Martino

That math is horribly wrong. How on earth can we have a less than one percent chance of coupling scum together if we have only 13 players? Let's assume we have 3 scum in 13 players, we lynch a townie today and we put everyone else randomly in a room. It doesn't matter in which room the first scum ends up, so for simplicity let's put him in room 1. Then there is a 2/11 chance that one of the other two scum is the first other player that was put into that room. If instead a townie get's put into that room, there is a 2/10 chance that one of the other scum is the third player in that room. Assuming that we put yet another townie this leaves 2 scum and 7 townies for the other 3 rooms. For simplicity lets put scum number two in room 2. Then we have a 1/7 chance that the final scum is the second person in this room and a 1/6 chance that he is the third person in this room. Adding all together, we have a 2/11+2/10+1/7+1/6 chance that we put scum together in a room. Or about 69%. Those odds don't look so bad to me.

Yes, we need to start picking rooms now. The 48 hours is never going to be enough if we have to do it in order. About the no lynch vs lynch. I'm strongly in favor of lynching. First of all, we gain absolutely no information from voting no lynch. Secondly, we greatly increase the chance of a nightkill because the scum will be much more tempted to kill if they are in a room with 4 than when they are in a room with 3. Finally, we have much worse odds of finding the scum if a nightkill happens (assuming that one scum will be in the room with 4 players).

While I like the hybrid better than no list, I would still prefer the list to minimize the chance of any townie errors. So my vote goes: Pro List Anyway, the hybrid idea just got the majority, so I suppose we'll have to use that.

While I don't understand why he posted a list, it has certainly not been proven time and time again that a list is not beneficial for the town. First of all, the information we will obtain from this moving pattern is very limited at best. We allow people to be in only 4 different rooms and we have fixed the number of people that should be in each room to 3(unless we go for a no lynch strategy then there are 4 in one room. But even in this game I don't think that a no-lynch is beneficial to us). None of the rooms are adjacent and we don't have any information about the room items/bonuses yet. So basically we are offering people 4 identical alternatives. What information are you going to extract from that? What incentive would the mafia have to not just use a random number generator and chose their room in that fashion? You say you want people to explain why they chose a certain room, but chosing a room is completely different from voting for someone. If you vote for someone you either believe they are scum, or you are scum and have other motives to vote for them. Because there is a difference between pro town players and scum there, we have a chance to pick up on who is scum. For the room selection, I don't see any difference between the scum and pro town players. I expect that neither will have any special reason to pick a room. Certainly not on day1.

No, there is no way to check what the outcome of the random number generator was. You can just make up any list and claim the order was determined by the random number generator. I would be in favor of either using the sign up order or letting someone we all consider a townie make the list. Actually thinking about it some more, I prefer the second way of making the list. Everyone already knows the sign up order. So if the scum doesn't like the order, they can just vote against based on other arguments, whereas if they like the order they can vote for. So we would first have to agree upon one person making the list before he can publish the list. I would nominate Narsis, as his splitting up in 4 factions that cannot reach eachother at night is clearly a pro town strategy.

Still, why risk a townie making a genuine mistake and getting lynched? What kind of evidence do you expect to get from people moving to certain rooms? If the scum choses to kill, we will only have 2 suspects. Those will have both moved to the same room. So what will be the difference? Also, later on what kind of evidence do you expect to get from this? The scum who made the kill will have outed himself and be dead. The others will have had no reason to behave differently from a townie since they were not the ones who were going to kill.

I think allowing people to chose their own room is a recipe for disastre. If we simply assign everyone to a room, then everyone who is not in the room they should be in has something to explain. Otherwise, with people moving around, someone can just claim that he miscounted the number of people already in a room.

I'm really looking forward to this game. The locations add a whole new element to consider. As for the crashing, I'm assuming that yes we will crash even if we kill off all mafia before. However, by that time we would have won already, so it doesn't really matter. I doubt mole would kill us all in the plane crash and give us a loss after playing a perfect game. No. That would be kinda cruel.

/in

Falzis, did you get lucky killing me or did you know I would be going after you the next day? I was actually quite surprised the other did not: That made it obvious you were not a townie. The townie PM for reference: In the end, I am glad we won this in another way. Because, as I said before, I don't think this would have been the right way to win a mafia game. However, I really thought KevinH had been dropping hints from his townie PM, as it does not really make sense to drop hints from a pro town power role PM because we have no way of varifying them. So when KevinH started it, I questioned him on it and then it became obvious to me that both KevinH and Falzis were not townies. I contemplated outing that Falzis was not a townie on D1, but I decided against it because he could be a powerrole as well and in that case I wanted to give him the night. If he was scum, we would have to wait until D2 to lynch him anyway.

Actually, the last time I saw him post was: Narsis Posted On: Sep 14 2009, 05:42 AM I'd hardly call that MIA.

Now you got me confused. Earlier you told us that you had been dropping clues from your role PM in your early posts. Then you blamed me and a few others for not picking them up. If you are not a townie, how could we have picked them up? And that is just the main problem I have with you in this game. You've been making very little sense. One post you are voting for someone because someone said that you should, in the next you are going back to no lynch because someone else thought it was a good idea. In one post you are hinting to be a townie, in the next you are hinting to be a pro town power role. I'll also echo mole's statement regarding the Jester role. The thought that he could be a jester also crossed my mind. But I think it is a terrible role and I refuse to adapt my playstyle to that possibility.

I posted this shortly after voting for you. So it is not like I pretended to be certain that you were scum until you said my reason was weak. Also, I disagree that my initial reason was weak. You were acting weird and it was not in the advantage of the town. Finally, if you were a doc, you would die anyway, so you should have made the mafia waste the NK instead of making us waste our lynch. If you are a cop, you should have relied on the doc to save you tonight.

If you would have had a pro town role, you would have roleclaimed by now. I also believe that if you are the townie you implied to be, you would have been able to answer my question. So I am actually more certain that you are scum then I was when I voted.

Well, I'm assuming that the townie role pms are all different, because KevinH certainly disregarded the last line before my win condition.

I was referring to the advice given in your role PM.

I had disregarded those post as they seemed like the ordinary KevinH fluff(poetry/spam) in the early parts of the game. However, after rereading them, I think I do see what you were trying to say. Still, if you are going to use it as a basis to filter out scum, you should have made it more obvious and especially less ambiguous. Before I will unvote, I would like to know why you more or less disregarded the advice given to you? That being said, I am not too fond of this strategy. Yeah, it is a way to flush out some townies and perhaps a scum, but is this really in the spirit of the game? It is supposed to be about an uninformed majority versus an informed minority. If we are going to use the townie PM to our advantage, it will distrub the balance of the game without the scum being able to do anything about it.

To what exactly has his gameplay evolved? He is back at his no lynch vote, so not much has changed. Except that now he is no longer doing it because he feels it is the right thing to do, but because he believes it will give him the least amount of heat. So now we have KevinH not only employing a strategy that is in the advantage of the scum, but doing so just to save his own skin and not with the intent to help the town.

While I, obviously, play mafia to enjoy myself, I also play to win. Changing your opinion/actions competely each time someone disagrees with you is not getting us anywhere. Am I convinced that you are scum? No, but your line of play simply did not feel right. I was actually debating putting a second vote on theophilos to see what you would do. But then you already unvoted after a little pressure from CD.

vote KevinH You're all over the place. You've played mafia long enough to know that it is not about pleasing the other players. Yet, whenever someone even gives the impression that they might like you doing something, you've done it.

While being active is a good thing, clearing up accusations directed at others is not. Let's just assume for a moment that Kazio is scum. Now, he could have of course come up with the explanation you gave himself. However, there is also the possibility that he could not have made up a decent explanation. In the first case, your post did not change much, but in the latter you've given him an out. Basically, we are not gaining all the information we could if you clear up trouble for other players. No matter how logical your post is.

It was probably the most debated nightkill we had. Sir Jesus was convinced that Theophilos was a cop, while I didn't believe there would be another pro town power role. I instead wanted to lynch Aquinas or you because I felt it was clear that you were townies. Sir Jesus then selected you because he was certain that Aquinas did not have a power role.

It happens, sometimes you are just completely wrong. When you had 'seen the light and knew that sojourner was scum', you actually reminded me a lot of myself in the werewolves versus vampires game. On four consecutive days, I was 100% certain that i had really finally found the scum and I lead the town to lynching a townie for four days in a row .

I forgot to say that I really enjoyed playing this game. The mod did a good job and we found some great new mafia players .

Well, it was a difficult decision, but this is what happened: I logged in to find EM's roleclaim proposal. When I read that post, I was convinced that he was going down. While I knew he wasn't rolefishing(he really had no reason to, we were well on our way to win the game), that post certainly seemed like rolefishing. There had been little evidence against the other players until that point, so I was sure that half the town was about to attack EM. Since I was pretty certain that he was going down, I decided to be one of the first to vote for him and I was about to write my attack on EM. However, I then realised that there were at least a dozen other new posts. This is when I got a little worried. If there would already be a couple of votes for EM, my vote wouldn't do nearly as much to make me look like a townie. I mean, in my mind the case against EM was very obvious, so after a few votes it would have been clear that he was going down and thus any additional votes could have just as well come from a scum. So I read the first post from Aquinas. He lays out the case exactly as I perceived it and he votes EM. At that point, I was afraid that we were going to lose this game afterall. There were still a dozen other new posts, so I figured EM would be well on his way towards a lynch if he was not already lynched. But then I read the other posts and it turned out that most people believed EM's defense. They thought that it was a bad strategy, but they didn't think he was scum for it. EM even got Aquinas to unvote. That is were I had to make my first decision. I could have joined in with the others and say that it was a bad strategy but just leave EM be. However, I still felt that the case against EM was obvious and there were still a few townies who hadn't posted yet. Also, while Aquinas had unvoted, he clearly wasn't completely satisfied with EM's defense. If I didn't attack EM and if the other townies would log in and attack him, then I would be more suspicious. Sir Jesus had already posted and he more or less defended EM there. So I really didn't want a possible EM lynch to lead back to both Sir Jesus and me. That could have potentially cost us the game. So at that point I decided that I would be the one leading the lynch against EM. I figured that should give me enough goodwill to at least partially make up for the loss of EM. Remember that I was still reasonably certain that EM was going down with or without my help, so I might as well benefit from it. However, to my surprise, noone else seemed to find it that suspicious. I pulled Aquinas back on EM, but that was about it. So I decided to leave it be. I would just lay relatively low until the end of the day and see who would get lynched. This, however, did not work out the way I liked. Either Sir jesus or EM himself called me out on my inactivity and a little later someone else did as well. So I had to post something. I believe that at that point it was between KevinH and Falzis. I considered unvoting EM and switching to Falzis or KevinH. In the end, however, I decided that the cases against them were relatively weak, so I couldn't really switch over. Therefore, I decided to make another post attacking EM. I would just be repeating the points I made previously, so I didn't expect people to actually follow me this time. For some reason, however, this time I did convince half the town that EM was indeed scum. It was a case of circumstantial bussing if there is such a thing . I didn't intend to lead a lynch against EM when the game started or even when that day started. I was just presented with a scenario that didn't look good and I thought this was a good way to turn it in our advantage. Also, Theophilos, why didn't you roleclaim when you had three guilty investigations and EM turned out to indeed be scum? We all more or less agreed that there were 3 scum. So if your invenstigation would have been right, you could have won the game for the town by claiming there.