25 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

Scum does not get a night kill.

Vote Count:

Electric Mango (1): Electric Mango

Bryan93 (0)

Captainjf (0)

Imran Ehsan (0)

 

Not voting: Bryan93, Captainjf, Imran Ehsan 
 
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
There is no deadline.

 

[Electric Mango]

"If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine." ~ Ben Franklin

[KevinH]

Let me step in to explain that it's "fair".

The first lynch is basically selecting a townie to kill somebody else or reducing the game to a named townie making a 50/50 choice to win or lose the game.

The mafia with 2 votes has a bit of influence ... they can try to kill one of their own and get to the 50/50 choice or play it out with a day-vig.

If the selected person is town, then they indeed have a 2/3 chance of hitting mafia with the day-vig shot but if a mafia is killed it's down to a 50/50 choice for the next lynch.

If the day-vig is unlucky and kills the other townie the the mafia win immediately

There are no investigations or other certain information so it all boils down to a couple of guesses; those that believe in "scum-hunting" by interpreting posts would disagree.

[Imran Ehsan]

Ok no night kills for scum makes it clear. Let's see the scenarios (i found Kevin's clarification a bit confusing on a couple of points...so working it out on my own way)

1. Scenario 1 - Scum is lynched. 1 scum left and 2 townie left...out of whom 1 is confirmed town. So 50/50 chance of lynching 2nd scum. If townie is lynched,
scum wins.

2. Scenario 2 - Townie is lynched. Townie doesn't die, 2 town 2 scum left. Townie dayvigs. If he hits scum, 2 town left of whom 1 is confirmed and 1 scum left. 50/50 chance of lynching 2nd scum to win.

If day vig hits town, 1 townie left and 2 scum left. The scums gang up to lynch confirmed townie and wins.

So if we lynch EM and assume he is town, that doesn't really increase the odds of town winning. At best it will be down to 50/50 and at worst scum will win outright if EM misfires.

[KevinH]

Vote Count:

Electric Mango (1): Electric Mango

Bryan93 (0)

Captainjf (0)

Imran Ehsan (0)

Not voting: Bryan93, Captainjf, Imran Ehsan 
 
With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
There is no deadline.

[captainjf]

Thanks for the clarification Kevin and Imran. Am I wrong with the math thinking that Scenario 1 gives town the best odds at finding the scum? It's only a 50/50 shot as mentioned, but scenario 2 seems a lot more random...