761 replies to this topic

[molestargazer]

I sent the 2 inactives a prod overnight, neither replied. They'll be replaced ASAP.

Mega Catch-Up VOTE COUNT

Not Voting (10): CaoCao, AKCPLUTO, Preston, ccabal86, KevinH, CanucksDynasty, Electric Mango, reign of terror, TerrorChrist, Nerau

Edited by molestargazer, 28 April 2011 - 09:08 AM.

[ccabal86]

I sent the 2 inactives a prod overnight, neither replied. They'll be replaced ASAP.

Damn, that's a real pity. I would have REALLY loved to hear Narsis' day 1 mafia theory. Especially since 2 of the 3 suspects turned out to be townies...

[CanucksDynasty]

I got nothing. I thought d3mon and KevinH were mafia. Maybe it's Narsis and Herodez instead.

[Preston]

no i didn't use my ablitity

Not unexpected, but too bad; if you had, we could have ruled out whoever it was as being the one that nightkilled you.

I sent the 2 inactives a prod overnight, neither replied. They'll be replaced ASAP.

Damn, that's a real pity. I would have REALLY loved to hear Narsis' day 1 mafia theory. Especially since 2 of the 3 suspects turned out to be townies...

I got nothing. I thought d3mon and KevinH were mafia. Maybe it's Narsis and Herodez instead.

Well this is interesting; I hadnt expected TWO inactives. We can hope that one of them was scum - I could see them lying low on day 1 once the discussion turned in a direction they liked, and ending up just not checking the forums for a while. This inactivity doesnt necessarily absolve those two (or their roles, if they're replaced) of scumminess, but it does shift them a bit lower on my list - until further information develops anyway.

I have yet to develop a firm opinion on who seems scummy on day 2; all we seem to have gotten so far is negative indications for TC and now these two. We have the vote candidates KevinH lists, but I'm not restricting myself to them; it's quite possible actual scum stayed quiet during the debate to avoid exposure today.

The only other datapoint aside from everyone's day 1 actions seems to be CD's vanilla townie roleclaim versus the potential for a game like last one with no vanilla townies. I do not yet consider this suspicious in itself; could also be just hiding/preserving a good role and attempting to be a less-interesting nightkill target if he is in fact fakeclaiming vanilla town.

For now, I'm interested in seeing what ultimately happens with the replacements.

-Preston

[CanucksDynasty]

@Preston - not fake roleclaiming. I roleclaimed vanilla townie to disprove d3mon's roleclaim. I erred in thinking that the setup would be the same as last game (ie. all the negative roles to confuse the security guard).

[KevinH]

d3mon (4): ccabal86, CanucksDynasty, TerrorChrist, CaoCao
ccabal86 (2): Nerau, Electric Mango
KevinH (2): Narsis, Herodez
TerrorChrist (1): d3mon
CanucksDynasty (1): KevinH

Not Voting (1): Preston

Assuming 3 mafia, the question of distribution is interesting.
TerrorChrist, Nerau, and I are townies.
ccabal86, CanucksDynasty, and CaoCao are potentials that voted to lynch a townie.
Electric Mango, Narsis, Herodez, and Preston are potentials that didn't vote to lynch a townie.

If only 1 mafia voted to lynch d3mon, then that means 2 of the 4 remaining potentials are scum. That's hard for me to believe.

Therefore, I believe at least 2 of the 3 that voted for d3mon are scum. We should vote for one of those.

[Preston]

@Preston - not fake roleclaiming. I roleclaimed vanilla townie to disprove d3mon's roleclaim. I erred in thinking that the setup would be the same as last game (ie. all the negative roles to confuse the security guard).

Ah, I did not pick up on that as much on day 1. We still havent SEEN a vanilla townie, but your reasoning makes sense; though of course if you WERE fakeclaiming you'd say exactly this too :-p My mentioning that scenario was more an observation than a question - and scum can either try ya or not at their risk. Either way, thanks for answering.

Now just need to figure out where to go from here.

-Preston

[Electric Mango]

Just checking by to see what's been happening. I'll be back home Saturday.

Just a quick thought. Out of the four lynchers I think CD and TC are townies and I'm suspicious of ccabal86 and Cao Cao. I plan on doing an investigation on those two and I'll post back with my report as well as why I think CD, Kevin, and TC are town.

[ccabal86]

Well, I guess lynching one of those who voted for d3mon is the logical thing to do, after all, it resulted in the death of probably the best townie role.

So I guess that leaves me, CD and CaoCao as the prime targets, as TC came out of the closet - so to speak. In all fairness though, we must state that d3mon did an very poor job of convincing us he was townie. First, he starts making some very specific accusations (TC being THE janitor), then when we question him, he claims an important role. Furthermore, first he refuses to say what it is, then he refuses to paraphrase the role PM.

Of course, none of this PROVES his scummyness, but, come on, we all know how paranoid mafia games are. When the shadow of suspicion is cast on someone, it can easily become a downward spiral from there, especially if the person's acts seem to reinforce the suspicion.

In MY defense though, let me just make 2 points real quick:

1, I did not "bandwagon" onto d3mon, in fact, it was the very first vote on him. My vote was the same vote I placed on him jokingly, but as he acted more and more suspicious (at least from my point of view), i became more and more convinced that my vote was well placed.

2, I DID bring up an alternative to lynching him, which was ignored. Granted I should have emphasized this MUCH more, it just kinda got lost. Truth be told, I wasn't sure if it would work myself, but it was still out there somebody could have picked it up:

But how do we prove him [d3mon] townie? Give him a chance to use his ability, post whatever he finds then lynch him on day 2?

It could have been a workable solution. He could have investigated on Night 1, posted his results, then we'd have lynched him. The lynch would have proved his townieness and we could have safely used his results.

[ccabal86]

On the other hand, I find Narsis' behavior more and more suspicious. He was one of the first to accuse d3mon of being scum, and furthermore he - in total seriousness - claims he that d3mon, KevinH and myself are scum, and all this on Day 1. And when we demand an explanation of this almost surreal claim, he suddenly becomes less active - blaming it on headaches - then vanishes completely.

I really don't know what to make of this. Perhaps, he was trying to capitalize on KevinH's backfired Apr 1st joke, hoping to score a quick lynch? I don't know, but it's not normal play, that's for sure.

[KevinH]

I didn't find d3mon's behavior that scummy and emphatically said so.
I proposed a reasonable (though not guaranteed) approach.
Yet the votes remained.
Maybe all three scum voted for him.

[CanucksDynasty]

I didn't find d3mon's behavior that scummy and emphatically said so.
I proposed a reasonable (though not guaranteed) approach.
Yet the votes remained.
Maybe all three scum voted for him.

You're probably one of the few that didn't think he was scummy. All 3 mafia did not vote for him since I'm a vanilla townie. While I am higher on the suspect list...it doesn't absolve any of you (except TC) from being mafia.

[Electric Mango]

CD brings up a good point about KevinH. Kevin knows we are all in favor of a D1 lynch, were gonna lynch a foo no matter what. With the surge of suspicion cast on d3mon and the impending dead line nearing his pleas would go unheeded. Knowing this, Kevin could have done it all for show.

Still, Kevin is still one of my most trusted, second only behind TC. I also like CD because the dude just went for it. Maybe it was a ballzy move on his part but I like CD in this one. CD is always good at playing the "bad cop" and asking the tough ?s. Mafia or Town, CD is still an assert to us.

My plan is to get behind an actuall keyboard by Monday and review ccabal86 and Cao Cao with all of their relevant posts. If you have ?s about any one else Id be glad to answer as well.

Mahalo

[KevinH]

I see a difference this time.

• d3mon was essentially forced to role-claim when a pro-town strategy would not so indicate.
• After claiming security guard, he was still lynched.

[TerrorChrist]

You're probably one of the few that didn't think he was scummy. All 3 mafia did not vote for him since I'm a vanilla townie. While I am higher on the suspect list...it doesn't absolve any of you (except TC) from being mafia.

I almost said something which could make someone a suspect, but seeing how my last "I am sure he's bad" went, I think I'll just keep my mouth shut....

[KevinH]

TerrorChrist quickly decided to take the initiative. He ran up to the unconscious form of Nerau ...

I think TerrorChrist is certainly townie (remorseful thug idea outstanding).

[CanucksDynasty]

I almost said something which could make someone a suspect, but seeing how my last "I am sure he's bad" went, I think I'll just keep my mouth shut....

You can FOS with impunity since you're a known townie and your input would be of some worth. While I will continue with FOSing...my credibility is shot since I lynched the security guard. Since I could be mafia in the eyes of some trying to spread blame all around.

One thing I asked and nobody answered is why Nerau??

Both KevinH and CaoCao hinted that they had some weak roles but neither were targeted.

[ccabal86]

One thing I asked and nobody answered is why Nerau??

No idea. Maybe the mafia started with some initial info/hints?

To answer that properly, you'd have to be mafia, and they're not going to tell you, lol

[Preston]

I almost said something which could make someone a suspect, but seeing how my last "I am sure he's bad" went, I think I'll just keep my mouth shut....

You can FOS with impunity since you're a known townie and your input would be of some worth. While I will continue with FOSing...my credibility is shot since I lynched the security guard. Since I could be mafia in the eyes of some trying to spread blame all around.

One thing I asked and nobody answered is why Nerau??

Both KevinH and CaoCao hinted that they had some weak roles but neither were targeted.

@TC:
As CD stated, you are basically confirmed town. You no longer need to worry about being suspected for your opinions or accusations - whether people agree or disagree with you, noone will really think you scum for saying it. So if you have any thoughts observations or feelings, please post them - especially since it IS possible you'll be targetted sooner now that your towniness is confirmed, per earlier posts. If you die tonight, any of your unspoken thoughts die with you.

@CD:
Regarding Nerau, here's a brief analysis/thought-dump:

1) I'm a bit puzzled by why he was chosen as well; he didnt exactly stand out on day 1, and if anything he would have been a scum red herring if left alive since he was also talking against d3mon. There's no benefit I can see that scum gained by choosing him unless they somehow knew beforehand that he had a power role.
1a) While ccabal's idea about day 1 mafia intel is interesting... I just dont think it's likely mole would go that route as it would possibly be REALLY unbalanced.
1b) A day rolecop is possible (one of the scum roles from the first aborted game I played), but that again would not explain why Nerau was investigated.
1c) Scum could have been checking those who didnt roleclaim to see if that hid a role and/or if this game had any vanilla townies.
2) The only real idea I have is that scum didnt go after KevinH because prior to TC's role-use Kevin was the only semi-proven townie; any doctor/protector role on night 1 would have been most likely to protect Kevin, and by targetting him scum would risk having their nightkill negated.
2a) We could STILL have some sort of protective role after TC's claim... but it's possible/probable that role was also used/wasted already.
3) If either KevinH or CaoCao are scum, they cant target themselves. Kevin is obviously seeming very pro-town at present though and there's not enough information to make a judgment about CaoCao, his d3mon vote aside.
4) Nerau voted for ccabal, but again I'm not sure if that information yields us anything at this point because of the whole "Wine In Front Of Me" concept (forget the acronym) - i.e. scum knows that we know that nerau voted for ccabal, so using it to try and cast suspicion on ccabal would not necessarily be effective because we could guess thats what they were trying to do; very chicken/egg analysis, so it feels like we dont gain any information from this.

I'm sure there's another dimension or something to this that I'm not seeing, because I cannot see how scum would benefit from this prior to their discovering nerau's role. CD is seemingly stumped too, so unless KevinH has something to add here then I'm not sure how else to interpret their choosing nerau.

Anyone else have thoughts on this? Kevin?

-Preston

[Electric Mango]

My guess is that the scum just got lucky, plus there seems to be a lot of power roles. Everyone who semi role claimed said they had a small power role. They didn't kill Kevin because he would most likely been town and the most logical choice to protect.

Again, will post deeper thoughts with detail when I get k.I.f.o.m (keyboard in front of me).