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[KH-07] Medical Mafia - Mafia Win

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  • Replies 189
  • Views 18.2k
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  • Author

Patient: Doctor, what should I do if my temperature goes up five more points?

Doctor: Sell!


Vote Count:


Big Ego (2): Master Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Master Samus (0):
Emudevelopment (0)
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (4): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190, Robert2424

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

The mod is outnumbering our post ;_;

 

 

Alright 3 days before deadline, let's get serious. Today's question:

 

 

Do we lynch or no lynch?

I think we have a better chance at getting a scum with a lynch vote then a NA,

Yes, that is very true, it whittles down the chances of getting a doc. Even IF we lynch a doctor. For me, that's a risk I'm willing to take. I am quite sure that I am using my night action.

 

The mod is outnumbering our post ;_;

 

 

I always post fluff on Day 1

 

http://s3-media1.fl.yelpcdn.com/bphoto/UfkQRi_NE-ZEDIqcsG9c4A/ms.jpg

Oh and l0bster.

doing some math here, we have 9 players. running worse case scenario first.

 

We lynch somebody today, its town. The town outnumbers the mafia 6-2. Scum will most likely get a kill tomorrow. 5-2. If CPR and or Quack doctor kills two people, both are town. 3-2. Sudden We are in a lynch or lose scenario. 

 

If worse case happens but we don't lynch, we are at 4-2, with better odds that quack or CPR will try to use there powers again next night to kill scum. 

 

Best case if we do happen to get really lucky and lynch scum on day one. 7-1 going into the night. CPR or Quack doctor, do hit mafia and last scum isn't protected by good doc, we win. (Very unlikely)

 

Possible scenrio. We lynch a town, and we head into the night with 6-2. CPR or Quack kills one of the mafia, but anouther kills a town. Scum kills a town. We sit at 4-1. 

 

No lynch with scenario just above, we'd be at 5-1. 

 

It can go any way, but personally, this game go south very fast and turn very short. I'm going to with No-lynch at this time. However. We have till friday to get a lynch or decide. I'm in no Hurry. I say we let this day phase go to Friday and try to keep up conversation. 

 

Vote Emud

 

Your way too quiet, get in this conversation. 

Ok.. rechecking some of the math..

No NA + Lynching gives us 22%, 29%, 40% chances.

NA + No Lynching gives us.. (the math on this gets complex, due to the roleblocker, nature of the CPR doc, etc, so I'm gonna guesstimate) a 19%ish chance, but we get 2 of them.

So that's 19%, 19%.. then the next day, *assuming Mafia doesn't get lucky and kill Quack or CPR), they'll probably have something like 30%ish chance each.

So 19%/19%, 30%/30% (and after that, we're probably dead)

...

The differences aren't that dramatic. I think, maybe, using NA is slightly better? Because there is so much to factor in, it is hard to say. I'm not that great at math, and even if I was, it could still take a while to try to factor & compare all the variables & what not.

If we did share who we are targeting, that really could help our chances tomorrow. My only concern is that it also could help Mafia identify the Quack/CPR and target them. Though N2 is where it's ALL gonna go down. There probably won't be a N3 if we do it wrong/don't get lucky..

Only person I feel is probably town right now is Hippo. Most everyone else I'm neutral on. Suspicious of Rafay & Robert.

  • Author

Prisoner: Look here, doctor! You've already removed my spleen, tonsils, adenoids, and one of my kidneys. I only came to see if you could get me out of this place!

Doctor: I am, bit by bit.

Vote Count:


Big Ego (2): Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Emudevelopment (1): Robert2424
Samus (0):
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (3): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.

  • Author

Patient: How much to have this tooth pulled?

Dentist: $100.00.

Patient: $100.00 for just a few minutes work?

Dentist: Well, I can extract it very slowly if you like.

Vote Count:


Big Ego (2): Master Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Emudevelopment (1): Robert2424
Master Samus (0):
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (3): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

  • Author

Patient: Doctor, I think I swallowed a pillow.

Doctor: How do you feel?

Patient: A little down in the mouth.

Vote Count:


Big Ego (2): Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Emudevelopment (1): Robert2424
Samus (0):
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (3): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

Let's do a tally real quick. We have four options and we must vote on them: 

 

              Option                                    # of Votes

A) No-Lynch and no abilities        |   1

B. No-Lynch and use abilities      |

C) Lynch and no abilities              |

D) Lynch and use abilities            |

 

 

Regardless of which vote we choose, we must all go in on it, because that's our strength over the mafia. We outnumber them.  

My vote is option A.

 

Edit: Formatting.

Let's do a tally real quick. We have four options and we must vote on them: 

 

              Option                                    # of Votes

A) No-Lynch and no abilities        |   1

B. No-Lynch and use abilities      |

C) Lynch and no abilities              |

D) Lynch and use abilities            |

 

 

Regardless of which vote we choose, we must all go in on it, because that's our strength over the mafia. We outnumber them.  

My vote is option A.

 

Edit: Formatting.

Exactly how do you expect us to hit scum with no action taken towards them? 

If we don't use our abilities, we won't figure out which kind of doc we are. If we figure out which doc we are, we can use it to our advantage.

Also thanks Samus

I am for no-lynch because we have a 2/9 chance of hitting scum, so we will have a higher chance of winning if we don't lynch

I say we all no-lynch and go straight into night actions. If we take to long, the scum might have formulated a plan.

Honestly, if people aren't going to post, I'd rather Cause discussion. How can one become unconfused if they don't even try to post. 

 

Emud still hasn't posted, so my vote stays. Kevin might want to poke him. 

  • Author

A dentist, after completing work on a patient, came to him begging.

Dentist: Could you help me? Could you give out a few of your loudest, most painful screams?

Patient: Why? Doctor, it wasn't all that bad this time.

Dentist: There are so many people in the waiting room right now, and I don't want to miss the four o'clock ball game.


Vote Count:


Big Ego (2): Master Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Emudevelopment (1): Robert2424
Master Samus (0):
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (3): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

  • Author

Nurse: Doctor, there is an invisible man in your waiting room.

Doctor: Tell him I can't see him now. Next.


Vote Count:


Big Ego (2): Master Master Samus, Rafay
Robert2424 (1): Lyner
Rafay (1): Big Ego
Emudevelopment (1): Robert2424
Master Master Samus (0):
iSocialism (0)
Lord Hippo (0)
Lyner (0)
Mariomario190 (0)

No Lynch (1): Lord Hippo

 
Not voting (3): Emudevelopment, iSocialism, Mariomario190

Deadline is 5pm EDT, Friday, May 8
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch, or 3 at deadline.
 

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