661 replies to this topic

[D34THBR1NG3R]

My role: You are Professor Lupin, a Hogwarts Tracker.

 

 

Night 1 I tracked KevinH and saw nothing, night 2 i tracked King H (SeeBea) and say nothing, night 3 I tracked Yehom and saw nothing.

 

I know that isnt much to go on but it might somehow prove people innocent and later claims to be liars. 

 

Ali bin Turban: I feel a scum vibe fro him as I find it very unlikely that he is going to say that his "result" was scum and there might have been a framer, just seems pretty fishy and not too believable

KevinH: My results said he didnt visit anyone so i assume he isnt that powerful of a role if he is scum

Chaplain of Death: Kinda just does what everyone else does, however SeaBee said this but maybe scum distancing from other scum late game?

D34THBR1NG3R: Ya know, I'm me. My role and everything is above

SeeBea: Might be the 2nd scum, and if he is I suggest looking hard at CoD too for reason above

Mandarijn: Kinda unlucky and confusing start but it seems to me like he could be some sort of PR which is why he wanted to be switched out quickly (also could be a good role for scum)

Isocialism: Maz was kinda sketchy in the beginning and Isoc straightened that out, kinda leaning on scum here

Rhizoctonia: Came clean in investigation. Could be immune but the town vibe is strong enough with this one.

Sister Midnight: acting wayy too strange not to be scum

 

Wolfpacks: Claims he's a cop, seems believable so far although he had a bit of rockyness in day 2

Yehom: Came up as not doing anything so again I'm gonna say town or unimportant scum (no scum is really unimportant but still)

[Ali bin Turban]

My apologies. I looked back further and found Isoc and SM's analysis.

That quote shows I have been truthful about my gut feeling as you are a townie but like I mentioned the information we have been provided says otherwise and my gut hasn't been right all game, or we'd have some dead scum it feel likes. My vote on you is based on the information provided by WP not my gut.

That quote shows that 48h ago you opted for my lynch, 24h hours ago, when it turned out town is reluctant to do it, you suddenly didn't want to, and now when pressured you're back to your original idea.

Back to the discussion about possible scum team composition.

 

I consider KevinH, Rhizo, Wolfpacks, CoD confirmed conditionally (I'm assuming Wolfpacks is not paranoid cop and Godfather does not exist since Framer does). Obviously I'm leaving myself out too.

 

That leaves 6 people to cover 4 scum positions

Mandarijn I believe to be town.

 

Accidentally SM, SBG, ISoc, Yehom were the ones that were circling around Wolfpacks results, making half hearted comments, afraid to cast the first stone...like they knew what will happen (then KevinH went straight to the business, even though he was mistaken, and SM followed).

However I don't think that this is the scum composition. There's obvious conflict between SBG <-> SM and less obvious between Yehom <-> SM (I believe they were poking each other).

 

- SM would be first candidate for a scum due to her behavior...though I'm not so sure anymore, since SBG (whom I think is a scum) is gunning at her (and has been doing it since D2). I find it possible that she might be another townie that's fumbling / not caring just like Robert did. 

- SBG - I was keeping him as one of the suspects for a long time. After this recent conversation I'm almost certain he's scum. If SM is town, she's the most vulnerable and best action for scum would be to push for my lynch today and blame her tomorrow.

- Death - very quiet through the game and very nervous at the same time. Few times he reacted very aggressively to people that were asking him questions (up to the point of voting on them just because of that). Now he's informed about PR but is not making a claim - seems like a waiting game. 

- ISoc - lurker (for instance I saw him here today, but he left without a single word) not contributing to the town at all.

- Yehom - not sure about him, but I don't trust him since the moment he was piggybacking on me on D3.

 

As I've mentioned SM is most obvious choice, but I'm a afraid she might be a miss and we can't really afford to miss right now. Yehom I'm to unsure to point out as a 100% scum, SBG is most probably scum but it's still a bit risky choice, Death needs to finish the claim he started. ISoc is the one I'm most certain about his scuminess, not only by his actions but also by the fact that I find it unlikely that in this composition he's a town with rest being scum.

[D34THBR1NG3R]

Now he's informed about PR but is not making a claim - seems like a waiting game.

Wasnt on a computer, I posted while you were typing 

[Ali bin Turban]

 

Now he's informed about PR but is not making a claim - seems like a waiting game.

Wasnt on a computer, I posted while you were typing 

 

Yep, you've posted it so that does not matter anymore.

[iSocialism]

AbT, the framer is unlikely, also the likely hood of the events to turn you into a non-helpful are even more unlikely. You say Kevin is town in your book, but you delay taking your vote off of him. I don't think you believe there to be a framer role. I didn't vote for you, because I wanted the day to go on. So now, after thinking about it. let me ask you this, what info do you have?

[Sister Midnight]

I have been out all day, got sick on the way home, might puke, but I skipped dinner, so maybe not. That said, I'll be quite brief. IRL I have been dealing with a lot of shit, I have done a little posting here and there, but you will notice, I am not nearly as active as usual. I understand I may look scummy, but I assure you I'm not scum, just not focused and playing quite badly. I stand by my vote on Ali, because I think he's scum. I waited for explanation of "unhelpful " when the cop came up with that result and based my vote on that, I would hardly call it jumping on the band wagon, . I will attempt to be on more tomorrow, but I can't promise it, that is why I'm not unvoting.

[Ali bin Turban]

AbT, the framer is unlikely, also the likely hood of the events to turn you into a non-helpful are even more unlikely. You say Kevin is town in your book, but you delay taking your vote off of him. I don't think you believe there to be a framer role. I didn't vote for you, because I wanted the day to go on. So now, after thinking about it. let me ask you this, what info do you have?

 

Lol, I didn't realize I still got my vote on KevinH. Why else would I keep it on him? Maybe you have a theory on that? Secondly, please tell us why do you think I don't believe in framer? I thought I made it clear what I believe in. Thirdly "you wanted the day to go on"...that's good. Shame you didn't want to participate in it. And finally, your last question sounds silly...what sort of info are you expecting to hear. I'm sharing all my thoughts.

 

Unvote

[Ali bin Turban]

Objectively speaking my fate is not yet sealed. It was never sealed. So if I were a scum.

 

- Wolfpacks has denounced me - surely he wouldn't be on my team.

- KevinH and SM were the first one to vote on me. Most probably they wouldn't be my scum teammates.

- SBG, ISoc, Death are pressing to lynch me - most probably they wouldn't be my scum teammates.

 

So who's left:

- Rhizo - who would need to be GodFather to be in my team (BTW it's a shame he is not posting anymore)

- Mandarijn - who may be seen as defending me

- Yehom - who actually didn't took a stance and is still sitting on the sidelines

- CoD - who hasn't made it clear what he's going to do. However his RC was totally irrational for the scum to make (scum does not tell everyone that someone was investigating, scum keeps this knowledge to himself and kills that guy at night), so he can't be a scum

 

If I were a scum, Rhizo, Mandarijn and Yehom would have to be my partners.

 

One more thing, I don't think it's an accident that everyone that is calling for my lynch right now are the not-confirmed (still-possible-scums) players.

[Chaplain of death]

My role: You are Professor Lupin, a Hogwarts Tracker.

 

 

Night 1 I tracked KevinH and saw nothing, night 2 i tracked King H (SeeBea) and say nothing, night 3 I tracked Yehom and saw nothing.

 

I know that isnt much to go on but it might somehow prove people innocent and later claims to be liars. 

 

Ali bin Turban: I feel a scum vibe fro him as I find it very unlikely that he is going to say that his "result" was scum and there might have been a framer, just seems pretty fishy and not too believable

KevinH: My results said he didnt visit anyone so i assume he isnt that powerful of a role if he is scum

Chaplain of Death: Kinda just does what everyone else does, however SeaBee said this but maybe scum distancing from other scum late game?

D34THBR1NG3R: Ya know, I'm me. My role and everything is above

SeeBea: Might be the 2nd scum, and if he is I suggest looking hard at CoD too for reason above

Mandarijn: Kinda unlucky and confusing start but it seems to me like he could be some sort of PR which is why he wanted to be switched out quickly (also could be a good role for scum)

Isocialism: Maz was kinda sketchy in the beginning and Isoc straightened that out, kinda leaning on scum here

Rhizoctonia: Came clean in investigation. Could be immune but the town vibe is strong enough with this one.

Sister Midnight: acting wayy too strange not to be scum

 

Wolfpacks: Claims he's a cop, seems believable so far although he had a bit of rockyness in day 2

Yehom: Came up as not doing anything so again I'm gonna say town or unimportant scum (no scum is really unimportant but still)

 

Yup. I'm doing what everyone else does. That's why I role claimed and FORCED real information to be discussed so that the town has a fight chance. I'm sorry but tell me where literally anyone else did that this game? Feels like you are just trying to throw suspicion around, possible scum trying to setup lynch for day 5?

 

 

Objectively speaking my fate is not yet sealed. It was never sealed. So if I were a scum.

 

- Wolfpacks has denounced me - surely he wouldn't be on my team.

- KevinH and SM were the first one to vote on me. Most probably they wouldn't be my scum teammates.

- SBG, ISoc, Death are pressing to lynch me - most probably they wouldn't be my scum teammates.

 

So who's left:

- Rhizo - who would need to be GodFather to be in my team (BTW it's a shame he is not posting anymore)

- Mandarijn - who may be seen as defending me

- Yehom - who actually didn't took a stance and is still sitting on the sidelines

- CoD - who hasn't made it clear what he's going to do. However his RC was totally irrational for the scum to make (scum does not tell everyone that someone was investigating, scum keeps this knowledge to himself and kills that guy at night), so he can't be a scum

 

If I were a scum, Rhizo, Mandarijn and Yehom would have to be my partners.

 

One more thing, I don't think it's an accident that everyone that is calling for my lynch right now are the not-confirmed (still-possible-scums) players.

 

True I haven't made it clear what I'm going to do because I was waiting to hear if there was any more relevant information to be discussed but it seems that there is not. So we can either roll the dice on lynching at "random" (less a few assumed townies), or we can roll the dice on there being a Framer and that they targeted you on night 2. Its going to come down to an educated guess either way. I am leaning the direction of lynching someone else at the moment, in which case I would vote for SM as her forgetting that the "unhelpful" prefix is the scum modifier in these games is quite odd and shes been lurking.

 

Ali bin Turban: Seems very calm and collected despite building pressure, almost suspiciously so. Could just be town trying to keep us from mislynching, or could be scum. Not in the town's best interest in my opinion to lynch because if he is telling the truth we will be very suspicious of wolfpacks tomorrow and that will likely spell the end of the game for the town.

 

KevinH: No real strong reads unfortunately. Going with the flow a bit but not in such a way that I get a scummy vibe.

 

D34THBR1NG3R: Not sure what to make of him. Felt like we were watching DBZ waiting for Goku to show up and save the day on that loooooooooooooooong wait for his role claim only to gain some half baked information that doesn't advance the current discussion. It MIGHT allow us to cut down our suspect list in future days, but won't know until then. Kind of find it odd he says I'm just going with the flow considering I am the one that changed the flow.

 

King Hitler: Seems to be genuinely scum hunting and critically evaluating the information we have and the possibilities of that information. Definitely a more town feel.

 

Mandarijn: Came out hard on day 4 with some evaluation that looked back over the game thus far but didn't seem to take into account the flow of the conversation at the time. He seemed to make some jumps in conclusions based on the outcome, which can be useful in figuring out who the scum are, but I feel like he was trying a bit too hard to find all of the scum based on essentially 2 days worth of votes and conversation, rather than trying to analyze how it all came down and see if he could pinpoint someone.

 

iSoc: Again, seems to be critically evaluating the facts and the possible reasons for said facts. I tend to lean town but I'm unsure.

 

Rhizoctonia: Showed up clean in WP's investigation, seemed to be scum hunting and contributing before but has been gone for the last couple days.

 

Sister Midnight: I believe SM is scum, she has been lurking through most of the game and tried to cause some confusion on the "unhelpful" modifier. She shows up at irregular intervals saying she has been away for one reason or another and then drops a vote.

 

Wolfpacks: At this point with no real other choice I think we have to believe that Wolfpacks is who he says he is, if he is not then I don't think the town can win. Therefore I consider him to be a confirmed townie.

 

Yehom: Has been scum hunting, I get a more townie vibe from him personally but we also seem to come down on the same side of many of the arguments and votes, could be scum latching onto a townie but not the vibe I get. 

 

 

This is why I am so cautious right now. I know that multiple people that I think are on my side are in fact not so I'm questioning everything I read.

[Ali bin Turban]

CoD, I'd gladly vote on SM just 2 days ago (I did vote on her on D3 along SBG and should other joined rather than creating new wagon on KevinH she would have been gone)...but the problem is, everyone wants to vote on her...what's more all of my suspects want to vote on her. We're having the same situation as with Robert and 1ceCream and I'm afraid of the following scenario:

 

- We lynch SM today - she turns out to be town

- Wolfpacks dies at night - he turns out to be standard cop.

- I'm lynched tomorrow - I turn out to be town - and now scum have won the game.

 

Things I see now are

1. 1ceCream (Fred Weasley) a normal Hogwarts Student was knocked out on day 3.
2. Ali bin Turban a normal Hogwarts Student
3. Chaplain of Death - a Hogwarts follower
4. D34THBR1NG3R - a mafia tracker
5. Finster Baby (Neville Longbottom), a normal Hogwarts Student, has been knocked out on night 2.
6. iSocialism - a mafia framer
7. KevinH - a normal Hogwarts Student
8. King Hitler (SBG) - a mafia Goon
9. Lyner (Professor Dumbledore), a Hogwarts 3-Shot Role Cop, has left the feast to deal with the dementors on night 1.
10. Mandarijn - a normal Hogwarts Student
11. Preston (Percy Weasley), an Even-Night Commuter, was ditched by Harry on night 3.
12. Robert2424 (Hagrid), a Hogwarts Bodyguard has left his class on day 2.
13. Rhizoctonia - a normal Hogwarts Student
14. Sister Midnight - a normal Hogwarts Student
15. Wolfpacks - a Hogwarts Cop
16. Yehom - a mafia Goon

So far in TW's games there were always 5 town roles an 2-3 scum roles

In game 1 there was Cop, RoleCop, Watcher, Tracker, Doctor vs Ninja and Godfather

In game 2 there was Cop, JOAT, Doctor, Watcher, Tracker, vs Ninja, RoleCop and Strongman (+ also SK)

In game 3 we've seen Cop, RoleCop, Follower, Bodyguard, Commuter - those are 5 roles. Seeing how TW is flipping roles around I don't expect Tracker to be with town this time. I don't expect any new roles to surface, therefore rest of the town are VT's...but if I'm wrong and some town will claim a role (which i doubt) that will be even a stronger indication that there's no place for a Tracker among town.

 

What's more Death results give us nothing and they're here just to show us that SBG and Yehom are presumably town, because they made no action. This actually I believe it's true. It would not be wise for Death to lie about it - but it also suggest that most probably ISoc is holding second scum role.

[Mandarijn]

So D34th's results are just made up then as it would be stupid to track your fellow scum mates.

[Mandarijn]

Actually I want to see some scum lists from everyone, not just player analysis, but 4 names of who you think are scum and why...

 

I have to agree with Ali's analysis (today, as the night might bring some new info). I would opt for a lynch on Yehom (he's one of my main suspects as well) or iSoc.

My list would thus also be:

Yehom

iSoc

SBG

D34th (this one I'm least sure about)

[Yehom]

Yehom were the ones that were circling around Wolfpacks results, making half hearted comments, afraid to cast the first stone...like they knew what will happen

Is that right? Because I immediately after Wolfpacks results made an analysis on who I thought were town or scum instead 'circling around Wolfpacks results'. Only after I found out that scum had cop roles too did I circle around those results a bit, because there was a possibility that 1) results are made up (if Wolfpacks would be scum) or 2) results are skewed (as Ali himself made clear that he was town even though he came out non-helpful, Framer and what not being in the mix). 

 

 

 

Yehom - who actually didn't took a stance and is still sitting on the sidelines

I don't know whether you're purposely trying to dodge my post or what, but again I'm going to have to correct you on that. I already said, in the post that I had to quote earlier, that I think SM is acting way too dodgy and suspicious, but that I'm willing to hear her part of the argument. This was before everybody started role claiming and after the role claims nothing of significancy from SM and nobody with a PR vouching for her either. So my comment still stands

 

On the scenario that if you were scum and you're saying that I have not made a stance on that, I already said that I'm leaning towards you being town seeing how the previous days have been played out so far. 

 

Either way I don't know how you get the idea that I haven't taken a stance yet. 

[Mandarijn]

And if anyone else has any other info to share, now is the time!

@Yehom: I think you mean this post:

Finally we're playing with something now that Wolfpacks has finally shed some light on this game. Wolfpacks has single handedly taken away doubt for almost half the town now with 4 people being proven as townies. Although i don't know what 'non-helpful' should mean. Does it have to do with being vanilla or having a PR? Even if that were the case, the wording is kind of strange as Kevin and Rhizo were 'normal'. It doesn't get more normal than vanilla does it?

 

That being said the following people have not been completely proven as townies

Chaplain of Death: RC to be a follower, which I want to believe, but he followed Lyner (who was killed N1) and Wolfpacks who has confirmed himself as town. I'd say he's 80/20 town as there is still a possibility that he's scum claiming to be a townie with powers trying to get Wolfpacks lynched D4.

 

D34THBR1NG3R: No read what so ever on this guy as he's pretty inactive. 

 

iSocialism: His predecessor Maz played really poorly (if you even consider what he did playing), iSoc himself so far has been every on/off. Analysis was given last day, but that's about it contribution wise. 

 

King Hitler: Has made some good posts, leaning towards town more

 

Mandarijn: I'm really 50/50 about Manda. His 3 days in game absent was standing out pretty heavily. Want to hear more from him to get a good read. 

 

Sister Midnight: Overall always late to the party it seems. Posts have been nothing new, seems to be side with whatever wagon is popular. Last posts of D3 were very suspect. 

 

I'm leaning on voting for SM, but I'm willing to hear her side of the argument

You say 4 people are proven townies, and give your thoughts on the other players. With the conclusion that you are leaning to vote on SM.

BUT if those 4 are town, that would mean 4/6 of those players are scum, but you stay in the middle on most of them. So you're not saying anything in the end... (Scum tactics 101) Please give us your 4 scum names. (same for all the others)

[Yehom]

And if anyone else has any other info to share, now is the time!

Seeing Ali's list, I think it's safe to say that there aren't any PR left that can provide any additional info. There probably is a Docter of some sort around which is missing from his list (highly doubt that TW would only give us a Bodyguard for protection), but I think this is about it PR's wise. 

 

 

 

You say 4 people are proven townies, and give your thoughts on the other players. With the conclusion that you are leaning to vote on SM. BUT if those 4 are town, that would mean 4/6 of those players are scum, but you stay in the middle on most of them. So you're not saying anything in the end... (Scum tactics 101) Please give us your 4 scum names. (same for all the others)

Maybe if you could actually read my post instead of reading what you want or what you don't want, you'd know that I'm only thinking that SM has the most chance of being scum and that I was pretty in the middle about Death, iSoc and Manda. Everybody else on that list I was leaning towards town (like it said in the post, but again reading is hard sometimes apparently, it's right there). Now with Death RC and tracking me on D3, seeing me do nothing which is true, I'm pretty sure he's not bluffing that because that would be pretty risky as he'd have to bluff 3 results. Therefore Death is most likely town too. SM, iSoc and Manda are my main suspects then. But you already probably knew that and are just looking for more excuses, or a more clear excuse, to fuel your attempt to paint me as scum right?

[Mandarijn]

 

And if anyone else has any other info to share, now is the time!

Seeing Ali's list, I think it's safe to say that there aren't any PR left that can provide any additional info. There probably is a Docter of some sort around which is missing from his list (highly doubt that TW would only give us a Bodyguard for protection), but I think this is about it PR's wise. 

 

 

 

You say 4 people are proven townies, and give your thoughts on the other players. With the conclusion that you are leaning to vote on SM. BUT if those 4 are town, that would mean 4/6 of those players are scum, but you stay in the middle on most of them. So you're not saying anything in the end... (Scum tactics 101) Please give us your 4 scum names. (same for all the others)

Maybe if you could actually read my post instead of reading what you want or what you don't want, you'd know that I'm only thinking that SM has the most chance of being scum and that I was pretty in the middle about Death, iSoc and Manda. Everybody else on that list I was leaning towards town (like it said in the post, but again reading is hard sometimes apparently, it's right there). Now with Death RC and tracking me on D3, seeing me do nothing which is true, I'm pretty sure he's not bluffing that because that would be pretty risky as he'd have to bluff 3 results. Therefore Death is most likely town too. SM, iSoc and Manda are my main suspects then. But you already probably knew that and are just looking for more excuses, or a more clear excuse, to fuel your attempt to paint me as scum right?

 

I read it, but you can't say 4 are confirmed town and then have 3/6 that you have a town feel about as well, because 4/6 have to be scum...

 

You still only name 3 people in your most recent list... Or do you know that there are only 3 scums?

[Yehom]

You still only name 3 people in your most recent list... Or do you know that there are only 3 scums?

Lol, I can only find 3 name that are suspicious at this point in time. Maybe time will reveal another name in the future, but as it stands I think these 3 are the most stand out at the moment. Why would I name a 4th name if I can't name someone that stands out now, just because you think that there are 4 people scum. It would be stupid give out a name purely because you think there are 4 people scum (unless you want me to involve an innocent townie). There could be 5 people scum for all we know. Instead I think you're way too fixated on that number 4. Aren't you the one that is trying to tell something? 

[D34THBR1NG3R]

If this is how the town is going to be, then I genuinely want you guys to vote for me.Vote for me then you'll realize when you've killed another town that "oh, this is kinda not going good for us" this town is making me cringe every step of the way and now I feel like those accusing the most are the ones trying to stir up panic.

 

Vote: Ali Bin Turban

[Mandarijn]

 

You still only name 3 people in your most recent list... Or do you know that there are only 3 scums?

Lol, I can only find 3 name that are suspicious at this point in time. Maybe time will reveal another name in the future, but as it stands I think these 3 are the most stand out at the moment. Why would I name a 4th name if I can't name someone that stands out now, just because you think that there are 4 people scum. It would be stupid give out a name purely because you think there are 4 people scum (unless you want me to involve an innocent townie). There could be 5 people scum for all we know. Instead I think you're way too fixated on that number 4. Aren't you the one that is trying to tell something? 

If you can't find a 4th one, it's pretty obvious that your analysis isn't entirely correct and that you have to review your opinion on at least 1 person... 

 

I'm not saying Ali's analysis is entirely correct (as I feel D34th could still be town), but it's more believable as he has 4 possible scum. Normally you have more possible scum than there are scum and you have to do your best to cut it down to only 4 names...

[Yehom]

If you can't find a 4th one, it's pretty obvious that your analysis isn't entirely correct and that you have to review your opinion on at least 1 person...   

Again why are you so fixated on that number 4? Why are you so sure it's 4? It could be 5, it could be 3. Do you know more than we do?