79 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

Even if it's mafia rather than werewolves, we still outnumber them and can win if we get lucky.

Why did they pick Imran Ehsan?

[Rafay]

Mayb they had an ability and found out Imran was cop.

[Alternate_Tree]

I think all the abilities of everyone are given to us in the descriptions by Kaz since he made a point of clarifying the sanity thing. Probably just a lucky guess, and since Imran is probably the most organized person of the group, a good choice in any event

[KevinH]

To improve the chances of confirming townies, I propose dividing into two groups:

Group A
1. Xx Karl xX
2. Imran Ehsan
3. Alternate_Tree
4. KevinH

Group B
5. d3mon
6. Rafay
7. cam177

If the Powerball selected on September 26 is odd, then they should pick someone from Group A.
If it's even, choose someone from Group B.

The Powerball was 10. The cop and seer should have investigated players from Group B. If I was scum, I would have wanted to night-kill a potentially confirmed townie from Group B.

Instead, the scum picked someone from Group A. Why?

[Rafay]

Huh? Kevin I don't get it???

R u saying that the scum is basically using powerball technique to pick it's victims.

[Kaziocore]

Not Voting (6): Alternate_Tree, cam177, d3mon, KevinH, Rafay, Xx Karl xX

Deadline: Sunday, 7th of October

Votes needed to lynch: 4
Votes needed on deadline: 2

Edited by Kaziocore, 30 September 2012 - 12:55 PM.

[cam177]

The Powerball was 10. The cop and seer should have investigated players from Group B. If I was scum, I would have wanted to night-kill a potentially confirmed townie from Group B.

Instead, the scum picked someone from Group A. Why?

I dont know why they didnt go with the power ball but it is clearly a good idea to have a lynch now

[Xx Karl xX]

Huh? Kevin I don't get it???

R u saying that the scum is basically using powerball technique to pick it's victims.

No, he's saying that since the powerball was 10, that if the cop and seer did what he suggested, they would have investigated someone in group B. and so one would think that the scum would have killed someone in that group hoping to get the person that was investigated. but for some reason they decided to go with Imran. Who know why they did it, but it seems to have worked out for them >.<

[d3mon]

I dont know why they didnt go with the power ball but it is clearly a good idea to have a lynch now

Well.. if we mis lynch today, we loose. I am not sure if lynching is a good idea.

[Alternate_Tree]

So our options
A: We lynch without seer info, 2/3 chance we get the wrong person and then they night kill and win
B: The seer roleclaims, confirms a townie, we lynch and have 50/50 chance with the lynch, we guess right/wrong, the seer dies during the night phase and it's just a guessing game
C: The seer roleclaims, found a werewolf/mafia, we lynch them, and then one is left, but the seer dies at night and then it's 3 to 1 with no more night activities except the werewolf/mafia
D: We don't lynch, the werewolf/mafia kill again, the seer may or may not survive the night, it's down to 2 werewolf/mafia, and 3 not werewolf/mafia

Whatever the case, it's pretty grim for the town

[Alternate_Tree]

Or option E, a false seer roleclaims, and then a townie is lynched by mistake and the werewolf/mafia win

[Xx Karl xX]

Hmm...well i don't think the seer should role claim as it would basically be pointless since it won't prove anything since we don't even know if there are werewolves. the only time the seer should role claim is if they get an investigation that says someone is a werewolf. But now onto the dilemma of what to do today. if we lynch and get it wrong we lose. and if we no lynch today, then tomorrow we will have to lynch correctly or lose, and honestly i don't think the seer is going to turn the tide of the game. we don't even know if his role is useful, and if it is, the chances of him investigating the scum is the same chance we have to lynch the scum. So since we're in a crap position, i think we have to make the crap choice and just lynch someone randomly today. so because of that:

Vote: Rafay

Why? honestly it's because i pulled up a random number generator and his number came up. If i'm wrong then i guess the scum will pile on and we lose. but it doesn't matter because we will be in pretty much the same position tomorrow since right now we have 1/3 chance of getting the scum and tomorrow we would only have 2/5 chance of getting the scum. that's only like a 7% better chance to get the scum. so why delay the inevitable and hope that the seer magically investigates the scum? Time to nut up or shut up.

[KevinH]

No, he's saying that since the powerball was 10, that if the cop and seer did what he suggested, they would have investigated someone in group B. and so one would think that the scum would have killed someone in that group hoping to get the person that was investigated. but for some reason they decided to go with Imran. Who know why they did it, but it seems to have worked out for them >.<

Karl understands me. He must be townie.

Vote: Rafay

We might as well lynch now. We need to get lucky regardless. I trust Karl and his luck.

[Alternate_Tree]

Well, to get the ball rolling, either good or bad, I'll trust Karl's luck

Vote: Rafay

[d3mon]

I see scum trying to bandwagon.

Vote:Alternate_Tree

[cam177]

Hmm...well i don't think the seer should role claim as it would basically be pointless since it won't prove anything since we don't even know if there are werewolves. the only time the seer should role claim is if they get an investigation that says someone is a werewolf. But now onto the dilemma of what to do today. if we lynch and get it wrong we lose. and if we no lynch today, then tomorrow we will have to lynch correctly or lose, and honestly i don't think the seer is going to turn the tide of the game. we don't even know if his role is useful, and if it is, the chances of him investigating the scum is the same chance we have to lynch the scum. So since we're in a crap position, i think we have to make the crap choice and just lynch someone randomly today. so because of that:

Vote: Rafay

Why? honestly it's because i pulled up a random number generator and his number came up. If i'm wrong then i guess the scum will pile on and we lose. but it doesn't matter because we will be in pretty much the same position tomorrow since right now we have 1/3 chance of getting the scum and tomorrow we would only have 2/5 chance of getting the scum. that's only like a 7% better chance to get the scum. so why delay the inevitable and hope that the seer magically investigates the scum? Time to nut up or shut up.

I cant deny your logic it makes perfect sense and with us not being sure what were up against we can easily say we have a 50 percent chance that it is either a werewolf or a Mafia setup. We can also say that currently there is what a 1/6th chance of us getting the seer. and then again there is a 50% chance of the seer being useful. So with that knowledge I:

• Vote: Rafay
• Hope that we are making a good choice and it isnt the seer and if it is the seer that they had no real power that could benefit the town (hopefully were up against mafia)

[Rafay]

Wait so you're just gonna lynch me cuz of a random number generator.

OK well you wanted it you got it. i'm a seer cop you fools now look wat you've done. You've lost your only advantage.

I investigated KevinH. He was clean. Now look wat you've done. You've basically handed the game to them on a silver platter.

[Kaziocore]

Rafay (4): Xx Karl xX, KevinH, Alternate_Tree, cam177
Alternate_Tree (1): d3mon

Not Voting (1): Rafay

Deadline: Sunday, 7th of October

Votes needed to lynch: 4
Votes needed on deadline: 2

Rafay, Werewolf, was lynched

IT IS NOW NIGHT TWO.
NIGHT ACTIONS TO ME BY THURSDAY.

[Kaziocore]

Xx Karl xX, Vanilla Townie, was found dead

DAY 3 starts
Deadline: Thursday, 11th of October at exactly the same time I posted this

Votes needed to lynch: 3
Votes needed during deadline: 2

[Alternate_Tree]

I investigated KevinH. He was clean. Now look wat you've done. You've basically handed the game to them on a silver platter.

So Rafay throws suspicion on KevinH, I don't think this implicates KevinH as a werewolf because it was after there were enough votes to lynch Rafay, so he probably wouldn't give up his partner.

The seer is still alive, so they know between 0-2 of the 3 people besides himself, depending on how lucky he got.

I see two ways to play this, we can follow the seer; they can give us what evidence they have if they think it is sufficient to end the game, or if they aren't sure, if they have investigated someone who is already dead, we go with a no lynch and then see what evidence tomorrow brings.

The werewolf has a 1/3 chance of killing the seer, and then it'd be just a guessing game between whoever is alive at that point.

It seems like we might want to try to end it today with a lynch, but I don't really know who