98 replies to this topic

[Dom Zak]

So what do you guys think about North Korea's latest shens?

 

For those unfamiliar or who want to freshen up, here's an article on it:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/22/world/asia/north-korea-five-things/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

 

If anyone finds other interesting pieces on this subject, feel free to post them below.

 

Remember: Be considerate of others' opinions and remain civil (I don't think this will escalate to that however one never knows with IRON members, we have passion for many things )

[Shahenshah]

First of all, Fareed Zakaria is one of the biggest idiots in American Media, perhaps second to some of the Fox stuff.  Secondly, as the article said, usual stream of crazy from NK.

 

Any military move from NK will result in NK's regime being dead, they might be crazy, but survival is an instinct even in a donkey. 

[Aenir]

The great and glorious dear leader shall lead Best Korea to victory over the capitalist imperialists.

 

The navy stands supreme:

 

The advanced computer technologies overseen by dear leader shall lead Best Korea to victory over the capitalist imperialists.

 

[Dom Zak]

I feel like Kim Jong Un is still trying to seize power within the government because after his father's death, many family members of the family were grasping for power, including several generals iirc. I think this is his way of demonstrating his power and influence inside the country and out. I doubt anything will come to fruition because if anything did, NK would be completely obliterated by SK, the US and allies.

[The Warrior]

I personally have been following the North Korean story very closely. It appears that Kim Jong Un is trying to flex his military muscles in order to show the DPRK and the world that he is in control. Most of the hostility and rhetoric that has spewed from North Korea in the last month is in response to the harsher terms that the U.N. Security Council is sanctioning them with. They believe that they have the right to have a functioning nuclear program, but no one else in the world agrees. 

 

Kim Jong Un's regime has undermined the U.N. several times now with their ballistic missile (satellite) launch and their underground nuclear explosives testing. Their closest ally in China denounced the underground test in February and approved harsher sanctions against them.

 

It's no secret that the North and South have never really gotten along and it seems that the North may be trying to provoke an aggressive move by South Korea. This is the only scenario where it appears likely that China will react to defend North Korea. If a war does break out and the North invades the South, I do not believe that China will defend North Korea.

 

Kim Jong Un has doing nothing in my opinion to prove that he is or will be anything more than a foolish child. If they don't dial it down and start listening to the world at large, North Korea is not likely to exist under the current regime for very much longer.

 

In a full scale war with the South, the U.S. will defend South Korea and will use our superior air force to bombard North Korea every hour of every day until they surrender. I am skeptical, as are most analysts, that the North has the ability to hit the U.S. mainland with a missile. They claim that they do and they have set their missiles to target the U.S., and U.S. bases in Guam and Japan, but an attack on any of these is a death sentence for them.

 

The thought of a fullscale war is sort of terrifying, but probably unlikely. As long as South Korea doesn't allow themselves to be provoked, the North is all talk.

Edited by The Warrior, 02 April 2013 - 06:26 PM.

[ihateaaron]

TW pretty much summed that up for me. Thanks. North Korea is spouting a lot of talk. Their capabilities are currently unknown, but I seriously doubt they pose a threat, especially to the mainland here. The biggest threat is to South Korea. Potentially they could be the victims of a strike, convential or nuclear, from the North. However, it appears to be talk and internal power struggles. I think it is more of a show that is displaying Kimg Jong Un's power to his own people. He has yet to earn the "admiration" of the people like his father. Also, the sanctions are obviously hurting. If they did not hurt, then North Korea would not be reacting and throwing a tantrum about them. They are suffering for their recent decisions. Of course, not the ones making the decisions, but....

[Dom Zak]

BA and Warrior are right indeed.

 

Its funny though, the more tantrum's that Kim Jong Un throws, the more sanctions and the more firm the US and UN will be towards the DPRK. Even their closest ally, China, has been telling them to stfu and to stop acting like children (in not so many words haha)

[Iron Helix]

Kim has a nice long range wifi antenna (the parabolic grid dish on the right) in that second pic Aenir posted.  I bought one just like that for $40 on ebay.  I use it to mooch off my neighbor's connection.  Maybe Kim's doing the same?

Edited by Iron Helix, 02 April 2013 - 07:46 PM.

[Blade 619]

Well... Seoul does hav the best public wifi in the world xD

[Blade 619]

 

I believe what TW and IHA have said sums it up brilliantly and this picture represents it. Kim Jong Un getting the military on board the boat so that his government and familial dynesty might remain while scaring the population into obedience and slavery, keeping that government moving.

[Xelak]

I think what's funniest is how China's reacting. They've been the Norks' only ally for years, and now with NK having less common sense that usual (which is saying a LOT) they've actually started to move away from that. The only scenario now where China would become involved is if the North was attacked, not the other way around. As long as the ROK ignores Lil' Kim, North Korea's going to do something stupid soon, and either implode or have to face down a South Korean/US coalition. The former is more likely.

[DeathMerchant]

Several sources have stated if war breaks out, the entire conflict would be over in about 24 hours. With the U.S. and South Korean Forces taking full control over the North. One of my personal questions is whether China may or may not step in and attempt to "police" part of North Korea. So as to prevent a U.S. friendly country becoming China's neighbor.

 

Some people seem to believe the North's sheer military numbers would overwhelm any opposition. However consider the first Iraq War. That was the first time Western powers had fought a full scale war against a nation using relatively modern Soviet Era technology (1970s-1980s). Saddam had something like the 4th largest army in the world, and was expected to inflict a high level of casualties on the Coalition. However that technology/numbers proved almost worthless against the majority of what the coalition was fielding (A great example would be the Battle of 73 Easting, in which the equivalent of an Iraqi Brigade was destroyed while the Coalition only lost 1 soldier to enemy fire.)

 

North Korea's Military is comprised mainly of 50s-60s Soviet equipment. I won't take into account their air force as I consider they would lose the ability to launch attack craft almost immediately after war is declared (Cruise Missiles would be one method of destroying runways preventing planes from taking off. Air Superiority Fighters/Anti Aircraft Sites would quickly knock out any North Korean planes which made if off the ground). Their attack helicopter fleet is also incredibly small, estimated at only 20 Mi-24 Hinds.

 

Their Navy is small, the only noteworthy attack craft here are Patrol Boats, Missile Boats, Torpedo Boats, and around 35 small Submarines. Neither of these pose much of a serious threat.

 

As mentioned before, their army is severely underpowered. Most tanks are either Type 62s, or Type 54/55s (Which are all outdated). They may have some tanks which possess capabilities similar to the Russian T90, but not much is known about these (nor how many are fielded). North Korean Artillery could cause some damage to South Korean cities, but these would quickly get destroyed. Small arms consist of old Ak-47s, AKMs, RPGs, and not much else.

 

The only way I suspect North Korea could cause massive casualties against an invading force, is if they detonated an immobile nuke. Of course this is unlikely to happen given how quickly North Korean positions would be overrun. The time required to set such a plan into motion would likely take a great effort in preparation.

[ihateaaron]

Very good analysis DeathMerchant.

 

It would be over almost as soon as the go order was given.  The biggest thing will be what the North is willing to do and if they are looking for an attack to cause maximum casualties.

[The Warrior]

There has been talk about Kim Jong Un's instability and what he might do in the instance that the North is being heavily defeated. Speculation is that he is unstable enough that in the case that he's losing control he would detonate one of their nuclear weapons at home to wipe out as much of South Korea and the allied forces that he can on his way out. Obviously he doesn't give two shits about his people otherwise he would cut the crap and give up his nuclear program so that his citizens can eat instead of losing all their rations to U.N. sanctions.

[DeathMerchant]

There has been talk about Kim Jong Un's instability and what he might do in the instance that the North is being heavily defeated. Speculation is that he is unstable enough that in the case that he's losing control he would detonate one of their nuclear weapons at home to wipe out as much of South Korea and the allied forces that he can on his way out. Obviously he doesn't give two shits about his people otherwise he would cut the crap and give up his nuclear program so that his citizens can eat instead of losing all their rations to U.N. sanctions.

A big question is how many active nuclear weapons does North Korea have access to, and they're destructive force. So lets take a look at their past 3 Nuclear Detonations.

 

2006: This was the first Nuclear test North Korea had performed. It largely was considered a failure and the blast force is based on being less than 1 Kiloton.

 

2009: This test was a bit more successful. Sources are a little mixed on the exact number, but it is generally agreed the Kiloton range was under 4.

 

2013: February 12 North Korea detonated another nuke in an underground test. Geographical data suggests its power lies within the 6-9 Kiloton range. A more accurate number may be somewhere between 7-8.

 

So from what we can gather, North Korea just recently detonated a nuke, it can be surmised they only have 1 or 2 on hand at any given time. This low number severely limits the threat they could possible pose. They have the potential of using nuclear weapons around a max of 8 or 9 Kilotons. Which only has the blast radius of about 1 mile in each direction. Not exactly what you would call horrifying numbers, considering North Korea has no means of launching such a weapon. It would have to be transported somewhere, armed, and left behind to detonate. And all of this could only be done on North Korean soil! Would they still do it if they knew they were about to lose? Perhaps they would, but I would like to think they have more sense than that.

 

As a side note, here is a website you can use which plots the destructive force of various grades of nuclear weapons. The website is basically Google Maps with a drop down menu for different nuclear weapons. Destructive yield is measured in Kilotons (Ex. Little Boy used in World War 2 against Japan was 16 Kilotons).

http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

 

Ground Zero 2 is another cool website for simulating nuclear blasts, but this one also lets you measure Fallout and Pressure.

http://www.carloslabs.com/node/20

[ihateaaron]

Awesome resources, and great points. TW has a very valid point as well. Assuming that North Korea's maximum damage radius is 1 mile from the detenation point does limit their capabilities. However, suicide bombing with a nuke could be an option. Perhaps a truck driven at the enemy and detonated that way to get as far into enemy territory as possible. It really depends on what they think they are capable of, what the actual capabilities are, and what the level of desperation to obtain whatever goals are driving this nut bag.

[Dom Zak]

How coincidental that this just showed up on my timeline:

 

 

https://twitter.com/SethMacFarlane/status/319444190696177666

Edited by Dom Zak, 03 April 2013 - 02:32 PM.

[DeathMerchant]

Just read something interesting today. How does everyone feel about this?

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/04/04/north-korea-warns-military-cleared-to-wage-nuclear-attack/

 

North Korea claims to have prepped a long range missile, which states it likely has a small nuclear payload. While I'll call the armed with a nuke part a bluff, the missile likely has considerable range. The article says it could be a KN-08, but that missile is likely a fake. All pictures and observations have pointed to it being a mock up. Most likely the North is using a version of its Taepodong-2 Missile, which claims a range of 4,000 km–6,000 km. But this was only tested once and it failed, so its effective use is extremely low.

 

BM25 Musudan is another North Korean missile but this one was reportedly never even tested. Its operational range is 3,000–4,000 km.

 

North Korea could theoretically achieve several thousand extra kilometers of range if it used a 3 stage rocket. Although their rocket's accuracy is so bad, a launch wouldn't necessarily mean it would land even close to its target (if it doesn't break up mid flight). All this talk just comes down to more propaganda and empty threats. Its so hard to take North Korea seriously these days because their country has what is probably the most erratic and reckless leader.

 

I linked this article because it gave some scenarios about how a conflict might play out, if North Korea chooses to attack.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/04/17573693-what-happens-if-north-korea-gets-out-of-hand-here-are-some-scenarios?lite

[The Warrior]

I read all about that as the news broke late last night in the U.S. I am glad to see that the U.S. is moving ballistic missile defense technology towards Guam to counter any missile launch.

 

At this point I don't think that Kim Jong Un has any choice left but to actually do something, at least for his sake. I sincerely hope that nothing happens of course but if he keeps spewing this type of rhetoric his options more or less boil down to: act or be seen as the fool that he is.

Edited by The Warrior, 04 April 2013 - 01:19 PM.

[Dom Zak]

Here'a an interesting video of how a war could break out and be executed:

 

http://www.cnn.com/video/?iid=article_sidebar#/video/us/2013/04/03/tsr-foreman-korea-war-spider-marks.cnn