346 replies to this topic

[Kaziocore]

First, you haven't put yourself on this list. So it is short one candidate.
Second, there is surely reason to divide between more than just two categories of activity.
Third, Nerau is town no matter what side of the list he is on.
Fourth, there are good reasons to be more inactive than active and visa versa, at this point in the game, as a scum.
Fifth, activity in terms of frequency it is just as important as activity in terms of content.
Sixth, you give no evidence to suggest that if one (or even two) people on your active list are scum that they will win or evidence to suggest that people on either list are scum or not. Seems more like a scare tactic.
Eighth, the scum need the townies to vote (a.k.a. be active) to get a day kill. If we're smart they won't win that way.

1) in my point of view, it's stupid to suspect myself as scum just like everyone of you
thinks/pretends to be townie
2) im just saying a hypothetical situation
3-6) where did you get that from my post???
8) why?? half majority is 3 so all the mafia could do is vote someone since the deadline
is getting nearer...

[BeeBs]

1) in my point of view, it's stupid to suspect myself as scum just like everyone of you
thinks/pretends to be townie
2) im just saying a hypothetical situation
3-6) where did you get that from my post???
8) why?? half majority is 3 so all the mafia could do is vote someone since the deadline
is getting nearer...

1) I wouldn't suggest you suspect yourself, but if you building a list of activity that we (as a team) should consider, you should not leave out members, yourself included.
2) Right, but its not very helpful if it severely oversimplifies the options.
3) You added Nerau to your list
4) Your list is oversimplified and you suggested that if there are members of a certain class in a certain group then we are in danger.
5) Your list is oversimplified.
6) You didn't provide any evidence, that's not helpful. This might be one of my biggest concerns. You're suggesting that our most active players are our most dangerous ones. You don't specifically state what to do about that, nor do you suggest any real reason to suspect them. This is why it seems more like a scare tactic than analysis.
3 - 6) The fact that these considerations aren't in your post is exactly what troubles me.
8) Sorry, this should have been a 7. The majority vote requires five today and four tomorrow. That means two townies need to vote today and one needs to vote tomorrow before the mafia can pile on and when if said townies are wrong. If it is three as you suggest we would have already lost. (We're both assuming three mafia are in this game.)

[KevinH]

If the deadline passes and nobody has sufficient votes to by lynched, then that just becomes a no-lynch without people specifically voting for it.

Regarding activity, I think most players are like myself and that is that I post when it's convenient, whether I'm townie or scum.

I try to play the same regardless of affiliation; three of you are doing a good job of that in this game!

[Preston]

If the rest of the players will not dedicate their time into playing
then we might as well No Lynch.

In the hypothetical situation that
d3mon, preston, kevinh or beebs
(whichever combination) are scum,
then the town will surely lose as the
other half is very inactive...
(nerau, ccabal's replacement, fighting okra)

If we dont get enough votes then no-lynch will happen by default because of those inactive players.

Im not entirely certain how well no-lynch serves the town though... we would have slightly better numbers tomorrow, but unless we get more information all we will have done is lost a townie and our current kazio vs d3mon question will not be any closer to an answer - and if scum targets Nerau, then we will be out our only 'proven' townie.

This seems rather misleading.

First, you haven't put yourself on this list. So it is short one candidate.
Second, there is surely reason to divide between more than just two categories of activity.
Third, Nerau is town no matter what side of the list he is on.
Fourth, there are good reasons to be more inactive than active and visa versa, at this point in the game, as a scum.
Fifth, activity in terms of frequency it is just as important as activity in terms of content.
Sixth, you give no evidence to suggest that if one (or even two) people on your active list are scum that they will win or evidence to suggest that people on either list are scum or not. Seems more like a scare tactic.
Eighth, the scum need the townies to vote (a.k.a. be active) to get a day kill. If we're smart they won't win that way.

In addition, I think thinking in terms of activity for vote candidates is something we need to move past as it is a partial reason (maybe even the dominant reason) we're losing.

On the other hand, I concur with your conclusion about a no lynch for other reasons. If we don't decide to vote for someone collectively today, and we should, I think, before we actually use our vote power, then we might want to no lynch. It doesn't seem like anyone has demonstrated that this is a particularly stupid idea anyway. If we no lynch, tomorrow we will have to be especially careful about deciding who to lynch before we actually type in our vote.

I think you misread the point of Kazio's list - he did not write it as a list of "these active people are scum", he wrote it as "If all 3 scum are on this active list, we're screwed because the rest are inactive and cannot vote/defend against scum voting for/accusing them." And then you and kazio try to deal with the confusion without realizing that you misread his list in the first place.
Responding to the specific points you ask him about though:
1) It's entirely normal for people to take their own towniness as a given during analysis; you can only work with what you know.
2) While there are other divisions, this is just him saying 'activity is lacking in Nerau, ccabal's replacement and FightingOkra' - this is not an all-inclusive analysis.
3) Again, Nerau being on the 'inactive' side is not a weight on towniness/scumminess here.
4) Not entirely certain I agree about scum benefitting from being inactive at this stage - but they could go either way.
5) I think youre referring to posts that dont add anything here? Havent seen much of those, though some from Nerau since I havent seen a good opinion from him yet... nor have I seen much from d3mon per my earlier posts.
6) Yeah, again you misread the 'activity' list as a 'scum' list.
7) THERE IS NO NUMBER SEVEN!
8) Kazio is correct in his follow-up post; if all 3 scum vote and then the day ends, they COULD get a lynch on their own. However it would not be the same as an INSTANT lynch that would leave the town with no time left to react; the sort of vote 'blitz' people worry about. When the full majority (5 votes) is reached, the day effectively ends and nothing more can be done - you are correct in saying scum cannot reach THAT number on their own.

I still suspect Kazio, but his statement about activity vs inactivity doesnt have a lot of meaning other than as a lament that so many people are largely inactive.

I'm also going to say that this post of yours (BeeBs) is far more organized and less paragraph-heavy than your usual posts XD I can actually respond to this one!

If the deadline passes and nobody has sufficient votes to by lynched, then that just becomes a no-lynch without people specifically voting for it.

Regarding activity, I think most players are like myself and that is that I post when it's convenient, whether I'm townie or scum.

I try to play the same regardless of affiliation; three of you are doing a good job of that in this game!

The day supposedly ends tomorrow, 8/15. We can ask RoT for an extension of the day - and hope that he actually SEES it when he checks in to close the thread at the end of the day. If we no-lynch at this stage I want it to be something we CHOOSE to do, not have done for us by default.

-Preston

[KevinH]

I don't want an extension. If it hasn't happened by now, it ain't gonna happen.

Vote: No-lynch (For Preston's benefit)

The possible benefit of no-lynching is that a super-townie can use his powers and give more information tomorrow.

[BeeBs]

If we dont get enough votes then no-lynch will happen by default because of those inactive players.

Im not entirely certain how well no-lynch serves the town though... we would have slightly better numbers tomorrow, but unless we get more information all we will have done is lost a townie and our current kazio vs d3mon question will not be any closer to an answer - and if scum targets Nerau, then we will be out our only 'proven' townie.

The day supposedly ends tomorrow, 8/15. We can ask RoT for an extension of the day - and hope that he actually SEES it when he checks in to close the thread at the end of the day. If we no-lynch at this stage I want it to be something we CHOOSE to do, not have done for us by default.

On the other hand, the scum could substantially mess with our conclusions here by killing either D3mon or Kaziocore. Suppose the majority opinion prevails (I still have my doubts), that Kaziocore and D3mon are on different sides. If they kill one of them we'd have a very different ball game.

Now, in the specific case of Kaziocore v. D3mon, our odds will be static no matter what because their allegiance will not change. So, if we are keen on voting for one or the other it doesn't really matter what day we vote on.

If, and that seems like a big if and this point, we have power roles we get another (hopefully useful) night.

I think you misread the point of Kazio's list - he did not write it as a list of "these active people are scum", he wrote it as "If all 3 scum are on this active list, we're screwed because the rest are inactive and cannot vote/defend against scum voting for/accusing them." And then you and kazio try to deal with the confusion without realizing that you misread his list in the first place.

I don't think so. I agree that the direct point of his post was the identify active players versus inactive players and demonstrate that the scum could very well control the outcome of the game if they control that active majority. However, I think there were some very important implications. It was those implications that I was attacking.

Namely, if Kaziocore is suggesting that this is a problem the first question is, how do we find a solution? The solution is dealing with those players on the active list so they don't control the game. Now, that means that if we want to do that, we should lynch a scummy player on that active list.

His list implied that we should consider the scumminess of the active players. That implication is what my post was attacking. I agree that it wasn't his direct purpose, but that is why I said it was misleading. I think this was a relatively subtle implication and I didn't want it to go unnoticed.

[d3mon]

Ah.. with the no lynch clouds looming and me being a very likely target for the night kill.. I believe that I should put all my cards on the table.. I will try to explain all my actions through the game and would happily answer any questions that you guys might have.

Lets start with the role claim

I am a student who is obsessed with two things in life, one of them is coffee and the other is detective novels. In simpler terms, I have a one shot investigative role. Once during the game I can investigate a player and will know if the player is scum or not.

Now, people have been suspicious of KevinH from Day 2 and I have been the only one defending him... a very valid question is why, and the answer should now be obvious i.e I investigated him during night 1 and he is not scum. I did have CD and Tracker on my FoS but KevinH's comment against extending the deadline on Day 1 kinda made him the biggest suspect in my eyes. IMHO, discussion is the most important weapon for the town and if someone is against it then he is not pro town.. unfortunately, it seems that this is not always true

With a little bit of help from the mod, by the end of Day 2, I was aware of three townies.. Me, Nerau and KevinH..

ATM, there are most likely 5 townies alive and my analysis rests on two lists...

1) Since KevinH is a townie, it is reasonable to believe that atleast one of those attacking him is scum i.e. One of BeeBs, Kazio, FO is scum.
2) Since Angel is a dead townie, it is reasonable to believe that atleast 1 vote was from scum i.e One of d3mon, FO, Kazio or KevinH is scum

If we look at the two lists, Kazio and FO are the two people who are most likely to be scum...

What do you guys think?

[Kaziocore]

Ah.. with the no lynch clouds looming and me being a very likely target for the night kill.. I believe that I should put all my cards on the table.. I will try to explain all my actions through the game and would happily answer any questions that you guys might have.

Lets start with the role claim

I am a student who is obsessed with two things in life, one of them is coffee and the other is detective novels. In simpler terms, I have a one shot investigative role. Once during the game I can investigate a player and will know if the player is scum or not.

Now, people have been suspicious of KevinH from Day 2 and I have been the only one defending him... a very valid question is why, and the answer should now be obvious i.e I investigated him during night 1 and he is not scum. I did have CD and Tracker on my FoS but KevinH's comment against extending the deadline on Day 1 kinda made him the biggest suspect in my eyes. IMHO, discussion is the most important weapon for the town and if someone is against it then he is not pro town.. unfortunately, it seems that this is not always true

With a little bit of help from the mod, by the end of Day 2, I was aware of three townies.. Me, Nerau and KevinH..

ATM, there are most likely 5 townies alive and my analysis rests on two lists...

1) Since KevinH is a townie, it is reasonable to believe that atleast one of those attacking him is scum i.e. One of BeeBs, Kazio, FO is scum.
2) Since Angel is a dead townie, it is reasonable to believe that atleast 1 vote was from scum i.e One of d3mon, FO, Kazio or KevinH is scum

If we look at the two lists, Kazio and FO are the two people who are most likely to be scum...

What do you guys think?

If you're telling the truth then
1) This explains why I saw you visiting RoT and EM.
2) There's an incentive for the scum to go inactive as
either can be lynched if both are townies.
3) You're inactivity may be used as a strategy to lay
low from the mafia

[KevinH]

Unvote.

I think we should make the guess now. I doubt there is another investigative role so an extra night isn't going to help us.

I propose that Nerau makes the guess and the rest of us townies follow his lead. No pressure or anything ...

[FightingOkra]

Sorry for not being as active, but I really don't get alot of time at the computer during the weekend. I'm off at college during the week, and home with the g/f on the weekends. So, that kinda makes me go inactive a little, but I have been reading the posts and keeping up to date.

Well, this is suprising! D3mon's claim does explain why he has kind of had KevinH's back. But why not announce that earlier? It seems if it was just a 1 time use you could have announced it, and not really been a target b/c you have no more power.

You're reason for role-claiming was becasue you think you are a likely canidate for being Night Killed. Why do you think that?
I would think that anyone that has been fighting back and forth would be safe from the night kill because we would then have a good idea as to who would have killed you.

My guess as to who has the highest chance of being Night killed is Nearu, a known townie, who hasn't really made any accusations or had any debate about who he thinks is Mafia, so they could kill him and we would have no suspects.

One thing, though, that makes me think you could be telling the truth is that it was a 1 time power. It seems like we don't really have a big power townie, just a bunch of smaller 1 time use roles.

I still suspect you could be mafia, I think I just want a better explanation as to why you chose to roleclaim now, and not before. Unless you meant to say that you were a likely canidate to be Day killed.

[Preston]

Ah.. with the no lynch clouds looming and me being a very likely target for the night kill.. I believe that I should put all my cards on the table.. I will try to explain all my actions through the game and would happily answer any questions that you guys might have.

Lets start with the role claim

I am a student who is obsessed with two things in life, one of them is coffee and the other is detective novels. In simpler terms, I have a one shot investigative role. Once during the game I can investigate a player and will know if the player is scum or not.

Now, people have been suspicious of KevinH from Day 2 and I have been the only one defending him... a very valid question is why, and the answer should now be obvious i.e I investigated him during night 1 and he is not scum. I did have CD and Tracker on my FoS but KevinH's comment against extending the deadline on Day 1 kinda made him the biggest suspect in my eyes. IMHO, discussion is the most important weapon for the town and if someone is against it then he is not pro town.. unfortunately, it seems that this is not always true

With a little bit of help from the mod, by the end of Day 2, I was aware of three townies.. Me, Nerau and KevinH..

ATM, there are most likely 5 townies alive and my analysis rests on two lists...

1) Since KevinH is a townie, it is reasonable to believe that atleast one of those attacking him is scum i.e. One of BeeBs, Kazio, FO is scum.
2) Since Angel is a dead townie, it is reasonable to believe that atleast 1 vote was from scum i.e One of d3mon, FO, Kazio or KevinH is scum

If we look at the two lists, Kazio and FO are the two people who are most likely to be scum...

What do you guys think?

Glad to see you finally back with us d3mon! And with one heck of a roleclaim to counter Kazio's. Interesting.

I WILL say this seems consistent with your previously backing KevinH as town despite my suspicion of him. Possibilities:
1) d3mon is town, telling the truth: KevinH is town
2) d3mon is scum, fakeclaiming and counting on KevinH (town) to back him up
3) d3mon is scum, fakeclaiming and also trying to say KevinH(scum) is town too

Unless we see a cop counter-claim, then #1 is probable... and among those active, I think if there WAS another cop they would have spoken up by now. I can somewhat understand the reason for prior silence based on the fact his lone investigation didnt find scum, it found town - not worth sticking his neck out for I guess. Though as a one-time role he might not have been targetted after that.

I have to still consider that d3mon COULD be fakeclaiming - though I think option #2 is more probable than option #3 on LYLO if d3mon is scum. Ironically this does more to deal with my suspicions of KevinH than my thoughts on d3mon - 2 of the 3 cases above have KevinH as town, and #1 seems the most likely barring a counter-claim. It also messes with my theory that KevinH and kazio are complicit scum - if Kazio's claim is fake then KevinH would be just a misled townie.

d3mon is currently one of the two 'main' suspects, part of that 50-50 with Kazio. This roleclaim is being made partially in his own defense, and while he does not explicitly attack Kazio this seems like basically a counter to Kazio's claim.

Between Kazio's one-shot vigilante and d3mon's one-shot cop, right now I'd lean towards d3mon being town and kazio being scum. This may make me reconsider KevinH as town... at which point I need to evaluate FightingOkra more closely as a possible 2nd scum voting for Angel, or alternately the combination of BeeBs and ccabal as the two other scum.

Unvote.

I think we should make the guess now. I doubt there is another investigative role so an extra night isn't going to help us.

I propose that Nerau makes the guess and the rest of us townies follow his lead. No pressure or anything ...

At minimum we need to hear from Nerau before the day ends - and in light of this new information I think we NEED that day extension now.

-Preston

[Kaziocore]

Between Kazio's one-shot vigilante and d3mon's one-shot cop, right now I'd lean towards d3mon being town and kazio being scum. This may make me reconsider KevinH as town... at which point I need to evaluate FightingOkra more closely as a possible 2nd scum voting for Angel, or alternately the combination of BeeBs and ccabal as the two other scum.

If the other one is telling the truth, it doesn't mean the other one is lying.
With the lack of suspects, I logically concluded that d3mon is most likely
scum based on the only information I have. That's why I was still
hesistant on going after him on d2.

[KevinH]

Nerau, we're counting on you!

[BeeBs]

I propose that Nerau makes the guess and the rest of us townies follow his lead. No pressure or anything ...

I suppose this is a smart option. However, I'm worried that Nerau's inactivity would make him a bad candidate to follow, though he is our only candidate. His lack of posting may indicate an oversimplified view of peoples scumminess and, much more concerning, he might not be back in time. I think we should consider who to vote for if we don't hear from him, a very real possibility.

Who should that be? I'm pretty lost as who to call, to be honest. Kaziocore and D3mon seem equally suspicious to me at the moment. Both have called each other out with similar arguments. Both have role claimed and their roles together do seem to suggest a pretty well flushed out townie pantheon of powers. I am not impressed with Kaziocore's most recent post; however, I understand i was grasping at straws a bit. I am not impressed with D3mon's popping in and out, but I don't want to use that as a justification. I feel like both are on pretty even ground, staying afloat, but only because nothing has really tried to pull them under.

I'm pretty confident in Preston. My troubles with KevinH have dissolved since earlier in the game, but they linger in my mind. There have been a few posts that have been really impressive from KevinH, but I find myself asking for more from many of his posts. Preston's always seem to demonstrate strait forward reasoning and are very accessible, not traits I would consider to be scummy.

I'm still worried about FightingOkra. I think we've let him slip by too much. On the other hand, i have nothing to go on here. I've brought up his voting record a few times, but it always seems to go unnoticed. There's nothing conclusive and certainly isn't a ringleader, but on my list simply as a place holder.

My biggest fear is that Kaziocore and D3mon are both scum. I think they've orchestrated a pretty convincing drama. First, they're seemly friendly on the first days. Then it all hits the fan and they drop each other pretty quickly. They toss some accusations at each other and make themselves the issue, distracting us from discussing alternatives. Kaziocore role claims and makes it pretty convincing, explaining why he mistrusted D3mon. However, he's able to back away from that evidence as the days go on as new evidence surfaces and becomes more solid. Dismissing his own evidence in later posts. D3mon role claims a sort of complementary role to Kaziocore and they fill out the missing townie power roles. Without any other roles out there things seem to make sense and the pieces seem to fit. So, I want to believe they are both townies because that is equally likely following this story, but again, I'm worried they plotted this out in one of the early night phases and are just biding their time. I know that's not evidence, it just seems like they've had a pretty sketchable relationship.

I am now worried about no lynching because I want to give due time if there is a counter claim out there. Also, I think we should put this together and see if we can pick a target. Maybe we will hear from Nerau and can play follow the townie in place of follow the cop. However, deadline is.....today?! Tomorrow?

[Electric Mango]

RoT said he would be back Aug 7th but I haven't heard from him yet. Sounds like you boys are stuck with me :/

The street lights will be on in 48 hrs and Iexpect you all to be home when they do.

tl;dr. Deadline 48 hrs

[FightingOkra]

I can understand the reason for No-Lynching, but we did that on D2 hoping for a cop to step up and they didn't. I believe a no-lynch will not do anyhting to help us, just it did not help us on D2.

So, with that being said

Vote: d3mon

I know this could be looked at as Mafia that's just trying to kill someone off, but I have made my reasons known for suspecting d3mon, and I believe a no-lynch will not provide any benefits. We keep looking for solid, straight forward reasons, but we have no cop, so those are not going to come.

As for his roleclaim, I'm not really believing it (it may be becasue I have suspected him already), I think he could have easily conversed with his mafia buddies and come up with this strategy to silience critics, and this is why he did not roleclaim long before now. I still don't think roleclaiming long ago would have put a big target on his back. Nearu is still around after being known to be a Townie.

now Discuss!

[BeeBs]

RoT said he would be back Aug 7th but I haven't heard from him yet. Sounds like you boys are stuck with me :/

The street lights will be on in 48 hrs and Iexpect you all to be home when they do.

tl;dr. Deadline 48 hrs

This is a little ambiguous. It is night phase from now for the next 48 hours or night phase beings in 48 hours? I'm assuming the former based on flavor, but I'm not sure according to the tl;dr.

[CanucksDynasty]

**pops head in**

I believe EM is saying the day will end in 48 hours from the time he posted. Votes are then tallied. Lynch occurs if there is one. And the the night phase begins after that.

**pops head out...yeah I'm bored**

[FightingOkra]

This is a little ambiguous. It is night phase from now for the next 48 hours or night phase beings in 48 hours? I'm assuming the former based on flavor, but I'm not sure according to the tl;dr.

I took it as Night begins in 48hrs, sorry if I was wrong and was not supposed to be talking

[Nerau]

Time for a bold move

Vote: FO

I believe your a attacking D3dom just for the reason of attacking your so blind you cant see reason and that to me is scummy. And who knows D3 could have been nightkilled remember way back when we all said if there is a cop to wait. Yea i think we actually meant it. Also if town loses what can i say but oh well its better to go out this way then silently in dark