Preston

This is true - but absent a roleclaim on day 2 we won't be any better off then. If there's either no cop (unlikely) or there IS a cop but they find nothing (possible), there won't be a day 2 roleclaim to shift the equilibrium. Absent some sort of investigative role or other source of information, we need information to shift the equilibrium - and since it's safe for scum to vote no-lynch, there's no way to identify them by that. It's a valid option to wait until day 2 and see if a roleclaim happens - but otherwise, we'll be having the same discussion on day 2 with no more information than we have today. Everyone advocating no-lynch should be aware that they are gambling on more information being available on day 2 than day 1, when that may not be the case. That said, last round CD gave us good intel on day 2 - but then CD had a guard role guaranteed to see EVERYTHING that happened at night. We might not have the same thing again. -Preston

Valid point. That game really did come down to the wire. We can't know how it would've gone if we'd lynched EM on the first day; CD would've still seen Kasabian on night 1 and we'd have gotten a scum lynch on day 2... but after that we cant know how the numbers would've fallen from then on. In the past two games we usually had someone come in with math at this point to list out various lynch scenarios, but I'm lazy to go grab it from the other thread. I'll take a brief stab at it though. If we lynch today and get scum: Awesome! 'nuff said. Potential double-awesome: we could block a scum power role from being used. If we lynch today and get town: Ouch. But we'll have info on who voted for him to start considering on day 2 in addition to whatever else turns up, and this information could be used to guide night 1 investigations by whatever cop we have. Potential double-ouch: we could lose a townie with a power role before it's used. If we no-lynch today: Barring a lucky block, we lose a townie on night 1. On day 2 we have no more information to go on than day 1 unless someone found something on night 1 and decides to roleclaim on day 2. Last round this worked for us as KevinH said, but I kinda think we were lucky. -Preston

O.o I just got here and already we nearly have a lynch? I'm going to have to chalk this one up to april fools' too, but damn... way to make me feel behind! :facepalm: Heh, I'm tempted to vote you just for that horrible reference, but there's been enough joke votes already and I dont want to give scum the chance to quickly eliminate someone with no thought. Oh, and for the new people: Each day there is a voting threshold required to lynch, equal to (# people left alive / 2 (round down)) + 1: basically just over half. So today with 11 people alive, 6 would lynch. ONCE THE LYNCH MAJORITY IS REACHED, IT CANNOT BE TAKEN BACK! We ran into this last round; I unvoted to give time for further consideration after it had reached the majority but before the actual 'lynch' happened... but Mole ruled that the lynch happened anyway (And EM was town :-p). Be aware that scum can add their votes quickly in a 'blitz' to kick the vote total over the point of no return if it's someone they want to lynch. It looks like the classic lynch/no-lynch argument is getting started, so let's see what everyone has to say on that score. I personally am not in favor of no-lynch - while I'll grant the odds are low of picking scum, actual voting for PEOPLE on the first day gives us more information to use going forward. With that said, last round was my only full game and if we'd lynched EM then we would've gotten a townie... and using CD's cop info on the second day ended up yielding one scum at least (though also a false positive). It's not unreasonable to assume we have a cop of some sort, but we have no guarantee of that. I don't have a candidate lynch target yet, obviously - I cant take anyone's posts to this point seriously due to april fools' making everyone act wierdly. In the meantime - the april fools 'joke' vibes so far are throwing off how I would normally react to quick bandwagoning; I could see a lot of legitimate townies (and newbies) joining the fun and incriminating themselves because of the actual holiday. We had enough false positives last round so I suggest that everyone unvote to get the april fools' out of their system and then start seriously discussing lynch/no-lynch. I know CD always votes for KevinH first thing on the first day as a running non-april-fools joke between them, so that's not exactly unusual - but the rest of what's happening is a bit much. Anyway; glad this game is FINALLY underway! -Preston

Whew, we picked right! That was definitely an interesting game - and I kinda agree that mafia didnt have a lot of things going for it rolewise, though we kinda tripped ourselves up with the false positives - ccabal and EM. I'm also curious what the odds were of ccabal ever finding something out - that's one thing that had me suspecting him. I enjoyed doing all the analysis, though I kinda spun myself into a corner a few times. I'm just glad I built up enough townie cred that on the final day I was fairly safe XD Looking forward to the next game! -Preston

At this point, no matter how much I analyze things the answer won't get any clearer. All I can say is that if either CD or Kazio are scum, then a) mole was being sadistic in assigning roles and you have played a very good game. I'm going to go with my gut on this one, and hope that we've picked a winner for town. Vote: Tactical Evil Dan Moment of truth; let's see what happens. -Preston

You dont need to view someone's profile in order to send them a PM - when I was scum last game there was a shared PM conversation between the game mod (narsis) and all the scum for them to talk outside of the game thread, and they could just reply in there for their night actions. So yeah, I dont think this is a good indicator. I do have one other question for you kaziocore - I dont remember if you ever specified it, but was your revival role a one-shot ability or could you do it again today to revive ccabal? -Preston

I'm sorry, maybe I'm missing something here - how is this relevant? -Preston

I find it very strange that they targetted ccabal... he's one of the few I was uncertain about, and by removing him AND proving him town I dont think scum did themselves any favors. I'd frankly expected CD to be the next one killed. Were they afraid ccabal might have discovered something last night? I'll be interested in hearing a better description of ccabal's role from mole when this is all over. So there are four people left; time to do a little brief analysis. Kazio - Claimed "First-aid Lifeguard". Revived KevinH for a day. CD - Claimed "One-shot Security Guard". Detected movement on night 1. Led attack on Kasabian and EM based on movement; one mafia, one not. TED - Claimed vanilla townie during analysis of EM's role. Preston - Claimed "Cowardly Lifeguard" vote restriction. We have two that have demonstrated their roles and two that have no means of doing so. Of the two roles demonstrated, the question in my mind is whether either are roles scum would even possibly be given. CD's "One-shot Security Guard" has been confirmed in so much as it DID detect movement on night 1. He led a strong attack on both EM and Kasabian. Kasabian was indeed scum, but it COULD have been an intentional sacrifice. The manner in which EM roleclaimed didn't do much to help his case, but there wasnt much choice there - and CD had a valid reason to believe EM was scum based on movement. KevinH did contact CD on the first night, and if CD was scum then that might've gotten KevinH killed sooner - less mod-confirming of his role. I think the final bit is that if CD was actually scum, then the town would have had NO investigative role at all - no cop, etc. So I think this means CD is safe. Kazio's "first aid lifeguard" claim was never done in a lot of detail - but it DID work. This could fill the role of a doc, since the town doesnt really have others based on the skill list. I am inclined to believe this is not a scum ability because it gave town another vote for the day - and if CD /had/ been killed prior to using his role, Kazio could have revived him to hear investigation results. This leaves TED and myself. Neither of us have a means to "prove" our towniness based on claimed roles; mine limits my vote and TED has claimed no role at all. I am town - It's not like I can say otherwise - but beyond that I've been putting a lot of time into picking this game apart in general and doing analysis of... well, everything. Perhaps more importantly, on day 2 when I was cross-examining CD's roleclaim I got him to shift his initial focus away from EM and onto Kasabian first - when it would have been so much easier to CD's attack on EM continue if I had been scum and known EM was town. When CD gave us two targets, had the first proven town then his credibility would have been very much in question. By this math, if I assume CD and Kazio are town and exclude myself, then the only one remaining is TED. I've FoS'd him in the past (I'll go look up past reasons later), so in theory this should not be a problem. However, I hesitate a little because (1) TED seems a little too obvious of a target and (2) because scum's choice of killing ccabal last night makes no sense to me. Regarding (1): TED claimed vanilla townie to try and put EM away, yes. But AKCPLUTO also claimed vanilla townie, effectively aligning the two of them as being the only two NOT claiming roles. Maybe AKCPLUTO just made a mistake... but having the last two scum be the two claiming vanilla seems a little too convenient. Regarding (2): ccabal was one of the few unproven roles. That he HAD a role was confirmed, and that he should have shown up on night 1 was confirmed. Mole explicitly did NOT confirm if he was town or not. I was moderately vocal as being on the fence between him and TED being scum - and then he gets killed, reducing my list to one target. This makes me second-guess my analysis somewhat. CD would have been a better target. The only reason I can see their having targetted ccabal is if his curious child role could have given information to identify the final scum - but after three nights with no information I dont know if the fourth was any more likely. So I'll take a step back again and re-examine. By the numbers assuming CD and kazio are town, we have four main roles, two semi-useful roles, and two useless roles: cop, roleblocker, vigilante, reviver are useful, friendly neighbor and curious child are semi-useful, insomniac and cowardly lifeguard are useless. Ccabal's and EM's roles actively interfere with our lone cop, and my vote limitation affects our lynching process. If CD and kazio are town, then this is indeed a game with no vanilla townies. Scum was shown to have one goon and one roleblocker, and I presume the third that remains is the godfather equivalent - possibly with some sort of powerful ability to influence their night kills, like a role cop maybe (they DID get our roleblocker and vigilante first). I see two possibilities, then. 1) TED is scum, kazio is town: we have no vanilla townies, and Kazio's ability is indeed our doc equivalent. 2) TED is town, Kazio is scum: TED is our lone vanilla townie to match scum's lone goon, and kazio's revival was a scum ability intended to fake prove towniness or revive someone who suspected another townie. I am inclined to believe option 1 at present, but I'll wait and see what else happens before voting. We need a majority of 3 today, right? Oh, and note: You're not doing yourself any favors with your show of despair there TED. And Kazio's immediate vote bears examination, though as I said - he's the only option left if CD and Kazio are town. -Preston P.S. Slightly offtopic: Kazio, do you check this from an iphone or something? Both you and someone else I'm too lazy to look up always seem to have your lines cut to a very short width.

/In

Actually I think it's the full number. If we've lost, then I'll be interested in seeing who the mafia really was. -Preston

Valid point; I could see them reducing the number of "known" townies for the same reason they took out KevinH. Well, at this point we're just waiting on mole... -Preston

I might be the one they pick off too; I've accused several people quite strongly, and seem to be one of those who keeps asking questions to keep conversation going. For the record, I think my current biggest suspect is TED... but I dont think ccabal is 100% in the clear either. I could maybe see there being ONE vanilla townie. Time will tell. Here's hoping we get another day at all. Heh... on a more flavor-oriented note, I wonder if KevinH's removal after this day ends will be with the tone of being carted off in an ambulance or just keeling over dead again? Wonder what would fit the 'pool' theme better. -Preston

Those two I think I am accepting as town for the time being. I know I tend to overthink things, but you can't be too careful. Thanks for the input here at least. I remember thinking the same during ccabal's roleclaim, that it was a very odd move. I still find his claimed role - chance to investigate each night - a little suspicious when combined with the fact that after 4 nights he's had no results; at like 50% odds, that's 6.25% likely to fail 4 nights in a row. The only 'normal' role we've seen was the mafia goon. I could see town having ONE vanilla townie, but yeah - definitely not two. So at this point I cant really think of much anything else to examine. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope we've got the right (bad) guy. Vote: AKCPLUTO -Preston

Arrrgh, you had me going nuts with that one - given that your "friendly neighbor" is taken almost directly from elsewhere, if "remorseful henchman" existed elsewhere I could have seen THAT being used as-is as well. Well, that makes me feel a LOT better about Kaziocore - I'm going to guess he's the town's equivalent of a doc this time around. Hm. Between TED and AKCPLUTO, you believe TED is the more suspicious? Aside from being the first to claim vanilla townie, what else makes you think it's him? Also, I'll repeat my request for peoples' thoughts on the ccabal-TED scum scenario. -Preston

Bleh, the nervousness when we're down to lynch or lose! Frankly, when I saw the line in ccabal's post that said "Anyway, I suggest we get AKC out of the way, then (hopefully) evaluate the results, for that last lynch..." I balked a little. I am not 100% on ccabal, and to see him advocating AKCPLUTO gave me pause and forced me to start looking at everyone again; if ccabal is scum, then I do not believe he would advocate AKCPLUTO now unless AKCPLUTO is actually town (despite his suspicous behavior). My analysis at this point is spinning around in circles. The only one I largely trust is town at this point is CD - everyone else I can see some sort of scenario for them to be scum, but there's no means to PROVE any of them. My biggest concern at this point are the following possible mafia combos where AKCPLUTO is actually townie and his lynch is our loss: ccabal86 - TED ccabal86 - Kaziocore Kaziocore - TED I can't tell if Kaziocore's reviving KevinH is a point for or against him, after KevinH dropped that remorseful henchman reference - it DOES fit a little too nicely into an established definition. I still want to see where KevinH read about that - in particular to see if that same location has a town-equivalent version that revives someone ONLY for a day. The mafiascum.net site has a "Reviver" town role, but that is listed as permanent and only being used after someone dies; not quite the same thing. If we assume Kaziocore is town (seriously hope so for our sanity!), that leaves the ccabal-TED combination to contend with. ccabal: confirmed to be moving night 1. If mafia has ANY active ability that was used then, this is the only candidate. The "random investigator" ability seems a bit off to me - and I'd consider it VERY poor luck to have no results after 4 nights. And mole pointedly did not confirm town/scum role. TED: First to claim vanilla townie in this odd game. Superfluous Kasabian vote and final EM vote. The combination is VIABLE, yes. The question is if it's more viable than AKCPLUTO plus one of them (excepting ccabal). At this point I've spent way too long rereading this thread, so I'm going to ask some questions and stop for the night. @KevinH - can I get a link to wherever you got the remorseful henchmen reference from, and do you know of a townie equivalent role with the same limitations? @CD (and/or others) - can I get your thoughts on ccabal-TED as a scum combination? If we can knock that one out, then we should be safe to lynch AKCPLUTO. -Preston

I'm still a little unnerved by that Remorseful Henchman role KevinH mentioned. I looked for it on mafiascum.net and couldnt find it; can you link me to where it is described? I have updated the roles list from my previous post to include all claimed roles now Name - Role - When/Why Claimed: ccabal86 - Curious Child - Claimed on Day 3 to try and finish EM Kaziocore - First-aid lifeguard - Claimed on Day 4, revived KevinH CanucksDynasty - One-Shot Security Guard - Claimed on Day 2 to start EM/Kasabian lynch effort Preston - Unspecified Negative Town Role (Details withheld to prevent mafia exploitation) - Claimed on Day 3 during EM discussion to declare negative roles exist AKCPLUTO - "Plain Jane" - Claimed on Day 4 in response to roleclaim request Tactical Evil Dan - "Plain Jane" - Claimed on Day 3 during EM discussion when asked if any vanilla townies exist to confirm/deny idea of game where everyone has a role Past Roles for comparison: Nerau - Whistle-Blowing Lifeguard (One-Use Roleblocker), killed Night One. Kasabian -Mafia Goon, lynched Day Two. Chaoshawk - Pool Cleaner (One-Use Vigilante), Killed Night Two. Electric Mango - Insomniac, lynched Day Three. KevinH - Friendly Neighbor, Killed Night Three ... in the process of updating this list I realized something important; we do not know the details of ccabal's updated role - which mole was very careful to not say if it was town/scum. @ccabal, we need you to re-role claim based on whatever update mole made to your role. Other thoughts at present * Of those still alive, two must be scum. * We have two claiming vanilla townie. Unless the remaining scum (or really just AKCPLUTO) are REALLY stupid, I sortof doubt they would BOTH claim it - doing so pins them together too much. * If only one 'vanilla townie' is scum, then the last scum is someone else we are currently assuming is trusted - which will force us to re-examine EVERYTHING again. With that said, I still feel fairly good about lynching AKCPLUTO. Barring other discussion or suspicions, I'll vote once ccabal has done his re-role claim. -Preston

Ouch - you're right in that we can't ignore this as a potential mafia role, especially since we (apparently?) didn't see scum movement on night 1 unless it was ccabal (unlikely); an ability like that would need to be kept in reserve to fake-prove towniness in exactly this scenario. On the other hand, we have yet to see a town doctor type - this could be it. I was similarly confused by their targeting you - if they were going after useful town roles yours was pretty low on the list. I could see them not targetting CD on the assumption that a doc might be protecting him... but if they assumed THAT, why didnt they target one of the remaining unidentified townies in hopes of getting the doc? More questions than answers it seems; I'll think on this and respond in greater depth later tonight. Hope to see more peoples' thoughts when I return, as well. -Preston

Thanks. I'm still not going to vote until I hear additional detail from kaziocore, but after that unless there's something or some one else really worth discussing - i.e. if we end up having kaziocore prove his supposed role - I'll probably vote AKCPLUTO. Kaziocore's roleclaim is interesting in that it offers a means for him to 'prove' his role and his towniness. If we can remove him completely as a suspect that will be for the best. Heh... I wonder if a 'revived' victim would be able to name their killer? Heh, it does take two to tango XD Like you though, I'm waiting for more details on Kaziocore's role and potentially a test of it to prove his towniness. -Preston VOTE COUNT AKCPLUTO (1): CanucksDynasty Kaziocore (1): AKCPLUTO Not Voting (4): Kaziocore, Preston, Tactical Evil Dan, ccabal86 With 6 Alive, 4 is needed to lynch.

I had hoped to avoid revealing my limitation, but I can hardly argue for Kaziocore to provide details while not doing so myself. What kaziocore has said so far is at least the beginning of a roleclaim - non-vanilla, general idea of some kind of doc - and that cannot be taken back or overly tainted by me now revealing additional details about my own role. I will, however, require help to prevent mafia from exploiting it. My role is a Cowardly Lifeguard. I am a normal townie in that I can vote and have no night ability, but with one limitation: I cannot cast the final vote on someone that finishes their lynch. (Paraphrase to avoid modkill) You'll recall on EM's lynch when I withdrew my vote I said something to the effect of "someone else can cast the last vote" - if Mole had ruled that EM was not actually lynched at that point, I COULD NOT have re-voted the final vote unless someone else unvoted first. This limitation is also one reason I voted a little earlier than I otherwise would have liked - if I hadn't voted for EM's 4th, then I would have been unable to be the 5th even if I wanted to... so I was forced to make a decision earlier than others. You can see why I would call this a 'negative' role with no positive benefit, which would make me think EM's claim had some merit. You can also see why I was willing to believe in a game with all unique roles if Mole is flavoring otherwise normal townies with quirks like this. Going forward, when we vote on someone I may need someone to unvote if I would otherwise be the last. -Preston

I dont disagree with you CD, but as I previously stated I would like more detail from kaziocore: -Preston

Kaziocore, take no action until you have given us all a description of your ability - all parts of it. If your ability allows someone to be revived and possibly use a night action, there are FAR better options than KevinH. -Preston

More detail needed if this is your roleclaim. I'm looking for a paraphrase of your role PM, including your "title" and a description of your ability. -Preston

Heh. I cant help but think of "The Wine Is In Front Of Me" Or whatever it was. If one of the two currently voting are scum, the other could be waiting until a 2nd townie votes. There's... not much of a way to know at this point. Still - I don't think CD is scum - he's the lone investigative role, and that's unlikely to have gone to mafia. I had my theory of town having all roles and mafia having the investigator, but that just doesnt feel right - it would mean the town had NO means to identify anyone, no cop to speak of. I dont think ccabal is scum - while his roleclaim was awkward and meant to put EM away, I think enough of his behavior defends him as town. So with two people that I believe are town voting, then CD's analysis would stand: if AKCPLUTO was town both scum could vote fast and this would be over. They still COULD, but we havent seen it yet. There is of course the option that my feelings on those two are wrong, but... so far I dont really think so. I still want to hear kaziocore's roleclaim before finalizing AKCPLUTO, but he does seem like our best target. -Preston

Huh. When it was EM you were kinda gung-ho CD. I dont know how exactly I react to your 'no-lynch' concept and your lessened push for your current target. Numerically I get the idea; right now it's 6 alive/4 to lynch: 4 town/2 mafia. If we reach 2 town/2 mafia, mafia wins. If we no-lynch today, we're reduced to 3 town/2 mafia due to the night kill but have better odds tomorrow. If we lynch today and FAIL, we lose. No-lynching buys us another day, in theory at least. HOWEVER, I strongly doubt that scum would tip their hand by killing someone under consideration, so in the long run I don't really think this will help us. You're somewhat making me re-examine you CD - that suggestion doesnt really seem in the town's best interest. However there's enough for you otherwise that I dont seriously consider you a valid target. -Preston

Oh, and because I didn't include this in my previous post: TED, when someone is night killed people look at who that person suspected - those people are then suspected more. That's the reason KevinH voted for Kaziocore in case he died, based on the fact that he had used his ability to PM Kaziocore earlier. With that said, we now must also consider Kaziocore - though not so much for just KevinH's death, since KevinH outed himself. -Preston