The Warrior

I know you back tracked on this but I still don't understand why you're so comfortable saying things like this? Do you even care if the names you offer up turn out to be town? But on D2 youll have no information like on D1, so lynch will be as random as on D2. So why you believe lynch on D2 is better than D1 lynch ? As ive already written: D1 no lynch D2 lynch gives us 4 lynch opportunities and if we miss all we lose on D6. D1 and D2 nolynch gives us one more day and 4 lynch opportunities: if we miss all we lose D7 D1 and D2 lynch gives us 5 lynch opportunities and if we miss all we lose D6 D1 no lynch D2 lynch is literally the worse option we can take. Then we either go with: 1) D1 and D2 no lynch. Give our JOAT's two nights to hopefully come up with something. In the meantime encourage everyone to actively post and discuss whatever ends up happening on these first two nights. 2) D1 and D2 lynch. Take the risk that we hit a JOAT or force them to have to role claim and have vote patterns to discuss as well even though they will be taken with a grain of salt. If we go for option 2 I think we need "force" everyone to vote for someone. Not voting shouldn't be allowed so we can at least get a read on what everyone is doing.

Deadline is in just under 24 hours. There are quite a few people yet to vote some of which have been pretty quiet recently. Does anyone have any other thoughts we should be considering today before the day ends tomorrow morning? @Rafay @STP - Do you have any thoughts about everything going on?

Brewers: *Looks at games on record* The pros are lynching on day 1 in this format and losing ~73% of the time. Can't believe I'm saying this but we should vote no lynch. Most people: Vote no lynch and hope town JOAT's get lucky. ABT: We aren't pros so we should ignore that sample. Ferastical: Here's a long strategy. Brewers: Our town isn't smart enough to go through with that. LWW: Lynch. Tony: *Throws out random name just because* Vote for them. Ferastical: I give up. Vote Brewers. I'd say that about does it. Very interesting that you distilled literally all of the nuance out of the argument against no lynch, but basically quoted brewers' full explanation for why we should NL. Makes you think... This was meant to be a joke. Read it as such.

Yes, so why didn't you? Because I'm town and didn't personally see the justification for voting for him? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we ended up lynching scum but I wasn't convinced at the time of the argument against him.

Um, wrong. There are other roles that are informed on the scumminess of players as they roam around at night So assuming Dontavian is including himself in the 2/3 wrong category, it must be 50% between The Warrior and Torres951. I can 100% confirm, whether or not I'm included on Dontavian's list, that I don't belong on your +2 list. I voted for Kevin1.0 almost entirely because of character name. Based off of Feast For Crows lore specifically I assumed (incorrectly) that a Martell would be scum since all revealed town at that time were Lannister aligned and the Martell's and Lannister's were at odds directly in Feast For Crows. Obviously that line of thought was proven wrong but I didn't think it was out of line to follow that line of thinking since Brewers' previous GoT games have done similar things. If I were scum it wouldn't make sense for me to die on that hill so early in the game. The risk of being in the spotlight that early certainly wasn't worth it. As for LWW, I had nothing to go off of personally and wasn't comfortable voting for him with no justification. I don't know how accurate Ferastical's analysis is here: But if accurate it would mean that MK and LWW were in the same mafia faction and would mean that I probably wasn't in that faction. If we assume that multiple scum factions exist, why wouldn't I want to latch on to LWW's lynch if I was scum? It would mean killing off a competing scum faction and make me look good for voting for scum.

Brewers: *Looks at games on record* The pros are lynching on day 1 in this format and losing ~73% of the time. Can't believe I'm saying this but we should vote no lynch. Most people: Vote no lynch and hope town JOAT's get lucky. ABT: We aren't pros so we should ignore that sample. Ferastical: Here's a long strategy. Brewers: Our town isn't smart enough to go through with that. LWW: Lynch. Tony: *Throws out random name just because* Vote for them. Ferastical: I give up. Vote Brewers. I'd say that about does it.

I think at this point we're waiting to hear more from Finster. We also need to figure out what is going on with the vote manipulation.

This game's day 1 is no different than any other game's day 1. We're having the same lynch or no lynch discussion that we'd have in any other game. The only reason this one feels any different at all is because we know that we only have 2 town power roles with which to gain any actual information. I don't think a day 1 lynch here will get us anything honestly. We have nothing to go off of and will probably just end up voting for the least active since they have the same chance to be scum as anyone else. So again it will just be taken with a grain of salt.

We've already seen one vote manipulation role (Kevin1.0) but it looks like we have another as well.

Is it possible that the "Strongman" attribute or whatever also applies on the voting system? How so? I'm not sure what you mean.

There is still some vote manipulation occurring. Does anyone know what it is?

Are the JOAT's likely to find anything tonight? No, but at least we have a chance for something to work with tomorrow. We have nothing to work with today and a lynch isn't likely to produce anything either. No one will take it with anything other than a grain of salt. I'd rather not risk outing a JOAT just to get "grain of salt information".

I think we need to hear what Rafay has to say about MK's accusation.

@lww - I get the argument to want to lynch but we are going to have very limited ability in this game to actually scum hunt with only having two JOATs. Vote analyzing will become more helpful as the game goes on but I’d rather not take the chance of lynching one of our only power roles or forcing them to claim on day 1. But for the sake of argument, let’s say we opted to lynch today and hit a VT (as the odds tell us we likely would). That leaves 14 players alive going into the night. 3 scum, 11 townies. Of those 11 townies 2 of them are JOATs. That gives the scum ~18.2% chance of killing one of our only power roles. Alternatively, if we choose not to lynch today, there will still be 15 players going into the night. 3 scum, 12 townies. Of those 12 townies 2 of them are still JOATs. That gives scum a slightly smaller ~16.7% chance of hitting one of our JOATs. The difference may only seem like ~1.5% but in a game with only two town power roles it benefits us if they stayed hidden as long as possible.

Any idea what he’s talking about, Rafay?

So you're claiming to be a tracker and you tracked Tony last night and got role blocked? Affirmative. Pretty sure that's how it works though, if you target a roleblocker as an Investigative role, you get RBed yourself? That's why I wanted to make sure that there were no other RBers in the game too. You targeting a roleblocker wouldn't role block you. You only get role blocked if the roleblocker targets you. You role blocked Ferastical last night? I'm confused. I thought you just said that you targeted Finster on night 3:

So you're claiming to be a tracker and you tracked Tony last night and got role blocked?

Three mafia games going at the same time? Phew.. Interesting..

Indeed. I think there is still some manipulating occurring as well. Interesting claim. A couple questions for you though: 1) What do you mean the role block failed? Is that how a result was given to you? 2) How did you conclude that it means Finster is a Strongman? There are other roles that could have potentially caused a similar result like Ascetic or Commuter. If anyone wants to CC, now's the time. Roleblocker is a common mafia role. In a role madness game with multiple scum factions I don't think it would be impossible for one to exist in multiple factions for protective purposes.

Rafay’s claim would be a strange one to make up. I laughed pretty hard at this.

@Dontavian - So did Brewers get your vote wrong or is something else going on there too? @Kevin2.0 - Do you have any thoughts right now about anything going on? Also, do you know why you were confirmed town by the mod?

Unless I missed something I don’t believe that he was cleared as town so it is possible that he’s a SK but I don’t see any reason to believe that at this time.

That doesn’t explain how he would know what he was claiming to know though. Why would Brewers specifically tell ABT he saw two attacks? Doctors don’t get results like that. The person either lives or dies. They aren’t specifically told anything like that. And if it is true, that means ABT’s only “evidence” related to the entire situation yesterday was a random post that Tony made and eventually clarified as being conjecture. That would be an incredibly reckless argument for a Town Doctor to make. If he had succeeded in lynching me based off of that, you would have seen that I am in fact town and then all fingers would have pointed at ABT today. Why would a town doctor put himself at risk like that with no actual information? It just doesn’t add up and doing something like that just isn’t ABT’s style.

That would be an interesting twist I suppose since its assumed he’s a vig but we don’t have anything to actually base that off of currently. @Tony - Two questions: 1) Why did you throw out that random comment about lww, abt, and I probably being scum? And 2) Why didn’t you step in to correct Ali sooner when he was using your comment as one of the major pieces of “evidence” to try to get me lynched? Also, wait a minute.. it just dawned on me that ABT’s revealed role was “Doctor”. How in the hell did he claim to have any knowledge at all about who visited MK on the night he died? Ali either straight up lied (which I can’t believe since he was town) or there is another role that messed with Ali’s reveal.

So you actually targeted Tony with your Vig shot but it hit Velocity instead?