446 replies to this topic

[Lyner]

Interesting killgor. Shoot me up, prepare though

 

 

EM I think we can all agree that you're indeed a townie, unless both iSoc and AT is a scum

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 4.01
 

Alternate_Tree (0) -
d3mon (0) -
Electric Mango (0) -
Euclid of Alexandria (0) -
Imran Ehsan (0) -
killgor (0) -
Lyner (0) -

Not Voting (7) - Alternate_Tree, d3mon, Electric Mango, Euclid of Alexandria, Imran Ehsan, killgor, Lyner

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
No one is the current wagon leader at L-4
Deadline is Saturday, August 10th, 2013 @ 11:00 EDT

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Also, aren't we supposed to have another power role?? Imho, it would be the perfect time to roleclaim to win the game.

I'm just gonna say again what I always say: PRs should not claim unless they have something useful to share or are about to get lynched otherwise.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@Lyner: Please tell us who you think is scum.

@killgor: You said you were gonna explain your vote for Lyner. Please do.

[killgor]

hey guys. sorry for the delayed post, but heh, going to a Rammstein concert supersedes everything. anyway, following a one-shot hunch, i have used my one-shot power and did a one-shot investigation on our one and only Lyner here, thus explaining my one-shot vote. anyway, this is my one-shot roleclaim at being the one-shot cop.

[killgor]

also,

vote: Lyner

because i can't find my name in the people who voted section.

[Imran Ehsan]

To me its just a question of who to lynch first: lyner or d3mon

 

Vote: Lyner

 

If kilgor is scum and is false-claiming we will know he is scum when we lynch Lyner.

[Lyner]

I knew it, it seems my decision was right

Sorry killgor, you picked a wrong target, I am the cop

 

AT is a vanilla townie, checked it last night, I was going toing to announce it at the start of the day but after seeing killgor's post I decided to wait so he can't get away and change his plan by saying like it's just a hunch

 

Which means the last scum is either d3mon or Euclid

And sure if you can't believe me just lynch both of us, but hey kill killgor first pwease, I still wanna play

 

 

Vote: killgor

[Kaziocore]

also,
vote: Lyner
because i can't find my name in the people who voted section.

 

Player Actions/Voting/Player Death

• Votes must be at the beginning of a new line, using bold (VOTE: Player name). If you do not wish to lynch, you may VOTE: No Lynch. Abbreviations, missing punctuation, and misspellings will be accepted as long as it is obvious to me who is being voted for. If I perceive it as a vote, it counts as a vote

 

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 4.02
 
 

Alternate_Tree (0) -
d3mon (0) -
Electric Mango (0) -
Euclid of Alexandria (0) -
Imran Ehsan (0) -
killgor (1) - Lyner
Lyner (2) - killgor, Imran Ehsan

Not Voting (4) - Alternate_Tree, d3mon, Electric Mango, Euclid of Alexandria

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Lyner is the current wagon leader at L-2
Deadline is Saturday, August 10th, 2013 @ 11:00 EDT

[d3mon]

Looks pretty straight forward to me.

 

Vote: Lyner

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Interesting developments. Since we still have two scum and can only afford one more mislynch we should proceed with caution.

Scenario 1: lynch Lyner
If killgor is lying and we mislynch Lyner, the cop, we will then have to lynch two scum in a row. Obviously killgor would be one of them, but who would we lynch after killgor? As things stand now it would likely be d3mon. So possibly a scum killgor, if d3mon is not his buddy, could sacrifice himself to get us to mislynch Lyner today trusting that we will mislynch d3mon later thus handing the game to the scum.

If killgor is telling the truth and we lynch Lyner, a scum, then we would still likely lynch d3mon next. If d3mon is scum, great, we win. If he is not we must lynch the real scum next or lose. The real scum would have to be EM, Alt or (being objective here) myself.

Scenario 2: lynch killgor
Substituting Lyner for killgor and vice versa this plays out pretty much the same as scenario 1.

Conclusion
One of Lyner and killgor is scum and we should therefore lynch one of them. However, if d3mon is town, we'll lose the game if we lynch the wrong one and only have a 1 in 3 chance of winning if we get the right one. If d3mon is scum we are sure to win either way.

So how to decide between Lyner and killgor? Killgor's seems more credible since he claimed first. On the other hand killgor put Alt at L-1 yesterday when he could have hammered iSoc. Lyner joined the Alt wagon before KevinH claimed, when it looked like it was going to be between KevinH and iSoc. Knowing now that iSoc was scum I would have expected a scum to join the KevinH wagon at that point.

At this point I'm inclined to hammer Lyner but since the day is still long I would like to get some opinions on the above first.

[d3mon]

Interesting developments. Since we still have two scum and can only afford one more mislynch we should proceed with caution.

Scenario 1: lynch Lyner
If killgor is lying and we mislynch Lyner, the cop, we will then have to lynch two scum in a row. Obviously killgor would be one of them, but who would we lynch after killgor? As things stand now it would likely be d3mon. So possibly a scum killgor, if d3mon is not his buddy, could sacrifice himself to get us to mislynch Lyner today trusting that we will mislynch d3mon later thus handing the game to the scum.

If killgor is telling the truth and we lynch Lyner, a scum, then we would still likely lynch d3mon next. If d3mon is scum, great, we win. If he is not we must lynch the real scum next or lose. The real scum would have to be EM, Alt or (being objective here) myself.

Scenario 2: lynch killgor
Substituting Lyner for killgor and vice versa this plays out pretty much the same as scenario 1.

Conclusion
One of Lyner and killgor is scum and we should therefore lynch one of them. However, if d3mon is town, we'll lose the game if we lynch the wrong one and only have a 1 in 3 chance of winning if we get the right one. If d3mon is scum we are sure to win either way.

So how to decide between Lyner and killgor? Killgor's seems more credible since he claimed first. On the other hand killgor put Alt at L-1 yesterday when he could have hammered iSoc. Lyner joined the Alt wagon before KevinH claimed, when it looked like it was going to be between KevinH and iSoc. Knowing now that iSoc was scum I would have expected a scum to join the KevinH wagon at that point.

At this point I'm inclined to hammer Lyner but since the day is still long I would like to get some opinions on the above first.

 

A very well written and reasoned post.

If for a second, I were to step into someone else's shoes I can understand why I look like the obvious choice for the next lynch but imho, if Killgor and me were scum, he wouldn't be the one to roleclaim. I am definitely in the line of fire and it doesn't make sense to sacrifice someone when the likely candidate for the next lynch would still be me. 

[killgor]

if you are doubting my roleclaim, i have 2 things to say.

 

1. i believe all my actions for the past 2 days have been consistent with me being the 1shot cop (maybe even on the 2nd day since i thought of why there was only 1 night kill after imran roleclaimed. i already knew there was no jailer so there had to be another explanation).

 

2. there is a 1 in 6 chance for me to roleclaim while being scum and stumble upon the actual cop. ok, well, 1 in 5 since imran is probably a vig. but the only defense the scum can have at this point is to fakeclaim so he will most likely do it 100% of all cases. so that will sum up to a 20% chance that i'm lying.

 

and a small addendum. why would i try to fake claim when until now i can't say there was any heat on me in any way? i did my investigation and i exposed it. due to the nature of my role i don't believe i can be of other use to the town except to further diminish the list of suspects as much as i can.

[Alternate_Tree]

That was a quick L-1 set of votes.  As Euclid says, the day is long and we have 5 townies and 2 scum, so we have to make lynches count.

 

Since the cop is clearly the third role because we have 2 opposing parties claiming it, and since there was only one shot finding who is the cop really just gives us another confirmed townie.

 

The way I see it we have 3 main options since we have 3 people that are rather suspicious: d3mon, killgor, and lyner.

 

Option 1, we lynch d3mon, we find out if he was a scum and leave the killgor and lyner debate for the next day and probably lose Imran in the night.  Not a very good option

 

Option 2, we lynch killgor, this gives information on lyner directly and on me secondarily since he roleclaimed and said that I'm a VT, which I am confirming.

 

Option 3, we lynch lyner and get information on killgor directly and on me directly.

 

In any case, lyner and killgor seem to be who to pick, because either way we'll get definitive results on a couple people and that will allow whoever is left to enter the next day with the maximum amount of information.

 

Vote: killgor

 

From my limited point of information I believe lyner is telling us the truth, I am a VT and the whole battle yesterday between me and iSoc should prove that fact since he pointed at me first when he had 2 other people voting for him before I defended myself and pointed back at him.

 

In any case, killgor is far from a lynch vote, and I want the discussion to continue

[Alternate_Tree]

It must take me a bit to wake up in the morning, I didn't take into account the full implication of killgor roleclaiming first in that whole thing.  It makes it either a really good guess on the part of the scum, or a great move by the cop.  Lyner has an easy time with the roleclaim since he knows who VTs are by killgor's roleclaim, but killgor has much better strength behind his roleclaim since, if he is a scum, he would have only a 1/4 chance (excluding 3 people, himself, the other scum, and Imran) of finding the cop for his opposing claim.

 

In any case, if killgor is right and Lyner is scum, my vote doesn't get the lynch even if the other scum switches so I'll leave it as is for now

[Imran Ehsan]

I knew it, it seems my decision was right

Sorry killgor, you picked a wrong target, I am the cop

 

AT is a vanilla townie, checked it last night, I was going toing to announce it at the start of the day but after seeing killgor's post I decided to wait so he can't get away and change his plan by saying like it's just a hunch

 

Which means the last scum is either d3mon or Euclid

And sure if you can't believe me just lynch both of us, but hey kill killgor first pwease, I still wanna play

 

 

Vote: killgor

 

So if you are the cop, why did you investigate A-T of all people? It was clear iSocialism wanted to lynch A-T when when iSocialism turned up scum that almost pretty much exonerates A-T. If I were the cop I would have investigated either d3mon or killgor. Your role-claim is not convincing me.

 

I am pretty positive d3mon is the 3rd scum. there's no point lynching killgor (who i have always thought was a townie) to prove that Lyner is a scum. We need to lynch the most suspicious, and that is Lyner.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Well yes, if killgor is scum then indeed he would have had a 1 in 4 chance to accuse the real cop. In fact, according to Lyner that is exactly what happened. I fail to see how this is relevant.

Ask yourself: would scum killgor even care whether he accuse the real cop or a VT? He wouldn't. The real cop would counter claim either way. His ploy would be for us to mislynch whomever he accuses today, no matter whether it be the cop or not, and then as we find out that he lied we would lynch killgor tomorrow and d3mon after that. Then if someone other than d3mon is actually killgor's scum buddy that would win them the game.

Claiming first still provides killgor with some credibility IMO, but it certainly does not make the choice between him and Lyner clear cut. As I pointed out in my previous post, while killgor has the first claim going for him, Lyner has his Day 3 voting behavior going for him (or more precisely not working against him as much as killgor's).


@d3mon
You may be a townie but there is little to suggest that you are. I can't therefore see how we could not lynch you as soon as the Lyner-killgor thing has been sorted. Especially since if you are scum lynching you will win us the game. Nonetheless, the fact that you may be a townie is exactly why I think we should take some care trying to make the right choice between Lyner and killgor, because if you are town then today's choice will decide the game.

I wanna hear from EM now.

[d3mon]

pfft.. why can't we just lynch me today Anyhow, I was hoping that there was a cop in the game and that he would investigate me. Ah.. well.. apparently I wasn't scummy enough for that but the real disappointment is that even the fake cop gave me the skip.

[killgor]

sorry d3mon. i actually started the 3rd day thinking i will scan euclid and hoping i would stay alive until today. i wanted to search euclid because he seemed quite reluctant to lead compared to the previous games we played. but when isoc flipped scum, i flipped a coin between you 2 and he "won". oh well... next game i get to be the cop, i'll keep you in mind.