well, we can wait on preston, he claimed JOAT, I'd be interested in hearing who he targeted. though he's still high on my suspicion list. 

If ABIGDEAR, could of watched Lyner? since he was a strong townie, or he could of watched me. 

 

@D3mon, pip down, I had a feeling you were scum before lyner revealed his results.

I watched Lyner last night. But I got a 'no result'. Role blocked?

So I'm guessing Preston is scum. Too many JOAT's for all of them to be townie.

Also its unusual for Presti. To be so silent, even for this period of time. Seems like lurking compared to his usual play style.

I investigated preston last night. I can confirm he is a JOAT. So we have multiple JOATs and probably multiple trackers as well.

I watched Lyner last night. But I got a 'no result'. Role blocked?

 

I got that the 1st night as well. Yeah its the role blocker.

I watched Lyner last night. But I got a 'no result'. Role blocked?

 

So we have a roleblocker and a strongman; at least two scum left.

 

Nick the Great is acting like a typical scum and rarely posting.  As I went back and looked at all of his posts, they were mostly non-committal, fluff.  I also noticed he posted right after D3mon with the whole no-lynch thing and of course he reminded us that he had voted that way last game so it was natural to do it again.  I'm guessing him and D3mon got a real giggle doing it.

 

EM is hard to predict for me because he was targeted on night one so unless somebody comes out and says they tried to vigilante his butt or somebody investigated him and got a result, I don't know what to think.  If he is town, that would mean somebody on my upper list is scum.

 

I am not a pro at this, but I think I have this pegged right:

 

Vote: Nick The Great

So I'm guessing Preston is scum. Too many JOAT's for all of them to be townie.

 

We already killed a JOAT scum. Will there be 2 JOAT scums? Also I am not sure if JOATs have the role block ability or not. But if not, that will mean we have a role blocker scum and a killer scum. We killed 1 scum last night. So unless the scum JOAT also has the ability to kill, it is unlikely Preston is scum.

Damn, I forgot to post the rest of my stuff with my reply.  This was supposed to be above me talking about those two:

 

So these were my thoughts going into night 2, but I never got to post them before D3mon was lynched:

 

Night 1 known actions:

ABigDeer -watched Preston

Rafay - tracked Preston

Preston - claimed JOAT, and used Role Cop on Imran

Kaziocore - used Fletcher (Gunsmith) on Rafay

Lyner - investigated D3mon and found Goblin

TBRaiders - I know I am town

*Felt confident everyone above is town

 

*Most likely town

Robert2424 (all over D3mon early and often)

Imran Ehsan (Preston says Role Cop and also was all over D3mon)

 

Hmm

Electric Mango

Nick The Great

That is why I talked about those two, fwiw.

Vote Count:

• Nick The Great, Girion (1): TBRaiders
• Rafay, Radagast the Brown (0):
• Electric Mango, Dain II Ironfoot (0):
• Preston, Bain (0):
• ABigDeer, Bard the Bowman (0):
• Robert2424, Beorn (0):
• Imran Ehsan, Thorin Oakenshield (0)
• Kaziocore, Legolas Greenleaf (0)
• TBRaiders, Gwaihir the Windlord (0)

• No-Lynch (0):
• Not Voting (8): Nick The Great, ABigDeer, Electric Mango, Preston, Robert2424, Imran Ehsan, Kaziocore, Rafay

Deadline is 1200 EST, Wednesday, February 4.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

Wow, very disappointed in the lack of discussion today.  Rafay, Preston, Kaz - would love to know if any of you found out anything useful for us.

Rafay successfully tracked me last night if I am not mistaken. I want to know Prestond actions though.

brb

Well, its interesting how Preston is suddenly inactive. I really have to wonder about him. Lets apply pressure on the actives though. 

 

Vote NicktheGreat

 

Nick might be scum, but I don't have much on him. I see him mainly inactive and most the time unhelpful in finding scum. 

 

I will say this, I believe Kazio for now to be town. It doesn't fit him being anti right now unless I've missed something. 

 

We know TBR and EM were shot but lived N1. We have no information on who targeted either of them. Rafay might of tracked Imran, which would clear them for now if rafay truly tracked Imran and imran can verify the results. 

 

ABD might of been roleblocked like Imran was N1. since roleblocker hasn't come out yet, the roleblocker is most likely scum with his choices. Which would point towards ABD being town. 

 

Now, my thoughts on the scum roles. It would make sense if d3mon had a 1 shot killing role. Especially with so many townies having a arrow proof vests. there has to be a way to balance it a bit. Same with them having a strongman ability. Meaning both shots could be from scum, meaning scum tried to gain an advantage day 2 by getting rid of 2 random townies meaning less day phases to win. It make sense at the time without the knowledge of so many arrow proofs. Then using there strongman night 2 after learning both their shots hit but no kills makes sense also. Vigs don't normally target anybody N1, and looking at it, it be likely a vig targeted EM, as I don't think a vig would target TBR, a new player, N1. So, if somebody were to target em, our list of people who'd think he might of been scum N1, would of been me, (Though I didn't do it), and I don't think there was anybody else really? If somebody else who you think could of targeted EM as a vig as valid reasoning why they would target them I would like to hear. 

 

 

also, I did receive a visitor last night. I'm going to throw that out there now. 

also, I see what you did there Lyner. 

Rafay might of tracked Imran, which would clear them for now if rafay truly tracked Imran and imran can verify the results.

 

I already confirmed. Rafay claimed I visited Preston, which I did. Does this clear Rafay as town? No. Reasons below:

 

1. He refused to vote for scum d3mon even after Lyner identified d3mon as scum.

 

2. So far we have seen 1 townie tracker, 1 townie JOAT and 1 scum JOAT. I investigated Preston and he is a JOAT. I dont know his alignment. As we already know there was a town JOAT and a scum JOAT, it seems like there can be multiple JOATs for either town or scum. We dont know yet if there are multiple townie trackers, Rafays refusal to clarify his role is not helping town, he is just telling his actions but not his role. This is very scummy imo.

I was meaning the ones who possible with killing roles. I'm doing process of elimination right now. 

Bleh, sorry for silence all; seems I missed the start of the day by not being on the forums yesterday. My war in CN just finished, and so per my GF's insistence I was able to go to bed earlier last night for a change instead of staying up until 2 am; not checking in here was a consequence of that. Anyway, let's see what's been said...

 

First reaction is relief that d3mon was scum and Lyner's cop action was real; I'd put the hammer on that somewhat by accident, and I'd have been in a VERY bad position if d3mon had turned out to be town. His being a JOAT made sense to balance out my role; one scum JOAT, one town JOAT.

 

Second reaction is wtf that Lyner is another town JOAT? And d3mon was one too. Very much role madness indeed, and as someone put it there seem to be entirely too many JOATs in this game. Here I was thinking my role was special somehow... but perhaps we're just meant to get in each others' way and throw false positives all over the place with the tracker and watcher roles - that combined with the now-demonstrated scum strongman could be how they're meant to have a chance. I'll be curious to hear Kevin's thoughts on how this game was balanced when it's all over.

 

For my night action: when d3mon proved scum, I felt that vetted Lyner as town; as such instead of investigating I used my JOAT's doctor to protect him. On Day 2 my theory had been that the scum didn't have a strongman because Kevin had implied they'd only get it if we developed a breaking strategy, but instead were shooting two arrows per night. Lyner was an obvious scum target and hence obvious person to defend... unfortunately it seems Imran was right about them having a Strongman they could not (or did not) use on Night 1.

So we have a roleblocker and a strongman; at least two scum left.

 

Nick the Great is acting like a typical scum and rarely posting.  As I went back and looked at all of his posts, they were mostly non-committal, fluff.  I also noticed he posted right after D3mon with the whole no-lynch thing and of course he reminded us that he had voted that way last game so it was natural to do it again.  I'm guessing him and D3mon got a real giggle doing it.

 

EM is hard to predict for me because he was targeted on night one so unless somebody comes out and says they tried to vigilante his butt or somebody investigated him and got a result, I don't know what to think.  If he is town, that would mean somebody on my upper list is scum.

 

I am not a pro at this, but I think I have this pegged right:

 

Vote: Nick The Great

TBRaiders makes an important point here; scum have demonstrated roleblocking on two nights (Imran night 1, ABD night 2) and now a strongman role. Since JOAT roles are 1-shot, that implies they have a dedicated roleblocker - with this many town roles that makes sense. We've now seen the scum's JOAT - so if noone else speaks up as a vigilante (or yet *another* JOAT?) to claim the arrow shot at EM, d3mon could have been the one that fired it to supplement the scum's normal arrow on the first night. If their strongman is the one who fired the 'normal' arrow on Night 1 this would make sense.

 

Per my post last game, the only ones left who haven't claimed or referenced their ability are EM, Nick, Robert, and TBRaiders - only one of them could be the vigilante from Night 1. EM could not have shot at himself, so that removes him from the list.

 

An alternate interpretation that should be kept in mind, however: since the scum have the same 1-shot arrowproof we do, they could have chosen to shoot one of their own (non-fatally) to given them credibility on future days. So even if no vigilante claims the shot on EM, it doesn't inherently clear him - I dont know how LIKELY this strategy is, however.

I investigated preston last night. I can confirm he is a JOAT. So we have multiple JOATs and probably multiple trackers as well.

I appreciate this confirmation of my roleclaim; unfortunately it means you didnt discover one of the unclaimed roles last night, such that if they fake-claimed today you could call them out on it. But yes - since it seems we can't rule out multiple roles of the same type on one side or the other, that's going to make our job more difficult.

So I'm guessing Preston is scum. Too many JOAT's for all of them to be townie.

There are a lot of JOATs this game, but unless there is a fourth scum it looks like they have a JOAT (d3mon), a dedicated roleblocker, and a strongman. The excessive use of roles has caused more confusion than information this game; a lot about "someone did something", but the only scum identification was through Lyner's action.

 

Well, its interesting how Preston is suddenly inactive. I really have to wonder about him. Lets apply pressure on the actives though. 

 

Vote NicktheGreat

 

Nick might be scum, but I don't have much on him. I see him mainly inactive and most the time unhelpful in finding scum. 

 

I will say this, I believe Kazio for now to be town. It doesn't fit him being anti right now unless I've missed something. 

 

We know TBR and EM were shot but lived N1. We have no information on who targeted either of them. Rafay might of tracked Imran, which would clear them for now if rafay truly tracked Imran and imran can verify the results. 

 

ABD might of been roleblocked like Imran was N1. since roleblocker hasn't come out yet, the roleblocker is most likely scum with his choices. Which would point towards ABD being town. 

 

Now, my thoughts on the scum roles. It would make sense if d3mon had a 1 shot killing role. Especially with so many townies having a arrow proof vests. there has to be a way to balance it a bit. Same with them having a strongman ability. Meaning both shots could be from scum, meaning scum tried to gain an advantage day 2 by getting rid of 2 random townies meaning less day phases to win. It make sense at the time without the knowledge of so many arrow proofs. Then using there strongman night 2 after learning both their shots hit but no kills makes sense also. Vigs don't normally target anybody N1, and looking at it, it be likely a vig targeted EM, as I don't think a vig would target TBR, a new player, N1. So, if somebody were to target em, our list of people who'd think he might of been scum N1, would of been me, (Though I didn't do it), and I don't think there was anybody else really? If somebody else who you think could of targeted EM as a vig as valid reasoning why they would target them I would like to hear. 

 

 

also, I did receive a visitor last night. I'm going to throw that out there now.

Most of your analysis about scum roles echoes what I've just written while reading the day's posts thus far, so we seem to be on the same page at least. I agree that ABD having been roleblocked implies he's town; even though anyone can claim 'roleblocked' to mask their action, it makes entirely too much sense for ABD as a claimed watcher to have been blocked at the same time the scum killed Lyner.

 

I'm curious why you think Kazio is town; he's not posted at all on Day 3 yet, and has been nearly as inactive as Nick:. Kaz last posted on the 23rd and Nick last posted on the 18th. That kind of inactivity is terrible in a crazy game like this one; they both need to get back in here and contribute, and I'd like to hear who kaz targeted last night.

 

I got an initial positive feel from Kaz on Day 1 when he supported my analysis on the rapid no-lynch wagon (which yes, I have since accepted was a wild goose chase on my part...), but he went quiet partway through Day 1 and never really returned on a consistent basis. And Nick's sparse posts have been fairly noncommittal, which could be a scum flag - given that he seemed new I was giving him some slack on Day 1, but he didn't do himself any favors halfway through Day 2 when he returned and asked for a summary to catch up then never posted again.

 

Now this is interesting: In searching for Nick's content to find his most recent post, I saw the signup thread for this game has been changed by Kevin to read "Immediate Mafia Replacement Needed!" Maybe reading a bit much into things, but it looks like Kaz or Nick may have asked to be replaced. That could shake this up a bit... it's also terribly disruptive, but it could be better than keeping one of them inactive.

 

Until we see how the 'replacement' angle shakes out I'm going to hold off on voting; I'm not a fan of taking the easy route and voting for inactives in either case, and frankly on Day 3 we need to be scum-hunting more than inactive-culling.

 

I am very curious about Robert's comment that he 'received a visitor' last night - a half-claim of some sort, with no clear motivation behind it. I don't know what THAT could mean, nor why Robert felt it was appropriate. I remain VERY curious about his role however, because apparently whatever his role is (not its use, since he didn't target me on Night 1) made him suspect me just by having claimed my role.

 

I'll check in tonight to look for new posts.

 

-Preston

I am even more disappointed.  I read the new posts since I last posted and started typing up a lengthy reply. I then checked back a couple pages and when I came back to post I saw Preston reading this thread so decided to finish some more work before refreshing to see what Preston posted for us, even if it was a "Hey checked the thread.  Busy as crap, but have a lot to post and will post it later" type of reply.

 

So anyway, below is some of the post I was working on.  I realize I don't want to say more until Preston and Kax tell us what they did last night, but I do want to toss this out there:

 

No matter how you break it down after all the claims on D2, of the following people one used role block and two used arrows to try and kill on N1:

D3mon
TBRaiders
Imran Ehsan
Robert2424
Electric Mango
Nick The Great

So three of these 6 people.  Lets say D3mon had a 1-shot kill role and he was one of the ones shooting arrows on N1.  That still leaves two of the five.  For me, it becomes easier because I know I didn't shoot any arrows so I am down to suspecting the bottom four names on the list as a roleblocker and a scum with killing ability.

 

Imran, why would you use Role Cop on Preston?  He told us what he was and outed your role.  Your investigation would only confirm he was a JOAT or role cop himself and not his alignment.  Unless you think he threw the dice on D2 and made an excellent guess about your role, I am not sure I understand fully why you checked him and not someone else.

Preston, I am reading your post now.  I should have refreshed before posting.  I should have known you were writing a book and gave you more time...lol

I appreciate this confirmation of my roleclaim; unfortunately it means you didnt discover one of the unclaimed roles last night, such that if they fake-claimed today you could call them out on it. But yes - since it seems we can't rule out multiple roles of the same type on one side or the other, that's going to make our job more difficult.

 

I investigated you to make sure you were not fake claiming.You using your role cop ability on me and finding me as a role cop and getting caught at it by Rafay are too many coincidences to overlook. I wanted to make sure you were not a scum Role Cop. You would know it will be very unlikely that there will be 2 townie role cops so you claimed a JOAT to explain your role cop ability. In any case your claim turned out to correct.

 

However, your action last night is very very suspicious. Why did you not use your sane cop ability? Why would you use the doc role when you know there is a very strong possibility that scum will use the strong man ability? There positively is a Vig in this game. Otherwise there will be no need for scum to have arrow-proof abilities as well.

Imran, why would you use Role Cop on Preston?  He told us what he was and outed your role.  Your investigation would only confirm he was a JOAT or role cop himself and not his alignment.  Unless you think he threw the dice on D2 and made an excellent guess about your role, I am not sure I understand fully why you checked him and not someone else.

 

Heh..I just explained why while you were writing your post.

So what if it had come back as a role cop?  It doesn't tell us his alignment and we 100% knew he either was a real lucky guesser or had the ability to investigate and chose you to investigate.

I assume it's Nick that is getting replaced? If so if people think Nick is scum then he gets replaced see how the person who replaces him goes, it's difficult to take over from a scum role as an introduced player (been there, done that) and if they were to end up doing nothing like Nick, they have probably already given up and are trying to stay below the radar which is a good sign of scum. 

 

Today we are trying to fit the pieces together and be confident in the person that we lynch has a high probability of being scum. I haven't had much to do with this seeing as the only games where I've lived long enough have been scum games but I personally think that someone who has already role claimed is not as innocent as people want them to think, as well as those who haven't claimed at all there is definitely at least one or two bad eggs in there. I'm looking at EM as possibly one of them, I already had suspicions of him at the beginning based on his first actions however his failure to capitalise with my accusers on day 1 (Lyner, TBR) made it seem to me that he didn't want to be seen as a key accuser and when I would had flipped town someone like TBR would have had to cop the flak for it leaving EM fine. Main flaw with my suspicion is that EM was hit on night 1 (who knows what it was, vig/scum) so it sort of makes it less valid. Lack of vig claim makes me think it was probably scum after all for now. As for the second it would probably be Nick for his lack of contributions and general fluff posts, if it is him to be replaced I will be watching his replacement.

 

As for one of those that has already role claimed for someone I suspect, I think Rafay because we already had a townie tracker not only that we have a watcher as well so another investigative ability might not have been ideal to the town.

 

I don't have much solid in terms of eliminating people and having a list and such, I'm stating what I have thought of things so far. So if TBR or Imran have come up with something that does sound solid I would join because it seems to me they are both townies.