926 replies to this topic

[Preston]

Based on how thin Rhizo's claim was yesterday, I expected to start today with speculation about why he WASNT killed last night - but turns out Rhizo really was a town JoAT, and CoD was actually scum. Unfortunately this also proves the truth of what I said yesterday - that if Rhizo really was town then he should have shared his other night action's result, because now that information is lost and we cannot use it to clear or suspect anyone else.

The scum's losing Canik matters in terms of their losing numbers and keeping us in the game, but with our doctor dead Canik's strongman was likely less useful - this is why until TW opened the day I was thinking Rhizo had pulled a fast one, sacrificing a now-useless scum role to gain townie points.

So now I have to look at CoD, and what his flipping scum means for suspect validity. First off, his being a role-cop opens up some interesting scenarios - either he investigated Lyner N1 so they found the doctor, or he investigated SM N1 to see she was a vanilla townie. I mention the latter because this has potential implications for KevinH's roleclaim - someone he knew he could safely say did nothing. This also means that scum had roles which could be tracked beyond just their kill, so tracker/watcher are not as useless - they could still have a ninja though.

CoD supported the wagons I started this game, setting himself up as my defender. It makes sense in retrospect - tie himself to an analytical townie so that I wouldn't go after him so much as I'd examine everyone else, and if a wagon lynched town I'd get the credit instead of him.

Lego quoted where I commented on this yesterday, but he didn't post the full thing:

CoD: It is not lost on me that CoD has been largely supporting my arguments throughout this game. I would like to think that he simply sees the validity of what I am saying, and that if we were actually a scum team together there is no way it would be anywhere NEAR that blatant. However beyond his initial vote, CoD's conversations with Wolfpacks have played a key role in demonstrating that Wolfpacks will stop lurking and respond when challenged - nevermind that at the time Canik's wagon was still further than his 3:2.

Two points to take from what I said here:
1. It would have made no sense for CoD and I to be scum together; too closely and obviously linked both by posts and votes. Lego quoted the Lyner wagon from D1 with myself, Rafay and CoD - two scum on a 3-person wagon is not a terribly smart idea, even for D1 votes.
2. Even with my slower posting pace, once I started the Wolfpacks wagon CoD pushed Wolfpacks to respond and pursued the point further. So at the time CoD would have rather seen Wolfpacks being lynched over Canik - and given how useless Canik's scum ability is now, I can't see any reason to want to preserve him over Wolfpacks. So that helps push Wolfpacks closer to the town column.

So far this game I have pushed the following:
Lyner - For advocating Rafay lynch D1 while staying on no-lynch himself.
KevinH - Supporting Rafay lynch D1 while on no-lynch himself, and supporting Lego lynch D2 while voting Rafay, and trying to cast criticism of his actions as "Lies"
Wolfpacks - For D2 no-lynch, retreat vote onto Mazuurek, and lurking/reactions D3.

Even if each of these wagons have been wrong, I have pushed for who looked scummy to me at the time - and after D1 in each case enough people agreed with me that the wagon made a difference in how the day turned out, so I am certainly not lurking and playing it safe.

On D2 at its height, KevinH's wagon was: KevinH (8): Preston, iSocialism, Rhizoctonia, Chaplain of Death, Samus, Ali bin Turban, legoboyvdlp, Mazuurek
On D3 at its height, Wolfpacks' wagon was: Wolfpacks (5): Preston, Chaplain of Death, iSocialism, D34THBR1NG3R, legoboyvdlp - plus a FoS from Finster and SM saying "Playing the martyr card makes me want to vote for you"

Without special information I can only scum hunt using what I see in this thread. KevinH has already basically outed that I've got nothing else to work with - I am curious who he tracked last night to further prove his own claim.

In terms of who this leaves me suspecting now:

* I am currently considering Wolfpacks provisionally proven town for the time being - roughly the same status as Kevin, pending Kevin providing more to prove his claim.
* On the Kevin wagon, CoD did not immediately support me - iSocialism and Rhizo did so first. Rhizo is proven town - it is possible iSocialism is a second scum and so CoD did not want to join me immediately. Two scum on a four person wagon is still pushing it though.
* Kevin also pointed out the last few to bandwagon onto his wagon were Ali, Lego and Mazuurek. That may be worth looking into.
* SM and Finster have swapped votes a few times this game - they're not alone in this, but Finster called his vote on Rafay the hammer twice, and both of them were leaning toward Wolfpacks yesterday without having voted.
* With Rhizo proven town, his suspicion of 1ceCream gains additional potential merit

I am not going to vote immediately, despite the votes that are already coming my way - and very quickly even, three already. I know I am likely an easy target today, so that's not surprising.

I want to hear what Kevin has to say on this, as well as Samus and the others who were largely quiet while everything went down yesterday. There is a very real chance that some of the other three scum were laying low yesterday so as to not be involved until they jumped on what they knew would be a 'winning' wagon.

-Preston

[legoboyvdlp]

Samus basically lurking, I call scum till further notice.

FoS Samus, Preston, 1ceCream
Wolfpacks, wrong vote format needs to be on a new line

[Preston]

Not much time this morning, but interesting how three votes piled up for me yesterday within the first few hours... Lego, Finster and Wolfpacks all posted within the first ten minutes even. But now that I've posted, nothing in the hours since except Lego calling out Samus.

[Preston]

I know I'm an easy target today that the scum would like to see gone with minimal discussion looking at anyone else, but let's not stop posting entirely.
Also strange that it didnt merge my last two posts; maybe because I'm posting on my phone. Go figure.

[legoboyvdlp]

Hello?

Anyway, right now, if anyone has any PR results, should they come forward?

[Finster Baby]

I'd like to see any PR results if they're out there.

Right now, my FOS is pointed at Preston, but I'm not ready to commit to a vote, as there are potentially better targets.

I will say tho Preston - if you're trying a misdirection campaign, I'm not buying it.

[Preston]

@Finster
I'm not sure what you mean by misdirection campaign, because I have no one to direct onto at this point. Until I saw that Rhizo was town and CoD was scum, I still suspected Wolfpacks for all the reasons that happened yesterday - but now I have to re-examine everyone else because of what we now know.

Rhizo's suspicion of me yesterday felt like it was based on me starting the Wolfpacks wagon after he started the Canik one - and only because he already knew Canik was scum. However at the time all that was in this thread was Canik voting for Lego and their ensuing back-and-forth; so while Canik looked somewhat scummy, it did not convince me the way Wolfpacks' actions did. To judge from the five votes and additional FoSes/suspicion that accumulated for Wolfpacks, that suspicion was not without merit. For that matter Rhizo shared several of the same suspicions about Wolfpacks at the time, but it was overshadowed by his focus on Canik and made him see my scum hunting as something else.

No matter how wrong my suspicions may have been, I stand by what made me suspect it at the time. Even if it looks scummy now, at least it wasn't simply voting an inactive, or jumping onto someone else's wagon, or throwing a FoS or similar supportive words without voting, or simply staying silent to wait the day out. Where scum would hesitate to start new wagons for fear of the attention it would bring onto them, I have had no such problem.

Given that three votes have very quickly piled onto me, that is what I have to say in my defense: it's just about all anyone without other knowledge can say.

So for now I am going to keep looking for who has until now has avoided stronger inspection, looking at who jumped onto the wagons I started or otherwise tried to lay low. If someone has PR information I'd be inclined to defer to that if their roleclaim seems real, since it would be more solid than anything I can offer. And I would still like to hear Kevin's latest result.

-Preston

(And now I've really got to run, stayed overlong writing this up - should not take time to check the thread in the mornings!)

[Wolfpacks]

I hadn't actually voted yet I was waiting to see what Preston was going to say, I don't think it was just me that mentioned that Preston, Rhizo also thought it was you and COD that could have been scum and he paid a high price for that and I have yet to see anything that has contested his theory.

Vote Preston

[Sister Midnight]

I'd like to see any PR results if they're out there.Right now, my FOS is pointed at Preston, but I'm not ready to commit to a vote, as there are potentially better targets.I will say tho Preston - if you're trying a misdirection campaign, I'm not buying it.

Who do you see as a better target?

I hadn't actually voted yet I was waiting to see what Preston was going to say, I don't think it was just me that mentioned that Preston, Rhizo also thought it was you and COD that could have been scum and he paid a high price for that and I have yet to see anything that has contested his theory.
Vote Preston

It doesn't look good for Preston that had and Chappy, known scum, agreed on pretty much everything. The walls of text are getting really tough on me, Preston, especially because I'm traveling and often only have my phone.

[The Warrior]

"Well, this Halloween will be my five hundredth deathday," said Nearly Headless Nick, drawing himself up and looking dignified.

"Oh," said Harry, not sure whether he should look sorry or happy about this.

 

 

Vote Count

 

Preston (3): legoboyvdlp, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

Ali bin Turban (0):

D34THBR1NG3R (0):

Finster Baby (0):

1ceCream (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (0):

legoboyvdlp (0):

Mazuurek (0):

Samus (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, D34THBR1NG3R, Finster Baby, 1ceCream, iSocialism, KevinH, Mazuurek, Preston, Samus

 

With 12 alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00pm CST on Tuesday, September 6th.

[Finster Baby]

I'd like to see any PR results if they're out there.Right now, my FOS is pointed at Preston, but I'm not ready to commit to a vote, as there are potentially better targets.I will say tho Preston - if you're trying a misdirection campaign, I'm not buying it.

Who do you see as a better target?

Right now, 1ceCream might be a better target based on Rhizo wanting to start a wagon on him before his RC regarding Canik. I will agree tho, Preston's actions, even tho he did make a full-throated defense, don't look good for him, especially his seeming hand-in-hand actions with CoD.

We'll see. I have enough nagging doubt about Preston's scumminess to go for a vote; as I'd hate to see us lose another townie if we're wrong.

[legoboyvdlp]

Shall we then, Finster?

I'll lead the wagon, I agree that Preston is slightly less scummy ATM

 

Unvote

Vote 1cecream

[KevinH]

I saw somebody else do nothing.

 

It wasn't 1ceCream and he'll get my vote for now just to keep it interesting.

 

Vote: 1ceCream

[The Warrior]

Vote Count

 

Preston (2): Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

1ceCream (2): legoboyvdlp, KevinH

Ali bin Turban (0):

D34THBR1NG3R (0):

Finster Baby (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (0):

legoboyvdlp (0):

Mazuurek (0):

Samus (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

 

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Ali bin Turban, D34THBR1NG3R, Finster Baby, 1ceCream, iSocialism, Mazuurek, Preston, Samus

 

With 12 alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is 12:00pm CST on Tuesday, September 6th.

[iSocialism]

The thing is WP hasn't been clear as town. He's actions were scummy and he hadn't given any scum hunting vibes. Only the OMGUS, you voted for me, so then you must be scum.

Even after all the commotion between Rhiz and Canik, Canik only had three votes on him. Which all came back to back to back.

Preston vote did come out on WP after the pile on 3 votes. With CoD following not to far behind. 

FB casts doubt/FoS Canik.

SM was more worried about Maz at that moment. Went up on Rhiz scum list

We get a new list from Rhiz

 

Spoiler

So my new updated List:

 

Likely or Confirmed Town

 

1.  Lego - Town

2.  D34th - Town

3.  Kevin - His RC is only thing keeping him on it...though his actions are questioning that

4.  Preston - Town vibe for now

5.  Samus - Townish vibe for his comments on Lego

6.  Maz - Town with vote on Canik

 

Scum:  Canik, 1cecream

 

That Leaves as possibilities for the other 3-4 scum:

 

1.  SM

2.  FB

3.  Isocialism

4.  Wolfpacks

5.  ABT

6.  CoD

 

 

Doubt rasies about Kevin

 

This happens

 

 

 

If Wolfpacks is town...then Preston jumps from my town list instantly to my scum list and CoD moves up in scum list as well. To know for sure, lynching Wolfpacks will give me that. Might be a choice to do in following days, but this day there's a better choice, actually 2 better in my eyes.

If I was you I'd start working on that premise now Rhizo, because lynching me would be a win for the scum and a loss for town.

Admittedly I have been inactive of late which I wasn't in the first game, I think I need to balance that out. I'm at work at the mo so I'll give a better account of myself when I'm home.

 

 

Considering you all but role claimed a PR (sounds like cop) you might as well come out with your results. You're likely to be killed tonight since you even insinuated that you might be the cop since if scum hit the cop the game is pretty much over, unless Kevin starts getting some lucky hits on tracking.

 

 

Which leads to arguements, in which gives us this

Canik (3): legoboyvdlp, Rhizoctonia, Mazuurek

Wolfpacks (2): Preston, Chaplain of Death

Chaplain of Death (1): Wolfpacks

Mazuurek (1): KevinH

 

D34th also onto WP

lego adds his vote right at the end onto WP's wagon

AbT to Canik's

 

Which leads to Rhiz's roleclaim, and this

Canik (8): legoboyvdlp, Rhizoctonia, Mazuurek, Ali bin Turban, Sister Midnight, Finster Baby, Wolfpacks, Chaplain of Death
Wolfpacks (3): Preston, Chaplain of Death, D34THBR1NG3R
Mazuurek (1): KevinH

 

The canik wagon was there almost the whole time, the only thing before that was a two vote on ice, by rhiz and lego. My point is being on canik's wagon after the roleclaim does not buy townie points for anyone. Rhiz knew his results while no one else did. He wasn't able to find the evidence or at least present it in a way that made the town/players want to follow his action. The only way rhiz got Canik lynched is by roleclaiming. No one was willing to go in on Canik;s wagon. People were more interested in other players, or at least wanted to act that way.

I'm more worried about the other scums then, also the people who were hesitant on Canik at first and then late on his wagon later.

Now that day 4 starts though, we can see that Rhiz, might have single handedly won the game for town by taking out two scums. With him being a JOAT. I would think that there would be 5 scums in the 18 player game.  Which would make it 28% scum, which is high but 4 scums would make it 22%. With A JOAT in the mix and there hypothetically only being 4 scums, it would had made it 6 total perfect days and 5 nights for the scum to win.  They would have to control majority in order to win, so 7 players left, 11 dead. With 5 scum, it would be 9 players left, 9 dead. 5 perfect days and 4 nights. Unless a role could had stop them. If there were 4 scums with a town JOAT, not assuming roles from scum it could make it very hard for the scum to win.  I;m saying all this, because I  believe there to be 5 scums which would mean 3 scums left, One in which is probably Ninja, probably a GF assuming by last game, and something else.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If Wolfpacks is town...then Preston jumps from my town list instantly to my scum list and CoD moves up in scum list as well. To know for sure, lynching Wolfpacks will give me that. Might be a choice to do in following days, but this day there's a better choice, actually 2 better in my eyes.

If I was you I'd start working on that premise now Rhizo, because lynching me would be a win for the scum and a loss for town.

Admittedly I have been inactive of late which I wasn't in the first game, I think I need to balance that out. I'm at work at the mo so I'll give a better account of myself when I'm home.

 

 

Considering you all but role claimed a PR (sounds like cop) you might as well come out with your results. You're likely to be killed tonight since you even insinuated that you might be the cop since if scum hit the cop the game is pretty much over, unless Kevin starts getting some lucky hits on tracking.

 

Also, SM sorry about the wall. 

[legoboyvdlp]

One in which is probably Ninja, probably a GF assuming by last game, and something else.

 

 

Likely a goon... we have a strongman + a role cop killed, so + a ninja + a godfather, would it be likely to have 5 scum PR?

OTOH maybe there is no ninja or godfather.

 

Kevin, who exactly did you track?

 

If ANYONE has any results that equal scum, (assuming no framer), come out now!

If anyone has any results that mean someone is 100% town, come out now!

[iSocialism]

I was also wondering if the JOAT was in place for a Cop

[Finster Baby]

I'm not sure that's gonna happen Lego.

iSoc: I'll defend the "speed" of my jumping on Canik's wagon: I'm not very good at the analysis part of mafia. This is only my 4th game. I tend to lean on the veterans analysis and then process it based on what some others say, and what is believable.

When Rhizo initially pointed at 1ceCream, I wanted to see where the wagon went. Then he RC'ed and pointed Canik as scum. As I had no reason to disbelieve Rhizo, I immediately voted Canik.

I'm now this close to voting 1ceCream, unless someone posts some very good evidence regarding Preston or someone else, based on what Rhizo said on D3.

I was also wondering if the JOAT was in place for a Cop

Can't discount that, tho if I were the cop, I'd be laying low unless I had something game changing. We don't have a doctor to protect him.

[legoboyvdlp]

I'm not sure that's gonna happen Lego.

 

 

Finster, I clearly meant if anyone has a result or multiple results that point to one or more person / people being scum. 

game changing

 

 

game changing, see above

[Sister Midnight]

UNVOTE

I am driving from Quebec to Montesl atm. I'm on my phone. Will read and post more when able.