684 replies to this topic

[SeaBeeGipson]

So assuming 3-4 scum with 14 players were around a 20%-25% to hit scum with a random lynch.

I dont believe we've had a breakdown of PRs available so we arent sure what power roles we have nor the scum.

Given the random odds being the same for any player, I'll keep my vote on SM. She has the same odds of being scum as anyone else.

I'm not sure of the math tho if it would be better to no lynch or lynch today. Do we get a free day if we no lynch?

Assuming factors like SK potentially existing or a trigger happy vig (for the 3rd game in a row), our math relying on whether we get a free day or not might be flawed.

As for now I have no strong suspects but want to keep a vote on SM as I dont believe we should end today with a no lynch.

[brewersalliance]

Because it's an even number if we no lynch we keep the same number of mislynches-asssuming there isn't a second night kill any time or anything else

[Lachiton]

I thought you wanted a d1 lynch? Considering we have no idea about PRs or whether we have another scum faction or SK, wagon analysis might be best lead to go off on d2, unless cop or tracker, if they exist, tastes success.
Cons of a d1 lynch is we hit cop/tracker forcing an early rc.

[Colonel Medved]

Vote Kverst

 

Wake up :U

[brewersalliance]

I thought you wanted a d1 lynch? Considering we have no idea about PRs or whether we have another scum faction or SK, wagon analysis might be best lead to go off on d2, unless cop or tracker, if they exist, tastes success.
Cons of a d1 lynch is we hit cop/tracker forcing an early rc.

yes, I do still want a d1 lynch.  I was just pointing out the math in a vaccum

 

however without knowing what will happen at night and without knowing the roles, a lynch is by far our best option

[Robert2424]

I mean, I lean more towards a day one no lynch, but no means I want to end the day early with it. 

[brewersalliance]

can we get an updated vote count?

[Kverst]

hmmm, brewers seems to be really excited about d1 lynches...

 

vote brewers

[Lord MK]

hmmm, brewers seems to be really excited about d1 lynches...

vote brewers

Out of the blue and straight up accusations without much basis.

Vote: Kverst

[Kverst]

As far as I can see, this is an information game, meaning you don't want to straight up lynch a random person because you have a high chance of screwing up. Also, brewers voted me up, and as I said, he is pushing a d1 lynch.

 

unvote brewers

 

vote no lynch

[Rafay]

Kevin is a really active poster. He even posts the number of times other people have posted. Somethings not right.

 

Vote: KevinH

[Kverst]

Just saying, you have a higher chance of hitting an inno with a random lynch than scum...

[The Warrior]

Vote Count

 

Brewersalliance (1): Lachiton

CampinKiller (0):

Colonel Medved (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (2): Nadarr, Rafay

Kverst (3): Brewersalliance, Colonel MedVed, Lord MK

Lachiton (0):

Lord MK (0):

Nadarr (0):

Rafay (0):

Robert2424 (0):

SeaBeeGipson (2): Sister Midnight, Robert2424

Sister Midnight (1): SeaBeeGipson

Wolfpacks (0):

 

No Lynch (3): Wolfpacks, KevinH, Kverst

 

Not Voting: CampinKiller, iSocialism

 

With 14 players alive it take 8 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline will be at 3:00pm CN Server time on Tuesday, December 18th.

[brewersalliance]

This is Kvrests first game and he's now posted a few times so without concreet info id feel kind of bad if he is the lynch but with that being said I do want a lynch today. Just don't wanna end someone's very first game d1 lol he might be scum and I might regret this but ehh my vote was on him for activity but he has since shown up and posted a couple times.

So for now: unvote
Vote colonel medved

He's been very quiet as well, and is usually pretty active

Wakey wakey eggs and lynchey

[Wolfpacks]

So far I've not seen any reason to change my vote it's pretty much the same in all D1s except maybe Rafay.

[The Warrior]

Vote Count

 

Brewersalliance (1): Lachiton

CampinKiller (0):

Colonel Medved (1): Brewersalliance

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (2): Nadarr, Rafay

Kverst (2): Colonel MedVed, Lord MK

Lachiton (0):

Lord MK (0):

Nadarr (0):

Rafay (0):

Robert2424 (0):

SeaBeeGipson (2): Sister Midnight, Robert2424

Sister Midnight (1): SeaBeeGipson

Wolfpacks (0):

 

No Lynch (3): Wolfpacks, KevinH, Kverst

 

Not Voting: CampinKiller, iSocialism

 

With 14 players alive it take 8 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline will be at 3:00pm CN Server time on Tuesday, December 18th.

[brewersalliance]

Oh, medved is actually right in the middle for posts... Oops. Either way I'm keeping my vote on him. He jumped on Kvrest right after I voted for Kvrest for activity, perhaps he was trying to form a quick wagon on him, which basically happened as MK also quickly voted for Kvrest as well...

So my vote stays where it is
And Kvrest has since come alive and posted a few times but his vote is still on Kvrest, even tho the reason for the vote was activity.

[Nadarr]

Unvote!

 

Vote CM

 

I follow brewer's reasoning and sounds good to me. For now.

[Kverst]

That’s a good enough reason

Vote medved

[SeaBeeGipson]

I thought you wanted a d1 lynch? Considering we have no idea about PRs or whether we have another scum faction or SK, wagon analysis might be best lead to go off on d2, unless cop or tracker, if they exist, tastes success.
Cons of a d1 lynch is we hit cop/tracker forcing an early rc.

Worst case if we might hit a cop, they could RC and hope there is a doctor or some protective role.

Again we dont know what roles exists so I'd rather not depend on such roles even existing.