36 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

Scum does not get a night kill.

Vote Count:

Electric Mango (1): Electric Mango

Bryan93 (0)

Captainjf (0)

Imran Ehsan (0)

 

Not voting: Bryan93, Captainjf, Imran Ehsan 
 
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
There is no deadline.

 

[Electric Mango]

"If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine." ~ Ben Franklin

[KevinH]

Let me step in to explain that it's "fair".

The first lynch is basically selecting a townie to kill somebody else or reducing the game to a named townie making a 50/50 choice to win or lose the game.

The mafia with 2 votes has a bit of influence ... they can try to kill one of their own and get to the 50/50 choice or play it out with a day-vig.

If the selected person is town, then they indeed have a 2/3 chance of hitting mafia with the day-vig shot but if a mafia is killed it's down to a 50/50 choice for the next lynch.

If the day-vig is unlucky and kills the other townie the the mafia win immediately

There are no investigations or other certain information so it all boils down to a couple of guesses; those that believe in "scum-hunting" by interpreting posts would disagree.

[Imran Ehsan]

Ok no night kills for scum makes it clear. Let's see the scenarios (i found Kevin's clarification a bit confusing on a couple of points...so working it out on my own way)

1. Scenario 1 - Scum is lynched. 1 scum left and 2 townie left...out of whom 1 is confirmed town. So 50/50 chance of lynching 2nd scum. If townie is lynched,
scum wins.

2. Scenario 2 - Townie is lynched. Townie doesn't die, 2 town 2 scum left. Townie dayvigs. If he hits scum, 2 town left of whom 1 is confirmed and 1 scum left. 50/50 chance of lynching 2nd scum to win.

If day vig hits town, 1 townie left and 2 scum left. The scums gang up to lynch confirmed townie and wins.

So if we lynch EM and assume he is town, that doesn't really increase the odds of town winning. At best it will be down to 50/50 and at worst scum will win outright if EM misfires.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Electric Mango (1): Electric Mango

Bryan93 (0)

Captainjf (0)

Imran Ehsan (0)

Not voting: Bryan93, Captainjf, Imran Ehsan 
 
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
There is no deadline.

[captainjf]

Thanks for the clarification Kevin and Imran. Am I wrong with the math thinking that Scenario 1 gives town the best odds at finding the scum? It's only a 50/50 shot as mentioned, but scenario 2 seems a lot more random...

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Electric Mango (1): Electric Mango

Bryan93 (0)

Captainjf (0)

Imran Ehsan (0)

Not voting: Bryan93, Captainjf, Imran Ehsan 
 
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
There is no deadline.

[Electric Mango]

Ok, it seems like a couple people here aren't too keen to my Day 1 lynch  strategy.    I'm open to hear some better suggestion.

[Imran Ehsan]

Well the other option is to try to lynch the scum, which seems to be the better option then lynching a townie. This is of course assuming EM is a townie as claimed, he may very well be a scum trying to mislead the townies to go on into the worse option.

would like to hear more from bryan, who has been quite.

[Bryan93]

Game still so new to me...im still grasping it lol i do think its a lil sus that EM was all for the self kill now hes open to other suggestions

[Imran Ehsan]

Well if EM is scum and scum was trying to steer the townies towards the worst option (lynching townie), then its unlikely they would have voted for themselevs (like EM did), because that steers the game towards scum lynch, so thats contradictory. However EM did step back from his self lynch option, but did not Unvote, which is a plus point.

 

I also noted the kind of banter between EM and captain at the start of the game. Seemed like a forced ploy to distance each other, with one saying the other is sus and the other saying the same too. So if EM does turn out to be scum I wont be surprised if captain is his scum partner.

 

Going by the above, I would like to get the game moving and cross out one of my theories (EM+capt) as scum team. So

 

Vote: Captainjf

 

If we are assuming EM is town and go with strategy that lynching scum first is the best strat for town, the option to lynch comes down to captain or bryan. Bsed on my theory, cap is likelier to be scum than bruyan, so going with my gut on this.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Electric Mango (1): Electric Mango

Captainjf (1): Imran Ehsan

Bryan93 (0)

Imran Ehsan (0)

Not voting: Bryan93, Captainjf,  
 
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
There is no deadline.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Electric Mango (1): Electric Mango

Captainjf (1): Imran Ehsan

Bryan93 (0)

Imran Ehsan (0)

 

Not voting: Bryan93, Captainjf,  
 
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
There is no deadline.

[Electric Mango]

We still learn more from lynching a townie Day 1 and having them live through it than we would if we just going for mafia right away.  Not only would we ultimately target a mafia, we learn a confirmed townie along the way.   It's the ultimate Day 1 move.   Those who are against are going against the best interest of the town.   

[Imran Ehsan]

We still learn more from lynching a townie Day 1 and having them live through it than we would if we just going for mafia right away.  Not only would we ultimately target a mafia, we learn a confirmed townie along the way.   It's the ultimate Day 1 move.   Those who are against are going against the best interest of the town.   

 

We learn a confirmed townie either way, lynching a mafia or town. If town is lynched (and doesnt die) that confirms him as townie. If  mafia is lynched, he is forced to confirm a townie. The only difference is, as I see it, is if you lynch a townie you put the game completely in his hands, if he shoots wrong, game over. But even if he shoots right, the game is back to 50-50, which is the outcome we will get anyway if scum is lynched.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Electric Mango (1): Electric Mango

Captainjf (1): Imran Ehsan

Bryan93 (0)

Imran Ehsan (0)

 

Not voting: Bryan93, Captainjf,  
 
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
There is no deadline.

[Bryan93]

Well in the interest of getting this game moving along.....

 

Vote: EM