vgmmaster

Unless I'm mistaken, I'm at -1. Might as well claim at this point, although let's be honest, I don't see where it'll do me much good. That said, I am a vanilla townie. No power role whatsoever. Unfortunately Canik is dead so he wouldn't be able to verify I went nowhere last night if he survived the night. But before I am lynched if we indeed go that route, a few thoughts: Canik claimed near the end of day 3 that tracking me would be a good idea. I mentioned in my last post above that I could be a mafia scapegoat with them keeping me alive up until now. Only way to me that killing Canik over Lego makes sense if they're both indeed town. As if Canik did truly track me last night, he could verify me, but the mafia wouldn't want that as a mislynch of me could be easy to accomplish. Lego scares the shit out of me. The thing that worries me with him is what if as the roleblocker, he's making up his claims. Maybe night one he truly blocked Robert. But nights 2 and 3 he only claimed to block Rafay. "Blocking" scum makes him look good by default. Then there's the buddying up with Canik who tracked him night 1. Lots of ways for Lego to appear town to various people. He's playing his cards really well, but if Lego makes it to LYLO and is still alive, I'd say he's your final scum right there. I'd also be EXTREMELY cautious if there's a night where there's no kill as I'd worry Lego would claim to block someone for a free lynch and then back out of it by saying scum tricked him by not submitting a kill. Also, if I was scum, truth is, I'd want to NK'd either Warrior or Brewers first. The latter a known veteran player and I've gotten the impression Brewers is good at what he does as well. And besides, can I really be scum two games in a row? It's not like I'm the new SBG. But for now, I need to go to bed before work. Here's hoping you all don't mislynch me by the time I wake up / come home from work.

It's not that I got quiet Robert with the pressure. Ever since a few weeks back, I've been quiet as a whole and not online as often (not just here) spending more time with my mom for RL reasons. It's why I've been scatterbrained a bit and inactive at times. Truth be told, after this game, I'll probably take a break from mafia as I don't feel I can dedicate the time necessary right now. Not sure how I typoed on Kevin there. Whoops. As far as the night 3 vig goes, I misread your post there. That could be a viable strategy for scum. Have Rafay target a person and the third scum member target another. That way, at least one kill gets through. Wasn't something I thought of originally to be honest, but I could see it in retrospect. I wasn't saying that you specifically killed Canik. What I was wondering is if maybe Rafay sent the kill and the third mafia member was in hiding. Just because you didn't do the kill yourself doesn't mean you weren't mafia. Of course, since then, Lego has claimed to have roleblocked Rafay, so that theory is out the window right now. I'd agree with you that Lachiton is confirmed town and Isoc is as close to being town as they come without official confirmation. Everyone else is a complete crapshoot though. For scum having a second role, I wouldn't say it's guaranteed, but I'd say there's a decent chance of it. Considering there's 8 roles and 11 townies, I'd say it's more likely for scum to have two power roles to balance it out a little bit, but hard to say. I didn't "tell" Lego to roleblock anyone specifically in the sense that he had to roleblock that person. In my mind, why not block the scum you know and let Canik track the third scum. That, or if you convince the scum that Rafay would be blocked, have Lego block someone else. A bit of a mindgame with the mafia if you will. There was a purpose there, even if it didn't pan out seemingly (of course, we still don't know if we have a night 3 vig technically). And it's true that I was the final vote on Kevin. I won't hide that. I planned to vote at least, but I didn't forsee being quiet for almost a week. So while a lot of the talking was already done at that point, I still wanted my vote on record. Plus, it was better to hammer a vote just on the off chance both of Kevin's scum partners were already voting for him, although sitting at -1 would've been very risky for them. I'm just as confused as you guys that I'm still alive since I've died every night 1 since I've come back. After day 2 though, with Frigid's mistake and half the players roleclaiming, it makes sense that the mafia would focus on the power roles. I think day 2 may have thrown a wrench into their plans. With me being alive, this is just speculation of course, but I wonder if the mafia was going to use me as a scapegoat later in the game. Be all "how is vgm still alive? He always dies. Lynch him". lol, this one is funny. i mean, come on. vgmmaster is the first ever winner of mafia in IRON, and he should have stayed alive till the end to win those. First mafia game on record. Not the first IRON mafia game.

It sounds to me like the night 3 vig killed canik, i.e. is scum ("multiple shots"). I roleblocked Rafay, and he is now proven a goon. Thanks, iSoc, you killed him, right? So Rafay did not do the NK, thus they have a vig or else the other person did it. I think the vig is more likely based on flavor Robert didn't do the NK according to flavor. At least as I read it. Actually. Rafay got his gun out, IMO the NK was done by him but was blocked. Thus, I really think they have the night 3 vig. If Canik was indeed killed by a night 3 vigilante, the question then becomes why. With Canik being on Kevin's tail right away and with Kevin being town, one would think Canik would be viewed as town at that point. Arguably as much as Lachiton at this point. In that case, wouldn't it make more sense for the night 3 vigilante to shoot any of the other five people alive at this point? For the multiple shots part of the death scene, while it could mean a night 3 vigilante, to me, it makes more sense that it's just flavor purposes. As in the mafia fired multiple shots to make sure their target was dead.

Hugs, not drugs SBG. Looking at the death scene and seeing Robert's name. Not sure if I'm missing something here but there doesn't seem to be any information to deduce with his name being at the scene of the crime? It is good to see that isoc made good on his claim on shooting Rafay though (presumably). With only two deaths however, it would appear one of three scenarios happened: Night 3 vig also shot Rafay Night 3 vig was roleblocked Night 3 vig doesn't exist and we instead have a vengeful As for Canik's death, it's not the most surprising to see him dead. I think it's fair to presume that either Canik or Lego (if he's town) was going to end up dead with having the most dangerous roles left for mafia. While I'd think a roleblocker would be more dangerous to keep alive as he can shut down any mafia kill (if he's successful), it's also not as "GG" compared to what would happen if Canik tracked the last mafia member as what we saw happen with Kevin on day 3. That said, FOS Robert Not placing a vote yet as I figured it'd be worthwhile to wait for Lego at the very least, but not voting yesterday is suspicious. Combined with the times where you fall off the face of the earth.

Agreed. I almost think Kevin's screw up might have been that he was so adamant going after Isoc day 2 as well.

While true, Brewers math a page or two back checks out. If we're wrong, Isoc dies tomorrow if not tonight via a night 3 vig. It would be an uphill battle, but not an unwinnable one.

Reading through brewer's analysis of Kevin's previous posts (thanks for that by the way). He makes a good point about Rafay buddying up with Kevin. If they're both scum, that's kind of a dumb move on Rafay's part though, but I can never figure out what's going on in his head. We've already been over the whole "If Kevin is telling the truth" bit and I don't believe there to be anything to add there. On one hand, Kevin's defense is better than isoc's. On the other, it's a little too convenient that isoc supposedly targeted Frigid as Kevin watched. I felt something a little off there originally, but with where my mind has been all month, I wasn't sure if it was just me or not. And truth be told, I don't trust my own mind right now. That said, if Isoc is scum, I've already proclaimed about the nightmare scenario there, but brewers math has me at ease and it seems to check out. Only thing it doesn't account for is if there is a night 3 vig and both vigs are scum. But the chances of that are presumably slim. Vote: KevinH If we have a second vigilante, something I want to get out there on the chance I don't make it through tonight. We already know Rafay was buddying up with Kevin. I can't get it out of my mind that Lego is buddying up with Canik (or maybe vise versa). With both roleclaims happening during day 2, it'd be easy enough to do I believe. The other thing, I wouldn't so blindly trust brewers. He seems like he has a good head on his shoulders, but I'd be afraid of if he tried to lead the town astray. Kind of when people accuse others of blindly following The Warrior or Rhizo (forget which I've seen off hand), just because they're experienced.

unless thats to make sure lego doesnt RB vgm since vgm is the 3rd scum and is planning on doing the killing Nice narrative, but no. Perhaps my thinking is flawed, but my thought was, if Rafay is unblocked and sends in the kill, the third mafia member gets to hide one more night minimum (as we don't know who they'll target tonight). Actually, even with only one scum left, I don't know if it'd be a good idea to announce who you block. Reason being, let's say Lego's roleblock target is known. The mafia could decide not to send in a kill that night in order to frame that person. I'm going to laugh if the mafia reads this, sends Rafay in to do the kill (provided he's mafia) and it gets blocked anyways. As far as scum leaving you alive, it's hard to say. Provided you're both town, I'd think it's safe to presume either you or Canik are dead tonight. At that point, the mafia asks themselves, do they risk leaving you alive or risk leaving Canik alive an additional night. Both have their risks as far as the mafia is concerned.

Brewers makes a good point. That said, if we're fairly confident Rafay is scum and Isoc as vigilante kills Rafay tonight, Rafay could be a good roleblock target regardless. It would force the 3rd scum to do the kill and Canik can attempt to track them.

Sorry for my absence these past couple days. Was out on the road over the weekend and been a little crazy since I got back. Anywho... Unless I'm mistaken, Kevin is -1 from an official lynch and already past the minimum for a deadline lynch, correct? One question I have for isoc - I recall earlier in the day you mentioned about wanting to target brewers. While I don't disagree that Rafay is the better choice in this scenario, what are your thoughts particularly on Brewers? Just wondering on what the change of your mind is. Concerning Lachiton's proven innocence (post 267): While I think Lego was joking with his FoS, Robert's FoS is suspicious. Even without remembering the quote specifically, Frigid's investigation of Lachiton has been mentioned enough times. Wouldn't be surprised to see Robert as our third scum. From the way things look now, it appears that Kevin is the lynch of choice and isoc is targeting either Brewers or Rafay (seemingly the latter although Brewers was mentioned previously as well). If Kevin is scum, it implicates Rafay for sure. Perhaps it'd be a good idea to roleblock him again and let our tracker do the dirty work in finding the third scum? As for mention of the night 3 vigilante, whether he's a vengeful or night 3 vig, he shoudn't claim. At least not today at the very least. Keep the mafia guessing. Now of course, if there's three kills tonight, that cat's out of the bag, but the less knowledge mafia knows, the better. I'd almost say to let the night 3 vig do the kill of rafay (if that's the chosen route), but of course, there's no guarantee the role even exists. But it would keep isoc's bullet for a later time if that need arose. I'll do a quick skim tonight when I get off work, but if memory serves, I feel Kevin has been a lot more helpful in past games scum hunting and he hasn't given that same vibe in this one. While a scum vigilante and the possible implications are terrifying as we haven't lynched a single scum yet, Kevin may still be the target of choice and I can see myself voting for him tonight. Also one last thought concerning Isoc. Obviously if Kevin flips town, we'll know isoc should be should be scum just be definition of the scenario. But if Kevin is scum, what do we make of it if both Rafay and Brewers are both alive come day 4?

How is it everyone is always able to post so much during the day? Stupid work getting in the way. Evenings are generally when I'll be most active (not always the case admittedly). It's true that I wasn't the most active during day 2, especially during the first half. Preparing for a funeral and traveling between hospitals will do that to you. A couple things though. I didn't exactly ask Canik to roleclaim. I said that he may as well, especially if there's a decent chance he could end up dead that day. Whether or not we believed his claim of Tracker was up to us afterwards. I never said I didn't believe Canik's roleclaim. What I wondered was how do we know he's a pro town tracker as opposed to a scum tracker. With The Warrior going back through the thread to make an effort against Canik, I believed The Warrior to be town at that point. In a normal game, I wouldn't be as willing to lynch a power role, but I think we can agree this isn't a normal game, yes? We know 10 people are alive, and 6 roles are still out there. I think it's reasonable to presume that scum has at least one power role, if not two (I think three would be a bit much, but you never know). All I knew was, it was not in the town's interest to go to night 2 with a no lynch. And as of right now, I don't think Canik is worth trying to lynch as we have scum pinned already between Kevin / Isoc. And if Rafay is alive tomorrow, he's a good candidate for day 4. That said, if Canik is alive when it comes to LYLO and he's one of three remaining people in the game, I think we have to take a real hard look in his direction. In other words, I don't think Canik is lying about his role. If Kevin ends up flipping as scum, it does paint Canik in a more positive light. The only thing that scares me is if this is all a ploy. Sacrifice Kevin to make the scum partner Canik almost non-lynchable. I don't know Canik well enough to know if he could come up with that. But I remember Kevin from the old school days and I could see him as a schemer. Referring to the point I made above this quote, how does clearing you clear Canik beyond a shadow of a doubt? Wanting to make sure I didn't miss something here. Interesting claim here. Of note, nobody has counterclaimed either Kevin or Isoc (or anyone else) at this point. So no reason I think to not believe the role claim itself. That said, I'm wondering if it dug Isoc a deeper hole. What I mean is, if he is truly town, we could hit two scum between Kevin and whoever Isoc targets tonight (he mentioned wanting to shoot brewers). But if Isoc is scum, and he kills tonight, that's three townies down (mislynch, scum vig, scum faction). Lego was asking for who he should potentially roleblock, if we mislynch between Kevin and Isoc, I think the roleblock should possibly be the other person (especially if Isoc is scum and survives the day). While the scum faction can have whoever else send in the factional kill, we would be blocking a confirmed scum at that point and would just have to hope Canik strikes gold. Unless I'm missing something, the strategy sounds solid in my head at least. Good point made by Lachiton here. Rafay could have been blocked and Isoc could be lying about not using his one shot. I don't think this was asked yet, but Lego, do you get confirmation if you stopped an action at night, or no? I would presume no, but might be telling information if you did. While I don't disagree necessarily with the targeting of Brewers, is there anything specific about him that triggers red flags? I get that he could be playing us all for fools, but aside from that? Is it from when and The Warrior were going at it back in day 2?

Rereading through day 3, I agree with everyone else that we have scum between Kevin and Isoc. Between the two, Kevin has a solid defense and Isoc is screaming OMGUS from the top of the mountains, so with what we know, Isoc appears to be the lynch to go for. That said, if we mislynch here AND we have a town vigilante, I'd argue they should go for the remaining living between Kevin and Isoc. If we land correctly, it gets a little trickier. Possibly Rafay or SBG. Another name that seems to get overlooked is Robert. I feel I don't see him around all that often either. Concerning Robert, he is the only one to vote for our cop on day 2 and did not have a hand in the Canik / Warrior voting. While he was roleblocked night 1, there's the chance for him to be mafia and not submit the kill. Same applies to Rafay in that regard (RB'd night 2). Between these two lines of thought, we have one mafia between Kevin / Isoc. We have at least one other mafia between Rafay / SBG / Robert on the basis that all three have been on the quiet side. One possible thought is that whoever is sending in the mafia kills was the same person both nights. So if Rafay and Robert are both scum, but if Kevin or Isoc was the one doing all the kills, it would keep them safe from a roleblock or tracker. While I'm not the most familiar with Robert, having seen Rafay in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia would try to keep him hiding in the shadows somewhat. That, or completely throw him under the bus. Not sure which. While writing this, one other thought popped into my head concerning Canik. While I don't necessarily think he's scum for sure, there's an interesting narrative to be had here. If he's a mafia tracker, he could have decided to buddy up with Lego. With deducing that Lego was the roleblocker and knowing he'd at minimum survive until day 3 (with the cop being an obvious night kill target) or possibly even day 4 (with Lego's death possibly?), it's one hell of a gambit if him and Kevin are both in on this. But one that could pan out if we stop suspecting him. After all, let's not all forget The Warrior's efforts in tracking down all of Canik's posts. That said, between Canik and Lego, I trust Lego more. Either way, if one of these two do happen to be scum, I don't suspect the other to be at that point.

The PGO doesn't "go alert" necessarily, as it's a passive ability. In this case, what 1-shot means is if somebody targets the PGO, that person is dead. However, any subsequent targets will survive as the PGO will have used his one bullet. The only thing that throws a wrench into this theory is if somehow the roleblocker nullifies the PGO. I don't believe that is a common trait however.From x/y mafia role list, it says they may chose to arm themsevels, so it sounds like they have to activate it Thanks for that. I completely missed that as I was reading up on the role itself and not necessarily how the role relates to this setup. Completely blows my theory out of the water then.

1. It has been stated mames, you do not get to choose. 2. Backup is the more traditional town role... role cop is more useful for scum in this game. 3. Wrong, Kevin watched and saw you visited him. He knew he himself was there! We know people targeted Canik, right, looks like frigid targeted him too. But probably "friendly" or else Rafay, as Canik did not die and I blocked Rafay. 4. Bad OMGUS. Bad blame shifting. I am voting you in exactly 7 days. You are scum. Also someone said lachiton sniped frigid. Um, Frigid was town and not insane, so how could he kill Frigid? Unless he was the pgo? I presume you're referring to my post about the sniping. I wasn't saying Lachiton sniped Frigid. I was writing my post while Lachiton posted something similar a minute previously (so Lach sniped me). Should have prefaced it with an EBWOP. My mistake. I always forget this forum merges posts together if they're quick after each other.

A question for MK - If the one shot vigilante was roleblocked, would his shot be refunded or is it wasted? Obviously, not asking you to confirm if the role is in the game. Just wondering what that scenario would be if possible to confirm.

Kevin did mention the names he saw visit Frigid. The only other name to have come up was yours. Reread his post again. I even colored it for you in case you missed it. Now of course, Kevin could be lying, but time will tell in that regard. As far as multiple people at Frigid's death, it could be construed in a few different ways. Did the mafia travel together for story purposes or did the mafia act alone? Regardless, if Kevin is telling the truth, there were four people in the same vicinity reading the death scene that we can put together. Frigid (the victim), Canik (who he investigated), Kevin (watching Frigid), Isoc (the killer). And sniped by Lachiton. And no Isoc. Kevin is saying one person targeted Frigid other than himself. That person is you.

The PGO doesn't "go alert" necessarily, as it's a passive ability. In this case, what 1-shot means is if somebody targets the PGO, that person is dead. However, any subsequent targets will survive as the PGO will have used his one bullet. The only thing that throws a wrench into this theory is if somehow the roleblocker nullifies the PGO. I don't believe that is a common trait however.

Day just started man why you want to end it early? It's not a good advise from a self claimed townie.I urge town to not end it sooner. Let's get everybody's thoughts in. We have to be prepared for next day's lynch as well so better to let the discussions go on for a while. Agreed. We have a full week for discussion so may as well make use of it. One thing to note is, barring night 3 shenanigans, we have at least one more mislynch on our side if it comes to that. So regardless of who we lynch between Kevin and Isoc, if we're wrong, we lynch the other day 4 (or the vigilante can target them if they exist).

Looking at who's left alive and what roles are still around, here's what we're looking at presently. Some roles are claimed, other stuff while not confirmed, I believe we can make safe deductions on. Concerning the PGO, I presume the roleblocker would not stop the PGO from going off as it's a passive role and not activated. Please correct me if I'm wrong there however. 1) Night 3 Vigilante OR Vengeful - Unknown 2) 1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO - Unknown 5) Roleblocker - Lego 6) Universal Backup - Kevin 7) Fruit Vendor - Unknown 8) Tracker - Canik Reading the night scenes from night 1 and 2, we can deduce that SBG and Lachiton are not the Fruit Vendor If the PGO exists, we can deduce the following are not the PGO (does not rule them out as a one night Vigilante though if that role exists instead) 1. SeaBeeGipson (given fruit) 2. Lachiton (given fruit / investigated) 4. Canik (not investigated, tracker claim) 5. KevinH (tracked, Backup / Watcher claim) 9. Rafay (roleblocked) 10. legoboyvdlp (tracked, roleblocker claim 11. Robert2424 (roleblocked) That leaves myself, brewers, and isoc as potential PGOs. With Frigid's death, we can confirm that Lachiton is town. Everyone else's alignments are in the dark (as far as the cop goes). Going back to my comments a few hours ago, not knowing how many potential vigilantes we may or may not have, night 3 could be a very bloody night.

Damn it! Just when you think you have something solid it turns to wine in front of you again! xD ​Well, let's see what iSoc has to say. ​ Unvote it is still a huge lead cause now we know its either Isoc or Kevin so we now have a 50% of killing scum today Very true. And in all honesty, I wouldn't say Canik is out of the woods either. Although at this point, I'd agree he's not the person to lynch presently. If Kevin flips scum, Canik and isoc both gain townie points. If isoc flips scum, Kevin gains townie points. Worth keeping in mind though that it wouldn't exactly clear anyone as a whole. For all we know, this is a gambit on part of the mafia and two of the three mentioned here are working together. Sacrifice one and practically clear another.

Considering vigilante, we don't know if we have 0, 1, or 2. Robert or Rafay could be a vigilante since we supposedly know they were both roleblocked on nights 1 and 2 respectively. That said, if we have a one shot vigilante, it's better for the town that he didn't shoot last night and potentially save it for tonight. If he shoots on night 3, it keeps the mafia guessing as to whether it was the one shot vig or night 3 vig.

Quick post until I get off work tonight: Reading the death scene and follow up report, it looks like we have a fruit vendor. They targeted SBG and Lachiton, but whether it's a joke role or actually does something is still unknown. Multiple people were involved with visits surrounding Canik / Frigid. Possible scum discovered between Canik and Kevin. Canik claims to have tracked Kevin. No claim from Kevin currently. Would like to hear more from Kevin in this regard. Lachiton presumably town at this point having been investigated by Frigid. All other alliances unknown.

As long as we translate the flavor texts correctly, I can see that. That said, night 2 is going to be interesting. With the roleclaims, that means we have no doctor so any three of the spilled power roles could be dead in the morning. Of course, regardless of power role, it has zero bearing on whether they're town or mafia with the way the game is set up.

As for your roleblock ability lego, it's hard to say. Maybe one of the people who were most vocal against The Warrior (if he flips town). Otherwise, maybe Rafay or SBG?

Unofficial Vote Count: The Warrior (4): Canik, legoboyvdlp, iSocialism, brewersalliance Canik (3): The Warrior, vgmmaster, SeaBeeGipson iSocialism (1): KevinH Rafay (1): Lachiton FrigidInferno (1): Robert2424 SeaBeeGipson (0): Lachiton (0): KevinH (0): vgmmaster (0): legoboyvdlp (0): Robert2424 (0): Brewersalliance (0): No Lynch (0): Not Voting: Rafay, FrigidInferno,