Preston

The more I think about this (over dinner), the more I find it difficult to justify EM's insomniac claim. The biggest hole in EM's claim is this: IF he knew from his role PM that he 1) had no beneficial powers and 2) his presence would interfere with town investigations, WHY DIDNT HE SAY SO ON DAY 1? Roleclaiming a negative role would not necessarily make him a BIGGER scum target, and the information would not inherently hurt the town - revealing that there's a cop isn't exactly poolshattering news. I am currently considering the following scenario: EM was one-shot role detective for mafia. Investigated chaoshawk on night 1, got that he was vigilante. They'd want him dead ASAP, so instead of hitting someone active during day 2 (any of us arguing over kasabian/EM's fate), they took out the known threat. I am also going to: FoS: Tactical Evil Dan. Reason: I suspected him on Day 1 when he jumped VERY quickly on KevinH's bandwagon to 'call the vote' and end the day, amidst all the talk about how more conversation/debate would help the town. Mafia would want the day to end quickly without a lynch that could have targetted one of them - ESPECIALLY since the lone other lynch target was EM. I will not vote EM just yet - I want to see what reactions this brings out - but I am feeling far better about it. -Preston

I have two questions for you CD. 1) Was ChaosHawk your PersonX? If he wasn't, then that may speak to the number of pro-town roles that are in play. 2) You saw EM, Kasabian and a 3rd whom you are convinced is townie move on night 1. Kasabian has been lynched and confirmed scum - moreover, he was generic scum with no power role. Therefore if EM moved, he was either truly 'insomniac' - possible but increasingly unlikely - or he was mafia using some ability OTHER than the night kill. Do we have any idea/indication what that could have been? If we can determine mafia took some action OTHER than night-kill that first night, that would put a very solid pair of cement shoes on EM. -Preston

Is this line significant? Mole could be just adding flavor, or it could imply mafia used an ability last night in some form. If so, EM's excuse for activity is even more tenuous. CD - Kasabian's scum has made me believe your claim. Your role being one-shot as you just said is unfortunate, but you gave us solid info on a mafia that was not otherwise standing out. Frankly I'd thought I would get targetted last night - I've been something of a rabble rouser. That we've lost two power roles in such rapid succession suggests mafia has some kind of day role cop - or they're getting VERY lucky. Also, correct me if I'm wrong but at this point we're at 6 townies/2 mafia? If we mis-lynch today we'll be down to 5/2, and then night will bring us to 4/2. We've got a little breathing room, but we need to be careful with it. I will respond at greater length later; my getting access this time of day is somewhat of a fluke (and when I can it's usually to read instead of to write). -Preston

That -A- mafia would show up as moving when they do their nightkill makes sense. I do not necessarily believe ALL movement equals scum. EM could be telling the truth about his role. The important part for me is that CD roleclaimed and pointed at EM and Kasabian. This forces us to either believe or not believe CD. If we had clear reason to NOT believe CD, we'd be lynching him up as scum - but what he has presented is plausible and merits testing, as it's the only new development. If Kasabian tests out to be scum, that will help prove CD's towniness and buy us breathing room. If not, then CD may end up going in the pool tomorrow. Frankly, if Kasabian is lynched and found to be town... I think the town may be SOL; barring a night save we'd be down to lynch-or-lose, and we'd have no clear way to discern between CD or EM. Well, let's see what happens when mole gets back... -Preston

Isnt mole supposed to be managing the vote tally? He seems to be away lately. -Preston

It does feel like it's been quiet today. I dont have time at the moment, but I'd be interested in a list of "who hasnt spoken since the new day started". -Preston

At present I have little to add. I am waiting for CD's response, and likely signing off for the night soon so I may not reply in full till tomorrow. EM added one element I didnt remember: why would two mafia be active at night. We saw one night kill, but no other obvious mafia night action. This does not preclude something we couldn't see - some sort of a mafia role cop is possible - but that one of their actions is the night kill is logical. It is possible that, if EM's insomniac role is real, only the night kill took place last night. It's also possible PersonX was mafia using a 'fake-innocence' ability. At present we simply do not know. My statement remains; Kasabian first, then make decisions based on that afterward. -Preston

Before I begin my responses, I will preface it all with this: I am not yet ATTACKING CD - I am noting that at present the entire house of cards is based on the validity of his roleclaim. Note that in all my posts I was very careful to paint both sides to see how you'd respond. If we start weaving all of our analysis around the assumption that CD's roleclaim is valid, we risk making a mistake if this is in fact a very clever scum ploy. You're supposedly one of the more experienced players CD, and I could see you doing a very well-thought-out fake roleclaim. I could also see you telling the unvarnished truth here, believing it'd give us a quick game win. The problem is that it's day 2, and right now your words have nothing to back them up. With that said, here we go: Until we see a townie death with no role, we won't know if this is or isnt the case. Preston - you're really trying hard to paint me in a bad light. Why? Are you trying to protect your scum buddies? If you really doubt my claim...then vote for me. I am not afraid to be lynched as it will confirm to the rest of the town that what I had said is true. And for those that would have voted for me...most likely the 3rd mafia would have voted for me. Your move. - Per above; this is not yet an attack on you, and I am NOT defending them - I pointedly advocated for Kasabian's lynch as a way to test your analysis, and EM's after if he proves scum. Consider that last game noone countered KevinH's suggestion that we not give the scum roles that could interfere with a cop for a page's worth of posts: Mafia very nearly got roles chosen they would have LOVED, until you and someone else did extra analysis to challenge their premise. I serve the town by questioning you now. I think I've replied to this pretty thoroughly - huge wall of text. Ask me anything else you want more detail on and I will respond to that too. I'm fine with you FoS'ing me, but even as you FoS me you must acknowledge that everything you have said today will remain totally unconfirmed until it either produces a scum lynch or you are nightkilled and post-mortem proves your role - which is essentially all I have said. I will not vote for you today because if you ARE telling the truth, then you are a valuable townie. If one of your two targets is town however, you'd better believe you're going to get an even closer look. I put the onus back on you: Stand by your own analysis and vote for Kasabian, the one who can't excuse you if he's town. And I'll put my money where my mouth is, too: Vote: Kasabian -Preston

Bleh, one more reply (keep thinking of things after I hit 'post'... the no edit rule gets more and more annoying) We could vote for Kasabian. EM has roleclaimed a plausible (if difficult to believe) alibi. Kasabian hasnt. CD is claiming those two are scum. If we lynch EM first and he's telling the truth about being insomniac, then we have little choice but to lynch kasabian since CD will claim "hey I didnt know" as I mentioned above. If we vote Kasabian first (who has no such built-in excuse for CD if he's town), then we can immediately identify CD after a false lynch. Okay, really done now. -Preston

Addendum: 1) Didnt mean to double-quote CD's post. Bleh, that just looks sloppy. One time I wish I could edit. 2) I could believe a doctor protected you. As an experienced player who was active on the first day, you are a viable target for them. I could believe that they would also use it on the first night since doctor normally has unlimited uses. What I have trouble believing is that you would be informed of the NAME of who protected you, such that you could know to disregard their movement. 3) I have some difficulty believing the insomniac roleclaim... but at the same time, that could be a neutral/negative town role. I wonder how many of those Mole scattered around. The claim is clearly in response to CD's claim. Possibilities: i) CD's claim is true, EM's claim is also true (insomniac) ii) CD's claim is true, EM's claim is false based on CD's claim to provide an alibi. iii) CD's claim is false, EM's claim is true (very unlikely, as it would mean CD guessed a town role... unless something in mafia roles predicted it) iiii) CD's claim is false, EM's claim is false based on CD's claim to provide an alibi. If we assume CD's claim is true, then EM is either scum or has a negative pro-power role. - If we lynch EM and he is telling the truth about towniness and role, we will have lost a negative role - but THEN CD could claim "oops, he really was telling the truth, I'm still telling the truth, let's get kasabian next to prove me right!" - If we lynch EM and he is scum, that would seem to solidify CD's role - but it doesnt preclude a scum sacrifice to keep one of their own safe till presumably the end of the game. However it would shift the numbers more in our favor for the time being. If CD is lying, here's how I see it playing out: It feels like that would be a major scum victory. I dont know how to play it out if CD is telling the truth - Id LIKE to believe 2 quick scum lynches, but again that just seems way too convenient. Oh, and @ KevinH: I find it ironic that the one we otherwise wanted to lynch, EM, is now a suspect. If we'd voted him yesterday, that would have made things a lot different today - and possibly better. So while whether or not no-lynch is a good policy is up for grabs, it looks like we had our sights on someone of interest yesterday. -Preston

I have indeed been following this without comment until now - the more to give you or others the rope to hang yourselves with. I am... intrigued, at how quickly CD's roleclaim has become accepted by everyone. It could be real. It could also be a perfect scum defense - protecting one scum while placing suspicion elsewhere. I know I voted for EM yesterday, but somehow this just feels too convenient. In particular I would like CD to explain the bolded parts of his statement: Particularly in light of your later statements: What, exactly, DID you see to 'confirm' the third was a townie. If all you got was a separate night PM action saying "Hey, I'm a townie"... It could be the "friendly neighbor" type, but that's a bit of a stretch to assume they just LUCKILY targetted you on the same night you were using the cameras - or indeed that they would use their ability on the first night like that, especially if it's one-shot and they would have no idea whom they were confirming themselves to. It could also be a mafia ability to false-claim innocence once, though I find that less likely as well; again, early use of such an ability. I am also interested in your math. You are claiming a role. Nerau concretely HAD a role. You are claiming one other townie used a role to contact you. I agree that we likely have 3 mafia to deal with, and you have identified 3 townie roles. If there are other town roles beyond the three you specify, how much would that affect your theory? -Preston

Heh. And I've just been rabble-rousing... maybe i've earned an early bullet, if they dont want to pick one of you two off and start the guessing game. -Preston

Make that trying to STOP the no-lynch... bleh. -Preston

Work abruptly got worse for me so Ive had less time to devote to this - but with that said, I'm also mostly done trying for the no-lynch. I stand by my suspicion that there are probably 2 mafia in the no-lynch vote group. I'm also somewhat suspicious of those who tried to "call the vote" earlier - ending the day fast wouldnt have benefited the town. Well, we'll see what happens at night... heh, rabble rouser as i've been, maybe they'll kill me to shut me up! XD -Preston

There's truth in that real life takes priority and can cause inactivity. With that said, I dont like reacting to low post count as a lurker - because I tend to think mafia is likely to be MORE active instead of less. Especially early on. -Preston

I think the whole point of this game is that we're all supposed to be active people; we all responded to a 48 hour signup after all. It's nice to see some more people crawling out of the woodwork at least. It feels like we're getting somewhat away from the lynch/nolynch question though. At this point it's only EM and no-lynch that have more than a single vote. I'm not saying someone other than EM can't be made into a viable lynch candidate, but let's get some input on this from everyone. IF we assumed no-lynch was not an option, who would you vote for at this stage? -Preston

This is an interesting analysis - especially on such limited information. Do we even know that mole is giving all the roles (and deaths) a pool-ish tinge as you suggest here?? I guess I was somewhat spoiled by the last game when we had the full list of roles! With that said, I am very glad to see more discussion happening here. The more we get, the more tools we have to profile potential mafia. Voting for you is not personal EM, but CD does make a valid point about changes in behavior potentially being telling. Last game KevinH changes his 'norm', and noone took it seriously that it was an indicator he was scum - which he was. I'm not going to say you have no freedom to change your mind and try something new, but it does make you stick out a little more. There's only one way to TRULY know if you're scum... but thats a rather final solution. If we DO end up going no-lynch, I would encourage whatever cop there is (if any) to take a look at you during this first night. -Preston

Addendum: Another response to the "Wine in front of me" exercise - it only holds when all the rules are clearly understood by the one doing the considering. To quote Princess Bride: "So all the time it was your cup that was poisoned...." "They were both poisoned. I spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder." -Preston

Interesting thought exercise! The trick of course is that while mafia WILL be acting knowing that they are being observed... the intent is to try and make them slip up somewhere. EM is right in that when people CHANGE their votes/stances it is also visible. I'm not so much just betting on no-lynch final voters, I'm betting that while no-lynch was getting started, some mafia bandwagoned because it appeared safe and now must defend their choice. Even if enough votes change now that we DONT no-lynch, we have a list of who went that way to begin with - which is something. Still. I'm prepared to add some of the extra spice EM asks for - lets see how the dice fall. Unvote. Vote: Electric Mango Reason: No-lynch voting/early support of no-lynch bandwagoning, deviation from norms and making excuses, lack of further information... and hey, he asked for it to be interesting -Preston

What's suspicious to me is not just the no-lynch vote itself, but the relative speed with which people piled onto it once KevinH forwarded the idea. Since bandwagoning is a mafia staple to keep from sticking out, I'd believe at least 2 mafia are on the current no-lynch list - doubly so since it could be spun as a 'pro-town' tactic without alienating anyone. To promote additional discussion, I will again state that I'd like to see some current mafia-suspect lists of at least one or two names per person - especially from those who have been largely silent. Mafia benefits from being able to keep from pointing fingers as long as possible; let's make them do it. -Preston

Current Votes Electric Mango: CanucksDynasty, Tactical Evil Dan Preston: NerauNerau: PrestonCcabal86: KasabianAKCPLUTO: KaziocoreNO-LYNCH: KevinH, ccabal86, AKCPLUTO, Chaoshawk, Electric Mango Reformatted to be independent of speaker (i.e. no you or I). At present No-lynch has the majority. I maintain that this is probably a bad idea, and that there are probably at least 2 mafia among that voting list. Either way I am NOT in favor of ending the day just yet with this vote tally. I'd like to see some more discussion, and preferably some mafia suspect lists from people - see who is thinking what. I'm still up in the air as to my own personal 'mafia suspect list' based purely on this first day's voting/no-lynch argument. If I had to name names they would be: Ccabal86: Bandwagoned onto KevinH's no-lynch pretty quickly. Electric Mango: I'll go with CD's suspicion on this one, if this is different from his norm. Deviations can be relevant. There's another two I am wavering on but don't feel solid enough about them to say anything yet. -Preston

Can I get a current vote summary then?

Before you go to the question I want to confirm - has EVERYONE said at least something today? I don't want to 'call the question' until everyone has gotten a word in - not just for their own benefit but to get their perspective and to force mafia that may be sitting idle to take at least SOME position. -Preston

Clarification/addendum (Since we can't edit): If we have a cop, then his odds of FINDING mafia during the night are the same 3/11 chance of us lynching one of the mafia on the first day. If the cop finds someone who returns 'guilty', then great - they can start figuring out a way to shift suspicion to them, other than just coming out and saying it. If instead they find someone who returns 'innocent', then we're basically in the same boat as day one unless someone tries a little too hard to accuse that person.

The way I see it, if we no-lynch then when someone is nightkilled we have no idea about whom they might have pissed off or suspected/sided with during the previous day's voting. What is different on day 2 other than that someone's been killed, that would give us more information? We could have a cop, but I highly doubt he'd come out at the start of day 2 and say "Okay; person X is dirty!" We have to start SOMEwhere. -Preston