910 replies to this topic

[vgmmaster]

 

But the great almighty PR roles, thee shall lead us on day two. Assuming they have something from last night. which I hope so, we wouldn't Kevin efforts for a no lynch to go completely in vain. Oh Power roles, sans watcher, what gifts do you bring upon us? As we sacrifice one to save another. Won't ya bless us, and not look upon my sin of a, day one. How could I know the angle, if the lengths were not measured.

​Even if we don't get much info from power roles today I don't think that justifies your decision. You may have cost us a day at the end of the game (if someone could do the math on that it'd be awesome).. and we probably will get some help from power roles. So your arguement there, while pretty, is weak IMO.

 

 

It's difficult to provide math in the technical sense as we could have up to two vigilantes floating around (or then could be a PGO / Vengeful townie). Ignoring power roles though, it looks a little like this:

 

With zero no lynches:

 

Day 2 - 12

Day 3 - 10

Day 4 - 8

Day 5 - 6

 

With a no lynch:

 

Day 2 -13

Day 3 - 11

Day 4 - 9

Day 5 - 7

 

Provided we're following the basic setup of 11 Townies and 3 Mafia, Day 5 would be a game over provided we hit zero scum all game. That said, with the additional killing power roles (which may or may not be on the town side), the numbers aren't that cut and dry.

[KevinH]

On a serious note, it usually stands to reason at least 1 scum is on the lynch wagon.

I agree with this, but the math can get twisted.

Reasonable facts/assumptions:

• 12 players are alive
• 3 players are scum
• 9 players are townies
• 4 players voted to lynch a townie on day 1

If only 1 scum voted to lynch, that's a 1/4 chance (25%) on each member of {The Warrior, Lachiton, legoboyvdlp, iSocialism} that they are scum.

But if the other 2 scum did not vote to lynch then from my perspective, it's 2/7 chance (28.6%) of being scum for each of the other players that did not vote to lynch.

(The denominator is 7 because I know that I am not scum and did not vote to lynch).

 

 

 

[FrigidInferno]

If only 1 scum voted to lynch, that's a 1/4 chance (25%) on each member of {The Warrior, Lachiton, legoboyvdlp, iSocialism} that they are scum. But if the other 2 scum did not vote to lynch then from my perspective, it's 2/7 chance (28.6%) of being scum for each of the other players that did not vote to lynch. (The denominator is 7 because I know that I am not scum and did not vote to lynch).

It also stands to possibilty that 2 mafia voted as well. [lol on the sentence inbetween the (   ).] I honestly doubt that 3 mafia voted for goldiron.
In all honesty, i would have gone for lego boy at night because he seemed to be the most deducing person(sorry all ), considering his lengthy post on his opinions around page 4-5(about to take a nap so i cant be bothered). but obviously, take my opinions with a grain of salt. please tell me to clarify anything if i didnt make sense(happens a lot).

All in All, im keeping my FOS on Lego

[legoboyvdlp]

It also stands to possibilty that 2 mafia voted as well. [lol on the sentence inbetween the (   ).] I honestly doubt that 3 mafia voted for goldiron.
In all honesty, i would have gone for lego boy at night because he seemed to be the most deducing person(sorry all ), considering his lengthy post on his opinions around page 4-5(about to take a nap so i cant be bothered). but obviously, take my opinions with a grain of salt. please tell me to clarify anything if i didnt make sense(happens a lot).

All in All, im keeping my FOS on Lego

 

 

What precisely do you mean? A pr investigation on me? A night kill? A vigilante / whatever kill?

[FrigidInferno]

ii was talking about mafia night kill, thank you for pointing that out

[Lord MK]

Then we have Seebee who ran around naked last night, he's mainly put it off as joke along with everybody else, but I don't see why it happened to him, unless he has a night action or a night action was proformed on him. SeeBee, can give a serous comment on this? Course a power role could have something.

Everything i posted in the introduction text and will in future texts, are not random and have an reason why it was there.

Figure this out(get somewhere close to the answer) and you will get the real reason.

Vote Count:

SeaBeeGipson (0):
Lachiton (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
Canik(0):
KevinH (0):
Vgmmaster (0):
The Warrior (0):
Rafay (0):
legoboyvdlp (0):
Robert2424 (0):
iSocialism (0):
FrigidInferno (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: SeaBeeGipson, Lachiton, Brewersalliance, Canik, KevinH, Vgmmaster, The Warrior, Rafay, legoboyvdlp, Robert2424, iSocialism, FrigidInferno

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, 18th January 2018 at 6 PM UTC.

[FrigidInferno]

oooo so its part of the whole story i love it.

[legoboyvdlp]

I like it. I'll have a go but I'm not that good at puzzles like this

[legoboyvdlp]

A tired writer was driving to his home, in his Prius, after a long day at work.

When he was stopped dead in his track.
In another part of town, SeaBeeGipson was seen running around naked. He was apparently high.

11 hours later....
The Warrior was commuting to his workplace, when he stopped his vehicle. A huge crowd had formed on the road.
There was a Prius lying crushed on the road, but no sign of the driver.

Forensics indicate there was some fight last night.
On tracing the identity of the owner, it was found to be of one KtKat16, a controversial writer in the Ninok Times.

Recently, he had made public a recent big deal, involving drugs and this was the retaliation.

 

Would this suggest one of the people KitKat mentioned was in fact scum?

The Warrior is possibly a Commuter, thus town if he is in fact one.

 

SBG naked and high. Could suggest he used a night action, and also considering the deal involving drugs could mean he killed KitKat.

 

Maybe the fight means there was some conflict between a roleblocker and another night action?

 

Is this all too obvious to be true?

Or maybe Kitkat supplied drugs to SBG, and the mafia faction killed him because they "want exclusive rights to the supply"?

[Canik]

 

 

 

It's difficult to provide math in the technical sense as we could have up to two vigilantes floating around (or then could be a PGO / Vengeful townie). Ignoring power roles though, it looks a little like this:

 

With zero no lynches:

 

Day 2 - 12

Day 3 - 10

Day 4 - 8

Day 5 - 6

 

With a no lynch:

 

Day 2 -13

Day 3 - 11

Day 4 - 9

Day 5 - 7

 

Provided we're following the basic setup of 11 Townies and 3 Mafia, Day 5 would be a game over provided we hit zero scum all game. That said, with the additional killing power roles (which may or may not be on the town side), the numbers aren't that cut and dry.

 

​Thanks Vgm. If nothing else this gives us a better idea of what we have to work with. 

​@The Warrior - 

​You justification for your vote is one of the better ones I'll give you that but still hard to not be suspicious of you when you had a hand in a town lynch. And if the flavor texts means something... maybe you came across Kitkat 11 hours later because you were returning the scene of the crime! Just had to check out your handy-work eh?! hehe nah, I doubt SLMK make it that obvious.

​Hmm.. so much wine in front of me! What's a mayor to do? *starts drinking*

​Vote iSoc

A tough choice but for now I'm going to go ahead with iSoc to get the ball rolling. He hammered a town which would be somewhat bold for a scum but I find it rather likely scum could think they could get away with it in this case. Since almost everyone was fine with it and all that.

​
​

[FrigidInferno]

I agree with canik, but im not going to vote because then people will accuse me of buddying up or whatnot.

[The Warrior]

@MK

 

The way that the roles were presented in the OP seems to indicate that only one role from each line could exist in the game. Is that correct or am I reading that wrong? 

 

 

If the flavor text is not just "flavor text" and is actually hinting at night action it would be interesting (and potentially game altering). Based off of MK's post I am going to assume that the flavor text is indeed hinting at night action. So here is what we know for sure then:

 

1) GoldIron was a 1-Shot Watcher. If my above assumption is correct than it eliminates the possibility of a 1-Shot Commuter role existing in the game which means that I cannot be a Commuter.

 

2)Something happened surrounding SBG. Does the fact that he was running around naked indicate that he attempted to target someone? Perhaps as a Neighborizer or a Fruit Vendor? If SBG is a Neighborizer than I think he is trying to start a nudist colony. Or the text could indicate that he is a fruit vendor running around handing out fruit worthlessly. As trivial as that role seems to be, SBG definitely seems like the type of person that might enjoy picking it.. 

 

3) Something happened to me. The term used by MK ("commuting") does not actually indicate that I am a Commuter (see above). I know that I did not perform an action last night so I am assuming that an action was performed on me. Since I was "driving my vehicle and was stopped by a large crowd formed in the road", I am thinking that someone tried to prevent me from performing a night action. I believe that this means that I was either Roleblocked (which means that we have a roleblocker in the game and no doctor) or that I was "jailed" by a jailkeeper (which means that we do not have a tracker). I am going to assume that if I was role blocked by a roleblocker it was more likely done by a scum roleblocker than a town role blocker. I am assuming that a townie would have chosen the Doctor role over the roleblocker role.

[legoboyvdlp]

I am assuming that a townie would have chosen the Doctor role over the roleblocker role.

 

 

You wouldn't really have a choice as far as I know. I think it was 50/50 which one you got. 

The way that the roles were presented in the OP seems to indicate that only one role from each line could exist in the game. Is that correct or am I reading that wrong? 

 

 

correct

[The Warrior]

 

I am assuming that a townie would have chosen the Doctor role over the roleblocker role.

 

 

You wouldn't really have a choice as far as I know. I think it was 50/50 which one you got. 

I think that if you won the bid for a particular set of roles that you got to pick which of the two roles you wanted and the other was discarded from the game.

[brewersalliance]

 

 

I am assuming that a townie would have chosen the Doctor role over the roleblocker role.

 

 

You wouldn't really have a choice as far as I know. I think it was 50/50 which one you got. 

I think that if you won the bid for a particular set of roles that you got to pick which of the two roles you wanted and the other was discarded from the game.

 

You didnt get to pick the roles, so it was randomly picked for you.  So that means either TW is playing dumb about this or he didnt get a power role, because if he did get a power role he would have known they were random and not a choice.

[Canik]

You didnt get to pick the roles, so it was randomly picked for you. So that means either TW is playing dumb about this or he didnt get a power role, because if he did get a power role he would have known they were random and not a choice.

​Unless he got the role he wanted. I still wasn't entirely clear on it myself. 

[brewersalliance]

@MK

 

The way that the roles were presented in the OP seems to indicate that only one role from each line could exist in the game. Is that correct or am I reading that wrong? 

 

 

If the flavor text is not just "flavor text" and is actually hinting at night action it would be interesting (and potentially game altering). Based off of MK's post I am going to assume that the flavor text is indeed hinting at night action. So here is what we know for sure then:

 

1) GoldIron was a 1-Shot Watcher. If my above assumption is correct than it eliminates the possibility of a 1-Shot Commuter role existing in the game which means that I cannot be a Commuter.

 

2)Something happened surrounding SBG. Does the fact that he was running around naked indicate that he attempted to target someone? Perhaps as a Neighborizer or a Fruit Vendor? If SBG is a Neighborizer than I think he is trying to start a nudist colony. Or the text could indicate that he is a fruit vendor running around handing out fruit worthlessly. As trivial as that role seems to be, SBG definitely seems like the type of person that might enjoy picking it.. 

 

3) Something happened to me. The term used by MK ("commuting") does not actually indicate that I am a Commuter (see above). I know that I did not perform an action last night so I am assuming that an action was performed on me. Since I was "driving my vehicle and was stopped by a large crowd formed in the road", I am thinking that someone tried to prevent me from performing a night action. I believe that this means that I was either Roleblocked (which means that we have a roleblocker in the game and no doctor) or that I was "jailed" by a jailkeeper (which means that we do not have a tracker). I am going to assume that if I was role blocked by a roleblocker it was more likely done by a scum roleblocker than a town role blocker. I am assuming that a townie would have chosen the Doctor role over the roleblocker role.

1) correct there cannot be a commuter

2) he was probably targeted by the fruit vendor and ate the fruit which was tainted with drugs

 

I still think either TW or Robert is scum, since Kitkat was very controversial, so the scum could have easily left him alive to be lynched, and the only reason I can think of is that he was actually right with one of them being scum, and kitkat was drawing attention to them with his jokes.  Right now im leaning more towards it being TW.  He was driving to work at night, and who does work at night? vigilantes work at night (Batman).  I think TW was playing dumb about not knowing how the power roles are asinged, and he has a killing power role and is indeed scum, thus trying to throw us off his scent.

 

Vote:  TW

[brewersalliance]

and just to add on to that.  Maybe TW was roleblocked, and wants the town to think the roles were chosen and not random, so if a rb was picked it would have to be scum since town would have picked doctor (according to TW) , even tho we have a town rb, so if the role cop hits the roleblocker, TW is hoping that they will have fallen for his trap and assume the rb is scum 

[Robert2424]

If SBG is a Neighborizer than I think he is trying to start a nudist colony.

 OMG I BUSTED OUT LAUGHING.....

that I was "jailed" by a jailkeeper (which means that we do not have a tracker).

tbh, if I was a jailkeeper I would of likely choosen you last night, but I'm not, but I can picture somebody doing this. 

You wouldn't really have a choice as far as I know. I think it was 50/50 which one you got. 

I cannot say weather this is true or not and blame MK. 

kitkat was drawing attention to them with his jokes. 

Can you qoute these jokes your mentioning? 

[brewersalliance]

If SBG is a Neighborizer than I think he is trying to start a nudist colony.

OMG I BUSTED OUT LAUGHING.....

that I was "jailed" by a jailkeeper (which means that we do not have a tracker).

tbh, if I was a jailkeeper I would of likely choosen you last night, but I'm not, but I can picture somebody doing this.

You wouldn't really have a choice as far as I know. I think it was 50/50 which one you got.

I cannot say weather this is true or not and blame MK.

kitkat was drawing attention to them with his jokes.

Can you qoute these jokes your mentioning?

Do you really want me to scroll back and find it?