926 replies to this topic

[Ali bin Turban]

We have interesting string of actions:

 

- Rafay posting: "Any suspects? Particularly ppl who were pointing him out or talking w/ him. Lets see Mand's previous conversations." suggesting we might find scum in the crowd of ppl interacting with him.

- Literally 30 minutes later 1ceCream shows up quoting me. He took quite an effort in those 30 minutes to dig through 12 pages to find my quote. Yet he does not find Mandarijn - Lego interaction that occurs on the first page.

- Sometime later Lego appears and basing on that singe quote he FoSes me.

 

What options do I see here:

1. Three concerned townies are trying to find out who killed Mandarijn. Sure, possible, though they're not appear very concerned. On one hand 1ceCream is able to dig out my quote form a small wall of text out of the middle of this thread, on the other he fails to spot other interactions that are easier to find. And Lego again does not appear to be much concerned with finding out the truth. No questions, no speculations, just FoS.

2. All three are scums setting up a trap. I'm not so sure about that...Rafay does not seem connected with the scum team considering the way he was piled on. And scum didn't defend him...or did they? There actually was another wagon: "no - lynch" wagon that was securing Rafay. There was a moment when both Rafay an no-lynch got 4 (page 10) but then people start migrating and it changed into 6-4 for no-lynch. Notably both lego and 1ceCream ended on no-lynch (lego was on Rafay at 4-4 moment, but he jumped off quickly).

3. Rafay's not connected, just posted accidentally (and there was high probability for anyone to post such question) and two others have latched to it.

4. Some other variations - mathematically there are 8 but I'm not going to write them all.

 

Now if I assume there was option 1, than there was no grand scheme in this, just a string of thoughts from several people.

Things get more interesting when I assume it was either option 2 or 3. I see two possibilities

 - I could be improvisation, scum saw a question and started digging the topic and within 30 minutes he's found something he could use.

 - It could be a crafted plan, with this being a reason of why Mandarijn has died and the answer being ready to apply as soon as someone has asked a question. But such a plan would be very clumsy one. If there were even just one experienced player in the scum team he surely would say it won't fly.

But what if there are no experienced players in scum team? They could try something like that. But why would they want to accuse me and not someone else? I was actually the only one pushing at them, so it's possible. Then why would they kill Mandarijn and not someone else? I was pointing at KevinH (but so did many others), Preston (there was strong interaction with Lyner too), CoD (strong interaction with Lyner again), Finster (just me?) and finally a Mandarijn.

 

Presumably it's all randomly, so there's a chance that whole scum team is inexperienced (though we don't know what's in TW's black box - are there any secret rules like "scums are random, but need to have at least one experienced player"?). If they are, this may be the motive.

 

Few other things:

 

@Lego, your response was "Hmm. Interesting there, 1ceCream.". Please tell us what's so interesting about this and what are your conclusions?

 

@1ceCream did respond odd to my question (I'm not questioning his parent's health problems and my father is currently experiencing problems too):

"I know I should post to be pro-town, but I didn't have anything to say and didn't want to project myself as scummy by posting things with no substance to help scumhunt." - That actually is something every lurking scum would like to say to receive absolution. Also "posting to be pro-town" may be just a figure of speech or might also show 1ceCream's goal is to appear pro-town.

[Mazuurek]

well...i expected more activity today, i guess not.

[Sister Midnight]

.
Speaking of not making sense, it blew my mind when SM & Rhizo voted at the end of the day when it was well known today was a free no lynch and there was nothing solid on Rafay or Lego. Both were understandable choices but with the free no lynch there is very little reason not to wait until D2. SM is newish I think and Rhizo may be distracted by real life so maybe it was innocent mistakes but still got to note it and will be keeping a closer eye on you two.
 

First off, I am on a tablet and multi quoting is hard, so this is the only quote I'm posting. At least one other person was surprised that I voted for Rafay. I believe I gave a very clear explanation for why I voted for him, but to reiterate, I intensely dislike his lurking, and at the end of last game send at the start of this game I shared my intention to lynch a lurker on night one. I struggled with this as night approached because my instinct was that Rafay might not be scum, and tbh I was ambivalent about going thru with my lynching plan, so I was almost relieved that there was no lynch on the first night.

Based upon the crumb of info to be gleaned from last nights murder and the observations and reactions I've seen so far, I am watching Ali and Lego and Preston. Not ready to finger anyone, but they are all interesting (not to mention kind of cute) to keep an eye upon.

[Canik]

well...i expected more activity today, i guess not.

As if you'd actually join in with anything help if people had been active today You could always share some thoughts on the 14 pages that have already been posted.
 

[Ali bin Turban]

Wow...last day was awfully quiet. Only lurkers. Even KevinH came in, read the topic and left not leaving even a single line as usually.

 

Anyway:

vote Lego

 

My reasons from the last day still stand. Also on D1 he interacted oddly with 1ceCream as if they were working together and here it goes again on the next day. Apart from that he did not answered my questions about his reasoning. 

 

well...i expected more activity today, i guess not.

Why don't you contribute then and create some content on your own?

[Mazuurek]

 

well...i expected more activity today, i guess not.

Why don't you contribute then and create some content on your own?

because i dont want to contribute useless information which serve no point in aiding the town

[KevinH]

It's Day 2.  Somebody knows something.

 

Rafay has already posted, which is a good sign, but still not enough to satisfy me yet.

 

Vote: Rafay

[Lyner]

Wow, I was away for 2 days and nobody accused me for lurking? shocking

 

 

Scums love inactivity, it's day 2, and it's time to kill some scums. I'll post my analysis tomorrow, too tired right now

 

 

 

Anyway Kevin can we have your usual town-scum suspect scoring?

[Wolfpacks]

That's not good we need to find out how they got that lucky

My meaning on this was, that the killing by the scum on D1 of Mandi was very random and indeed lucky, he hardly posted in D1 but got killed by the scum on N1, he only called 3 people Death, Rafay who he voted on and Lego. Any one of them could have sealed his fate, I have been suspicious of Rafay and Lego from d1, but now I'm going to vote for one of them.

Vote Legoboy

Reason, I think he has tried way to hard to disguise himself as town, way too early, that seem scummy to me

[Finster Baby]

I'm sort of waffling between continuing to support Rafay's demise an Legoboy, based on his D1 postings.

I have nothing more concrete to add. This has been one weird one, for sure.

[Canik]

I'm still suspicious of a lot of people. Only ones I'm leaning towards probably being town are Ali & Preston.

If I have to choose between Rafay & Lego.. that is a tough choice.

Rafay, don't like his playstyle.. and.. initially I thought the quick votes on Rafay might mean he was town but with a game this big, it could easily have been all townies voting for him and scum was smart and supported him by just not voting/no lynching. (someone else said this earlier, it'd give credit but don't feel like re-reading thread for it)

Lego, I like his playstyle he has posted a lot. A lot of it has been very suspicious but not real eager to lynch him for it, might make him want to adopt a more Rafay-style of play. It's definitely easier as scum when everyone is used to you not posting and you can just slide by.

Though if we really want to win this game in particular, I do think Lego would be the better choice. He has given more indication than Rafay (thanks to Rafay giving none) and even if he turns up town at least we'd have plenty of info to analysis.

[legoboyvdlp]

Willing to sacrifice myself if it will really help, Canik. Just a VT, so...

When I come up town look at Finster, D34TH, and Ali bin Turban very hard indeed.

[legoboyvdlp]

Actually, I think our best bet is to lynch D34TH. He posts less than me, is less actively scumhunting, will be a smaller loss.

#1 Someone wisely said that either he or I would likely be scum. So if he turns out town I'm likely scum. If he is scum, Finster is likely a scummate and I am almost certainly town.

#2 If we lose him, the town will lose a member that isn't as active, isn't actively trying to scumhunt except in a few cases such as Finster. If you lose me, you lose an active, analytical member.

#3 See what I said above? D34TH and Ali especially say I am scum all the time. So if D34TH is scum, we have a link to Ali and Finster (''confirmed town''). Finster Baby, Ali bin Turban, D34TH, and one other (maybe?)?

#4 So why do I think he is scum apart from a general feeling?



That will have to wait till tomorrow as I have an urgent toilet need and am up for 15h or more at this time. Also stomach upset. Excuse me, got to run.


Again, willing to sacrifice myself if it really will help town. OTOH Canik could just want me to be lynched. But anyway, overall I feel D34TH is a better choice at this time.

More when toilet trouble taken care of.

[Finster Baby]

#1 Someone wisely said that either he or I would likely be scum. So if he turns out town I'm likely scum. If he is scum, Finster is likely a scummate and I am almost certainly town.

#2 If we lose him, the town will lose a member that isn't as active, isn't actively trying to scumhunt except in a few cases such as Finster. If you lose me, you lose an active, analytical member.

#3 See what I said above? D34TH and Ali especially say I am scum all the time. So if D34TH is scum, we have a link to Ali and Finster (''confirmed town''). Finster Baby, Ali bin Turban, D34TH, and one other (maybe?)?

So you base this on what? That I have a finger of suspicion on you? If you notice, while I'm suspicious of your motives and your actions, I haven't actually voted for you. I voted yesterday for Rafay, and lean towards doing it again.

However, continue to throw baseless accusations at me and I may just have to change my mind.

[Preston]

With the weekend mostly over I'm finally back at my computer with enough time to respond. I got to briefly check the thread yesterday and not much had, which still seems to be true; 13 pages for D1, and now only two for D2 thus far. Perhaps the weekend shut everyone down, or alternately everyone is waiting for someone ELSE to take the lead on the day.

My last post left off noting that my suspect list remains Lyner and KevinH, and the Lego/D34TH pair - with a lingering FoS on Ali after he pushed so hard for me yesterday.

Since then Lego and D34TH have traded more barbs, and Lego got somewhat sarcastic with D34TH and then self-sacrificing when talking to Canik, saying he is willing to die if that's what it will take. Then Lego swapped to saying D34TH makes sense to lynch to test the pair of them, and commented "OTOH Canik could just want me to be lynched" - strangely that phrase is what stands out to me, because Canik's post had not yet taken sides between Lego and Rafay. Is this Lego now assuming Canik is against him? It also strikes me how strongly D34TH is pushing for Lego, moreso than anyone else; if Lego is lynched and flips town, D34TH will certainly become a significant person of interest.

So the vote order went:

D34TH voted for Lego
Ali voted for Lego
KevinH voted for Rafay
Wolfpacks voted for Lego

A curious related point is that Ali commented he saw Kevin reading the thread, and Kevin did not post until after there were two votes on Lego. Perhaps Kevin was just busy like everyone else this weekend, but the content of his post is virtually nothing that would have taken time to compose: his standard "Somebody knows something", a comment on Rafay's activity, and a vote for Rafay. Lyner also posted again just after Kevin, asking for Kevin's usual analysis. If Kevin gives more than something based on sheer inactivity, I may be interested - but the interaction between the pair of them is what I am noting the most.

Mazuurek has had a few 'nothing' posts on D2. Maz, you need to start offering more thoughts and opinions and questions; you cant just stay silent the whole game being perpetually convinced you have nothing to offer. Look at what people are saying and write what you think about it - if something doesnt make sense to you then ask about it and get others to have a conversation with you. Right now what you have written looks like inflating your post count and nothing more; a "good morning" and a comment on how slow it is in here. Make some activity happen and hopefully D2 will pick up again.

Ali had an interesting take on how the day started in terms of being possibly set up by Rafay, 1ceCream and Lego. It *is* curious that 1ceCream presented only one Mandarijn-related line out of all of D1 - my prior post dug up a LOT more than that - but it's not enough on its own to make me look that hard at 1ceCream yet, especially since Ali has thrown in his vote on Lego.

My gut vote is almost always NOT for the inactive unless they are shown to be lurking instead of just inactive - so the Rafay vote again has me leery. However I find it very curious that Rafay was active so early on D2's start; it could be a coincidence of timing, or if he is scum it could be him checking in to see the kill result and post a line the scum agreed he should say before lurking again.

Lyner has posted that he will have his analysis tomorrow; normally I'd grumble more about information teases again, but given the weekend's slowness I will give that a pass and just see what Lyner has to say tomorrow.

So no real coherent picture has emerged yet due to the weekend's general inactivity. We have a week left to make a more developed decision. Right now I think that Kevin and Lyner's tandem is still on my radar, and strangely Ali's activity has remained the most constant of everyone. Hopefully Mazuurek will start trying to offer more than the equivalent of "I dont know what to say", and we'll have more to discuss tomorrow.

-Preston

[Samus]

Wow this is what I was fearing.. Too many players and everyones goes inactive :/

 

Let's keep it to 15 players next time plz.

 

re: lego. I don't think he's scum, he sounds abit too jumpy, but this is his second game so he's still abit new, last game when he was scum his posting style is much different to how it is now. Lego has been very active trying to find scum as well, a bit too forced but doesn't make him scum.

 

Willing to sacrifice myself if it will really help, Canik. Just a VT, so... When I come up town look at Finster, D34TH, and Ali bin Turban very hard indeed.

 

Posting like this makes you sound scummy, suiciding yourself isn't helping the town, it sounds more and more of a plea of 'Im not scum, but lynch me and you will feel sorry for yourself when you find out i'm not". Typical pre-meditated guilt trap. Still not convinced you're scum though, you're just jumpy.

 

Re: Rafay.. Still not for lynching you cause of your inactivity YET.. But at this point why shouldn't we? You still aren't defending yourself against accusations regarding your activity..

[legoboyvdlp]

So you base this on what? That I have a finger of suspicion on you? If you notice, while I'm suspicious of your motives and your actions, I haven't actually voted for you.

 

 

Happy you haven't

Based on D34TH's confirmed townie thing. As far as I know, he never explained why, just said ''maybe not confirmed, but I think he is town'' or something along those lines? Or am I wrong? 

 

 

 

Though if we really want to win this game in particular, I do think Lego would be the better choice. He has given more indication than Rafay (thanks to Rafay giving none) and even if he turns up town at least we'd have plenty of info to analysis.

 

@Preston, see above 

 

 

 

 

 Being extremely busy with hydrology (really, I have geography GCSE's next year and started my homeschool course early) I might not be around to defend myself too much. Buy don't think I'm not an expert at dueling. EXPELIARMUS!

if Lego is lynched and flips town, D34TH will certainly become a significant person of interest.

 

 

Precisely my point. But since I would be a bigger loss to town, this being game #2 (isn't this his first?) and I strongly feel he is scum, surely he is a better choice to lynch?

And if he does end up scum, I also strongly suspect I will be killed by mafia tonight. But if he isn't, I'll have made a mistake and be lynched tomorrow. But I still think he is a better choice.

Posting like this makes you sound scummy, suiciding yourself isn't helping the town

 

 

Perhaps my meaning was not clear, it was more like ''if it will help the town for finding a mafia member, by all means lynch me. Next post is why not to lynch me''.

[Finster Baby]

Happy you haven't
Based on D34TH's confirmed townie thing. As far as I know, he never explained why, just said ''maybe not confirmed, but I think he is town'' or something along those lines? Or am I wrong?

I don't see the post you're referencing, but maybe I didn't go back far enough to see it.

Also, I agree with Samus - I think you're town, just jumpy. There's some doubt in my mind about your towniness, but I don't have anything else other than you're trying too hard. That's not enough for a lynch vote from me. Maybe you are scum but I haven't gotten a full scum vibe from you.....yet.

My potential scum list:
Rafay - His usual playing style has me irritated.
Ali bin Turban - Just the vibe, nothing more.
Lyner - Waiting for your analysis in order to get a better feel.
KevinH - You're inactive mate. Scum tell.

[The Warrior]

"Your sons flew that car to Harry's house and back last night! ... What have you got to say about that, eh?"

 

Vote Count

 

legoboyvdlp (3): D34THBR1NG3R, Ali bin Turban, Wolfpacks

Rafay (1): KevinH

Ali bin Turban (0):

Canik (0):

Chaplain of Death (0):

D34THBR1NG3R (0):

Finster Baby (0):

1ceCream (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (0):

Lyner (0):

Mazuurek (0):

Preston (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

Samus (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Canik, Chaplain of Death, Finster Baby, 1ceCream, iSocialism, legoboyvdlp, Lyner, Mazuurek, Preston, Rafay, Rhizoctonia, Samus, Sister Midnight

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch or 5 at deadline.
Deadline is 1:00pm CST on Friday, August 19th.

[KevinH]

KevinH's SuperTownieAnalysisTM:

Categories:
+1 for voting No-Lynch:

1ceCream, Canik, KevinH, legoboyvdlp, Lyner, Wolfpacks

0 for meaningless late votes:

Rhizoctonia, Samus, Sister Midnight

-1 for trying to lynch Day 1:

Ali bin Turban, Chaplain of Death, D34THBR1NG3R, Finster Baby, iSocialism, Preston, Mazuurek, Rafay

-1 for the lowest activity:

Mazuurek, Rafay

 
Results:
+1

1ceCream
Canik
KevinH
legoboyvdlp
Lyner
Wolfpacks

0

Rhizoctonia
Samus
Sister Midnight

-1

Ali bin Turban
Chaplain of Death
D34THBR1NG3R
Finster Baby
iSocialism

Preston

-2

Mazuurek
Rafay