Also, good call Preston. Glad I listened to you rather than stick with my original plan...also should have stuck with my gut on King H.

Important mod note:

 

Now that we are below 7 players I will be adjusting the number of real life days that one game day lasts. Game days will now last as many real life days as there are players alive. This means that day 7 will last five days and deadline will be Tuesday the 27th.

D34THbringer came up as normal hogwarts student.

I am now certain there is a godfather, since i would be dead by now.

D34THbringer came up as normal hogwarts student.

I am now certain there is a godfather, since i would be dead by now.

What's certain is one of us alive is lying. I rule out Preston as scum as he wouldn't have thrown his fellow Scum under the bus on purpose. However, he *could* be a SK, which then allows him to go after both scum AND town. However, wouldn't that show in a cop investigation?

 

Has Lego's RC been truly investigated? I don't remember seeing it. I know I haven't been investigated (which surprises me.)

 

I'm saddened to see SM go.

 

I don't get how/why Maz isn't dead. Don't get it at all.

 

Wait...D34th is a Normal Hogwarts Student, but his RC was Nearly Headless Nick, who is a ghost? Something doesn't match up here.

Aha I know what mine said and I'm town and he says I'm town but it days student. I it knows I'm town wouldn't I know if I was student or ghost

And another thing about the potential presence of an SK - if there were, there'd be more than 1 death per night.

 

I don't know who I distrust more - D34th and his RC, or Maz and his - because if he were truly a cop, the scum would have offed him all ready. There's no way an outed cop lives 2 nights.

 

I'd like to get Preston's thoughts first, both on what Maz "found" regarding d34th and my thoughts about Maz.

I thought so! Well done.

 

I'm suspicious of D34TH and Mazureek. Problem is I'll be away for the day to visit family.

I thought so! Well done.

 

I'm suspicious of D34TH and Mazureek. Problem is I'll be away for the day to visit family.

I'm done with you right now... You need to speak. You blamed it on bad internet then got better internet and said you'd post your thought, nothing was posted. Now you try to put a FoS on me and maz like everyone else and say you AGAIN won't be posting. This is all just way too convenient for you...

 

FoS Lego

Sorry for not posting until now - busy Friday and Saturday; weekends can be full, who knew? I'd say this long post is to make up for that, but really it's all stuff that needs to be said. Sorry in advance for the length!

 

I'm glad we chose correctly with KH - the way he said "Good luck guys" made me think we'd lynched a townie until TW's narrative updated!

 

What is more confusing is how the night went - only one kill, and Mazu is still alive.

 

Finster's post raises a lot of the questions that need to be addressed, so I'll go through that:

What's certain is one of us alive is lying. I rule out Preston as scum as he wouldn't have thrown his fellow Scum under the bus on purpose. However, he *could* be a SK, which then allows him to go after both scum AND town. However, wouldn't that show in a cop investigation?

The mafiascum page on serial killers is not solid on this point - it's basically up to the mod whether a SK would be immune to investigations or not. I can't claim that Mazu's (double) investigation of me is 100% proof that I'm not a SK, and I could obviously still be a Godfather - but if I were scum yesterday would have ended quite differently.

Has Lego's RC been truly investigated? I don't remember seeing it. I know I haven't been investigated (which surprises me.)

No actual investigation has taken place, correct. The only 'proof' for him is TW's response to his initial roleclaim, and that some scum have voted for him. Neither are conclusive, especially with this few people left. I also believe it was also Samus (who we now know was scum) who came up with the idea that Lego was town because of his response to TW - so that throws his proven status into another light.

Wait...D34th is a Normal Hogwarts Student, but his RC was Nearly Headless Nick, who is a ghost? Something doesn't match up here.

In the LAST game, TW gave the normal cop results that varied depending on if the person being investigated was a student or staff flavor character. D34TH claims to be a third option, a 'normal hogwarts ghost' - which does not match the Student result Mazu claims, since "Nearly Headless Nick" is not a student; if anything he'd have been staff. So unless TW made a mistake or changed his style, this may suggest D34TH is not who he claims to be.

 

So now we have the BIG question about what happened last night - I'm not going to quote the several different ways this was asked.

 

First a few facts:

* On Night 4: Two kills occurred. This was either done by a scum role with an extra kill (JoAT, Vig), or a SK. We have seen neither yet, so we cannot rule either out.

* On Night 5: Only one kill attempt - Ali was taken out instead of Mazu, the claimed cop. Given that we now know KH's nurse claim was false, that means Mazu was NOT protected Night 5.

* On Night 6: Again only one kill attempt, and again not on the claimed cop.

* Mazu's cop claim has had no counter-claims, and there's barely anyone left in the game at this point - if another cop was going to come out, it would have happened by now. I'd be surprised if we didn't have a normal cop this game; so the lack of a counter-claim makes me believe Mazu, even if his results have not produced much of use and he did doubly investigate me. The odds of a fake cop claim failing are VERY high; it's not normally a safe route for scum to take. So for the moment I still believe Mazu's claim.

 

Possible scenarios going forward:

1. There is one scum left, and they are either a godfather with a killing role or a non-godfather killing role (vigilante, JoAT)

> This would mean the two kills on Night 4 were the only chance they'd get for two kills. Taking out Kevin at that point would make sense so he could not track the non-ninja scum doing the kill. However I don't believe a non-godfather killing role is likely because they REALLY would have gone after the cop, and the idea of TW making a hybrid godfather-JoAT or godfather-vigilante is crazy - unless he took Lyner's rationales last game as a dare to do just that.

 

2. Two scum remain, one of whom had the killing role used for Night 4.

> This is still possible - with five people left they would not have instantly won already - however that would be six scum total and I don't think that is realistic.

 

3. There is a SK left, and all the scum are gone - last night's kill was the SK alone.

> This would however mean there's no Godfather. The single kill on Night 5 could either be the SK holding back, or both SK and scum choosing Ali as the target.

 

4. There is both one scum left and one SK left.

> This would mean either the SK held off for two nights or that for some of Night 5 or 6 they targeted the same person. If a scum remains, I would bet they are the godfather.

 

I personally believe option 4 is on play, for the following reason:

* Mazu's survival can be explained by scum considering the SK a higher threat to them than the claimed cop - even if the cop could have found KH, he was next on Ali's list anyway. The Godfather that remains would not fear the cop, and instead hope that it would help them find the SK. If KH had been the ONLY scum left, I'd have expected him to target the cop instead.

* Given that D34TH was being investigated last night (unless Mazu didn't go with the public plan), SM's being killed instead of Mazu (claimed cop) or D34TH (under suspicion) means that Mazu's result is still of interest - either to scum looking for the SK, or to SK looking for scum, possibly both.

 

So among those who remain, we're looking for a SK and a scum godfather.

 

Mazuurek

* Claimed cop with no counterclaim. I believe his claim, and am leaving him out of consideration for now.

 

D34THBR1NG3R

* Claimed "Normal Hogwarts Ghost". Mazu's result returned "Normal Hogwarts Student" - unless TW messed up, that might be one of the two.

* Voted for Finster yesterday

* Could be scum godfather if his 'real flavor name' is a student and that doesn't match the "normal hogwarts ghost" of his safe claim name.

* Could be SK, if we assume an investigation-immune SK.

 

Finster Baby

* Claimed Vanilla Townie. Second vote for KH yesterday, prior to SM's vote.

* Voted early yesterday for KH along with Lego, then unvoted on KH's roleclaim.

* Could still be scum because he would have needed someone else to join his vote on D34TH to make that happen and have the wagon not end on himself.

* Could be serial killer - bandwagoning/safe behavior would be a good cover

 

legoboyvdlp

* Claimed Vanilla Townie on Day 1, prompting TW's note about mass role claims. Samus (now known as scum) later spun this into Lego's reaction "proving" his towniness, which has been accepted by everyone until now.

* Voted early yesterday for KH, then later unvoted and was largely quiet for the rest of the day - did not take a position when we needed a tiebreaker on three wagons.

* Normally bandwagons and follows the lead of existing townies, which is good cover behavior for scum or SK.

* Has been offering excuses for being away lately, which is another potential cover for lurking and playing it safe.

* Could be scum - his cover came from a scum's argument, and his early vote on KH could have been cover prior to KH's roleclaim. Known scum have voted for him however.

* Could be SK - same 'safe' behavior

 

Preston

* Claimed Vanilla Townie after KevinH tracked and outed me. Also investigated by Mazu - apparently twice.

* Pushed early game wagons on Lyner and KevinH based on their behavior, during which known scum CoD and iSocialism supported me, letting me take the lead - but did not quickly jump on the same wagon KevinH wagon with each other until there were more votes. Ali's analysis agreed that they were trying to get me onto their side; three scum openly cooperating THAT blatantly would be intensely stupid.

* During mass indecision yesterday, voted for KH and provided reasoning that Rhizo had a 1-shot doctor in his JoAT already. While this was not the vote that confirmed the wagon, it allowed someone else to do so; both Finster and SM did.

* Me. I'll obviously say I am not scum or the SK (which is one reason I didn't mind all the investigations thrown my way) but for completeness:

* Unlikely to be scum due to having made the KH wagon possible yesterday. If I were scum, I could have sided with Finster or D34TH's wagons and been blameless due to the indecision.

* Could be SK if we assume an investigation-immune SK. I have also taken far riskier positions that could have gotten me lynched or targeted by scum early in the game; not good behavior for a SK who wants to survive until the end. Plus I didn't support the inactivity lynch on Rafay.

 

So with all of the above said, I am looking between D34TH, Lego, and Finster. I don't yet know which stands out the most.

 

Also, for everyone: keep in mind that we only need THREE votes to lynch someone, or two at deadline. Be careful about throwing your votes unless you REALLY mean them. Stay as active as you are able - silence today is NOT going to be favorable to you.

 

-Preston

It sucks because the only reason I'd be looking at Maz right now is because he said I was a normal hogwarts student when I am a normal hogwarts ghost. And I know that TW can't just come out and clarify because that would be illegally confirming my role pretty much. Other than that I have nothing against maz.

 

I'm really starting to get leery about lego's lurking. If I wanted I could use any excuse ever to not post, but there is always time for at least something besides hopping on the wagon of someone else and dropping a few FoS's here and there.

 

Finster I just got a scummy feel because he has not stopped accusing me and is grasping at the same evidence he's had for over a RL week... If nothing else has popped up don't you think it's time you start to actually believe me?

 

preston is way too helpful to be scum, although he could still be SK or scum, you never know.

And I know that TW can't just come out and clarify because that would be illegally confirming my role pretty much

Last game TW did have to comment when he made a mistake in reporting night results to people. If he really did make a mistake in what he told Mazu, there is precedent for him to speak up.

 

-Preston

Alright, I read wrong. It DOES say Normal Hogwarts GHOST. Sorry!

Alright, I read wrong. It DOES say Normal Hogwarts GHOST. Sorry!

The dangers of skimming your results - PLEASE be careful about this, the whole point of your investigating D34TH was to confirm the Ghost or not!

 

Seriously, making mistakes with your power role can make you look scummy; people correctly view any mistakes or inconsistencies as potential scum fake-claim slip-ups.

 

So this update from Mazu doesn't serve to 100% confirm if D34TH is or isn't a Godfather or SK, but at minimum it means the 'ghost' thing he said before is accurate - which can be a point in his favor.

 

I'm not sure where this puts my suspicions right now. I want to hear more from Lego at minimum.

 

-Preston

Alright, I read wrong. It DOES say Normal Hogwarts GHOST. Sorry!

Based on this I now buy D34th's claim. See? I can be convinced.

 

Mazu: accuracy counts!

 

At this point, I am thinking either Lego or Preston are our choices. Lego has been rather sparse in his activity over the past few days and really hasn't provided a lot of info or been scum hunting. (Yes I know he had some RL issues)

 

FOS: Lego.

 

Preston has been WAY too helpful to be scum. Or he plays that good of a game. LOL

 

 

I thought so! Well done.

 

I'm suspicious of D34TH and Mazureek. Problem is I'll be away for the day to visit family.

I'm done with you right now... You need to speak. You blamed it on bad internet then got better internet and said you'd post your thought, nothing was posted. Now you try to put a FoS on me and maz like everyone else and say you AGAIN won't be posting. This is all just way too convenient for you...

 

FoS Lego

Very convenient that you didn't check if I had logged on the forums, right?

 

 

 

@TheWarrior, requesting replacement after tonight. Unless game is over.

Honestly, do what you want to me. Lynch me. Eat me alive. Only problem with option a is I'm town according to thewarrior's initial mafia private message. I won't likely be around much of this week. Rushing around Tescos and things here. I really hate shoe shops.

 

 

@TW can I be replaced IMMEDIATELY?

I'm not sure what to say to what Lego posted, and given the silence since then - either busy weekends or no one else knows either.

 

He claims his townieness in a very fatalistic way, without really trying to defend himself at all, and extends the period he is likely to be unresponsive. I understand RL being an issue, but this is a strange way to go about it.

 

Asking first to be replaced "after tonight unless it's game over", and then immediately... honestly at this point if he IS replaced, we'd have zero read on the new person anyway.

 

It's hard to tell between the three main suspects who remain.

 

D34TH is looking marginally more town due to confirmation of his "Ghost"; unless we find out after the game that TW came up with that label to match a safe claim name after the fact.

 

Lego seems to not want to give us much of anything to respond to. He has bandwagoned the whole game and rode the idea of his 'proven' townieness until now - but since it was Samus (scum) who established that, I dont know. Competing theories: Samus defended Lego and accused people voting for him (same with Rafay) because if they flip town, he can claim to have been right; or alternately, Samus defended Lego and his theory, and because Lego never died his theory was untested. Remember that Rhizo went after Canik for his Lego vote, too.

 

Finster seems neutral... played it safe bandwagoning for much of the game, but is more talkative today and participating. Having voted for KH yesterday could be a method to try and remain safe today - if Finster and KH were both scum then we had votes on both yesterday, and his only option was to support lynching the other.

 

Choosing between Lego and Finster is tricky. Frankly it's possible BOTH were playing it safe - one the scum, the other the SK - but we don't know.

 

Mazu, do you have any input on this as the cop?

 

-Preston

Yeah RL sucks.

 

Me playing it safe? Hardly. I went hard after d34th until Mazu confirmed him properly. Now, given Lego's desire to quit the game, I get a sense that he knows things are done and so his he.

 

I *still* am having a hard time with why the scum have let Mazu live. Unless the last scum knows he can't be found out at this rate.

 

I'm almost of the opinion that if Lego wants out, then we should let him out. But, if he's town, we're pretty screwed if we do that.

Me playing it safe? Hardly. I went hard after d34th until Mazu confirmed him properly. Now, given Lego's desire to quit the game, I get a sense that he knows things are done and so his he.

I'm referring to your early-mid game behavior. Everyone's behavior changes near the end of the game, when there's less of a crowd to blend into and you need to make the case for other people being the day's lynch instead of you.

I *still* am having a hard time with why the scum have let Mazu live. Unless the last scum knows he can't be found out at this rate.

I put my theory on this earlier in that really long post, but TLDR:

* If there's a scum left at all, betting it's a Godfather that doesn't fear the cop. We were talking about Godfather and Ninja both being in play earlier, and so far we have only seen the Ninja.

* Mazu as claimed cop cannot be a SK, and scum wants to find the SK.

* Because neither Mazu or D34TH were killed last night, both scum and SK either wanted to see Mazu's result to try and find the other, or otherwise weren't afraid of the result coming out.

 

Despite his slip-ups and sparse results, Mazu's cop claim has not been counter-claimed and he is the fifth town PR. It would be VERY risky for anyone to fake-claim as the cop, either SK or Scum, unless they KNEW no cop was in play - and we took out the scum's Role Cop early enough to make that unlikely.

I'm almost of the opinion that if Lego wants out, then we should let him out. But, if he's town, we're pretty screwed if we do that.

The ways people react when suspicion turns their way can be telling - but in this case Lego doesn't want to give us much to go on.

 

We now have one day left to decide. I'm still torn between Finster and Lego.

 

Both D34TH and Finster have FoS'd Lego; it would be easy for THAT to be the day's lynch, but given Lego's post I don't know if that's scum behavior or a raging self-destructive townie.

 

Finster is being far more active and independent to counter the idea of him playing it safe earlier - the activity is appreciated, but does not clear him.

 

I'm going to have to settle on a vote tonight, even if it means literally rolling dice or flipping a coin.

 

-Preston

If I survive the day, I welcome an investigation.

I put my theory on this earlier in that really long post, but TLDR:

* If there's a scum left at all, betting it's a Godfather that doesn't fear the cop. We were talking about Godfather and Ninja both being in play earlier, and so far we have only seen the Ninja.

* Mazu as claimed cop cannot be a SK, and scum wants to find the SK.

* Because neither Mazu or D34TH were killed last night, both scum and SK either wanted to see Mazu's result to try and find the other, or otherwise weren't afraid of the result coming out.

I think your first point is most likely the case. As I mentioned, if there was an SK, don't you think, with no way to track him, he'd be killing us with impunity?

 

I think there's a godfather among us, and, in order of likelihood:

1. Lego

2. Preston

3. D34th

4. Maz

5. Me

 

And reality 3-5 aren't likely, tho I could be wrong about D34th, even given the investigation that exonerates him, but I don't hold it as likely.

On phone so will be brief:

 

Both Finster and Preston seem to have the same suspect order, divided only by each excluding themselves. This is not a surprise given the little information available, but I hesitate when I see everyone pointing at Lego - it feels too obvious.

 

I still want to hear some updated opinions from Mazu and D34TH - the latter hasn't posted since Maz's correction. And if Lego is still here, weigh in on the discussion - I don't think a replacement is going to happen.

No replacement? All right. I'll be away ALL day tomorrow.

 

So thoughts?

 

I'm bored right now. So that said, I feel there is an SK, and it could well be someone trying to "lead" the town. Remember, SK "hates" scum too, right?

 

At the moment, I'm thinking there are no scum, just a hunch. But an SK, and he is well hidden. I know I'm not him, but...

 

Preston has been very actively leading, I'm concerned. Also Mazureek, role claim is smelling a little bit fishy. That calls D34TH and Preston's towniness into doubt.

I'm on the phone too but I feel like Mazu is really sketching me out still but I don't know, there have been too many coincidences when he might be scum.

 

And by too many I mean two.

He investigated someone twice which I feel like he forgot who he said before, no one would just forget and if he's sun and there isn't an sk just a town killing role then he could say anyone is normal, except for the tk role. So if there is anyone that hasn't been investigated then that might be the tk and mazu is scum

 

2nd he messed up on what he got when he investigated me. Another time forgetting what he or someone else said earlier. I have a bad feeling about mazu...

D34th brings up valid points about Mazu - that his screw ups are almost too much to be overlooked...

D34th brings up valid points about Mazu - that his screw ups are almost too much to be overlooked...

Yeah, Mazu has had two major mistakes so far - first that he investigated me a second time, and second that he corrected himself on what he saw with D34TH. Mistakes like those would normally trigger heavy scrutiny on the potential of it being a scum fake-claim.

 

The only reasons I'm willing to give Mazu a pass on those mistakes instead of calling them scummy slip-ups are that 1) Without his claim we only have had 4 town roles this game when we are looking at possibly 5 scum (number/balance mismatch), and 2) since no-one has counter claimed cop that would mean we would have had no cop at ALL - despite us talking about a Godfather now, and the only thing that would have fooled would have been Mazu's normal cop or Rhizo's JoAT. Assuming a Godfather without a Cop doesnt make sense.

 

For Mazu to have faked a cop claim as scum, he would have had to have known the roles of EVERYONE who remained as of the time he claimed - so that he'd know no cop counter-claim would be coming. There are other, less central and testable roles to fake claim - see what KH did. I think Mazu has made mistakes, but so far still think his claim is still valid.

 

.

No replacement? All right. I'll be away ALL day tomorrow.

 

So thoughts?

 

I'm bored right now. So that said, I feel there is an SK, and it could well be someone trying to "lead" the town. Remember, SK "hates" scum too, right?

 

At the moment, I'm thinking there are no scum, just a hunch. But an SK, and he is well hidden. I know I'm not him, but...

 

Preston has been very actively leading, I'm concerned. Also Mazureek, role claim is smelling a little bit fishy. That calls D34TH and Preston's towniness into doubt.

It's good to see a response from Lego, and fairly quickly after I asked too.

 

So do I understand correctly that Lego's theory is that because I'm helping scum hunt and pushing people to be active - basically leading - that makes me a more likely SK? This sounds very similar to the argument iSocialism pulled attacking Ali just before he was lynched and Ali was night killed.

 

But what catches my attention more is that Lego questions Mazu's cop claim, and then tries to say it ALSO casts doubt on D34TH and I as a result. Questioning Mazu I can understand given his mistakes (see above), but if Mazu's claim is false AND Lego also wants to suspect D34TH and I as a result... that could only happen if both Mazu was scum AND there was another scum beyond that; how many scum does Lego think are still alive? That runs counter to his stated idea of there being NO scum and just a SK left - which makes me think that Lego is looking for any reason to make everyone else a suspect and see what sticks.

 

Overall that contradiction in this post has now moved Lego more solidly to the top of my suspect list.

 

Since we are now hours away from the deadline, I am going to cast my vote now.

 

Vote: Lego

 

I WILL check the thread in the morning before the deadline, and if needs be I'll adjust my vote based on any conversation that may follow tonight - but I don't want today to end in a no-lynch and give up on finding the remaining scum because we ran out of time.

 

In the case this gets hammered before I get back to the thread, my remaining suspect order is Finster, D34TH, Mazu - with this few people it forces us to question those we had otherwise thought 'proven' town for good reasons. Finster helped hammer KH yesterday, but it could have been because the alternative was to be lynched himself; and D34TH's "ghost" text may be confirmed, but it doesn't prove him clear of being Godfather or SK.

 

Who knows - maybe if Lego proves to be the last scum, it'll be Town Win and all of these questions will be academic. But if not and I don't survive until tomorrow - good luck everyone left in finding the last scum!

 

-Preston

I'm going to join Preston here with my vote, for reasons stated above. I still have lingering doubts about Mazu, as things are too coincidental with him, mainly that he isn't dead yet, and his mistakes.

 

That said, when I researched the Cop role this morning to see if my hunches were right, I did find that the Cop role really doesn't have a scum equivalent. So, maybe we chalk up his mistakes to be just that, mistakes. Overall, he's been helpful, so that can't be discounted.

 

VOTE: Lego