votes on JohnGato by treating it like a foregone conclusion. I find neither to be pro-town. OrangeRush7 would be my far away number two, he voted and claimed we might as well lynch him. I don't think that is a very strong position. I don't think it should ever come to just that. I'd like to hear a bit more about how other people are feeling about Rafay before voting. Last time he seemed scummy and we all told ourselves it couldn't be true. I think this time he has been objectively scummy and I don't want to make that mistake again.

True. However, I think that is just Rafay, not an indication of his scumminess, but I suppose that is similar to what we all said last time... While he's changed votes, he hasn't been obnoxious or trying to get bandwagons to much about it, so I don't think he is worthy of a vote. I disagree. I tried to explain reasoning for that in an earlier post. However, you're not going to get a second vote from me. While it might tempt me more in a later game if you're otherwise implicated, you're entitled to your opinion here.

Sounds like reverse-reverse-reverse psychology to me. I won't dwell here because you already changed you mind. However, I want to point out that I disagree. Total inactivity is the fault of a missing player. Checking in once every three days could indicate scuminess because they could be trying to be elusive without being more active; it indicates more of a playstyle potentially based on the role. If they're just plain not there then the indicates something about the person behind the keys, not the role they're playing; lack of activity is not the same as low activity. Hopefully, and I agree probably, there is a cop. We may no longer have a vigilante, if we did at all, because they could very well have been a one shot.

Gender and Names seems pretty mundane. I'm skeptical of ElectricMango's quoted reveal though. This was a lot to give away and certainly more than asked for. An overreaching townie claim maybe? Although this was pretty much already revealed in one of ElectricMango's earlier posts when we were doing information gathering, if I remember correctly; so, a clever scum would have already realized this. (Post #147). I'm wondering if we have a follow the cop option? KevinH has a solid vote on Nerau, but Nerau pretty much hung himself with inactivity if we go by Day 1's logic. Rafay switched votes which makes him a tough cop to follow if he is indeed the cop. I'm not throughly convinced a cop is on the table so far.

I'm a lady. Keep your eyes up gentlemen. Again, let's not lynch Nerau until we see if a replacement is incoming.

Twice? That is pretty interesting. I was leaning towards a town vigilante as the culprit for the double kill until this. If you got probed twice, I'd bet there are two factions with power roles. From what I can tell of Kaziocore, he likes to make roles that are less than ordinary so the chances that a town doc and cop both happened to act and both on the same person I bet are slim. I'd wager instead that we have two factions with some sort of power role, beyond just NKs. Did you get any more details about what was disturbed or anything of that sort? Even more so, I bet or doc is a pretty weird role. If we're all insane already, we could have a pretty stretched doc role. Still a savior of some kind, but with some pretty strange restrictions/powers.

I'm thinking this was the action of two factions also. The flavor sets it up so that the mafia are trying to make us sane again, not kill us. I'd go with a townie vigilante calling in the hit on JohnGato. We'll have to go back and look at how that unfolded. Hopefully there is something to tease out. It was an interesting target for the scum, I'd say we didn't come through with no information, but it will take some stretching.

Yikes. Things are really swaying around in this game so far. Scum will probably take advantage of that quickly as our numbers dwindle.

Hopefully this is too afford more time to get a replacement and let him/her get aquatinted with the game.

I hope that replacement comes through. That would be a much better situation. If it does, I guess the scummiest thing I've seen so far is: Except where we have problems with the scum dominating out discussion this doesn't ever seem to be a good idea for the town. I don't think that is the case here, so it doesn't seem like it is pro-town. Enough to vote on? We'll see. Plus, who knows what level of quad-reverse psychology Rafay is playing this game! The lynch/no-lynch thing, the way I see it, has clear benefits each way. I think it is a strategy decision that should be evaluated in a game by game basis not as a blanket doctrine. Unfortunately, I think, the way both ElectricMango and KevinH approach it is the later. Here, I think with so many townies and so much room for back and forth, strategy wise, the no-lynch argument is more persuasive than usual. However, it's always a shame walking into D2 with nothing. To KavinH's point, you may say I told you so, but the goal wasn't necessarily to not lynch a townie. On the contrary, that is sort of the assumed sacrifice and risk. When we do, theoretically, the benefit of the D2 voting pattern outweighs the loss of the single townie. So, you might say "I told you so", but I don't think anyone ever contends that it is likely that we'll lynch a scum. Therefore, it seems like your retort is a little off the mark.

Why would that be good for the town? Doubtful. Although scum might want to stay under the radar, certainly they would speak up (assuming they are active) if they were certain to get lynched. We have a mod for a reason. Inactives get replaced. Lets leave enough time for that to happen, it is in the town's favor to replace moreso than to lynch.

My point as well. No reason to stack up votes. If you're a townie voting purely based on inactivity and we happen to get up to the majority. You not only lynch a townie, but have a kill record with a townie on both ends. Not saying I won't vote, but just not yet. I'll bite the bullet if it is our best option near the end of the deadline.

Vote: Change the Length I'm probably on board to vote for JohnGato. However, he still has a few days to jump in before D1 is out. I would not be for ending the day because he was inactive without giving him closer to the full (amended) deadline.

We'd have the cop info to go off, whether they find a scum or not. It would be someone to lead us in the right direction, if they're convincing. I think that is an even bigger threat, namely, drowning out or own power roles with the voice of the mob.

I don't expect you to change your vote, but I want to clear this up. It's not that I won't vote for someone if that seems like our best strategy. I am not completely opposed to it. In fact, in my post I point out that if we just start waiting it could be a long time before we have a good reason to start lynching considering the number. I wasn't trying to convince or necessarily advocate. Like I said, I was just thinking out loud. I agree that a voting pattern would be helpful, but with this many people random voting it has a larger possibility of being off the mark and being misleading when we try and build a voting "pattern" of someone later in the game. It's not that I won't do it, I just think there are some drawbacks with should continue to consider, even as the game goes on. As for multiple night kills that could be possible. I'm sure we'll see it at some point in the game. There is probably a vigilante out there for the town somewhere, we are all quite mad after all. No matter what, I'd bet there will be a flurry of night actions tonight. I hope something turns up useful tomorrow. I think KevinH rightly points out that even with an assumed fourth scum there is a large majority pointing towards accidentally killing a townie. I guess I'll continue to read posts and see what becomes of the day. Someone pointed out we have quite a few days to make a decision. I'll reserve a vote for someone inactive. The scum will probably have a pretty easy go of being passive in such a large game, that could be a place to start. And if we're going to lynch just for the sake of a pattern, I'd rather guess from a pool of inactive people than just the whole pool of people in general. Although I'm generally against voting based on activity, it might be the best to go off on D1.

I agree a lynch on D1 is much less satisfying with more people. The pool will be so big an unguided that we can't really use it to narrow down suspects and it would be far too easy for those scum to just get lost in the voting crowd. Looking back in later days for a pattern may be mislead by the sheer size of a random vote pool. However, I also think that without a vote we're just setting ourselves up for the same problem in the coming days. How long will we wait until the numbers seem to be right? Are we going on sheer proportions? The night kills will likely not give us any information. The scum could just roll the dice and lynch random people if no one is actually voting, then we would have nothing to go on. Further, cop power roles and the like will be significantly diluted. The pool will be so huge that picking a scum at random will be even more...well random, especially if we aren't voting. The flavor mentioned the good work of the police, maybe we a can count on a cop? What about a doctor? With all the madness there must be some sort of medical personel? On the other hand, I'd bet both of the roles are pretty obscure or non-traditional. I don't know how well off we'll be counting on them. Anyway, just thinking out loud as it seems to be our strategy so far.