The night-kill will reveal the truth.

 

OK lets explore this scenario.

 

Suppose we vote No Lynch.

 

Suppose RoT is the real cop

 

Scum nightkills RoT -> He turns out to be the real Cop -> means Beebs is scum -> we still have no idea who the other 2 scum are

 

Scum does not night kill RoT (but kills either me or SirCroc) -> We think RoT is scum since he survived and we do not believe his night investigation (same reason as todays) but scum intentionally did not kill RoT to throw suspicion on him and EM and Kazio. Now theres 3 scum voting for RoT/EM/Kazio to be lynched and the remaining townie believing RoT is scum since he survived. 4-3 scum wins.

 

Scum will not nightkill EM and Kazio because that would confirm that the other is a Mason and a confirmed townie. Scum will not hit d3mon and KevinH because one of them is Mafia and killing one exposes the other.

 

Now, Suppose RoT is a fake cop, hence scum

 

Scum does not nightkill EM and Kazio (they are in this case either scum or under heavy suspicion)

 

Scum does not kill RoT -> he is scum

 

Scum kills either me, d3mon, KevinH or SirCroc. Suppose nightkilled guy is real cop. RoT is exposed -> EM and Kazio under heavy suspicion, but not conformed.

 

Real cop is not killed. RoT is under suspicion as scum but we do not know for sure because scum may have intentionally left him alive for reasons as explained above.

 

 

So, any holes in my analysis?

Now going back to your previous post,

I was wondering why you would like us to

know that you would have joined in the lynching

of KF2001 if you came in earlier

 

I just wanted to make sure people knew where I stood on the matter. It's the only way people can properly access the other characters. I didn't want to seem elusive in why I was/was not voting.

 

As for the rest, I'm glad there is some discussion going, rather than a quick "oh role claims must be legit" response.

 

It has been pointed out a few times that it is strange all these role claims seemed to suppose the next one was coming. They all seemed to refer to other roles as if they were already claimed, they all assumed the next was coming. It seems all like a well coordinated rouse to me. There have been some questions concerning "why now" or "why would they take on so much exposure." I think there is a pretty good answer, are votes are still pretty random in who we're going after. As our numbers have dwindled we get closer and closer to lynching a scum. This is a great opportunity to use the confusion to their advantage and seal the deal today without trouble.

 

We need five for the full majority, and three for the half? Is that right? Does that mean the scum can pile on and take if we don't make a decision?

Beebs you're scum, admit it.

The proposed roles:

reign of terror - COP

Kaziocore - MASON

Electric Mango - MASON

 

The rest of us:

BeeBs

d3mon

Imran Ehsan

KevinH

SirCrocodile

 

Vote: No lynch

 

Kevin, Kevin, Kevin, you are making this too easy for us. I've been suspicious of you before this post for reasons already mentioned and your last post is icing on the cake. 1st let me ask everyone a question. What is one thing that Kevin consistently does during every game of mafia? For those that have ever played with him, it's an easy answer. Follow the cop, follow the cop, follow the cop. He never wants to Day1 lynch because he's afraid we may end up lynching the cop. "Let's play follow the cop", he says. Now RoT claims cop, no one counter claims and Kevin suddenly does not want to follow the cop?!?

 

Did I hear you correctly Kevin? RoT says BeeBs is scum and you think the best answer is to NOT lynch him? What happened to "follow the cop" Kevin? You and BeeBs are scum, you know it and I know it.

 

Vote: BeeBs

Kevin, Kevin, Kevin, you are making this too easy for us. I've been suspicious of you before this post for reasons already mentioned and your last post is icing on the cake. 1st let me ask everyone a question. What is one thing that Kevin consistently does during every game of mafia? For those that have ever played with him, it's an easy answer. Follow the cop, follow the cop, follow the cop. He never wants to Day1 lynch because he's afraid we may end up lynching the cop. "Let's play follow the cop", he says. Now RoT claims cop, no one counter claims and Kevin suddenly does not want to follow the cop?!?

 

Did I hear you correctly Kevin? RoT says BeeBs is scum and you think the best answer is to NOT lynch him? What happened to "follow the cop" Kevin? You and BeeBs are scum, you know it and I know it.

 

Vote: BeeBs

 

Well, i can't speak for KevinH, but I do know that with the numbers we have know the rest of us don't have much choice on who to vote for with some many active role claims dominating discussion.

Have I ever asked for the cop to role-claim early? No.

 

With the doc dead, is it safe for the cop to role-claim? No.

 

I am only saying that the three proposed roles could possibly all be false.

 

If d3mon and Imran Ehsan want to lynch BeeBs, I'll go along with it. Otherwise, let the night-kill point the way.

 

By the way, Imran Ehsan gave good analysis. It has the assumption that he is townie but I understand that from his perspective.

Are you saying even before all these roleclaims, your plan is to no-lynch?

Well, i can't speak for KevinH, but I do know that with the numbers we have know the rest of us don't have much choice on who to vote for with some many active role claims dominating discussion.

 

Not much choice really since no one has counter claimed to be the real cop. And no one has yet given any reason as to why the real cop may be staying silent now too.

 

So at this point if RoT is fake only SirCroc could be the real cop, who is inactive. From his previous posts I doubt very much that SirCroc was a cop.

This is getting really interesting. It seems that all I have to do atm is "vote for BeeBs" and the town has the game in the bag..

The problem is, I still can't understand how RoT was able to guess EM's role..

 

@RoT, am I missing something?

 

On the other hand, if BeeBs is scum.. then mafia is not doing a great job at defending themselves.. a fake cop claim is pretty easy and would have thrown EM's strategy out of the window.. (tbh, if I was scum, I would have done it by now)

 

Now, another part of the puzzle is KevinH's actions, I have to agree with EM that they don't match what I usually expect from him.. (his hammer vote on KF2001 is another example..)

 

Anyhow, since I am still not sure that RoT is the cop.. I will need more evidence..

 

@RoT, can you paraphrase your role PM?

Are you saying even before all these roleclaims, your plan is to no-lynch?

Before the roleclaims, I would have lynched and hoped to get lucky. Now there is a clear choice of sides, or at least a set of three that will all be scum or all be townie.

Have I ever asked for the cop to role-claim early? No.

 

With the doc dead, is it safe for the cop to role-claim? No.

 

I am only saying that the three proposed roles could possibly all be false.

 

You side stepped my entire argument against you. The point was not if you asked the cop to role-claim and the point was not is it safe for the cop to role-claim. My point was the cop did role-claim and now you don't want to do anything about it? You are Kevin "Follow The Cop" H, and you are playing completely different than your past playing styles. The expression, "I would eat my shoe if I'm wrong" comes to mind.

This is getting really interesting. It seems that all I have to do atm is "vote for BeeBs" and the town has the game in the bag..

The problem is, I still can't understand how RoT was able to guess EM's role..

 

@RoT, am I missing something?

 

On the other hand, if BeeBs is scum.. then mafia is not doing a great job at defending themselves.. a fake cop claim is pretty easy and would have thrown EM's strategy out of the window.. (tbh, if I was scum, I would have done it by now)

 

Now, another part of the puzzle is KevinH's actions, I have to agree with EM that they don't match what I usually expect from him.. (his hammer vote on KF2001 is another example..)

 

Anyhow, since I am still not sure that RoT is the cop.. I will need more evidence..

 

@RoT, can you paraphrase your role PM?

 

Thanks for not cutting anyone to the quick and ending this all early. As you pointed out, you probably have the power to do so.

 

I guess I feel like your post sort of echo my cries for help. Thanks for being reasonable, at least that might vindicate me a bit if my head comes off my shoulders. I hope we hear from RoT on these points.

I am only saying that the three proposed roles could possibly all be false.

Is this sidestepping the issue?

 

Imagine if you would ...

 

The Scene: The Scum Lair

The Time: Last night

The Characters: Reign of Terror (RoT), Kaziocore (K), and Electric Mango (EM)

 

(lights gradually rise, revealing three mafia)

 

EM: OK, fellow scum-mates, I have a plan that will win this for us.

K: What is it?

RoT: Yes, please tell!

EM: I'm betting that since there have been no hints from a cop, it's SirCrocodile.

K: Or maybe there isn't one.

EM: Possibly, but either way, I'm sure I can goad KevinH into following the cop if one of you role-claim as the cop.

RoT: I'll do it. I can pretend to be the cop and finger BeeBs.

EM: If KevinH joins us, then we'll have four votes which is enough to lynch at deadline.

K: But how will we convince everyone that we're townies?

EM: Easy. You and I claim to be Masons and vouch for each other.

RoT: Brilliant! Then as the cop, I'll be a third confirmed townie and the rest of the players will think they are joining the other townies in lynching a confirmed scum.

K: And once we lynch a townie and get another night-kill, we'll win the game!

RoT: But what if KevinH decides to lead another movement to no-lynch. Then we'll be foiled.

EM: Leave that to me. I'm sure I can either force him to join us or convince the other townies that *he's* scum.

K: Now that would be funny. I'll send in tonight's night-kill, let's hope we get the doc rather than the cop so this plan works...

 

(fade to black)

If RoT is not the real cop as what you would want to believe KevinH,

why did he not choose a much easier target like for example SirCrocodile?

 

Well at least now we really know who you're sided with

If RoT is not the real cop as what you would want to believe KevinH,

why did he not choose a much easier target like for example SirCrocodile?

 

Well at least now we really know who you're sided with

 

How can you be sure that RoT is the cop?? Tbh, every post from you, EM and RoT seems to indicate that you are working together...

 

Also, I noticed that RoT was reading this thread yesterday and has decided not to answer my questions.. so here it goes

 

Vote : reign of terror

I'm glad you voted RoT d3mon, now I'm sure who's side you're really on.

 

Also Kevin, you did a very good job writing your work of fiction, it reminded me of watching Iraq's Minister of Intelligence on CNN. Still a good read, I would recommend to friends.

 

My mafia list includes:

BeeBs

KevinH

d3mon

For all I know, the role claimers could be telling the truth.

 

It seems interesting, though, that my plausible doubts are met with accusations of scumminess.

 

As an alternative theory, maybe it's Electric Mango, Kaziocore, and BeeBs that are the scum.

The cop is already dead so that would be a safe plan.

In my alternative plan, I meant to say that they wanted to draw the real cop out.

Reign of Terror doesn't really know that the Masons are whom they say they are.

ccabal86 town doc was found dead

 

day 3 begins

 

you have 1 week

 

sorry for delay

We're past the week. When's the new deadline?

Sorry for the delay in answering these questions. Had to get them awards out...

 

This is getting really interesting. It seems that all I have to do atm is "vote for BeeBs" and the town has the game in the bag..

The problem is, I still can't understand how RoT was able to guess EM's role..

 

@RoT, am I missing something?

 

Nope, I'm not even entirely sure that they are townie, I just had a strong feeling that they were. I took a risk in coming out as the cop, and so I hope it pays off in the end. I find it interesting that you voted for me. You lost a couple townie points there in my book. If you don't change your vote and you aren't a mafia, then the mafia can rush a vote on me at the end of the day.

 

Anyhow, since I am still not sure that RoT is the cop.. I will need more evidence..

 

@RoT, can you paraphrase your role PM?

 

All that my role PM said was that I'm the cop, nothing more, nothing less. No instructions or anything of that nature.

If you don't change your vote and you aren't a mafia, then the mafia can rush a vote on me at the end of the day.

 

RoT's post here was addressing D3mon.

 

In that case, D3mon and I are both townies. If RoT thinks that the mafia can rush vote him to death he must also think that we're both townies or there wouldn't be three mafia left to get the five vote majority. (I think we all rightly assume there are three mafia.)

 

I think he carefully constructed the ploy, and has now slipped up and revealed the truth in this sort of off the cuff accusation!

Unofficial Vote Count

 

Beebs - 3 Votes (Reign of Terror, Isram Eshan, Electric Mango)

Reign of Terror - 2 Votes (Beebs, d3mon)

No Lynch - 1 Vote (KevinH)

 

Not Voting: SirCrocodile, Kaziocore

Vote: BeeBs

 

As an alternative theory, maybe it's Electric Mango, Kaziocore, and BeeBs that are the scum.

The cop is already dead so that would be a safe plan.

 

Or it's really BeeBs, d3mon, and you?

Nope, I'm not even entirely sure that they are townie, I just had a strong feeling that they were. I took a risk in coming out as the cop, and so I hope it pays off in the end. I find it interesting that you voted for me. You lost a couple townie points there in my book. If you don't change your vote and you aren't a mafia, then the mafia can rush a vote on me at the end of the day.

 

Hm.. so on the basis of your "feeling" you were not only able to guess EM's role but were also able to guess the mechanics of his role.. (at the time of this post EM has not revealed his role)

 

I also suspect that EM is a mason which means that he has another townie that he can talk to in another place. This is why I believed that he has another townie to confirm him. We need EM or the other person to roleclaim to prove this once and for all. I'm positive that BeeBs is mafia despite his claims. Vote - BeeBs

 

Also, if I believe your role claim, can you explain why you voted for KF2001 on day 2? (since you knew that BeeBs was scum)

 

I'm gonna have to go with KF2001 as my target.

 

Vote-KF2001

Hm.. so on the basis of your "feeling" you were not only able to guess EM's role but were also able to guess the mechanics of his role.. (at the time of this post EM has not revealed his role)

 

Amazingly, yes. Once again though, I'm not sure that they are townie.

 

Also, if I believe your role claim, can you explain why you voted for KF2001 on day 2? (since you knew that BeeBs was scum)

 

In the beginning of day 2 I left a couple of posts that attempted to point out that BeeBs was mafia without revealing my role. Unfortunately nobody picked up on that, and I voted for KF2001 instead because I thought he was scum at that point and time.

 

RoT's post here was addressing D3mon.

 

In that case, D3mon and I are both townies. If RoT thinks that the mafia can rush vote him to death he must also think that we're both townies or there wouldn't be three mafia left to get the five vote majority. (I think we all rightly assume there are three mafia.)

 

I think he carefully constructed the ploy, and has now slipped up and revealed the truth in this sort of off the cuff accusation!

 

Umm, nice try. I was saying that because of the two votes for me, the mafia could get a half-majority lynch on me at the end of the day. This would only work if one of the people voting for me was townie. The only person that could possibly be townie of the people voting for me is D3mon because i already investigated you and know that you are mafia. I'm starting to lean toward both you and D3mon being mafia because of your attack on me.