236 replies to this topic

[iSocialism]

Yeah but hitting a VT raises the chance of the cop, if so, of hitting a scum. 2/8 is a 25% chance, while 2/7 is a 28.5% chance. Though it raises the chance of scum hitting the cop. We can look at the statistics from either side of the table. However, if we just end the the day with a no lynch we have a 0% chance of hitting scum, but most importantly little to no information to gone on. A no lynch isn't bad, but we shouldnt easily concede to it. We need to see how everyone reacts to multiple things/situation.

[Robert2424]

Yes but the general activity is crap.

[captainjf]

 

Lyner is right, the vote is our only weapon, let's use it.

Unvote Lyner (joke vote)
Vote: tW

it feels like he may be trying to get Rafay lynched without having to vote for him himself.

I'm not trying to get anyone lynched. I am not afraid to vote for someone I believe to be scum beyond a shadow of a doubt. Right now, I am not at that point. I am simply laying out who I am suspicious of in case I am killed at night.

 

We have 3 more days to decide what we want to do. We have a 22.22% (2/9) chance of lynching scum on day 1 and a 77.77% (7/9) chance of lynching a townie.

 

Since we have quite a few people voting no-lynch already, here is the breakdown of the no-lynch vs lynch debate:

-Assuming the worst case scenario (miss-lynch + night kill every day), we will lose after lynching on day 3.

-Assuming the worst case scenario (miss-lynch every day except day 1 + night kill every day), we will lose after the mafia's night kill on night 3.

 

 

 

Hello all!

 

Vote: TW

 

 

 

I
haven't voted for captainjf because I was willing to chalk his vote up
to being new and following along because he didn't know any better. It
is certainly suspicious though and a move a noob scum would make,
especially if he saw his scum buddy already voting for me..

 

FOS LordSunday and Rafay.

 

@captainjf - Would you mind explaining your vote on me?

 

Like you said, I'm new and just saw people voting for you, so I did as well

 

 

Not to call you out or anything, but you were able to post yesterday and agree with TW's exact reasoning for you voting him yet didn't unvote...

 

FOS: Captainjf

 

@Captainjf : Can you address this?

 

 

Of course. You already know the reason I made my vote. When I saw people suddenly unvote, I didn't see it necessary to unvote at the time. I'm learning the process of playing the game and decided to unvote afterwards until someone actually gained my suspicions rather than just jumping on-board with the crowd vote.

[Robert2424]

Like you already have?

[iSocialism]

@captainjf. What are your thoughts about the game/players right now. Anyone that jumps out to you as suspicious?

Are you oppose to a no-lynch vote on day one?

Is activity or the lack of a good or bad thing?

 

These are some basic question that normally go around on the day one. It will help you be involve, and not to be lynched because of the lack of participation. You don't have to answer all of them, or any of them. However, it's a good idea to have these questions in your mind.

 

Some people will argue that a no-lynch is a pro-town move, while some as myself. Will say that it's just an easy place to let the scum hide, and strike during the night without much info the next day. A no-lynch just extends day one, just under the name of "day two"though. Wagons build info, such as your third vote on TW. It allows us to see who someone is willing to vote for, defend, or not vote for. If TW flips scum, you probably would be consider town afterwards.

[Electric Mango]

I would be amazed if we actually manage to lynch someone today although I am all for it.

[Robert2424]

Lol. Not with activity like this.

[Lyner]

There is a merit to a no lynch day one with this setup; we're guaranteed at least one active ability townie, which means we can start day two with one townie having more information

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (2): iSocialism, Lyner,
iSocialism (1): Rafay,
The Warrior (1): Electric Mango,
Lyner (0):
Electric Mango (0):
Captainjf (0):
LordSunday (0):
Finster Baby (0):
Robert2424 (0):

 

No lynch: Finster Baby, Robert2424, LordSunday,

 

Not voting: The Warrior, Captainjf,

 
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, March 23 at 12:00 EDT

[Finster Baby]

We'd have a little more activity if the forums would stay active.

I have a 1 person list, and that's Captainjf right now, based on his actions at the beginning of the day.

[Electric Mango]

Sounds like no lynch is going to win the day

Unvote: tW -still #1 on my list but a useless vote because he will not be lynched today anyway

Vote: no lynch

Let the warrior or captain place the "hammer" vote on Rafay or no lynch to end the day. At least if one of them do it we would at least have more info to go off or at the very least get D2 here a day faster.

[The Warrior]

Ending the day early isn't in the town's favor. We should be using the time we have to pressure people to speak. Unfortunately we missed a day because of forum problems and half the people here aren't posting much anyway.. And 5 votes are needed to end a day early so that isn't going to happen. 

 

Current post count:

               

The Warrior 12

KevinH 10

Robert2424 9

Finster Baby 8

LordSunday 7

Electric Mango 6

iSocialism 6

Lyner 5

Rafay 5

captainjf 4

 

I'd like to hear more from Rafay, Lyner, and iSoc. Does anything stick out to you all at this point?

[Lyner]

Since deadline is coming pretty soon I guess it comes down to:

1. No Lynch.

2. Rafay reaches half majority.

 

Those who haven't voted yet, feel free to make a decision.

[iSocialism]

What more would you like to hear, or do you just want to look like you're adding pressure?

[Electric Mango]

Does anyone know if the warrior is usually for a day one lynch?

[Finster Baby]

I believe TW thinks that if there's compelling evidence for a D1 lynch to do so.

Rafay's activity, again, is wanting, after he committed to being more active. He goes on my list with Captainjf

Also: Lyner: NL would win if tied with Rafay, since NL got to half majority first.

I'd rather go NL than lynch a townie D1. Unless someone has compelling evidence against Rafay (and I'm pretty sure there isn't any, and we all know I hate how he plays) I won't be changing my vote.

[Lyner]

D1 lynch is pretty much a popularity vote, there won't ever be any solid evidence unless the scums have some loose screws

 

 

 

Anyways, I'm giving scum points for those who didn't try to vote seriously.

[The Warrior]

What more would you like to hear, or do you just want to look like you're adding pressure?

I was asking for whether or not you, Lyner, and Rafay had developed a feeling on anyone in particular since you have the fewest posts other than captainjf. I am interested to hear any thoughts you have and am encouraging you to share them.

 

Does anyone know if the warrior is usually for a day one lynch?

I don't believe that a day 1 lynch should automatically be ruled out. We may not have any hard evidence on anything (unless someone royally screws up) but getting everyone to talk, strategize, and see how they respond when questioned should absolutely happen. If everyone just votes "No Lynch" right away the town has gained nothing and the game might as well have started on night 1.

 

Since the options are lynching Rafay or no lynching for today (since we are already past the deadline), I will at least put a vote on the record before Kevin closes the game and vote no lynch. I have suspicion with how Rafay spoke up on captainjf's behalf before he would even do so though.

 

I can also see a scenario where Captainjf could have checked into the game and saw several votes on me (including Rafay) and might have made a rookie mistake by thinking "Well I see that my scum partner voted for TW so that must be a good move. I'll vote for TW too."

 

That alone isn't enough evidence for me to seriously vote for Rafay or Captainjf yet so:

 

Vote: No Lynch

[Rafay]

Unvote

 

Vote: No Lynch 

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Rafay (2): iSocialism, Lyner,
iSocialism (0):
The Warrior (0):
Lyner (0):
Electric Mango (0):
Captainjf (0):
LordSunday (0):
Finster Baby (0):
Robert2424 (0):

 

No lynch: Finster Baby, Robert2424, LordSunday, Electric Mango, The Warrior, Rafay,

 

Not voting: Captainjf,

 
Day 1 ends with no lynch.

 

It is now Night 1.

Please send all night actions to me by 17:00 EDT Monday, March 27.  

If all night actions come in earlier, I'll open Day 2 early.