[KH-21] JOAT^2 Mafia
This game mimics Mafia Championship Season 7 as found at
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/forums/69-Mafia-Championship-Season-7
The setup:
3x Mafia Goon
2x Town Jack Of All Trades (9x Doctor, 9x Motion Detector, 9x Tracker)
10x Vanilla Townie

The Jacks Of All Trades must use all three actions before repeating an action, i.e. they are rotating. This does not mean they must use the actions in the same order every time.

Players:
Lilweirdward, Vanilla Townie, killed Night 1
Torres951, Vanilla Townie, killed Night 2
Tony Maurice Vanilla Townie, lynched Day 3
Wolfpacks Vanilla Townie, lynched Day 4

ghaws, Vanilla Townie, killed Night 4

Lord MK, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 5

Ali bin Turban, Town Jack Of All Trades, killed Night 5
Velocity, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 6

Ferastical, Town Jack Of All Trades, killed Night 6

Rafay Vanilla Townie, lynched Day 7

The Warrior, Vanilla Townie, killed Night 7

Finster Baby, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 8

brewersalliance, Vanilla Townie
Lyner, Vanilla Townie
Robert2424, Vanilla Townie




Rules:
• During the Day phase, each player may speak and vote in-thread.
• If a player receives the majority of the available votes during the Day, they are lynched.
• At deadline, a player with half-majority will be lynched; tied votes will result in a player being lynched at random from among the tied players
• You may vote No Lynch.
• After the Day, the game goes to Night.
• The game thread is closed during the Night.
• All Active Roles may submit actions via PM at Night.
• The Mafia can, as a faction, kill one player at Night.
• Mafia factional kills are assigned; they display as an action to the Tracker and the Motion Detector actions.
• The mafia faction kill is mandatory.
• Mafia may communicate at any time.
• After the Night, the game goes to Day.
• All dead players (lynched or killed) can no longer participate in the game.
• Basic rules for maintaining the integrity of the game thread are in effect (i.e. players may not quote their Role PMs, nor may they discuss the game outside the game thread unless otherwise permitted, etc.)
• The game is won when only one faction remains in the game, or nothing can prevent the same.
• Mass role-claiming is allowed.

Game Days will last half as many real-life days as there are players alive.
Game Nights will last 48 hours.

Sample Role PM:

Hello, xxxxx
You are a Vanilla Townie
You win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

Vote Count:
brewersalliance (1): Lilweirdward, 
Lilweirdward (0): 
Ali bin Turban (0):
Ferastical (0):
Finster Baby (0):
ghaws (0):
Lord MK (0):
Lyner (0):
Rafay (0):
Robert2424 (0):
The Warrior (0):
Tony Maurice (0):
Torres951 (0):
Velocity (0):
Wolfpacks (0):

No Lynch (2): brewersalliance, Lord MK, 

Not Voting: Ali bin Turban, Ferastical, Finster Baby, ghaws, Lyner, Rafay, Robert2424, The Warrior, Tony Maurice, Torres951, Velocity, Wolfpacks

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Monday, August 24 at noon EDT.
 
I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day.  Feel free to exceed it.

@mk  i was writing it while you must have posted so I missed it

 

so unFoS Mk   for now haha

 

 

I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day.  Feel free to exceed it.

 

 

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED 

Brewers voting no lynch? Wow.

 

vote lww.

 

hey!

@mk i was writing it while you must have posted so I missed it

 

so unFoS Mk for now haha

 

I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day. Feel free to exceed it.

 

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED

1.50 posts a day

 

I have succeeded

 

@mk i was writing it while you must have posted so I missed it

 

so unFoS Mk for now haha

I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day. Feel free to exceed it.

 

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED

1.50 posts a day

 

I have succeeded

 

I HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO

I trust statistics more than i trust Lww.

You know there are 3 types of lies in this world:

1. Lies

2. Damned lies

3. Statistics.

 

Forewarned is forearmed. Tho I do tend to believe MK.

Where'd all the numbers come from?

Check the link in Kevin's OP. It's a community dedicated to Mafia that has a tournament going on where all games share this format. So far, out of the 11 games played in that tournament, scum won 8 of them.

Check the link in Kevin's OP. It's a community dedicated to Mafia that has a tournament going on where all games share this format. So far, out of the 11 games played in that tournament, scum won 8 of them.

All 11 of those games had a D1 lynch and they have all ended with scum 8 out of 11.

 

Let's try and see what happens when we don't lynch d1.

 

Lww, You said that we don't do the same stuff the mafiascum wiki.

You are right.

D2 in our community is almost exactly like d1.

And that's another reason why we need a NL.

Nl + 1 NK tonight leads us to 14 players alive tomorrow.

And since D2 for us is like D1.

It would be like starting out with 14.

And mafia games throughout history show that town win more when starting with even numbers.

Did any of them try no-lynching on D1? No, because it's generally a poor strategy. You're just handing scum a free kill to start the game and wasting an entire day for no reason, and you don't really get anything out of it except playing around with the odds. Plus you're basically dooming one player to not even getting a chance to play, which isn't really fair. It's the same thing as allowing mafia to kill on N0, it's just generally bad form.

 

There's not much downside to lynching someone today. There's a 20% chance that we actually find a mafia, and even if we mislynch, we still get to start establishing voting patterns which is going to be crucial in this game. Obviously there's the risk of accidentally forcing a JOAT to RC, and of course there's an 80% chance that we'll mislynch generally, but the benefits outweigh those risks IMO.

also

 

There have been 11 games played using this set up

 

All 11 games had a lynch D1

 

Mafia won EIGHT of those 11 games with a D1 lynch

 

Town won twice

 

and there was 1 draw

 

I hate to say this but going off the game history, a Day 1 lynch has lead to a mafia victory 73% of the time

 

with that being said... and I cannot believe I am doing this...

 

Vote No Lynch

I have to go with this, brewers logic is logical for once

 

Vote: No lynch

town has won this game only 18% of the time.  so we have our work cut out for us.  Our JOATS better be solid players and if not, please be smart and research the roles before doing shit

wow difficult game

I wanted to continue my streak of vig killing :[

I wanted to continue my streak of vig killing :[

There is always night 4

 

also

 

There have been 11 games played using this set up

 

All 11 games had a lynch D1

 

Mafia won EIGHT of those 11 games with a D1 lynch

 

Town won twice

 

and there was 1 draw

 

I hate to say this but going off the game history, a Day 1 lynch has lead to a mafia victory 73% of the time

 

with that being said... and I cannot believe I am doing this...

 

Vote No Lynch

I have to go with this, brewers logic is logical for once

 

Vote: No lynch

Since when do I have bad logic

Did any of them try no-lynching on D1? No, because it's generally a poor strategy. You're just handing scum a free kill to start the game and wasting an entire day for no reason, and you don't really get anything out of it except playing around with the odds. Plus you're basically dooming one player to not even getting a chance to play, which isn't really fair. It's the same thing as allowing mafia to kill on N0, it's just generally bad form.

 

There's not much downside to lynching someone today. There's a 20% chance that we actually find a mafia, and even if we mislynch, we still get to start establishing voting patterns which is going to be crucial in this game. Obviously there's the risk of accidentally forcing a JOAT to RC, and of course there's an 80% chance that we'll mislynch generally, but the benefits outweigh those risks IMO.

I think no Lynch might be the best here

 

Clearly lynching isn't working for town in this set up.

 

Yes we have different abilities than championship mafia but that also means scum won't be as talented too

 

Check the link in Kevin's OP. It's a community dedicated to Mafia that has a tournament going on where all games share this format. So far, out of the 11 games played in that tournament, scum won 8 of them.

All 11 of those games had a D1 lynch and they have all ended with scum 8 out of 11.

 

Let's try and see what happens when we don't lynch d1.

 

Lww, You said that we don't do the same stuff the mafiascum wiki.

You are right.

D2 in our community is almost exactly like d1.

And that's another reason why we need a NL.

Nl + 1 NK tonight leads us to 14 players alive tomorrow.

And since D2 for us is like D1.

It would be like starting out with 14.

And mafia games throughout history show that town win more when starting with even numbers.

Stop stealing my stats I posted

 

 

town has won this game only 18% of the time. so we have our work cut out for us. Our JOATS better be solid players and if not, please be smart and research the roles before doing shit

wow difficult game

Yeah I do think it honestly comes down to who our JOATs are. Scum can easily play safe with only a couple ways to get caught so we need very strong joat play. And we need to be active. If we aren't active scum will 1000000% win

 

 

 

@mk i was writing it while you must have posted so I missed it

 

so unFoS Mk for now haha

I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day. Feel free to exceed it.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED

1.50 posts a day

 

I have succeeded

I HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO

Damn it, it grouped them all into one post

Vote: Brewers

 

It is unlike him to suggest a no lynch! That's an obvious scum tell

So what's the strategy?

 

From a glance it seems that VTs should draw attention from scums to buy time for JoAT

 

And JoATs should only RC if they caught all scums?

Did any of them try no-lynching on D1? No, because it's generally a poor strategy. You're just handing scum a free kill to start the game and wasting an entire day for no reason, and you don't really get anything out of it except playing around with the odds. Plus you're basically dooming one player to not even getting a chance to play, which isn't really fair. It's the same thing as allowing mafia to kill on N0, it's just generally bad form.

 

There's not much downside to lynching someone today. There's a 20% chance that we actually find a mafia, and even if we mislynch, we still get to start establishing voting patterns which is going to be crucial in this game. Obviously there's the risk of accidentally forcing a JOAT to RC, and of course there's an 80% chance that we'll mislynch generally, but the benefits outweigh those risks IMO.

1) it's not a bad strategy.

Kevin always tried no lynching d1.

And guess who has the most wins in our mafia forums, Kevin, not you.

So i would take advice from Kevin and do a no lynch in his game.

In fact, i bet he choose this game so that we would think of no Lynching naturally this time.

 

2) the NK would happen regardless of whether or not we lynch someone. Making grand expressions to get town to follow your lead. (Scum Tell #1)

 

3) that player who's going to get offed tonight, would be offed regardless of what happens with our lynch. (Misdirection - Tell #2)

 

4) And all that talk about not giving the Nked player a chance, but no talk about the player we are going to be lynching today?

(Hiding hidden motive to kill off town - Tell #3)

 

5) we can't risk losing the Joat on n1, although you think otherwise(Hail Mary attempt to get the joat exposed early - Tell #4)

 

So after all evidence gathered.

If we are going to be lynching anyone, it's got to be you.

Pushing aggressively for killing off townies with no information whatsoever, is scummy.

 

But as i said, Town wins more games with even starting number.

And we will only get that with NLing and starting the game anew tomorrow.

@lww - I get the argument to want to lynch but we are going to have very limited ability in this game to actually scum hunt with only having two JOATs. Vote analyzing will become more helpful as the game goes on but I’d rather not take the chance of lynching one of our only power roles or forcing them to claim on day 1.

 

But for the sake of argument, let’s say we opted to lynch today and hit a VT (as the odds tell us we likely would). That leaves 14 players alive going into the night. 3 scum, 11 townies. Of those 11 townies 2 of them are JOATs. That gives the scum ~18.2% chance of killing one of our only power roles.

 

Alternatively, if we choose not to lynch today, there will still be 15 players going into the night. 3 scum, 12 townies. Of those 12 townies 2 of them are still JOATs. That gives scum a slightly smaller ~16.7% chance of hitting one of our JOATs.

 

The difference may only seem like ~1.5% but in a game with only two town power roles it benefits us if they stayed hidden as long as possible.

Damn..everyone is a mathematician at this point

 

FoS anyone advocating for a day 1 lynch.

 

Scum wins at a 4 to 1 clip when lynching with this set up on day 1.

 

Sure we have no evidence to what the win rate is with a no Lynch, but with the track record of a Lynch on day 1 being with it is, it's worth the risk.

Oh cool. I'm alive.

 

VOTE FINSTER

 

Haven't seen you in forever playing mafia. I feel I should give the IRON Mafia welcome.

I mean, if you think about it the other way around, the numbers are only going to get worse until we start killing scum. Tomorrow there will either be 14 or 13 players, and then our odds of doing town harm by mislynching go up. Same for the next day, and the day after - every day we don't kill scum, the more likely we either mislynch our only PRs or they get killed at night by mafia. Waiting puts a lot of pressure on the JOATs to get it right, and they each have a 1/20 chance to actually watch or motion detect the right person, not counting the days they'll be limited by having to use their doctor shot, and not including the chance that they accidentally catch each other, so it's not a guarantee that this strategy will even work on its own.

 

I'm not even remotely the best player here, and if you guys are dead set on no lynching then I wish you the best. I just know this is gonna be a hard game to win regardless, and based on the few games I've played here so far, town gets the most help by having information to speculate on. There are too many inactive and inexperienced players - myself included - to start the game by completely entrusting it to the JOATs.

 

FoS anyone advocating for a day 1 lynch.

 

Oh the sweet sweet irony of you being the person to post this lol.

I mean. I'm for no lynches. But someone with a good argument might be able to persuade me to lynch brewers or Rafay.

 

 

I mean, if you think about it the other way around, the numbers are only going to get worse until we start killing scum.

 

The strategy is not about not hunting scum, it's about waiting for anything, literally anything that could positively confirm who scum is. There is definitely not a 20% chance that we will lynch scum, it's rather much lower. You are forgetting the human aspect of this, scum will talk their way out and we will most definitely end up lynching a townie. Add a NK to that, and we've already lost 2 influential people.

 

 

No Lynch is a no-brainer.

 

Vote: No Lynch

Please provide links to all examples that back up the stats.

Oh cool. I'm alive.

 

VOTE FINSTER

 

Haven't seen you in forever playing mafia. I feel I should give the IRON Mafia welcome.

OMGUS!!

 

VOTE: Robert2424

 

OMGUS!!