Preston

So if that's all there is to it - that there's no clear or consistent way to actually use any information provided by a cop in case people just go no-lynch... then yeah, I'm very much no-lynch still. If people no-lynch, then there's no vote records - not only to use in evaluating people post-lynch, but also to use the next day following the mafia night kill. Also - people talk about the risk of killing a townie power role before it has a chance to be used... but if we get lucky and get a mafia, we have a chance to deny one of THEIR power roles before it gets used also - and since there are fewer mafia than town for probably a comparable number of power roles (just for balance's sake), I think the odds are somewhat better that we get one of their roles than we get one of ours. I accept that no lynch is probably going to come up every time... but at the moment I really dont like the idea. So yeah. I'm not going to vote no-lynch... and I will probably be somewhat suspicious of whoever does. I encourage everyone NOT to no-lynch - and further, in so far as it's possible, to make sure that EVERYONE has logged a vote against SOMEONE before the day ends. Not voting or voting no-lynch denies us the ability to start tracking scum based on positive or negative confirmation. Everyone here was active enough to respond to a 48-hour signup period; there should be little excuse to not have at least SOME vote cast. Also - 11 people total - do you think that means we have 3 or 4 mafia to contend with? -Preston

I would like to re-ask this question, since it was never really addressed. There may be an 'understood' means by which cops perform in mafia games... but I dont know it, if so. Again - at present I think that actually getting some vote info on the first day (that we can ALSO use when examining the results of the night kill!) outweighs POSSIBLY getting cop info that we may or may not be able to use effectively - especially if Mole decided to give us one of the modded cop roles. -Preston

Well, after reading what everyone wrote... I think I'm against no-lynch as well. If we KNEW there was an investigative role, that'd be something - but as it stands, we'd also be at risk of having no real voting information if all the mafia bandwagon on no-lynch. No voting information means we might as well not have had a day, in which case it's like giving the mafia a free night-kill IF we really dont have a cop of some sort. If we DO no-lynch and there's actually an investigative role... how would the cop or whomever actually share that info without making themselves a target? I was being silly about the "NO U" on nerau, but for the moment I'm leaning towards KevinH; is this REALLY something he does every game, scum or no? -Preston

Heh, if I get this reaction then I must've played my hand better than I thought last game... To refresh me on the concept; how does no-lynch benefit the town? I remember there was a discussion about it in the previous game, but I cant be arsed to go find it. I think it hinged upon whether the town gains information as time goes by from some sort of an investigative role - but we dont know if we HAVE any of those, in which case I'd think we would just be giving the mafia a free nightkill without a corresponding lynch. Correct me if I'm wrong here. I'd rather get someone to reiterate the ACTUAL theory behind this. -Preston

For your bad spelling and preemptive attack, I find myself saying something I never thought I'd have to say: NO U! Vote: Nerau On a more serious note - unlike the last game, we're going into day 1 with NO information - not even about what roles EXIST in this game. Since this is only my second-ever game (and the first never really finished), is it normal to not even know what roles there are? -Preston

Heh... yeah, with AKC lynched on day 1, curu requesting replacement, and our upcoming night kill... we'd have been doing VERY well if Narsis hadn't vanished. Plus, apparently we were doing a decent job of blending in We were considering Martino or EM for the first night kill. We also made sure to give KevinH the godfather so that he could be "tested" by the weak doc and come up clean... even if the "test" didn't happen when everyone thought it would I kinda played up my newbie status as cover - was a little worried I overdid it at a few points. I /am/ genuinely new to mafia... but it was a nice sort of bonus 'respectability' when I could honestly say I didnt understand everything that was going on at first. I blame the holidays/start of the year for claiming so many others - Narsis was far from the only one inactive. Ah well - see you all in the next game! -Preston

Heh... So honestly, now that it's over; how badly did I do?

For those who havent checked mole has a signup going for a replacement game, rules TBD.

In as well - guess the old game is going kaput then?

Dont feel bad, I took it literally too. Again, way to confuse the new guy :-p As for restarting... things just started getting interesting again; I'd kinda hate to pull the plug, but if we've really got a full third of us inactive then maybe a new signup is needed -.- -Preston

Question; AKC confirmed he was townie, but reading back did he actually confirm he was VANILLA townie? I know he claimed it before being lynched, but post-death I dont know if he explicitly said it. -Preston

O.o I guess whatever Martino (I think?) said about you putting in the WD to support a later potential claim was right... that kinda hurts my head! We've had two fake roleclaims already... not sure WHAT we can trust at this point. At least we didnt lose a role by 'lynching' AKC - THAT would have been doubly painful. We're getting effectively another lynch vote since AKC self-mod-killed. Of course unless we find a replacement for curufinwe (who asked to be replaced) the field may be narrowed by one more; not quite equivalent to a mafia kill since he may have been mafia, but if he is/was town it will come down to about the same. Not sure how AKC will handle that. So I guess we're now back to square one, or nearly. We've got eight names that voted for AKC - and while he DID do a good job of painting himself into a corner, CD's claim is what finished him. Odds are good some or all of mafia voted for him. I dont know how to even BEGIN picking through them for clues though since everyone who bandwagoned can point to legitimate things AKC did as reasons for their suspicion. Thoughts? -Preston

PM sent - sorry for the delay Nice to see things actually moving again. -Preston

At this point yeah... the game has stalled. Either 1) start a new one, or 2) have a new mod take over - assuming that 3) Narsis returns to activity is out of the question, anyway.

He collected yesterday, has been busy. Hopefully will check in here sometime soon :-p

Interesting idea, and it WOULD potentially give us a means to eat through mafia's roleblock count faster.... BUT, remember that per the description of the Roleblock role, the weak doctor will NOT be notified when the block takes place. -Preston

Please make sure you say something before Narsis returns and the day ENDS so we cant talk anymore... which could be any time now. Would royally suck if you died and we didnt know whom it incriminated! -Preston

Bad vibe I can understand... and I can also understand veterancy making Martino a target :-/ Doubly so since the real doc has to protect you now CD. I guess tomorrow I'll get to see how we learn from whomever mafia decides to kill... well, whenever Narsis gets back anyway! -Preston

Heh... here's where I'd edit if I could, because rereading my own post I see genuine idiocy; I first ask CD to confirm that it's not the next day (The bold DAY 2 in your post DID make me go kinda wtf when I first read it), then I ask Martino about "tonight". That's what stream-of-consciousness will get you XD So yeah... where IS narsis anyway? XD -Preston

Things seem to have derailed a little - or at least devolved into more accusations. Sounds like the answer to this one is no, which is VERY unfortunate. If WD were notified of block, then mafia would be forced to block for all of the first 4 nights so that we would be denied any information, and absence of roleblock could be treated as a 'true' townie verification while presence would be 'mafia screwing with results'. As it currently stands, unless mafia decides to go bulletproof hunting (since we're pretty sure there is one) there's not going to be an easy way to tick down their roleblocker shots; those 4 will be stretched pretty well. As for the other stuff chaoshawk said... wow, lots of suspicion thrown around there. It's still worth investigating him tonight, but I dont entirely understand where your FoS came from CD; could you elaborate/explain please? Reading back, it sounded like he was just annoyed you had to roleclaim since now the roleblocker can target you as needed; see above. Just to be clear, Day 2 has not actually STARTED yet, right? @Martino - Wow, a HUGE analysis wall-o-text! Why is it you think mafia is going to kill you tonight though? -Preston

Whoa - a LOT has happened today! Seriously CD; that was extremely subtle. Is that kind of nuancing common in these games?? I'm with Martino in being a little bummed you had to roleclaim this early, since that'll put a big target on you for that 4-shot roleblocker ... but it ALSO means the real doc can keep you safe, which is good - we won't lose our weak doc due to a lucky mafia guess. Reading back I also see Narsis never answered my list of questions :-/ Though admittedly some of them are now moot. Ah well; good job work everyone

I was out/unable to pay much attention to this thread for most of the weekend; looks like a lot has happened in the meantime. I haven't seen a response from Narsis yet about my questions; maybe I'll poke him on skype or something. As for AKC... I'm just a little bit suspicious of this sudden revelation. Granted, I wouldnt have expected him to blurt it out earlier... but it seems a little convenient. Possibilities: 1) AKC is actually weak doc, in which case lynching him would be a HUGE mistake; 2) AKC is not weak doc, but claiming it to save his skin (?does this normally happen in these games, townies lying to survive another night?); 3) AKC is mafia and claiming weak doc to throw us off and get the weak doc to roleclaim. A little while back we said the weak doc roleclaiming was not the way to go, but now we're being forced into it? Yikes... are we sure that's a good idea? If (1) above, noone else CAN roleclaim - unless mafia fakes it, and we need to be prepared for the chance they will. If (2) or (3) above, we have to pray that the weak doc is not one of the inactives... assuming there's a weak doc at all. If someone else role claims, we will have to face the question of 'who do we trust' - and that's a huge issue with a lot of guesswork. AKC's already got strikes against him to where the lynch was about to happen, but I dont want to immediately lynch him on the sayso of someone that MIGHT be mafia trying to get the real weak doc killed. I'm not sure how to do a good test of AKC versus a second claimant in this case; it's a chicken-and-egg problem and the logic gets convoluted. Hopefully someone else has a better idea. If no one else roleclaims, AKC will have a target painted on him for the 4-shot roleblocker... but if our real doc follows ccabal's advice (which he should/would have to in case AKC is the real deal), we'd be effectively opening everyone else up to being killed by mafia with greater impunity. With weak doc unknown, we have doc and bulletproof to potentially block mafia kills, or 2/10 chance; with weak doc known and real doc tied up, we only have 1/9 chance of a block. I guess the only thing to do now is wait and see if someone claims. How long do we want to wait to see if someone DOES speak up - especially if it's one of the inactives?

Addendum (Since we're not supposed to edit) - I missed the single-death case where W.D. could be targetting someone town and mafia's night kill picks them off through luck/chance/guesswork. That would complicate things - especially if their role is revealed upon death (it is, isnt it?), and we now think the townie they targeted is mafia for the next day's lynch. Though in the mafiascum.net wiki (referenced via Martino's helpful post when I started), it says about doctors Do we know if this is what Narsis did/will do? And actually I'm going to officially ask Narsis the following questions: MOD: 1. When someone dies by lynch or mafia kill, is their role revealed? 1a. If roles are revealed, is Vengeful also revealed or is it something that happens silently for us to figure out? 1b. If roles are revealed, would we see Weak Doctor as Weak Doctor or Doctor? 2. Was weak doctor actually TOLD they were the weak doctor, or just that they were a doctor? -Preston

I had to read Kevin's, CD's and your(ccabal's) post a few times to get what you all mean about 'using' the weak doctor - and I think at this point we're assuming we have one, since there've been several posts about it. My understanding of the composite idea is that everyone (not just w.d.) targets someone else, and if w.d. dies then whoever they were targeting is now suspect. That said, it feels like the results are a little iffy - or at least prone to possible inaccuracy. Here's how I'm reading it; can I get some thoughts/opinions? 1 person dies: Either the lone mafia kill and w.d. didn't find mafia, mafia kill and w.d. was blocked from finding mafia (roleblocker/godfather), mafia DIDNT kill (blocked by doctor/bullet proof /they chose not to) and w.d died. This first case seems potentially ambiguous. Odds of mafia a) knowing w.d. is targeting them AND choosing not to nightkill to throw everyone off track are slim, but it's far more possible mafia will be blocked AND w.d. will die in the same night - especially if we have the setup of roles that we've basically agreed upon by now (no investigative roles), which means we would have two blockers (doctor/bulletproof) that could make this happen. We have 2 of 3 cases that the person who died was town, but it's possible in the 1/3 case that mafia could both eliminate w.d. AND have one of theirs 'proven' town by this method, which is a little dangerous. 2 people die: Either mafia kill AND w.d. found mafia, in which case both people who died are highly suspect, or it's a vengeful kill + mafia kill which could totally throw us off track. We could kinda guess the second if someone who died was part of the previous day's majority though. Actually that's a good question now that I think about it: if we lynch someone or mafia kills them, do we SEE if they were the vengeful so we can expect their kill the next night (lynch) or NOT expect their kill for the rest of the game (mafia kill)? I'd bet not, but it's possible depending on Narsis' ruling - and if a vengeful was about to get lynched, they might reveal themselves anyway so their kill doesnt confuse the town when 2 (or 3) deaths happen that night. If we ever see 2 people die, that's the intended "win" for this strategy - most likely that w.d just found their target, which would also probably validate previous 1 death/night results. 3 people die: It seems possible (though insane ) for three kills to happen in one night; mafia kill, w.d. dies, and vengeful kills. If this happens, we have three people who for CERTAIN one of them is mafia - all 3 roles are in play, and therefore all previous 1 death/night results WERE valid - but we've just lost a minimum of two townies in the process, and the third could be either townie or mafia depending on vengeful's luck. We would have to suspect all 3 people targeted by those who died. With all this said... if there is a weak doctor like we think, we're going to run into the above 2 or 3 scenarios anyway, plan or no plan. We might as well have everyone list a contingency "If I die, suspect this person" or something, so we'll have at least SOME information to work with. It doesnt NEED to be VOTING with the majority as you (ccabal) said, does it? Call it something like ICoD (In Case of Death), DV (Death Vote), LW (Last Will), etc - come up with a different term for it. I've re-read this a few times and it all FEELS like it holds together (and is long) - a sortof preemptive analysis for the cases we're going to encounter. Please let me know what you all think; hopefully I'm not completely extrapolating way too far here -Preston

Thank you both for the explanation, particularly Martino's last line - that makes a lot of sense. Hopefully I'll be into the full swing of this by day 2 or so -Preston