TOWN:

Chaplain of Death - generally is actively scum hunting and it feels natural. Also appears town because of his ragequit attempt because of Xarastier

Xarastier - as much as this sounds ridiculous, i think Xarastier is telling the truth. i don't think a newbie could pull-off (includes being brave enough) a fake claim

Imran Ehsan - right now, a weak town read on Imran Ehsan. he's attempting to scum hunt. I say weak because almost all of his reads say he's suspicious of the person.

the problem here is because you're not committed to anything, it's easier to join any wagon and reason out that you "suspected" him before.

 

NULL:

D3mon - suspected before but I feel better about this slot because of noting Lorikz Kain's behavior. IF LK is scum, d3mon is probably town

Rafay - it's hard to read Rafay when he's too defensive as both town and scum

Xx Karl xX - don't have much to say about Xx Karl xX.

Noahband - OMGUS vote but yeah he could either be newb town or newb scum at this point

killgor - aside from defending Xarastier when he role claimed which is slight town, nothing much can be read

 

SUSPICIOUS:

Electric Mango - listing who he thinks is scum without stating his reasons is scummy because it looks opportunistic.

later he could freely vote everyone from the list. If he's asked, he could invent some excuse.

 

Alternate_Tree - no attempt at scum hunting whatsoever. he is either lazy or lurking scum. i don't believe that you have nothing to say

 

Lorikz Kain - reasons already stated when I voted him

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We need more activity guys. It's hard to read on players if they're barely posting. Scum could then hide with the inactive town players.

No one should quick hammer

 

MOD: At what specific time is the deadline?

you can reveal your role? huh.

 

Well at this stage it would hardly matter, if everyone is so content on seeing me as scum then i doubt they would believe me to be a townie.

Plus people keep assuming either of my votes were random which I can assure you not a single one was. The original I explained the reasoning behind, not random. The vote switch was because EM was getting close to needed votes to by lynched by deadline and I felt d3mon was a highly more likely possibility of scum than EM so I figured I would try switching the lynch vote to D3mon. However as I stated I somehow missed the couple of posts leading up to my vote switch which in turn distupted the whole reason of my vote switch.

 

Take it or leave it nothing I have done up to this point has been random and I'm not willing to reveal my role. Especially when the first 2 people I suggest are scum are the very first ones to jump on the lynch me bandwagon. For all I know I got it right with them and they are trying to silence me from the start. Whatever everyone chooses to do I will not reveal my role I will stand firm in my choices for better or worst and if I'm lynch then you will all simply see how wrong you were and maybe then take stock in what I have said.

 

Regardless of my unusual vote hoping I accomplished what I set out to do with it, (although I hadnt intented to make my self the target in doing so lol)

 

vote:noahband my original thoughts have yet to be disproved

You actually never listed any reason and said you had beliefs that you would not explain. So to all of us it sounds like you are random voting, especially since noah hasn't done anything scummy all game except be inactive until he "OMGUS'd" at you. I therefore find it hard to believe that your vote was anything other than random, and what you said in your post when you switched votes was quite obvious that you are looking to bandwagon someone whoever than someone may be.

 

Also how is D3mon more likely to be scum than anyone? Kazio random voted him to get things going because he voted no-lynch, there was no real reason. Electric also voted for D3mon, his reason was that kazio made a good point about how D3mon was voting no-lynch, what point is made there?

 

In saying you had a reason to vote for D3mon at all, or a reason for to vote for noah, my belief that you are scum has only increased.

Replying to Kaz, yeah I guess I am lazy.  This week is the first week of the new semester, and I just haven't been feeling like posting stuff.  I never really feel like lynching the first day is a good idea because it usually doesn't give any information on the people because they can claim it made sense at the time versus whatever "proof" they're scum.  The fast votes for Lorikz are suspicious to me, but I don't see a reason to change my vote

Still think something fishy's going on b/w Kaz and EM hence my vote stays.

Well whatever happens at least we finally got some worthy discussion going on during the first day. This is why I hate when people vote no lynch on Day 1. I have things to post still today but need to sit down on a Pc instead of my mobile device.

LK, you now have enough votes to be lynched at deadline. If you are townie, you should do all in your power to prevent a townie from being lynched and that includes you.

 

I hate lyching on day 1 because its always based on hunches. Now, I usually try to judge people by the way they are playing and when you have played with the same people a number of times, it becomes easier to judge them.

 

Now, I haven't played enough games with you to judge you based on that but bandwagoning and unvoting is in my experience one of the surest signs of scum. I might be wrong but help me make the right decision.

The problem is too many take actions at face value rather than looking looking deeper.

 

I am a townie and aside from telling the truth there isn't much i can present to prove my innocents. However I can tell you that my seemingly random voting habits were not random at all. The original was vote for noahband as i explained before, but seem to need to explain again, was based off of math, consensual agreement and my existing knowledge. Math being there are a total of 12 players and in discussion most seem to agree that there are probably 3 scum. I can then subtract myself and the one other person I know for sure is a townie and now we are down to 10 unknowns with 30% probably being scum. Based on those odds if I was to draw at random there is a 70% chance that the first one I pick is a townie. Probably the second and third as well. Based on the odds I took the 4th one I drew and decided that statistically there is a higher chance that this one is scum that the first 3. I'm not willing to base a vote off of that alone however so i went back and checked on what he had said in the past. I noticed no real significant input while dodging a questions by EM yet doing all this in an inconspicuous manor. Thus I voted for him in the hopes of gathering more information and quite frankly it has worked.

Granted despite this its still day 1 and I don't have enough evidence to back up my claim I can only hope others at least keep him as a person of interest.

 

Before I had saw kazio's vote change I saw the voting as this:

 

Vote count:
Chaplain of Death (2): Xarastier, Killgor
D3mon (2): Kaziocore, Electric Mango.
Noahband (2): Lorikz Kain, Xx Karl xX
Electric Mango (2): Rafay, Chaplain of death

Lorikz Kain (1): Noahband

 

Being you would need 4 at deadline to lynch there was a decent chance one of the people with 2 votes for them could be lynched if 2 or 3 scum jumped votes before update. So I had hoped to influence the lynch more towards the one I believed is most likely to be scum by voting for D3mon. (best defense being a good offense)

However because I somehow missed kazio's vote change it just looks quite silly. Maybe its because I left the tab open so it never refreshed? I tend to do that on occasion idk. Point being I have once again explained my reasoning. Nothing is random, everything has a purpose.

 

Seeing as I managed to pull the votes off of those I wanted to I have now gone back to voting for noahband. I accomplished my reason for unvoting him in the first place so why wouldn't I go back to who I believe to be scum? Not to mention ill point it out again that the two I stated were scum were the same two who first started the lynch LK bandwagon... coincidence?
 

The problem is too many take actions at face value rather than looking looking deeper.

 

I am a townie and aside from telling the truth there isn't much i can present to prove my innocents. However I can tell you that my seemingly random voting habits were not random at all. The original was vote for noahband as i explained before, but seem to need to explain again, was based off of math, consensual agreement and my existing knowledge. Math being there are a total of 12 players and in discussion most seem to agree that there are probably 3 scum. I can then subtract myself and the one other person I know for sure is a townie and now we are down to 10 unknowns with 30% probably being scum. Based on those odds if I was to draw at random there is a 70% chance that the first one I pick is a townie. Probably the second and third as well. Based on the odds I took the 4th one I drew and decided that statistically there is a higher chance that this one is scum that the first 3. I'm not willing to base a vote off of that alone however so i went back and checked on what he had said in the past. I noticed no real significant input while dodging a questions by EM yet doing all this in an inconspicuous manor. Thus I voted for him in the hopes of gathering more information and quite frankly it has worked.

Granted despite this its still day 1 and I don't have enough evidence to back up my claim I can only hope others at least keep him as a person of interest.

 

Before I had saw kazio's vote change I saw the voting as this:

 

Vote count:

Chaplain of Death (2): Xarastier, Killgor

D3mon (2): Kaziocore, Electric Mango.

Noahband (2): Lorikz Kain, Xx Karl xX

Electric Mango (2): Rafay, Chaplain of death

Lorikz Kain (1): Noahband

 

Being you would need 4 at deadline to lynch there was a decent chance one of the people with 2 votes for them could be lynched if 2 or 3 scum jumped votes before update. So I had hoped to influence the lynch more towards the one I believed is most likely to be scum by voting for D3mon. (best defense being a good offense)

However because I somehow missed kazio's vote change it just looks quite silly. Maybe its because I left the tab open so it never refreshed? I tend to do that on occasion idk. Point being I have once again explained my reasoning. Nothing is random, everything has a purpose.

 

Seeing as I managed to pull the votes off of those I wanted to I have now gone back to voting for noahband. I accomplished my reason for unvoting him in the first place so why wouldn't I go back to who I believe to be scum? Not to mention ill point it out again that the two I stated were scum were the same two who first started the lynch LK bandwagon... coincidence?

 

 

So, if I am reading this right, you are claiming to have a Mason or a Neighbor role. Which would mean that there is someone out there who can vouch for you. I would love to hear everyone's opinion about whether this guy should roleclaim and vouch for LK. Imho, him roleclaiming is better than say letting LK be lynched.

 

Anyhow, mathematics was never my strongest suit but if you are saying that you randomly picked up names and believe that the 4th name picked had a higher than 30% probability of being scum then that is incorrect. I am not dismissing the rest of your analysis but from a mathematical point of view each of those 4 have exactly 30% probability of being scum.

 

While, I don't agree with the reason for which noah initially voted for you i.e. revenge, my vote was never just a OMGUS vote, if that was the case, I would've voted for EM or Kazio before you.

Lorikz Kain basically role claimed he was a Mason.  Should his partner come forward and collaborate his story is the question put forth.

 

Reasons to come forward:

 

We would have 2 confirmed townies

If no one steps forward we know LK is scum

We prevent the lynching of an innocent townie today and instead have a chance at lynching scum

 

 

Reasons to not come forward:

 

Leaves an unknown vanilla townie behind to act as cannon fodder for scum night kills so that other power roles can continue.

 

 

I believe at this point it is in the towns best interest for the 2nd mason to step up and confirm their role.

Ok, I'm the other mason.  I am role claiming for the above reasons and am doing this now because of the impending Day 1 end.  

 

To make it brief:

 

Townies:

 Electric Mango  - Mason

 Lorikz Kain - Mason

 Chaplain of Death - There is no way someone rages like that and isn't town

 Xarastier - Watcher

 Kaziocore - Playing hard nose and aggressive.  Pushing conversation, making stands, ACTUALLY saying meaningful things.  

 Killgor - He was pushing hard for Chaplains death and sticking to his guns.  Townie, count it.

 

That leaves :

 

Alternate_Tree

D3mon
Imran Ehsan
Noahband
Rafay

Xx Karl xX

 

 

I originally had Imran pegged for town, but after giving everything another read I'm not so sure so I have downgraded him back into my suspect pool.  

 

I feel strongly that our 3 scum are among these 6. 

 

I haven't got any strong scum tells from any of them but D3mon shows promise.  I get a feeling when I read his posts that he is trying to contribute to the conversation but is being careful in what he says.  My spidey sense is tingling. 

 

I invite you all to join me in lynching him.

 

 

I wasn't gonna make you role claim for my stupidity but thanks.

 

Also the idea behind throwing out the first couple was because with 3 scum to 7 townies one picked at random is almost guaranteed to be a townie on first pick (70% chance), next chance was 66%, 62%, 57%. Either way I just did that to narrow it down but didn't choose to vote until after I went through and read posts of his I found suspicious.

 

Anyways, the fact that myself and EM are both masons really makes my voting no reasons pretty clear cut. Why wouldn't I try to bandwagon lynch someone a known townie and fellow role mate thinks to be scum? At the time I thought I was adding a third vote on to a potential scum but after missing some vital posts I just slapped myself in the face.

 

Anyways, at this point I might as well just go with EMs choice of D3mon for lynching

vote d3mon

 

Whether my stupidity kills me or not at least I helped spur the game along. If I'm lynched you will all know how foolish you were for not listening to me and that EM is for sure a townie so at least some good will come of it should that happen.

Ok, I'm the other mason.  I am role claiming for the above reasons and am doing this now because of the impending Day 1 end.  

 

To make it brief:

 

Townies:

 Electric Mango  - Mason

 Lorikz Kain - Mason

 Chaplain of Death - There is no way someone rages like that and isn't town

 Xarastier - Watcher

 Kaziocore - Playing hard nose and aggressive.  Pushing conversation, making stands, ACTUALLY saying meaningful things.  

 Killgor - He was pushing hard for Chaplains death and sticking to his guns.  Townie, count it.

 

That leaves :

 

Alternate_Tree

D3mon

Imran Ehsan

Noahband

Rafay

Xx Karl xX

 

 

I originally had Imran pegged for town, but after giving everything another read I'm not so sure so I have downgraded him back into my suspect pool.  

 

I feel strongly that our 3 scum are among these 6. 

 

I haven't got any strong scum tells from any of them but D3mon shows promise.  I get a feeling when I read his posts that he is trying to contribute to the conversation but is being careful in what he says.  My spidey sense is tingling. 

 

I invite you all to join me in lynching him.

 

Its good to know that you have decided to expand your list from 5 to 6. But I believe your role claim.

 

Unvote

 

If others decide that I should be lynched then I am not going to fight it as this would come in handy to point out why lynches on day 1 are a bad idea.

I wasn't gonna make you role claim for my stupidity but thanks.

 

Also the idea behind throwing out the first couple was because with 3 scum to 7 townies one picked at random is almost guaranteed to be a townie on first pick (70% chance), next chance was 66%, 62%, 57%. Either way I just did that to narrow it down but didn't choose to vote until after I went through and read posts of his I found suspicious.

 

LK, with all due respect, the maths is still wrong. You are calculating probabilities with one set of dependencies i.e. you are not considering all the scenarios

 

Probability

 

First pick is townie : 70%

Second pick is townie: Probability of first being townie (7/10) x Probability of second being townie (6/9) + Probability of first being scum (3/10) x Probability of second being townie (7/9) = 70%

 

You will find that if you work this out for any (nth) pick the probability will remain the same.

"'Where did you go to, if I may ask?' said Thorin to Gandalf as they rode along.
'To look ahead,' said he.
'And what brought you back in the nick of time?'
'Looking behind,' said he."
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Hobbit



Vote count:
Lorikz Kain (4): Noahband, Imran Ehsan, Chaplain of Death, Kaziocore
Chaplain of Death (2): Xarastier, Killgor
D3mon (2): Electric Mango, Lorikz Kain
Noahband (1): Xx Karl xX
Electric Mango (1): Rafay
No-Lynch (1): Alternate_Tree

Not voting (1): D3mon

Deadline is Saturday, February 2. (at Elevensies)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch, or 4 at deadline.

wait... what's a mason do and what are the chances of them being fake claimed?

Not to be that guy or anything but....... I have to examine all possibilities here.

 

1. You and Electric are both townie.

 

2. You and Electric are both scum and trying to lead us astray.

 

 

And while I have no strong evidence against electric, I find it ironic that someone who was on my shortlist of scum is the one who comes to back you up when you mess up. This leaves me somewhere in the middle between the first and second possibilities.

 

I again would like to remind the townies that we really need you guys to be more careful and stop looking so scummy. Right now, there are about 5 people who look scummy to me for various reasons. Many I have already listed in previous posts, but those 5 are still as follows.

 

Electric Mango (for reasons already explained as well as the potential of this role claim to be false)

Lorikz (this is only based on the recent developments and this role claim in which you did not list what you were but that instead that you knew one other townie.)

Xarastier (because he appears to have lied. could have been a newb mistake, but could have been designed)

Killgor (based on his complete dedication to lynching me with the no evidence that he has, despite everyone agreeing that I am townie at this point)

Rafay (is either role playing a stoner VERY well or is trying as hard as possible to appear active without actually contributing anything other than "dont lynch me plz".)

 

obviously I'm not saying that any of those listed are, without a doubt, scum. However, those are the most scummy looking in my eyes right now, so if you are on this list and are townie, please get your act together.

 

While d3mon hasn't said or done anything that screams townie to me, niether has he done anything that has set off any scum alarms for me. Your saying hes being careful, but who wouldn't be when they have someone trying to band wagon them without a legit reason. If you do not give scum a potential excuse to band wagon a townie and get away with it then you are playing the game the way a townie should. That entails paying attention to what others are saying as well as what you say, and how you say it.

 

This again, sets off a scum alarm in my mind for Electric, especially since after last game I remarked about how we had discovered him too late because of his change in play style (not scum hunting at all). I don't see a whole lot of scum hunting going on right now from electric, hes trying to bandwagon someone who hasn't done anything based on a random vote that kazio placed on him.

 

At this point I'm coming to the thought that we should lynch Electric as it provides us with the most information. If Electric is a townie, then we have proven beyond a reasonable doubt that LK is also a townie, if Electric is scum then we have proven beyond a reasonable doubt that LK is scum and d3mon is a townie.

 

In contrast, if we lynch LK, and he is townie, then we can confirm Electric, and if LK is scum we can confirm Electric, but we gain nothing about any other player. If we lynch Electric though, we confirm a townie without a doubt whatever he turns out to be.

 

Therefore:

Unvote: Lorikz Kain

 

Vote: Electric Mango

To answer your question Killgor, a mason is a townie who can converse at night or at any time in private with other masons (GM may make it only at night or whenever). So basically they are saying that they know who each other are because they can converse at night (if they are telling the truth).

 

I don't know whether the GM usually puts in a mason's role pm who the other mason's in the game are or if you find out when you converse at night though, which would be interesting to hear seeing as we haven't had a night phase yet so to know who each other are they would have had have recieved in their role PM the name of the other mason.

 

Kazio, in your experience does the GM usually say in the role PM who the other masons are, or just give you a seperate thread to talk in and let you find out at night?

why must you always insist on killing our possible power roles? it's only day1 and yet whenever someone claims something you go ahead and try to make us lynch them. i thought you were scum before but i had my doubts because let's face it... xarastier isn't the brightest bulb in the box, but now i'm almost sure of it.

sorry I've been somewhat inactive lately. After EM's roleclaim though:

 

Unvote: Lorikz Kain

sorry about the OMGUS

Unvote

 

Well Day 1 has been interesting. 3 role claims already. I dont see why we should go for a lynch now. I am not convinced d3mon is scum. And if LK and EM are telling the truth, it does not really help lynching them to find out if they really were telling the truth or not.

 

Lets go to night phase and let the power townies do their jobs.

 

Vote: No Lynch

Was going to comment more on the math thing but at this point its beating a dead horse and has lived past its intended use.

However I will say, again, that the vote was due to what I saw as suspect posts made by noahband. The vote was intended to, hopefully, spur further interaction in which it succeeded.

 

@Chaplain

Killing either myself or EM would serve the same purpose. It would only confirm the not lynched one is a townie. Switching a vote from myself to EM didn't actually change the outcome, only the name of the one hanging.

 

 

MOD, can we get a re-listing of current lynch votes?

 

I'm all confused and confufled now... yes i made that word up

...my brain has been failing me all game

The reason for me not believing the role claims as they are presented is that they are too convenient in the case of LK and EM when both were under suspicion of being scum, and with Xarastier he literally said it was a ruse so he didnt really role claim, meaning he lied. Xarastier was most likely trying to get someone to respond to him as a new player and explain why he shouldn't have done what he did and knew that he could twist what they said to make them look scummy (which is exactly what he did), which is why I still think hes scummy.

 

My point is simply that I believe that EM and LK are scum. Either way if we lynch EM instead of LK we will confirm a townie regardless of what they are because I doubt LK and EM would both go after d3mon on a bandwagon attempt so hard if he were scum.

 

You are right however LK, I did make a mistake, because if we lynch you and you turn out to be scum it would still prove Electric to be scum as well which would by extension prove that D3mon was a townie. It is therefore left entirely up to the town on which one to lynch if they do agree with my perspective.

 

It was nice how niether of answered my question on how you knew each other though. Obviously we know which way you will answer regardless of whether or not it's true, but it's funny how you avoid it all the same. (my question being how did you know about each other.)

 

 

Also, to further explain why I go after people that role-claim killgor, if you interogate someone about their role claim immediately it gives them less time to make things up. If its a legit claim they will be able to answer all of your questions (within reason). If the role claim is false and you grill them on it immediately they have a higher chance of messing up because they have to make up a role PM's worth of information from scratch. I have my doubts about these role claim because of the possibilty of them being fake, and it is my responsibility as a townie to scum hunt (aka, to do my best to make scum make a mistake).

 

In this instance that involves pointing out to the rest of the town that this could be fake and that we cant take it for fact, because those of us who pick up on things like this or know more about the game and the potential for lying have a duty to help the less experienced in the game to understand whats going on. I laid out both possibilities for their role claim, however, I find it more likely that they are scum based on my prior suspicion of Electric and that he is now coming to back up someone that was appearing quite scummy.

 

Obviously you can take or leave my analysis of whats going on, but doubting the legitimacy of what I said would be silly. I cannot prove beyond doubt that they are scum. But when it comes to Mafia you dont have to, the burden of proof lies with the accused when it comes to mafia. If we suspect you of being scum, you have to prove that you are not. I have not seen anything from Electric or LK to prove that they are not scum. The fact that all they will do is scorn my posts instead of responding to them with a thoughtful answer only strengthens my belief that they are scum.