BeeBs

CIV IV. No question.

I would like a higher post count, do you do that here?

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A great first game! Nerau really sealed the deal there at the end, but I think Kaziocore is right, the game had enough inactivity to make you guys pretty ineffective. Thanks for being a good sport there at the end FightingOkra. That must have been a shock when you went from 0-100 in less than ten posts. Preston and I got by pretty suspicion free too, which was interesting. I guess we just got a good vibe. What would have happened if D3mon had been lynched? We'd still keep going but no NK power or does a goon get promoted?

A great first game! Nerau really sealed the deal there at the end, but I think Kaziocore is right, the game had enough inactivity to make you guys pretty ineffective. Thanks for being a good sport there at the end FightingOkra. That must have been a shock when you went from 0-100 in less than ten posts. Preston and I got by pretty suspicion free too, which was interesting. I guess we just got a good vibe. What would have happened if D3mon had been lynched? We'd still keep going but no NK power or does a goon get promoted?

Well, those I suspect to be townies have all jumped on FightingOkra. Only those I am skeptical of have not. I have been urging that we take a look at FightingOkra for some time, though I did not expect it would be via stoning him. He has been on my list and I have said as much, albeit low on that list. He voted for Angel Cruz dela Saint. He is one of three role claims to have done so. I don't know why you didn't protect Nerau yesterday if you had the power. The fact that you have it left seems more like a "please don't kill me or you'll be sorry" rather than an actual claim. No guts no glory? Unfortunately, my attempt to follow solid evidence is sort of a wash. There really isn't any is there? Its all paranoia. If I had to pick the scum right now, FightingOkra would be on the list. That's as good as it gets. If he is town and there is a tomorrow I think we'll have something to go on about these role claims. VOTE: FightingOkra I shouldn't have left myself to be the hammer, tomorrow, if there is a tomorrow is going to be hell.

Oh god, not again. Look, if it turns out someone is lying they got pretty lucky they didn't get a counter claim. If the lot of you are lying, nice work, but you still probably got lucky there weren't counter claims. I think it is interesting that Kaziocore and D3mon have claimed and now so has my placeholder to round out the scum. Weird stuff. Seeing as we got the half majority already (8/2 = 4/2 = 2, 3 > 2 right?), I'll reserve my vote for now and see what happens. While I'd like to follow our only townie, I'm not keen to do it without a little more pressure. We came down really fast without really suspecting FightingOkra at all first. I was thinking Nerau would come in and pick Kaziocore or D3mon, but I was very wrong. I'd like to see where Preston lands too as he's been sort of on the other side of KevinH the second half of this game and if by some weird miracle we don't lose but, FightingOkra is a townie (impossible?) then I'd rather have his opinion on the matter before the day closes and I won't be surprised if Kaziocore's next post is a vote. I'm content to leave the half majority to do their business and following the only known townie isn't completely unsound. I'll definitely get back on before 10pm tomorrow and see if anyone has checked in or changed things up. Another role claim maybe? Please, no. If we get a little more discussion going I'll think about a vote on FightingOkra, otherwise I will leave the half majority to do the dirty work. PLEASE, if I am misunderstanding the requirement for the half majority let me know. Also, I'd like to maintain a stance of using more concrete evidence to vote, so that is why I am reserving my vote for now. If we get some discussion going I could certainly be persuaded to vote. I'd like to hear more voices before doing so.

This is a little ambiguous. It is night phase from now for the next 48 hours or night phase beings in 48 hours? I'm assuming the former based on flavor, but I'm not sure according to the tl;dr.

I suppose this is a smart option. However, I'm worried that Nerau's inactivity would make him a bad candidate to follow, though he is our only candidate. His lack of posting may indicate an oversimplified view of peoples scumminess and, much more concerning, he might not be back in time. I think we should consider who to vote for if we don't hear from him, a very real possibility. Who should that be? I'm pretty lost as who to call, to be honest. Kaziocore and D3mon seem equally suspicious to me at the moment. Both have called each other out with similar arguments. Both have role claimed and their roles together do seem to suggest a pretty well flushed out townie pantheon of powers. I am not impressed with Kaziocore's most recent post; however, I understand i was grasping at straws a bit. I am not impressed with D3mon's popping in and out, but I don't want to use that as a justification. I feel like both are on pretty even ground, staying afloat, but only because nothing has really tried to pull them under. I'm pretty confident in Preston. My troubles with KevinH have dissolved since earlier in the game, but they linger in my mind. There have been a few posts that have been really impressive from KevinH, but I find myself asking for more from many of his posts. Preston's always seem to demonstrate strait forward reasoning and are very accessible, not traits I would consider to be scummy. I'm still worried about FightingOkra. I think we've let him slip by too much. On the other hand, i have nothing to go on here. I've brought up his voting record a few times, but it always seems to go unnoticed. There's nothing conclusive and certainly isn't a ringleader, but on my list simply as a place holder. My biggest fear is that Kaziocore and D3mon are both scum. I think they've orchestrated a pretty convincing drama. First, they're seemly friendly on the first days. Then it all hits the fan and they drop each other pretty quickly. They toss some accusations at each other and make themselves the issue, distracting us from discussing alternatives. Kaziocore role claims and makes it pretty convincing, explaining why he mistrusted D3mon. However, he's able to back away from that evidence as the days go on as new evidence surfaces and becomes more solid. Dismissing his own evidence in later posts. D3mon role claims a sort of complementary role to Kaziocore and they fill out the missing townie power roles. Without any other roles out there things seem to make sense and the pieces seem to fit. So, I want to believe they are both townies because that is equally likely following this story, but again, I'm worried they plotted this out in one of the early night phases and are just biding their time. I know that's not evidence, it just seems like they've had a pretty sketchable relationship. I am now worried about no lynching because I want to give due time if there is a counter claim out there. Also, I think we should put this together and see if we can pick a target. Maybe we will hear from Nerau and can play follow the townie in place of follow the cop. However, deadline is.....today?! Tomorrow?

On the other hand, the scum could substantially mess with our conclusions here by killing either D3mon or Kaziocore. Suppose the majority opinion prevails (I still have my doubts), that Kaziocore and D3mon are on different sides. If they kill one of them we'd have a very different ball game. Now, in the specific case of Kaziocore v. D3mon, our odds will be static no matter what because their allegiance will not change. So, if we are keen on voting for one or the other it doesn't really matter what day we vote on. If, and that seems like a big if and this point, we have power roles we get another (hopefully useful) night. I don't think so. I agree that the direct point of his post was the identify active players versus inactive players and demonstrate that the scum could very well control the outcome of the game if they control that active majority. However, I think there were some very important implications. It was those implications that I was attacking. Namely, if Kaziocore is suggesting that this is a problem the first question is, how do we find a solution? The solution is dealing with those players on the active list so they don't control the game. Now, that means that if we want to do that, we should lynch a scummy player on that active list. His list implied that we should consider the scumminess of the active players. That implication is what my post was attacking. I agree that it wasn't his direct purpose, but that is why I said it was misleading. I think this was a relatively subtle implication and I didn't want it to go unnoticed.

1) I wouldn't suggest you suspect yourself, but if you building a list of activity that we (as a team) should consider, you should not leave out members, yourself included. 2) Right, but its not very helpful if it severely oversimplifies the options. 3) You added Nerau to your list 4) Your list is oversimplified and you suggested that if there are members of a certain class in a certain group then we are in danger. 5) Your list is oversimplified. 6) You didn't provide any evidence, that's not helpful. This might be one of my biggest concerns. You're suggesting that our most active players are our most dangerous ones. You don't specifically state what to do about that, nor do you suggest any real reason to suspect them. This is why it seems more like a scare tactic than analysis. 3 - 6) The fact that these considerations aren't in your post is exactly what troubles me. 8) Sorry, this should have been a 7. The majority vote requires five today and four tomorrow. That means two townies need to vote today and one needs to vote tomorrow before the mafia can pile on and when if said townies are wrong. If it is three as you suggest we would have already lost. (We're both assuming three mafia are in this game.)

This seems rather misleading. First, you haven't put yourself on this list. So it is short one candidate. Second, there is surely reason to divide between more than just two categories of activity. Third, Nerau is town no matter what side of the list he is on. Fourth, there are good reasons to be more inactive than active and visa versa, at this point in the game, as a scum. Fifth, activity in terms of frequency it is just as important as activity in terms of content. Sixth, you give no evidence to suggest that if one (or even two) people on your active list are scum that they will win or evidence to suggest that people on either list are scum or not. Seems more like a scare tactic. Eighth, the scum need the townies to vote (a.k.a. be active) to get a day kill. If we're smart they won't win that way. In addition, I think thinking in terms of activity for vote candidates is something we need to move past as it is a partial reason (maybe even the dominant reason) we're losing. On the other hand, I concur with your conclusion about a no lynch for other reasons. If we don't decide to vote for someone collectively today, and we should, I think, before we actually use our vote power, then we might want to no lynch. It doesn't seem like anyone has demonstrated that this is a particularly stupid idea anyway. If we no lynch, tomorrow we will have to be especially careful about deciding who to lynch before we actually type in our vote.

Sorry, I didn't mean anything with the . That should merely read "B )" with no spaces.

A) Because you are scum. Because you have a power role that is better left unknown. C) Having a power role at all, even a relatively weak one in Nerau's case (though obviously beneficial and could be used quite effectively...until the other one dies :facepalm: ), makes you a target for the scum that could significantly change the odds of victory, (See my last post) so you keep your mouth shut. No, I'm saying everyone role claims they are a simple townie from Day 1. Your particular role claim did not add any evidence to your suspicions of D3mon and seeing as you wasted your shot, has lead to no tangible benefit to the town whatsoever. Therefore, I find it to be relatively moot that you role claimed at all in terms of actual game benefit, but I do find it interesting for other reasons. Namely, that you felt compelled to do so at that time, that you used it to bolster your credibility when it really doesn't seem to, and finally that you don't seem to think there is any problem with your role claim in these ways, and others, when you've also claimed that you "understand perfectly" that there are suspicions of it.

I pointed out both of these in my last post as well. Unfortunately, in terms of buffer it doesn't do a whole lot of good. Its not a real beneficial buffer. That's part of the reason why I don't see that a no lynch vote today would make us worse off tomorrow. We might lose Nerau, but whether we do or not our odds don't drop. Unfortunately, he hasn't been very active. If that continues through the end of the day I don't know that it wouldn't be better to no lynch today and vote tomorrow than to roll the dice today. If Nerau gets a little more involved his opinion in our vote today might be worth more than raw odds. I think it would have to be a pretty substantive opinion though.... Vote Today (Nerau Confirmed/3 Mafia Assumed) 3 mafia/7 reasonable contestants: 43% chance to lynch a mafia No Lynch Today - Nerau Survives 3 mafia/6 reasonable votes: 50% chance to lynch a mafia No Lynch Today - Nerau Dies 3 mafia/7 reasonable votes: 43% chance to lynch a mafia Either way, we don't lose ground? (Please, double check my reasoning/math if you think something is funny.)

1) I didn't mean to start up some sort of false ultimatum in my last post. While obviously there are other lynch candidates, the two of you seem to relatively certain of each other. Furthermore, from everyone's discussion it seems like you've both caught the most heat. However, I would be happy to entertain other choices as well. KevinH has been mentioned by a few of us, as have others. Let's not get to sucked into simply voting for Kaziocore or D3mon and marginalize the other two scum that are out there. 2) Why role claim vigilante? As myself and others have pointed out, you can claim a power role without taking any further responsibility seeing has you have wasted your shot. I don't think we have much more reason to think there is another vigilante. Why not roleclaim as a simple townie? We've all been role claiming as a simple townie since Day 1. You could have simply disseminated your "evidence" against D3mon without any role claim what so ever. It doesn't seem to lend much credibility and could maybe even detract from your credibility.

Well, what information should we try and collect before the end of the day? I'll defer to experience on this one. If you (everyone) haven't cast a vote, why? Besides "I don't find anyone summy enough", is there some amount of information that could help bring you to a vote? Is there some type of thing that would help anyone make decisions? By type of thing I mean roleclaims, specific scum tells or something categorical like that. Otherwise, do you just have some decision making to do? I'm surprised that Kaziocore nor D3mon have not voted for one another. It seems like they have significantly indited one another. If we assume (this may or may not be a fair assumption) they vote for each other: D3mon: Kaziocore Kaziocore: D3mon Well with a quick recount, we can afford two wrong votes before the scum can pile on if there are three mafia. If I vote for either of them and am wrong, then assuming the other voter is scum we have Townie (D3mon or Kaziocore): Mafia (D3mon or Kaziocore), Townie (BeeBs), Townie X, Mafia Y, Mafia Z What does this mean? The question is, do I reasonably think I could vote for either of them with a strong enough assurance of their scumminess right now and not have another townie feel the same way as me? Considering FightingOkra's history, if I voted for D3mon I believe he would certainly consider following me. I don't think FightingOkra is scum, so that means a loss if I am wrong. Considering Preston's post, if I voted for Kaziocore I believe he could entertain a considered vote for Kaziocore. I don't think Preston is scum, so that means a loss if I am wrong. On the other hand, I'm not entirely convinced they are on separate teams, but I'm going to defer to popular opinion for now. I'm worried about setting a precedent that will lead to a loss in this fashion. It makes me want to revert back to previous claims against KevinH, but I don't feel like he has continued the patterns I identified earlier. Furthermore, again considering Preston's post, he could potentially be the second townie to make the vote. However, I still have those considerations in the back of my mind and may end up there. What if we No Lynch? While this seems counter intuitive to me, but it does a couple things: 1) It gives us another day. A no lynch prevents our loss today, unless my math is wrong. If my math is wrong, this is a silly idea. 2) It means we increase from a 37% to a 42% chance to blind guess a mafia. With a little bit of consideration I think our chances would be better than that as well, especially if Nerau is safe. Considering he wasn't killed yesterday, I don't know if that makes him a more or less likely target. 3) An undeclared townie role would get another shot, though that is heavy speculation. So, if the answer to my first question really is "no one seems scummy enough", then is this a better alternative? If you don't think our odds are much better than guessing or at least strong enough to make a good case, then would this make our last lynch more effective? We'd just have to bite the bullet in this case. I'm not advocating this yet, but it seemed worth mentioning.

I tend to write that way pretty much always, more wordy than I need to be. I'll work on being more concise, it is a skill I need to work on anyway. However, I do believe, dense as it may be, that there is significant access to my thoughts within that post and others. So while it may be wordy, it is nevertheless legitimate. The reason I went out of my way to make the claim is twofold. First, because I do not want to fall into the precedent of defending someone without any evidence. Like I tried to explain, if Kaziocore's evidence is D3mon's profile visits then there is no way to really defend him within the realm of his actions within this thread. Therefore, i didn't want to stage a defense of him without legitimate groundwork to do so. I just sort of visioned, "BeeBs defended him without any new evidence when Kaziocore role claimed". Second, I wanted to make claims about the evidence itself rather than what the evidence implied. Therefore, I wasn't commenting on D3mon, simply the nature of the evidence and its role in this game. I like this reaction and I think it serves as a good compliment to mine. I'll restate that rather than making you search through those oh so terrible paragraphs; I thought that Kaziocore would be a townie because it seemed to make more sense to me that if he was scum he wouldn't have to use his power role on the next night to prove it and/or use it to the benefit of the town to demonstrate its legitimacy. However, thinking more about that now, that would be a pretty difficult thing to ask and then bank on when its potentially the last day. I think both of these gut feelings are just flip sides of a coin?

I tend to write that way pretty much always, more wordy than I need to be. I'll work on being more concise, it is a skill I need to work on anyway. However, I do believe, dense as it may be, that there is significant access to my thoughts within that post and others. So while it may be wordy, it is nevertheless legitimate. The reason I went out of my way to make the claim is twofold. First, because I do not want to fall into the precedent of defending someone without any evidence. Like I tried to explain, if Kaziocore's evidence is D3mon's profile visits then there is no way to really defend him within the realm of his actions within this thread. Therefore, i didn't want to stage a defense of him without legitimate groundwork to do so. I just sort of visioned, "BeeBs defended him without any new evidence when Kaziocore role claimed". Second, I wanted to make claims about the evidence itself rather than what the evidence implied. Therefore, I wasn't commenting on D3mon, simply the nature of the evidence and its role in this game. I like this reaction and I think it serves as a good compliment to mine. I'll restate that rather than making you search through those oh so terrible paragraphs; I thought that Kaziocore would be a townie because it seemed to make more sense to me that if he was scum he wouldn't have to use his power role on the next night to prove it and/or use it to the benefit of the town to demonstrate its legitimacy. However, thinking more about that now, that would be a pretty difficult thing to ask and then bank on when its potentially the last day. I think both of these gut feelings are just flip sides of a coin?

((Sorry if this post is sort of difficult to follow, I just read those posts and started writing without much forethought. It's just sort of stream of consciousness as I was thinking about things.)) Well, I think that is sort of the missing link. We've been hard pressed for a power role for support and for any kind of evidence. I am concerned about one thing, it seems rather unsavory. It is an unlikely coincidence, I guess, but it seems like if is in in fact truly evidence of his scumminess that it should somehow be out of bounds. I'm thinking he could have viewed his profile as a step in sending him a PM, which seems sort of like what Kaziocore would have been implying. However, that wasn't something that was said in this thread and all game discussion should happen in this thread. I am NOT bringing this up as a defense of D3mon, its just sort of my gut feeling. However, what has been seen can not be unseen. I wish that Kaziocore had made some more subtle indications throughout the game. Something to point to that could say, here I told you so earlier. I think he did a great job of outlining his thinking in light of his claim and definitely gives more merit to his sudden change of heart about D3mon going into later days. @Kaziocore: FightingOkra asked this also, you had a one use power that can no longer be used right? So you are now effectively a generic townie role? Also to spell it out in case I misunderstood, there is either A) a doctor that prevented the mafia NK when you killed Tracker OR B ) both you and the mafia targeted the same person and the flavor text simply supports that you got to him first. I think that flavor text is positive support for your role claim in general, not necessarily either of these cases however. As to D3mon's response, certainly visiting profiles does not make someone mafia. I visited a bunch of your guy's profiles when I started playing, I hope that doesn't come back to haunt me. I have to agree with this, while it doesn't alone demonstrate that they might be mafia, and he's right Kaziocore did also visit them, the timing and the visits do both seem pretty strangely coincidental. I think there is a little more to his last line as well, sparse of a defense as it may be. Kaziocore's role claim is coming at a time when he had been pegged to be mafia on a 50/50 chance to D3mon. He has more or less played a trump card to this. Interestingly though, if I was trying to role claim to avoid being lynched I probably would not hint (let alone out right say) that my power role had expired, which is why that earlier question asked by FightingOkra and myself is important. It sounded like he is now generic, which means if we were on the fence before about lynching Kaziocore, it would technically not make us any worse off in terms of 50/50 between him and D3mon. (I use 50/50 loosely here, it just seemed like some of us were leaning to one of them.) Either we lynched an expired power role (thinking that he potentially lied) or we lynch a generic townie (thinking he was scummy), hoping they are scum. I have to think that Kaziocore would have thought of this sometime in his quite long role claim post if he was only claiming for the sake of saving his own skin. At this point I have to sympathize with Kaziocore. It seems like a legit claim and certainly adds some fluidity to his semi sporadic conclusions going on into D2 and D3. However, his evidence is not gathered from any sort of in game material which not only seems a little out of bounds to me, but also is only coincidental and doesn't really allow us to build an argument. I wanted to end this post saying, "this might be as close as we get to following the cop", but I think that would be a trap to fall into. Kaziocore isn't a cop, nor is he pretending to be. He hasn't supplied any extra evidence because of his power role, in fact he killed a townie with it! So, while I think its helpful to know where we stand a little bit, Kaziocore's role claim isn't all that helpful. I guess it just doesn't give me a whole lot of incentive to vote for D3mon. Please do not misunderstand me, if D3mon turns out to be scum this post was not intended to be a defense of him. In fact, I don't think it would be all that coincidental if Kaziocores notice of his profile visits does indicate his scumminess. However, I just don't think it is all that conclusive either. Sure its evidence, but it's coincidental and isn't something we could build a case on to help us identify more scum. D3mon might get my vote because of this, but on principle of not voting without better evidence he might not. On the other hand, I did earlier say we have to think about lynching a scum now because we might not have another chance to do it. So in the interest of not planning too far ahead and just taking our best bet on keeping the game alive, D3mon might be that best bet at the moment.

I guess those guys had some good posts a couple days ago, I think I just have a lot of extra time on my hands right now.

When I was talking about reaching I was referring to you post about Tracker. I remember reading your rationale, I guess I just don't agree that it was really solid justifications considering the outcome is all. About having more of a reason than anyone else, I don't think that any of your reasons were uniquely yours. Anyone could cite those reasons, although I do appreciate you doing so. I certainly didn't mean to suggest that you were playing improperly at all. Like I said, I don't really suspect you to be mafia all that much either. When I mentioned having some backbone, I just think it's unfortunate that we've lost townies because of votes based on inactivity rather than something a little more empirical. I was just trying to check in because you said you were going to do some reading and post more of your thoughts and I thought that would be helpful since you're sort of on the chopping block, although maybe lower on the list, after yesterdays voting. Similarly, I wish Kaziocore or D3mon would post something, we haven't heard from them for a little while, but we've sure been discussing them a lot.

I'm wondering why you both think because they are squabbling they mustn't be on the same side. I'm feeling its more like a show. They showed very similar suspect lists closer to the beginning of the game until their relationship turned sour when Kaziocore accused D3mon of too little activity. This argument that "player x is posting too little, therefore they should be lynched" has been the poison that lynched two townies, at least in large part. I really don't want to buy this going into later days. The way I see it, they had similar suspect lists and they're trying now to distance themselves. Furthermore, it isn't as though their disagreement has been over anything substantial; It's simply "no you!" back and forth. I agree with this and mentioned it in one of my earlier posts. If we have given out a free pass this game, it's certainly been to Fighting Okra. His vote record indicates scuminess, but again, he hasn't been on the organizing side of any of that. It really does seem like he's just voted for the wrong person at the wrong time. However, his response recently when D3mon brought it up was weak at best. @Fighting Okra: I'm interested in what you have to say after reading the rest of the posts. I'd be nice if we could get a little backbone from your vote, or simply just your suspicions, this time. We don't have any time left to "reach". I've done my best to stay away from gut calls this game. It's gotten us or could get us into a lot of trouble. In accord with my earlier statement, I think the inactivity argument has already dug us a pretty deep hole. However, something about this just seems off to me. It's not vote worthy or anything and it isn't based on the fact that he's leaving, it just seems like a strange way to say, "sorry guys, I'm out." It just rubs me the wrong way for some reason.

I couldn't have said this better myself. Except, I don't know that it's obvious 3/4 aren't scum. I find it unlikely, but I don't think its that unusual. Without power roles claiming and without a whole lot of other collected evidence, as I pointed out earlier we might just be letting this stuff slide to easy. D3mon and Kaziocore pointed out who they didn't like on the first day and now both those targets are dead. Here we see them together again. This I'm beginning to disagree with. It wasn't until today, after drawing some suspicion, that they started to squabble with each other. While I think I recall Kaziocore nodding at some suspicion earlier, I think there is also voting evidence and FOS evidence to suggest that these two had similar interests. Can you explain this relationship a little better? Is this just in your eyes or is there something more concrete to back this up? I couldn't quite catch it from your explanations. I think my biggest question, if it is evidence more than your feeling is, does it go the other way. Can we implicate D3mon if we find that KevinH is scum. However, unfortunately, this being the last day these sort of connections are a little moot. If we don't lynch the right person it's not going to matter who they were connected to because we'll loose. So, either way I don't think it should be our entire focus to think to far ahead when closure could be so close at hand. KevinH, you still have not explained why you think we still have a cop/doc in our midst. I have asked that you explain this multiple times and I think it is still quite relevant. If we do have a cop, do you still suggest we follow them at this point in the game? Should we nudge them to come out? I asked in my last post if we should have some discussion on this and no one acknowledged it. Do people think its not worth it at this point, that its a lost cause, simply that there isn't one with the town or that its likely enough that we go into another day and we don't want to leave them vulnerable.