Big Ego

Hippo, when I first read your post I thought it could just be that Robert is trying to move pressure around/increase activity which can be very good for the town.. but then I noticed he never targeted iSocialism.. and that, I find very interesting.. he could just be making a gambit. Hiding in the open. Who would suspect the guy most active, the guy trying to help. (all the while knowing his targets are Townies) It still doesn't prove his guilt, but it is quite the coincidence, and may be the best info we get today. btw, I didn't target anyone, was busy the last day or two.. and Kevin!! Color the text that says it's now Night! I may have just skimmed passed it.. didn't realize it was night until just now (and now it's day lol)

Even if they're active, they tend not to say/add much. If the townies are the inactive ones, we're screwed either way. So, kinda makes sense to go ahead and try to hit inactives, instead of hitting each other. (Which also happened a lot last game, active Towns all trying to lynch other active Towns)

Well played, Mafia. "When in doubt take Shamus out" - lol iSocialism I love it!

Is that why you're making the noob scum mistake of being quiet until under pressure then?

Unvote Vote Masta Shamus

You can, Rafay. Not sure it will have much affect either way tho. I, for one, targetted Hippo, hoping I would protect him and not kill him. Apparently I'm not the Vigiliant (Quack?)Doctor, but that's pretty much all this tells me.. and even then, I dunno, could've been countered by someone. In the meantime, doing nothing is a certain loss for the Town.. so to put some pressure on Lyner and to encourage activity.. Vote Lyner

fixed YAy! Thank you Shamus!

*climbs into a hospital bed* Wake me up when it's time to perform surgery.

I agree, Marvel FTW! Now, if only I could vote for it. Your forums say I don't have permission ;(

When I said we should post who we plan to target, you said we should post suspect lists instead. 1 and 1/3. The Iron City & Plan 9. I am experienced at life & politics tho, and some of that carries over in this game. How many games have you played, Robert?

Meh. You did muck things up a bit IMO. You wanted No Lynch and said we should all make lists instead of saying who we'll target.. but there isn't much of a list to make when the game just started and there is no info. You are definitely right about one thing, you can't be faulted for other people's lack of activity. More people gotta post, take stances, help hash out a plan & get on the same page.

It could still work, with some luck. There's a 25% chance of hitting Mafia.. and only the absolute worst case scenerio would Town loss tonight (but it is possible, I think).. it will be all up to those surviving tomorrow. At this point, I'd be happy with that plan of action. I'd be happy with any plan of action that a majority will actually participate in.

I had just started my first sentence and accidently hit enter, so please excuse me but I'm editting this post. Orginial Post "Restart with 1" Editted Post - Great, restarting with 1 less townie, virtually no new info. Seems either not many people used their actions, and if they did they cancelled each other out. I imagine most of us still have no clue what we are. But.. oh well, can't change the past. I don't like the situation Rafay/Robert has put us in.

Ok.. rechecking some of the math.. No NA + Lynching gives us 22%, 29%, 40% chances. NA + No Lynching gives us.. (the math on this gets complex, due to the roleblocker, nature of the CPR doc, etc, so I'm gonna guesstimate) a 19%ish chance, but we get 2 of them. So that's 19%, 19%.. then the next day, *assuming Mafia doesn't get lucky and kill Quack or CPR), they'll probably have something like 30%ish chance each. So 19%/19%, 30%/30% (and after that, we're probably dead) ... The differences aren't that dramatic. I think, maybe, using NA is slightly better? Because there is so much to factor in, it is hard to say. I'm not that great at math, and even if I was, it could still take a while to try to factor & compare all the variables & what not. If we did share who we are targeting, that really could help our chances tomorrow. My only concern is that it also could help Mafia identify the Quack/CPR and target them. Though N2 is where it's ALL gonna go down. There probably won't be a N3 if we do it wrong/don't get lucky.. Only person I feel is probably town right now is Hippo. Most everyone else I'm neutral on. Suspicious of Rafay & Robert.

lol oh.. well then, my bad for real. Thought you were directing that comment towards me. Carry on then xD *crosses fingers* I'd really love to lynch a scum one of these days.

What was a ridiculous statement? Saying that TBR flip-flopped on a position? How is it ridiculous when it is factual? It would be ridiculous if I said it proved he is scum, but I haven't said that. I just noted it. Excuse me for reviewing Day 1 and noting voting patterns and any inconsistencies I noticed in an attempt to help the town. My bad.

Well, it's pretty much a toss-up between Imran & Mario. Deadline is tomorrow I think. I feel I can't wait any longer and need to make a choice.. With no big revelations since my last vote, and all things considered, I still feel the best choice is Mario. Sorry Mario, nothing personal. There is always the next game. o/ Vote Mario

How do you not vote on a hunch? Do you only vote based on detective searches and even if its a hunch that they are telling the truth about being detective this entire game is hunches. Are you asking me specifically? I'm not the one who said I was uncomfortable voting on a hunch. Nor am I condemning TBR for voting based off a hunch. I'm just pointing out that TBR said he was uncomfortable lynching based off a hunch, but later that day, and the next morning, supported lynching based off hunches. If you want to know more about it you'll have to ask him.

Hmm.. could we discern who was the weak Doctor's target, if he does die on a Mafia, by revealing our targets tomorrow? Or should we reveal targets before tonight? Or should we stick with no moves? Because aside from Robert's somewhat optimistic math, most of us agree Doctor moves without claiming who is targeted either before or after, is very risky and could cause us to lose really fast.

Yeah but that's still a hunch, and before that you said you didn't like the idea of lynching based of a hunch. Just sayin

In general, I agree with you. Moving pressure around can help get us more info and make a more informed decision. We are starting to run low on time though, only about 2 days left until the deadline.

Glad you are open to the idea, Hippo. Math doesn't lie. The towns best chance is the town's best chance. Anyone trying to disrupt our discussions to figure out what our best chance is, we should be suspicious of. *cough* Rafay *cough* Which, I messed up a repeated one of my analysis. Did No Agreement + No Lynch twice. (the 2nd and 4th analysis) Here is No Agreement + Lynch Day 1: Day 1 - 22% chance. Day 2 - 1 bad Doctor move N1: 33% 2 bad Doctor moves: 40% 3 bad Doctor moves: 50% chance/we lose. So, lynching D1 with no agreement is rather risky. It seems no matter what we do, everyone agreeing not to use their night abilities will give us more chances. (this is because if we do try our not abilities, we're more likely to kill people than we are to save people, this equation should be obvious, since Mafia can only target 1 person. Thus, there is only a 11% chance of a Doctor making the right move).. Unless everyone claims who they will target, trying our luck with night moves is way, way, way more likely to hurt us than to help us. If everyone will agree to not try their luck, I don't care that much if we lynch Day 1 or not. Which, I know, I'm sorry for making a fuss about it and then saying I don't care, but I just realized how much more important it is that Doctors don't make bad moves vs whether or not we lynch day 1. I'd still prefer Agreement + Lynch tho, personally.

TBR never said Imran & Mario followed KevinH's votes, nor did he provide evidence of it. I also called out TBR on flip-flopping in Day 1 on whether he wanted to lynch on Day 1 based on a hunch. http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/50943-rf-01-day-2-iron-city-mafia/?p=775361 Also, I never said I unvoted on Mario to avoid looking scummy with Imran. It took me a minute to even realize what you were suggesting, the worry of looking scummy by being on the same wagon as Imran was so far from my mind. I never said that, don't put words in my mouth, you're making stuff up. I unvoted Mario because I do think he may just be a newb Townie making mistakes, and because there was many days left before the deadline.. I didn't want another person or two to jump on and insta-lynch Mario.

Okay actual math time: If everyone will agree not to use your Doctor actions which may or may not kill the person you want to protect, and may kill you yourself.. Then we will have a 22.22% chance on day 1. If we Lynch of town, tomorrow we would be at 28.57 percent chance. D3 we would have a 40% chance. btw if we get 1 scum, that means the Mafia has to get us down to 1 townie to win. That's 3 chances to lynch before we're screwed. ***** If we do not agree to not try our Doctor abilities, but do not lynch on Day 1. Assuming the worst (all the Doctor moves turn out bad for town, which is a good possibility).. then we could lose 4 people tonight. Which would put us at 5/2, 40% chance on day 2. We get 1 chance to lynch this way. ***** If we do agree not to use our Doctor abilities and also do not lynch. Day 1 we have 0% chance, since we're not lynching in this scenario. (it would be 22% if we did, ofc) Day 2 we would have a 25% chance. An increase so small, the difference from a Day 1 lynch is all but non-existent. There's still a 75% chance that we lynch a townie, but surely by then people will want to lynch someone, or try their luck with night abilities. I think it's safe to assume at least 2 people will die on N2, even if we go this route. Day 3 we would 33% chance, possibly a 40% chance by then. In a worst case scenario (all the Doctor moves go bad), we could lose at the start of Day 2 with this path. In this version, there's 1, (maybe, but probably) 2 chances to lynch before we're screwed. ***** If we don't agree to not try our luck with night abilities, and we also don't lynch D1. Day 1 we have 0% chance, would be 22% if we did lynch. 1 Doctor move goes bad: 28.57% chance on D2, probably 40% chance on D3. 2 Doctor moves go bad: 33% chance on D2, 40% chance on D2 if we're lucky. We could have already lost. 3 Doctor moves go bad: 40% chance on D2, if we fail then we've definitely lost by D3. Even in the best case scenario, we only get 2 chances to lynch before we're doomed. Worst case we only get 1 chance. ***** In conclusion: If everyone will agree not to try their luck with night abilities, we should go ahead and try to lynch every day.. and since the Doctor abilities have such a high chance of going wrong, I think this may be the best course of action. Though, honestly I'm still kind of just guesstimating, to be more certain I'd have to do even more math. Plus there are some variable that are pretty huge, and hard to calculate. (and I'm bad/not very knowledgeable at advanced math) Anyway, I think it is important we consider all this. Townies should talk and try to make sure we are making the best choices based on probabilities and math. If we just do things based on our feels, we're probably doomed. Edit: If everyone will agree not to use their abilities Night 1 or Night 2, then no lynching Day 1 might not be that bad... but I'd be rather amazed if we all got through 2 nights and no one tried using their night action. It's just such a big variable, it worries me.

So far the only person my "stats and what-not" seems to have had an effect on so far is you, who went from No Lynch D1 to quick Lynch Big Ego and shut him up.