Preston

@TC: As CD stated, you are basically confirmed town. You no longer need to worry about being suspected for your opinions or accusations - whether people agree or disagree with you, noone will really think you scum for saying it. So if you have any thoughts observations or feelings, please post them - especially since it IS possible you'll be targetted sooner now that your towniness is confirmed, per earlier posts. If you die tonight, any of your unspoken thoughts die with you. @CD: Regarding Nerau, here's a brief analysis/thought-dump: 1) I'm a bit puzzled by why he was chosen as well; he didnt exactly stand out on day 1, and if anything he would have been a scum red herring if left alive since he was also talking against d3mon. There's no benefit I can see that scum gained by choosing him unless they somehow knew beforehand that he had a power role. 1a) While ccabal's idea about day 1 mafia intel is interesting... I just dont think it's likely mole would go that route as it would possibly be REALLY unbalanced. 1b) A day rolecop is possible (one of the scum roles from the first aborted game I played), but that again would not explain why Nerau was investigated. 1c) Scum could have been checking those who didnt roleclaim to see if that hid a role and/or if this game had any vanilla townies. 2) The only real idea I have is that scum didnt go after KevinH because prior to TC's role-use Kevin was the only semi-proven townie; any doctor/protector role on night 1 would have been most likely to protect Kevin, and by targetting him scum would risk having their nightkill negated. 2a) We could STILL have some sort of protective role after TC's claim... but it's possible/probable that role was also used/wasted already. 3) If either KevinH or CaoCao are scum, they cant target themselves. Kevin is obviously seeming very pro-town at present though and there's not enough information to make a judgment about CaoCao, his d3mon vote aside. 4) Nerau voted for ccabal, but again I'm not sure if that information yields us anything at this point because of the whole "Wine In Front Of Me" concept (forget the acronym) - i.e. scum knows that we know that nerau voted for ccabal, so using it to try and cast suspicion on ccabal would not necessarily be effective because we could guess thats what they were trying to do; very chicken/egg analysis, so it feels like we dont gain any information from this. I'm sure there's another dimension or something to this that I'm not seeing, because I cannot see how scum would benefit from this prior to their discovering nerau's role. CD is seemingly stumped too, so unless KevinH has something to add here then I'm not sure how else to interpret their choosing nerau. Anyone else have thoughts on this? Kevin? -Preston

Ah, I did not pick up on that as much on day 1. We still havent SEEN a vanilla townie, but your reasoning makes sense; though of course if you WERE fakeclaiming you'd say exactly this too :-p My mentioning that scenario was more an observation than a question - and scum can either try ya or not at their risk. Either way, thanks for answering. Now just need to figure out where to go from here. -Preston

Not unexpected, but too bad; if you had, we could have ruled out whoever it was as being the one that nightkilled you. Well this is interesting; I hadnt expected TWO inactives. We can hope that one of them was scum - I could see them lying low on day 1 once the discussion turned in a direction they liked, and ending up just not checking the forums for a while. This inactivity doesnt necessarily absolve those two (or their roles, if they're replaced) of scumminess, but it does shift them a bit lower on my list - until further information develops anyway. I have yet to develop a firm opinion on who seems scummy on day 2; all we seem to have gotten so far is negative indications for TC and now these two. We have the vote candidates KevinH lists, but I'm not restricting myself to them; it's quite possible actual scum stayed quiet during the debate to avoid exposure today. The only other datapoint aside from everyone's day 1 actions seems to be CD's vanilla townie roleclaim versus the potential for a game like last one with no vanilla townies. I do not yet consider this suspicious in itself; could also be just hiding/preserving a good role and attempting to be a less-interesting nightkill target if he is in fact fakeclaiming vanilla town. For now, I'm interested in seeing what ultimately happens with the replacements. -Preston

Did you use your roleblock ability on night 1, and if so on whom? -Preston

To preempt the next acronym question: LYLO = LYnch or LOse - a day when if down fails to lynch a scum then they will have lost. Think of it as 'game point'. And to expand the "known townies" explanation: It's not just that known townies are targets highly unlikely to be lynched (reducing our chance of error and reducing the number of potential scum left on the field), it's also that their votes can be treated as safely non-scum; i.e. they will not knowingly have voted for town or avoided voting for scum. This doesnt mean they cant be WRONG... but it does mean that they are unlikely to be picking on one townie after another as scum might. TC's being the revival doctor means that we have now seen two of the three 'surviving' roles from the past round, and suggests the third may also be present. We've now seen Security Guard, one-shot roleblocker, and revival doc. KevinH says he has a one-shot role. That's four roles there. If we assume the third survivor (vote-limited/cowardly lifeguard) from last round is ALSO present, that's five roles. This increases my belief that we may be in another no-simple-townie game. It would be a godsend(molesend?) if nerau can actually identify who killed him, however I'm not sure what nightkill victims see - last game I survived and was never killed However - given that mole was saying town last game had been a little overpowered, I suspect that all nerau will know is who (if anyone) he targetted with his roleblock ability. THAT may be semi-useful, as it could be confirmed that at minimum that person didn't perform the nightkill. Anyway we'll have to see what nerau has to say. Mole may need to prod nerau back to this thread if he's stopped checking it though; perhaps he got a PM saying he'd been revived. I get the feeling the reviver and the security guard were meant to be paired - i.e. if he got killed, he could be revived to still talk. I wish Id known TC had this ability on day 1, that might have changed the scenario for testing d3mon drastically! But unless we have another info-gathering role I dont see this saving much else, so it's probably for the best that TC used it now to prove his towniness - at minimum it removes one target from the list to consider, and it makes the start of this day interesting! -Preston

Ouch. I wish there had been more time on day 1; I suggested an extension but I guess it never officially happened. Would've been nice if the topic hadnt closed before I got home from work though You were indeed proven right Kevin, and the cues I took for d3mon being scum were just bad playing on d3mon's part. I guess my analysis wasnt so good after all... I also notice we've lost two power roles in a row just like last game - either scum have some uncanny luck (well, combined with our bad choice on day 1), or this may be another game with few-to-no vanilla townies. I'm not really in a position to blame you CD - until the end when I started doubting based on Kevin's posts and d3mon's finally being cooperative, I was quite convinced that d3mon was playing really anti-town - inconsistent with the role he claimed. Since basically everyone bandwagoned onto d3mon, it's going to be hard to pick real scum out of the mass. We cant even limit ourselves to those who actually VOTED - plenty of people were voicing support for the lynch even if they didnt have a vote on him at the end. Sadly, I'm also on that list... I was quite fooled as well. So for right now I have no idea how to proceed. I'll look at this more tomorrow. -Preston PS: Wrote this while waiting for Portal 2 to decrypt! Heh, I cant play it too long tonight, but ive GOT to see it; they built up the anticipation crazily. Mega Catch-Up VOTE COUNT Not Voting (9): CaoCao, AKCPLUTO, Preston, ccabal86, KevinH, CanucksDynasty, Electric Mango, reign of terror, TerrorChrist

That's the same line of thinking I've expressed CD. However I am giving him one last chance to do so on this train of thought: he somehow did not understand what we meant by 'paraphrase'. His response/accusation to me earlier acted like he thought he had done exactly what we asked for, and he is still being lynched. It's a little bit of a stretch, but if he's genuinely new we have to ensure there is NO miscommunication here. Quoting my own previous post: If d3mon again refuses to provide a paraphrase or respond to my other question at THIS stage in the game, I'll set my vote back on him and be virtually certain that he is scum. -Preston

This has been a surprisingly active day 1. I wouldnt be surprised if mole ended up extending it upon request. This is a serious discussion that NEEDS to happen, and it should happen now. We also need to hear from narsis and more from nerau, and if herodez is going to be replaced then lets get his replacement in here. The absolute WORST would be if d3mon is town and all the scum are largely sitting silent right now... letting us do this to ourselves and laughing about it. Unvote This should have been at the end of my huge post, after the questions; no point in letting this day end with the questions unanswered. @d3mon: when you check into the thread read the questions I asked you at the end of my giant post and respond to them. @Kevin: I'll take a look at your plan post again tomorrow; I've spent too much time examining the subject today. Short version: It's not only a question of "would the plan clear/condemn d3mon and possibly save our security guard", but rather a question of "would the plan result in fewer townie deaths/more scum deaths." I think that if d3mon gives us exactly what his claimed guard role can and cannot do, that will give us more to work with/test. -Preston

The only real given in my stats is that you have roleclaimed security guard while under suspicion. I present the scenarios as I saw them for how things could turn out tomorrow. For one, your odds dont add up to 100%. If you include one side of a scenario, you need to include the other side otherwise things become imbalanced and the values dont make sense. The main difference between our lists is that you add the 1/8 odds-you-are-security-guard. I assumed that if you were town, then you were telling the truth - and since what town would SEE doesnt change, then it doesnt make much difference. If you include that 1/8, you also need to include the 7/8 opposite case. For example: 2a) Assuming d3mon is town and the security guard who forces a town lynch: 8/11 * 1/8 * 2/3 = 6.06% 2b) Assuming d3mon is town and not the security guard, but who forces a town lynch: 8/11 * 7/8 * 2/3 = 42.4% I combined those largely because in either case town would see you suggesting a lynch target and then a townie dying, and because frankly if you're townie and NOT telling the truth at this stage then a counter-claim on you on day 2 would probably also result in your lynch. If you are only listing yourself as 1/8 likely to be security guard, does that mean that we should NOT assume you are telling the truth? Since much of this day has turned into an examination of you, it's no surprise that many of my posts have been responses/analysis of your words and counter-accusations. People respond more to someone questioning their analysis; you'll note I have responded to KevinH rather at length as well. @1 & @2: This has been said before, but I'll repeat it: the setting/intent of one's roleclaim and the role they claim both affect how easily that claim is believed. Last game we ended up pursuing and lynching EM, insomniac, because his roleclaim happened under suspicion - he threw it out there in an attempt to clear his name. Roleclaims in defense are always suspect, especially when they claim big targets. @3: Last game all townies last town had 'power roles' - i.e. roles of SOME kind. This does not mean they were all 'very powerful'. Several of the roles were intended to actually hamper the security guard - one person who did nothing but present a false positive by moving every night (insomniac), a role that also moved every night but could find info if scum used their janitor (curious child) and an infinite-use pro-town role that would also show up (friendly neighbor). @4: The key word has been "paraphrase". You gave just the role name 'Security Guard' with nothing else. By "paraphrase" we were asking you to basically take your role PM and run it through a thesaurus and give us the whole thing with synonyms that didnt destroy the meaning. We were looking for the details about how your role was implemented THIS game and how realistic/mole-like your PM sounded. We would then be able to pick apart your role PM for consistency, believability, etc. We asked you for the paraphrase several times; I held off voting until you returned largely because I was waiting for you to do so. The fact that you refused to ever provide that detail - all you did was point to the LAST game's role PM - increased our belief that you do not HAVE a security guard role PM from THIS game to paraphrase. Narsis and Herodez need to respond, yes. I am interested in what Narsis thought of you, since you were on his list from very early on. If you ARE town, then you've done a very good job of making a spectacle of yourself and not giving people defending you (largely KevinH) much of anything to work with. I know you're new. I know it's possible that you are town and didnt realize that by mentioning the "past game survivor" bit you were letting slip you had a role. If you'd been cooperative and provided the paraphrase detail when most of the town asked for it instead of first saying you won't roleclaim then turning around and roleclaiming later, your claim would have been easier to believe. Not all of this game is hard mod-confirmed fact; behavior and the way people act when challenged is key. It's been difficult to explain your behavior if you are truly pro-town with such an important role. If you're truly the security guard and just played badly, then there's not much else to say; we made a mistake. I hope this isn't the case. The only thing currently making me waver at all is that if you're new it's possible you really HAVE played this badly. Though I still have trouble understanding why you'd give up and take death without a roleclaim if you really ARE the security guard... that makes no sense at all. Explain why you would just give up and die without a fight if you actually are the security guard. I wish this would work KevinH. Unfortunately your plan does not provide ANY means to identify who is and isnt scum - everyone that d3mon lists will be forced to roleclaim, and everyone will of course claim some sort of role. At least one will be lying, the scum who nightkilled someone - but EVERYONE will be suspect, and many normal townies would be outed regardless of whether d3mon is scum or not. I know this is how security guard works, but when scum could manipulating this list it's a dangerous power to give them; who do THEY want to see roleclaim? Still. Is there SOME way we can make this work? Part of the problem with discussing tomorrow's test NOW is that it tells scum everything we're thinking; its impossible to "catch" them, so it has to instead be some kind of logic trap. For this test, If d3mon is scum his list cannot have real movement information, and hence will be a list of random targets. If d3mon is town but fakeclaiming, his list cannot have real movement information - or alternately he wouldn't provide a list. If d3mon is town and security guard, his list will have real movement information. If d3mon is not security guard, there MAY be a real cop roleclaim on day 2. I say 'may' because we dont necessarily have a 'movement-detector' cop: we could have one of the types that is able to examine one person per night. The danger is that if that's the kind of cop we have and on night 1 he finds NOTHING, he probably wont roleclaim - and d3mon's list will go unchallenged. If d3mon is not security guard and a real cop roleclaims on day 2, d3mon will most likely be lynched. This includes if he is town and fakeclaiming to either draw scum nightkill or avoid death. If d3mon's list is unchallenged, then all those named will be forced to roleclaim. If d3mon is scum and names someone that didnt move/use a role, that person will say it wasnt them and possibly be forced to do a full roleclaim on day 2 - more likely they'll claim vanilla townie. They will be suspect because they will appear to be scum trying to avoid getting caught. If d3mon is scum and doesnt name someone who moved, that person can challenge the list - but that person will also be suspect for trying to discredit d3mon. If d3mon is security guard and names someone that moved, that person can say "yes that was me" and do a full roleclaim. If that was a one-use role, then there's no further extra danger. If that was a multi-use role then that person is now outed and is a target night 2 onward. Anyone outed in this manner is suspect because this is also how scum would show up: they would fakeclaim and try to get away with it. If d3mon is security guard and someone claims they moved and were not shown, or named and did not move, then those people would be suspect for trying to discredit d3mon - but it would also put d3mon's list (and whoever had said 'yes that was me') in question. If d3mon is scum and names two townies and two scum as his findings, his fellow scum can collaborate with him and fakeclaim/verify his results to place additional suspicion on those who would probably say "no wait, that wasnt me" - especially if d3mon gets lucky and one of the two townies named really DID move. People d3mon did NOT name that moved would be able to speak up and try to discredit him, but it's possible that such people would be in the minority and hence look suspicious themselves. If d3mon is security guard and a false-positive townie is lynched based on his information, then d3mon will still look suspect - but a less so if a lot of people are sticking up for him by saying he verified their night moves. If fewer people use their roles tonight then it will be harder to verify him, but it reduces chances of a false positive - less for a scum to hide in. If more people use their roles tonight then it will be easier to verify him, but who is actually scum will be lost in the mass and a false-positive will be very likely; we'll have essentially destroyed the security guard's usefulness. At this point I've sat here FAR too long looking back over posts and trying to work out the logic of how a test could work, and the preview shows me an ungodly long post so I'm going to stop now. d3m0n- You've seriously acted like scum in my eyes thus far. I believe anyone who suspects you is entirely justified in doing so, but it IS possible that you've just played this badly due to being new. If you are town, then answer what you meant by your post where you said you would take being lynched with no roleclaim, if you are the security guard. I also will ask you one last time to provide a PARAPHRASE of your role pm. You have NOT provided this so far. Respond to both of those things quickly and we'll see where it goes. KevinH- I'm having trouble seeing how testing d3mon can work without forcing townie roleclaims, allowing scum co-conspirators to skew the process, or ruining the security guard's effectiveness through too many false-positive townie actions. If you can lay out a better plan that addresses these issues I /might/ be persuaded to go along with it, but per my above analysis I seriously cannot think of a way to test d3mon that would not end with the town at a major disadvantage... and it's VERY hard for me to ignore d3mon's behavior to this point. -Preston

@CD: I've been quite verbose on my thoughts to this point, but I'm going to respond to KevinH. Also, my thoughts on d3mon's posts are that if he was going to say "my role is exactly as presented in the past game's role PM, linked here" he could have said that far earlier and far more clearly and not seemed half as suspicious for being so evasive. Cut/paste fail here?I've put a lot of thought into all of my analysis thus far... and it kinda irks me to see it all being shrugged off as 'weak'. I'd invite you to offer specific critique so that I could address what you thought was weak, but when you did that you only attacked the 'he could be scum' portion of my scenarios instead of considering them both at the same time. Dont vote unless you're prepared to stand behind it. You already had a very long post attacking CD, and backing off here is the opposite of that. Day 1 lynch is for voting records, vote for real. I am prepared to stand behind my vote, and I've been very vocal about my thought process to date. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and you can type your all-caps told you so - but despite the numbers I feel he has a better-than-even chance of being scum due to his behavior. I agree that d3mon's initial rapidfire accusations and pressing the attack on TC for a flavour comment was only mildly suspicious - that I was leaning towards an inactive instead speaks to how mild it was at the time - but it made him stand out some. It was only when d3mon became defensive and dropped a role hint that he tipped his hand and changed the day's game into being all about him. Everyone 'pressuring' him was pushing for information - basically saying that since he'd started to roleclaim he had to finish it - and his very evasiveness made him all the more suspicious. When he finally roleclaimed, his possibly being the security guard was huge - very much a double-or-nothing, and we're screwed if he dies and he really IS our cop. But at one point he said he'd give up and die without a roleclaim - to me that is the biggest inconsistency of all if he actually is the security guard, as it treats his role/life/death as not being that relevant when it very much SHOULD be: There's one more facet to all this that I think bears mentioning - the whole concept that there may be roles in this game from the past game originated from d3mon when he said that he was a survivor role to defend himself. When he claimed, he claimed a verbatim role from the previous game. It's a neat way of sidestepping the usual question of "what kind of fake roles would fit into the flavor of this new game" - say you're someone from the previous game. You don't have to be creative and it's already given that role is plausible because it DID exist, so people cant attack whether or not your role concept fits the game or other forms of consistency. You could be lying, but you're saying it BEFORE suspicion has actively fallen upon you so you're more likely to be believed at present. Per my above, we cant say that security guard ISNT possible - it's an established part of this game series' history; we just dont know if mole decided to carry over the survivors or not. At the end of the previous game, mole expressed thoughts that the town's advantages had not been sufficiently balanced by its disadvantages. I'll link his post here instead of quoting it; it's not a PM, but either way this is safer rulewise http://www.iron-command.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=25127&view=findpost&p=386527 I would not be surprised to see vanilla townies in this game per CD's claim, nor would I be surprised to see 'weak' roles per your claim. I do not dispute that a security guard is possible, but I have a hard time believing that d3mon would have that role due to how easily he was willing to give it up today. Overall I am rethinking my position about KevinH having pro-town vibes due to the earlier bandwagon on him. I understand no-lynch and I understand being cautious, but I do have difficulty seeing how you can just flat-out ignore the way d3mon has behaved. I also dont see how you can ignore the idea that letting a suspected scum both live and choose our day 2 lynch candidates would be bad for the town. If you respect numbers, go back and reread my post with scenarios for testing d3mon's roleclaim. To paraphrase: To test d3mon we would have to go with ONE of his suggested lynch targets on day 2. 1) If he's scum, it will be a townie that dies. 2) if he's town AND security guard and gets a list with as many false positives as CD did last game (3 town and 1 scum moved on night 1), then he would have a 75% chance of falsely picking a townie. This would look the same as if he was scum. 3) If he's town AND security guard AND gets a lucky correct-guess scum lynch out of his movement list, THEN he would be confirmed town. If he is town and fakeclaiming - even to try and draw scum nightkill - then its basically scenario 2 with the whole rest of the town as false positives since he cannot produce a valid list. I'll be generous and assume the same 2:1 false positives CD got on day 2 last game (kevin & EM town, kaziocore scum) instead of the 3:1 he SHOULD have gotten if ccabal was included. In terms of numbers: Odds of scenario 1 = 3/11 (chance of d3mon being mafia) = 27.3% Odds of scenario 2 = 8/11(assume town/guard if not mafia) * 2/3 (chance of town lynch @ 2:1 false positive rate) = 16/33 = 48.5% Odds of scenario 3 = 8/11(assume town/guard if not mafia) * 1/3 (chance of scum lynch @ 2:1 false positive rate) = 8/33 = 24.2% Both scenarios 1 and 2 are highly detrimental to town, resulting in 3 townie deaths. Following day 2 townie lynch on both (1) and (2) we would likely lynch d3mon for 'proving' scum, and in case (2) this would largely finish the game for town. 27.3% + 48.5% = 75.8% chance of town basically losing IF we let d3mon live and test him 24.2% chance of d3mon proving true and town benefitting. The choice seems pretty clear to me. Vote: d3mon -Preston

Mod confirmed prod on Herodez, so that's underway. Nerau has a brief post on the previous page: But otherwise... where is Narsis? I /still/ want to hear that list's explanation. -Preston

Based on the points you have chosen to respond to, I think you missed the point of my dividing my analysis into two separate sections: one that assumes d3mon is scum, and one that assumes d3mon is town. Some of your responses show up in my 'if he's town' section. Either way, I'll respond to them here: @1: While possible, that would require him be left alive today to be their bait at night. Per my post, leaving him alive in any form with his behavior suggesting scum THIS strongly is extremely risky. @2: Yes every role is equally likely - however having THIS specific role when people were saying he'd need a major one to survive reduces the field. My point could have been paraphrased as saying: "It's very convenient for him to have this important role when everyone was saying he would have to have a major role to be potentially worth keeping alive" @3: I agree it would have been better if he never roleclaimed with this role. My point here is that once he STARTED his claim and was facing suspicion, he could/should have claimed SOONER instead of us having to drag it out of him. The manner of his eventual claim has done him no favors. Also note that under my "If he's town" list, I addressed your statement; that if he actually IS security guard, it would explain some of his reluctance to roleclaim. Though I still have difficulty understanding why he would then choose death over claiming if he had THIS important of a role. @4: Generally speaking, any non-scum lynch on day 1 (including no-lynch) lets some scum use their role. My earlier post specifically dealt with evaluating scenarios for testing d3mon, and had to acknowledge in pros/cons that if he IS scum - possibly scum with a role - letting him get to night 1 for the test would mean letting him use that role. The day listings were again evaluating what could happen if we no-lynched to test d3mon on day 2. The scenarios all assumed a no-lynch on day 1 in order for the test to occur, and thusly started their counting with nightkill 1. Your list here is a valid scenario if d3mon is town AND we lynch him today - but it also assumes that we get the day 2 lynch wrong. I listed scenarios with us failing the day 2 lynch as possible casualties of testing d3mon, because d3mon would be picking our pool of targets while under suspicion - either via the guard role or via scum picking people. I included false positives (townies indicated by guard as being possible scum because they moved) as a scenario because the security guard role from last game produced false positives: EM and Kevin showed up moving and ccabal SHOULD have shown up but didnt due to mod error. The security guard role is likely to see as many town as scum move, if not more: 3:1 if you want to base it off of what CD should have seen night 1. It cannot be ignored as a scenario. If we lynch a false positive while testing d3mon, we'd be likely to then lynch d3mon for 'proving' wrong - and if d3mon was actually town, that would be ANOTHER town lynch and probably game over. The point is that if a townie is lynched in response to letting d3mon pick the day 2 lynch candidates, we will still be stuck on day 3 debating if he is scum or not - is he really a guard with real results and the townie was a false positive, or is he scum that just tricked us and is going to give us another bad target? You have a consistent preference for no-lynch, and that's an understandable position on day 1 - there is indeed no solid information to be had. Day 1 of last game we didnt really have anyone stand out as likely scum based on their actions; this time we do. You have repeated that that he has 3/11 odds of being scum. That is the literal truth, but it assumes no other information - the raw numbers do not take his behavior into account. If you have four closed boxes containing three dogs and a cat and one of the boxes meows - that box is still 1/4 likely to contain the cat, but which would you pick? -Preston

The problem is that any 'give d3mon a chance to prove himself' scenario involves basically giving scum the game if we're wrong - and he's acting anti-townie enough that at this point I'd give better than even odds he's scum. Per my earlier post, any attempt at proving d3mon town would involve following at least one of his lynch targets. If he's scum, weve not only let him live (and possibly use an ability), but use our day 2 lynch as an extra kill that scum determines. Night kill 1, day lynch 2, night kill 2 - giving scum control of 3 kills out of an 11 person game would bring us to lynch-or-lose. We might lynch d3mon himself at that point and buy some breathing room, BUT d3mon would probably claim he's town... see below. Assuming that d3mon is town, if his list produces a false positive on the first attempt (like CD going after EM last game, though that wasnt his first target), then wed STILL lose 3 people in a row: night kill 1, day lynch 2, night kill 2. Only at that point we'd be CONVINCED that d3mon was scum, lynch him... and it's game over. And if d3mon was scum, he'd claim he WAS town and that his lynch would end the game - so on day 3 we'd STILL be debating if d3mon is scum or not. IF d3mon is town AND really security guard AND produces a scum target on his FIRST attempt... then and only then would town come out ahead by testing him. But thats only one scenario out of three, and a very unlikely one at that. So in brief: I cant see a way to test d3mon without basically giving scum the game. -Preston

I'm going to hold to my earlier statement and unvote pending analysis of this roleclaim... it seems like EM/CD have already gotten started, but with THIS role being claimed... damn Unvote Okay, analysis: d3mon could be scum with a bold claim, he could be town with a fake claim to try and stay alive, or he could be town with a real claim. For sake of sanity I'm going to ignore the townie/fake role case: he already had a post about preferring death to roleclaim, and to change that around to a lie I feel is less likely. Plus if he's town, at this point lying would be anti-town; Im HOPING he wouldnt make that mistake! d3mon as scum 1) This roleclaim has no detail on it. He could have taken the name from peoples' posts and/or the previous game thread. 2) It's a major role that would cripple the town if lost, so it's designed to try and make people not lynch him. 1/11 odds of him actually HAVING this role. 3) In all of our analysis we've basically said that he'd probably need to claim a major role to be potentially kept alive - this qualifies. 4) Per CD's post the real cop can't counterclaim without exposing themselves - and no I would NOT suggest that they do so since we dont know if we have a protective role or not. 5) For supposedly having security guard, he waited a LONG time to actually say it - more importantly he said he would choose death on turn 1 with no roleclaim. If youre the security guard, WHY would you do that?? 6) That "have fun discussing if my claim is true" makes me wonder if he's messing with us. d3mon as town 1) His earlier reference to "survivor from previous game" is consistent with him being security guard if true 2) His having this role would somewhat explain his increased reluctance to roleclaim. 3) Claiming security guard is risky because it risks counterclaim from any other investigative role/cop. We may not have a cop this game that EXACTLY matches the cop from last game, but the presence of any other role would almost certainly expose this as a false claim. Granted the cop cant counterclaim for fear of exposing themselves, but it's still a risky thing for scum to pull. Odds of d3mon having THIS ability are slim, but it IS possible. The obvious question is can this ability be tested in any meaningful way. IF we let d3mon live, that mean he has to at minimum have night 1 to use this ability; he would present results on day 2. Scum would very probably try to kill him (if he's town), and for the sake of the test our protective doc (if any) would have to TRY and protect d3mon. Ironically this is the scenario where the doc from last game would have been useful; let d3mon die, and if he WAS the guard then revive him to report results. The problems with this scenario: 1) If d3mon is scum with a role fighting to stay alive, we're letting him use that role instead of preventing it. 2) We dont know if we have a doc. If we DO, then we're forcing him to protect a specific target, which means scum would be free to target ANYONE else; probably CD or some other veteran whose absence would hurt the town. 3) If d3mon's security guard follows the profile from last game, then the report may contain false positives; i.e. lynching a townie based on his info wouldn't completely disprove his role. Only a scum lynch resulting from his info would even remotely prove it, and even then it could be a sacrifice to fake-prove him town. 4) Based on the above, we'd be forced into letting a potential scum dictate a pool of candidates for our day 2 lynch. When a cop roleclaims unprompted with results to report, the fact that they did not HAVE to roleclaim contributes to their potential trustworthiness - which is later proven/disproven by the accuracy of their named targets, or alternately after they die. Unless d3mon has some kind of a day cop role, there is no possible way he could already have results - and if he DID he would have said so already and made day 1 a LOT easier (which why I dont think mole would make such a role). With this degree of suspicion already on him, I have difficulty seeing a valid way to test d3mon's security guard claim that doesnt screw over the town. My gut reaction is that we cannot test this without exposing the town to crazy levels of potential harm, which is horrible because of how severe the damage will be if this role is real. A nice choice for your fake claim, if scum; but you failed to follow through by providing detail/paraphrasing your role as we'd previously asked you to do. I still want to see d3mon give us specifics about what his claimed role provides; limits, etc. If he dies and is security guard after all, knowing what he WOULD have been able to provide may give us context to understand the rest of this game (i.e. last game the mechanic seemed to be 'movement' and lots of one-shot roles - hence someone claiming insomniac/moving made sense). I'm willing to wait the day until d3mon returns to get this answer, but I'm fairly sure he's still going to get my vote after that. Ive already seen CD/EM's initial responses, but I'd like peoples' thoughts on this - having our cop potentially hang in the balance is huge. -Preston

Absent further information, d3mon has my vote. (I'm assuming you asked me this since it was directly after my post) I'm not going to type up another long post on the subject, so I'll be brief: If you had never referenced yourself as having a role in the manner you did, then yes it would not be in the town's interest for you to roleclaim. If you are actually town and we are about to lynch you by mistake, then you should be giving us every bit of honest information you have. Even if you die, your towniness being proven after your death would posthumously verify everything you said, and we would be able to treat that information as fact on future days. By not giving the town information you are saying that either you HAVE no such information (i.e. you're scum), or that you otherwise dont care if we learn nothing from your death. Based on your latest behavior I am increasingly thinking it's the former; last game when Tactical Evil Dan (Mafia Godfather) was about to be lynched his arguments devolved into "why me/theres nothing I can do" as well. If you are choosing lynch on day 1, so be it: Vote: d3mon If you change your mind and try to roleclaim I will unvote pending analysis of your statement. Otherwise, you can have the result you wished for. -Preston

I made this same point earlier about the double-edged nature of role claiming, particularly how he could try to be a lightning rod for scum's night kill - though you've added some in terms of how his lying or not would fit into the picture. All of this assumes he's town stuck in a bad position due to earlier playing; if he's simply scum trying to avoid a lynch then of course any role he claims or doesnt claim will be a lie. I'll respond to your points first, then address CD's statement about your defending d3mon. If he doesn't roleclaim at all (though nearly everyone else in this thread appears to agree it's become necessary), he's lynched because there's no new information to get him off the hook. If he lies and claims a weak role or no role, especially one we couldnt test in some form in later days - odds are good we'll end up lynching him anyway, since that would be more of a scum tactic; it's far riskier for scum to claim a big role that someone else may have and be able to counterclaim on than a small one that is less likely to be repeated. But as you said he would have to stick with his lie and any future roleclaim would be even more suspect - he would probably end up lynched later for contradicting himself. If he lies and claims a major role that would indeed force us to consider if we wanted to preserve him on the chance of his telling the truth - and he might draw the scum nightkill. BUT he could easily also end up repeating an existing role per above... and while the person who actually has his actual role might not counterclaim immediately, they'd push for a vote against him and possibly end today with the lynch anyway. If he tells the truth, then our reaction will be the same above based on what his role actually is or isnt - if he tells the truth about a major role we'll be forced to think one way, where the truth about a minor role will not benefit him as much. However when basing a claim off his actual role PM he would have the advantage of having more detailed information to defend himself with (paraphrased of course) - more that we could cross-examine for consistency. Truth would also mean less chance of a counter claim coming forward now or later, and if we do end up lynching him anyway then we would know exactly what his role WAS instead of just a name - consider if the 'curious child' last game had been lynched without first having roleclaimed, the general reaction would be "wtf is this?". So that wraps it up for d3mon's options. Per my earlier post d3mon, with enough suspicion focused on you anything you say truthful or not will be suspect. There is no guarantee that a full roleclaim will make people NOT lynch you, because we are well aware that you could be scum trying to avoid a day1 lynch so you can use your role at night. The important bit is that if you DON'T roleclaim, then your lynch is basically assured - in which case people are going to find out about your role anyway. More information is the only thing that COULD save you (absent someone else slipping up and becoming a new target), and it's up to you to decide to try or not. This is a screwed up situation to deal with roleclaims so early, but at this point d3mon has become suspicious enough with his actions and hinted role that I believe that a full roleclaim is necessary. However I can understand KevinH balking at the idea; I was hesitant writing up my earlier analysis because I wasnt sure at the time if it really was or wasnt in town's interest, and it's a strange thing to be ASKING someone to roleclaim. All the responses Ive seen thus far though have supported my original theory that at this point it's necessary. So far I would not call KevinH's analysis of d3mon excessive or overt defense; his analysis has mostly followed the same lines I've been expressing. We cannot ignore the chance d3mon could be town instead of scum, and a devils' advocate is needed to say that in the face of everyone else thinking someone else (though you nearly lynched me for that last game! ) So then: after all the analysis that's been done, my final thought is that yes d3mon should roleclaim now. That makes a total of 5 (Preston, CD, EM, Cao Cao, and ccabal) who have said a full roleclaim is necessary for us to decide what to do next. KevinH is voting no-roleclaim. d3mon cant vote for himself, TerrorChrist is asking questions but not yet stating a position and Narsis/Nerau/Herodez are inactive/not posting. It's up to you now d3mon. Remember to PARAPHRASE your role PM; do NOT copy/paste it. Including the verbatim name of your role is/should be safe though. -Preston

Mole revealed after the game that the curious kid's investigation ability corresponded to the janitor role the mafia had that game. If the mafia used their janitor to hide info about their night kill victim, the child would then have a chance of discovering the body/information in some form. Specific % chance to discover was never released, but since the janitor role was never used the curious child never discovered anything. -Preston VOTE COUNT KevinH (2): Narsis, Herodez ccabal86 (2): Nerau, Electric Mango TerrorChrist (2): CaoCao, d3mon d3mon (2): ccabal86, CanucksDynasty Electric Mango (1): TerrorChrist No Lynch (1): KevinH Not Voting (1): Preston With 11 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.

A vote for no-roleclaim. I can see the point you're making about how we have no means to verify your claim either, but the difference to me is in the context of d3mon's claim; his was made while trying to claim innocence with his name very likely to be the day's lynch. A vote for roleclaim. A vote for roleclaim. Nice point about role detail information might die with him if he's lynched without claiming. However, we cannot assume that we have a 'protection' style doctor - remember that last game the only 'doc' the town had was a one-day revive, and it didn't restore role powers - just let them vote and talk. Therefore even if d3mon claims a role and someone else actually has it - especially if it's a strong one - I would NOT recommend their claiming it to finish d3mon, ESPECIALLY not on day 1! They can, however, vote for d3mon and be confident about doing so. While true that a mafia counterclaim could be used to finish off d3mon today if he actually has a town role, when lynched we would all see that d3mon really was the role he claimed to be - and we would have an all-but-certain scum target to lynch on day 2. Fake-roleclaiming is risky; it ultimately catches up with you. Good question to ask though! So thus far we have two votes for roleclaim and one for no-roleclaim. Narsis, what say you? -Preston

This is definitely an interesting development; a day 1 roleclaim REALLY doesnt help the town - but you've already started it d3mon, so now we need to figure out how to proceed. Options for d3mon's status are as follows: 1) d3mon is scum trying to avoid being our first lynch by roleclaiming 2) d3mon is town with a power role, playing poorly and making everyone suspicious 3) d3mon is town with no power role, mistaking his townie PM for having a role or not intending to roleclaim when he referenced his role PM. Since he has brought up the concept of roles from the last game, option 3 is somewhat unlikely; that is VERY specific information, and likely to be town if true. Now with that said - with herodez potentially being replaced, I am having trouble finding a different target for our day 1 test. So far you've behaved much like scum would, and your awkward/hinted-without-detail roleclaim is now a double-or-nothing mark against you. We don't know how many 'useful' town roles there are in this game - hence we run the risk of eliminating someone valuable if we mis-lynch here, particularly given the past game's survivors. We are therefore forced to at least CONSIDER that you might be telling the truth. Here comes the devil's advocate hat again... *dusts it off from last game* The problem is that even if we give you the benefit of the doubt and decide NOT to lynch you now d3mon, you have painted a giant target on your own back for scum to take you out and remove a town role. If we lynch someone else, scum may well choose to target you tonight on the good chance that you are a town role. If town has a doctor role (maybe pharmacist or something?) they could protect you tonight and you MIGHT stand a chance - but then, mafia would know you were being protected and not target you, plus be free to target anyone ELSE... so unless you have some awesome role, that'd be a waste of the doctor's role to try and protect you (assuming we have one in the first place.) As it currently stands, it looks like you are one step away from the chopping block (what's the current votecount?). Right now your usefulness to the town is either a day 1 lynch or a potential night 1 sacrifice/lightning rod to tempt scum's nightkill - possibly away from more valuable roles. If you are lynched now, scum will have no special information for a night 1 target - OR we'll have reduced scum's membership by one. Normally a roleclaim THIS early would not help the town at all - but since you've already started to do so and are trying to avert your own lynch, you have the option to finish your roleclaim and name/describe your role in an attempt to convince us that you are worth not lynching on the chance you're telling the truth. If you do so (and you're actually town), make sure to paraphrase/summarize your role instead of copy/pasting it; straight copy/pastes from mole's PMs will get you modkilled and there's no sense dying to a technicality. There is also no guarantee that roleclaiming will change peoples' minds - you are correct in that anything you say right now will be suspect, since you have done a good job so far of acting suspicious. Frankly, since the other mafia could craft for you a very nice-sounding fake role if you actually are scum, I'm not sure WHAT you could say that would change everyone's opinion right now. That said, roleclaiming may still not be the best thing for you to do - this is a REALLY wierd situation where we need more information and are being forced to make more complex decisions than I believe usually happen on day 1. At this point a decent role is probably the only thing that could make people reconsider, but if you actually are town that will be horrible for us because you'd be exposed and scum might target you per above. And if you are scum, then you KNOW you would need a decent role to get people to possibly reconsider - it's kindof a catch-22. @Kevin/CD/EM/Narsis, can I get your thoughts on this - does the potential value of d3mon doing a full roleclaim to help with this decision (since he's already said something) outweigh the damage to the town if we decide not to lynch him and he's actually town? Absent more information or analysis I am going to vote for d3mon, but I want to hear responses and Narsis's list (feel better!) before I cast my vote. -Preston

In that case replacement IS possible then - that changes the picture, there's less reason to vote for herodez now. I had been thinking that there were no replacements available this game, and if herodez got modkilled it would be giving scum a free advantage - by lynching someone already inactive we'd avoid the double jeopardy. I am still inclined to think KevinH town due to his being bandwagoned that early, hence his vote would have a greater chance of not being cast as anti-town... but now I'm leaning more towards lynching d3mon today. We're almost putting too much thought into this day 1 lynch, but it's giving us a lot of useful information on who is attacking whom. And I'm still waiting to hear Narsis' scenario information for his three picks - where is he? -Preston

CD took care of the prod, so at minimum Herodez has a day or two to respond. I dont see anyone on the waiting list on the front page; it WOULD be shown there, wouldnt it? d3mon thew out the "KevinH deciding to lynch someone on D1!", but that actually made me suspect d3mon more for the accusation in that statement. By the votes, KevinH was the only one even considering no-lynch... and while deviations from norms can be significant, right now KevinH has the most votes - if people are arguing to lynch SOMEONE, I'm guessing he doesnt want to be the one. Regarding the initial bandwagon on KevinH, I'd thought he had gotten up to 5 votes during the initial bandwagon but reading back it only looks like he hit 4 - I still think at least one of those had to have been scum, but have no specific suspicion yet. Depending on how/when/if Herodez returns, I may end up voting d3mon. -Preston

Heh, I'm flattered to be counted as Intermediate after just the one game; was a FUN game though! I look forward to your post - which I am hoping will be a person-by-person list of why you suspect those three. * I think you're reading a bit much into flavor where TC is concerned. Your thought that he might have been roleplaying too much before catching himself is a valid theory, but I'm hoping he'd know better than to reveal himself THAT openly if he were scum - and if he were slipup-revealing a role otherwise that would make him town, in which case we should want to keep him alive so he can use whatever power he has. * Aside from the april fools' junk, KevinH hasn't really acted suspiciously - and joke or not the initial bandwagon on him actually makes me inclined to think him town; scum trying to secure a quick lynch before people thought about it too much. * Narsis... per above, I'm interested in his logic and what he saw that isnt registering on my radar. I dont /quite/ think him scum because this is overt very early for scum - but that's not a solid defense. I suppose inactives are a valid target when noone knows anything. Scum could be trying to sit things out and let the fingers fly without making a target of themselves. AKCPLUTO certainly took that tactic last game, and we didnt ping on him until late as a result. I could see veteran scum players telling him to be keep quiet when he can to avoid making mistakes too. I hesitate a little on the inactive vote though because it is almost too safe/noncontroversial of a strategy - you're not really taking much of a position. Still, it IS day 1 and absent a clear target you may as well remove someone that's not contributing to the game thus far. I am still semi-suspicious of d3mon, but if I had to vote right now I would probably vote for Herodez along with Kevin. Per above kevin is the only one I have any reason to think pro-town at present, hence his vote would stand a better chance of NOT being for a townie. Plus if herodez stays inactive... we'd just be removing someone that isnt really 'in' the game much thus far anyway. Though before we lynch it might also be worthwhile to ask for a prod to make sure we've given him a chance. -Preston

Last game with 11 people there were 3 mafia, so it is a good bet that there are 3 mafia this game; the math just works out that way. Unless Mole is doing something wierd this time around, I'm going to guess that assuming 3 mafia is a pretty safe bet. I dont exactly see Mafia drawing so much attention to themselves early on like this - though it COULD be intended to elicit exactly that thought. As for trying to make people admit their roles... no, I dont think that would be it. This is Day 1 after all; roles havent even had a chance to be used yet (unless Mole really mixed things up and gave people daytime roles!). Serious roleclaim season doesnt really start until day 2, or at least it didnt in the last game I played. Trying to communicate a role at all is risky since scum are just as likely to guess what you mean - and if TC is new, I doubt it's something he would do... no offense intended. It IS possible (and probable) to read too much into things in this game ... something I tend to be quite guilty of XD Just read all the analysis spinning I did /last/ game! Lists are useful. They force people to take stances on people that can potentially be tested or referred back to later when people die and are proven scum or mafia. Only problem is that on day 1 you're dealing with no solid information at all, so all you can really have are gut feelings based on how people are playing. Take any Day 1 lists that don't include more detailed reasons with a grain of salt. This is one reason why NOT doing no-lynch is so useful; it forces people to 'play' and interact more, increasing the chances that scum will either contradict themselves or display who they do and dont favor (i.e. other scum members) by how their accusations change, what reasons they give and who they side with. -Preston

That's also how it is written up on mafiascum.net: http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Category:Anti-town_roles It would indeed be weaker, and would explain why the janitor role wasnt used at all last game. Heh... so this is basically a reprise of your earlier joke, or are you saying you seriously believe they're scum? I'm not sure how to take this and I hope the jokes are (mostly) over. My own list is quite bare at the moment, but here are some thoughts. * narsis has quite a list for this early on. Unless he's joking, that level of specificity is a bit odd. One hand it could be scum semi-distancing tactic; throw down a collection of people and include a scum in there, then when/if they're lynched you can claim townie points without the exposure of flat out saying you think ONE person is scum (or town for that matter) and getting the backlash when that gets tested. I'd be curious to see a list of quotes/thoughts for each of the three that he thinks indicates scum if he is NOT joking. * ccabal edited an early post, as did caocao. But since that's before the game started I dont think those are TOO significant. * d3mon was moderately quick to point a figure at Herodez - on April 1 * d3mon then also pointed suspicion at TC on april 3 for his Janitor comment, then followed it up when EM asked him about it - i.e. didnt back off as if it were a joke. * Herodez played the "It's my first time" card as a defense - on April 1 * CaoCao went conformist and voted for KevinH, then unvoted quickly. * KevinH has started rattling off posts that contain little more than hypothetical roles, which... doesnt make a lot of sense to me. * I dont have a strong impression from KevinH, CD or EM yet - aside from the tomfoolery on april fools anyway. Most of the more experienced players havent taken any firm stances yet or done anything blatantly questionable, so this list seems to mostly be the newer people. The first game I played when I was scum, mafia had a separate PM conversation outside of the topic and we talked/discussed how the game was going during the day - and as a result we posted less in the actual GAME topic. TC is very active and seems to be asking a lot of legitimate questions. This does not exonerate or defend him, but it suggests he might not have that side outlet - I'm pretty sure I annoyed my teammates that first game with all the questions/opinions I was throwing at them in private! He's also acting like a newbie WITHOUT necessarily using it too strongly as a defense. d3mon's rapid retargetting and sticking to a fairly thin justification against TC this early is possibly the most overt action taken so far this game, second to narsis' specific list. He's also avoiding answering CD's questions for additional justification, unless I missed his response when I reread. tl,dr; My initial 'gut' is that TC is town and d3mon is scum, and I'm curious to hear more behind Narsis' analysis. -Preston

Be careful about trying to guess the meta-game TOO much; trying to figure out Mole's organization of the other game led to EM getting lynched. I'm not agreeing with your accusation of TC at the moment, but I will note that last game Tactical Evil Dan played the "It's my first time" card - and he was scum. My first game two games ago I played the "It's my first time" card to preemptively deter any suspicion, because I was scum. Playing up one's newbie status can be the perfect cover and excuse for actions that would otherwise be considered suspicious. My advice to TC: we're not anti-newbie by any means. We'll gladly answer questions about how the game works, etc, and I encourage you to ask them if anything is unclear - or alternately PM mole privately. But this is a game about paranoia, analysis and accusation where every little thing one does is suspect - every statement can be picked apart for nuance. This is the reason that editing posts is not allowed: you cannot go back and fix a post that reveals something you didn't intend, or change your story after the fact. If you're new, you're new: but don't expect to be above suspicion because of it, or use it as an excuse. -Preston