Big Ego

Emu, sometimes I may leave the window up but I am making posts daily, and sometimes rather informative ones. Like I posted with evidence that Imran & Mario both followed KevinH's votes around. Sure, anyone could find that info if they went back and did the research, but I actually did it, and posted it. I also unvoted Mario so we could hear more, and encouraged others who have made very few posts to come speak up and share.

OMGUS vote. Are you assuming that a Doctor kills themselves? (or someone else, in the case of the Quack?) because the Mafia should only get one NK. If weak Doctor kills themselves on a Mafia, we won't know who they targeted unless they say so before hand, but they can't really say so beforehand because we don't know our precise roles. So, maybe we should all say who we will target beforehand, and make sure we all target different people? "We can also check who got nightkilled and make a lynch based off of that as well as activity." Checking who got nightkilled gives us literally 0 info as far as I can see. Activity can't tell us much either, it certainly can't tell us anything with certainty. "It helps us because a random lynch has a 22% chance of success. If one town dies,it goes up to 25%. When two town die, it goes up again to 29%. I would be willing to gamble on a 29% chance to kill a Mafioso. If we mislynch then, we get a 33% chance to correctly lynch a Mafioso but the game is in jeopardy." So you think we should just wait until two townies die first? It just doesn't sit well with me. You all should be able to understand my dubious feelings about this plan. It just sounds like something the Mafia would want. A 29% chance isn't really a whole lot better than a 22% chance.. then if we miss the 29% shot we're almost certainly dead. Whereas now.. we could have a 22% shot, and then maybe another 33% shot. That's better than a single 29% shot.. I think. Dammit, you guys might force me to do actual math later to try to figure this out. I generally just guesstimate in my head, but I'm pretty good at it. Also want to point out in the other games, I guessed Ovid was a Minister, KevinH was scum, and that EM, if he wasn't scum, that he'd be a vanilla townie, and he was. So I wouldn't be very quick to dismiss my ideas. If I do die tonight, or if I'm lynched today for having an unpopular opinion, I just want to say.. watch out for Rafay. Got real bad vibes coming from him.

Yeah let's just wait until it's down to 4 people, then our chances will be much better. We'll have a 50% chance of lynching a Mafia then.. but oh wait, at that point, the Mafia has already won. Don't forget the win conditions KevinH posted. If Mafia controls 50% of the town, they win. Tomorrow, we will have no new information that actually indicates who the Mafia is. The only way our chances will be better, is that it will be 6 townies and 2 Mafia... but that is not how to win. Should we not lynched Day 2 as well? Because in the Plan 9 game we still lynched a town Day 2. I'm sure townies are still, very, very often lynched in Day 2.. but we have no choice. If we never lynch, we lose. Plain and simple. Seriously, if we all vote no-lynch right now, all we're doing is basically restarting the game with 1 less townie, no new info. How does that help us? Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm not understanding.. but, I'm pretty sure mathematically, I'm right.

D1 lynches do seem to rarely help the town, but then again D2 lynches don't seem much better. In the meantime, Mafia will kill 1 person a night. The Quack Doctor could kill a townie, the Weak Doctor might kill himself. Even if we don't lynch day 1, the Mafia could potentially win by Day 3. "Not a big threat" my ass. Vote Rafay edit: I meant to say D2 lynches DON'T seem much better. We still generally lynch a townie D2, so what's the difference?

I want to host a game in the not too distant future as well.

I will play but only if the game starts much later on, after some of these other games finish.

I may be a little less active than usual, allergies hit me hard and fast yesterday. Damn eyes/head are throbbing, nose getting red and raw.. I'm already a rather indecisive person, this is not making it any easier to think and (try to) make the right decision. I would really love to hear more from Raugln, Spaztik, Ovid and Preston. Especially Spaztik, I know you're new to Mafia (on here), but so are a lot of us.. and we can still find observations, opinions, theories. I'm not sure I've seen one post from you so far (in either game) that isn't either fluff or a vote. Surely you can find SOMETHING to add.

If you need someone I'll do it

Hmm.. so you're saying you're a townie who is just making mistakes. A very plausible defense. I'm not really assuming though in that way.. I'd describe it more as guessing. We have to pick someone. Especially when there seems to be quite a few people with Night Kill actions, probably 2 whole scum teams. I'm pretty sure their powers will let them win if we never lynch anyone. So I re-read the thread about 2 nights ago, late at night, and promptly forgot most of it. So I re-read Day 1 just now. Here notes that I find interesting (not necessarily in chronological order): KevinH - voted against Raugln. (no one joins him in this) KevinH - voted against me alongside emudevelopment, Electric Mango, mariomariom190. KevinH - switched vote to be against Lord Hippo (who we know was town now), alongside Spaztik Muffin, Raugln Bludhaven, iSocialism, TBRaiders, Imran, Mario and Electric Mango. (Imran, Mario & EM all coming in after KevinH) KevinH - switches finally to Electric Mango. Imran & Mario both follow. People who voted against KevinH - Big Ego, Kazio, Emu Whispers from the beyond the grave: EM & Lord Hippo both voted for Samoose and were very suspicious of him. In honor of our fallen townies, FoS Samoose. Also, Imran was actually somewhat active in Day 1. TBR - Said he thought there was a good chance EM was scum but doesn't want to lynch of a hunch. Later encourages someone to put EM out of their misery, and starts a wagon on Imran based of a hunch early in Day 2. iSocialism - tired of looking back through the thread for details at this point.. but there have been quite a few random votes against him which makes me doubt he is on a Mafia team. I find it a little more likely he would be either town or a loner role such as SK. Might do more later but there was like 14 pages in Day 1, it's a lot to go through. There are still quite a few days left, so for the moment I will unvote, but Mario, you're still pretty high on my list.

"I was just joking, I'd never actually lynch you" ~ says the guy who put the final nail in EM's coffin.

A classic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6ljFaKRTrI

Since I'm still alive in both other games I think I'll sit this one out. (also since there are limited spots)

I am rather suspicious of Imran & Lyner.. and they do seem to be working in tandem. Yet, Imran says he believes I'm town. Lyner (and iSoc for that matter) both backed me up some when I was the lead wagon day 1. TBR has made some of the most informative and helpful posts. We now know almost without a doubt there are 2 scum teams. (assuming Rafay kept the same format, and he probably did) I think neither Ovid or Spaz have posted Day 2. Spaz has only made like.. 2 or 3 posts, so almost nothing to go on there. Mod if you can please prod those who've yet to post. Emu seems to be townie. Raugln I just don't know about, not a whole lot to work with post-count wise either. Kazio is inactive. Samson I am a little suspicious of, a fair bit of aggression and randomness.. but overall I still get a town vibe. I think that just may be Shaman's style. That leaves... Mario. If Mario is scum, he is playing way better than last time. He's claiming he's town, he's playing to win. I almost want to reward him for that and give him the benefit of the doubt.. but, when the hard choice has to be made.. He's been supporting almost every wagon, he keeps trying to get me lynched for no apparent reason. Even if what did happened last game didn't happen, he's definitely be near the top if not at the top of my list. So all in all, if I absolutely must choose, I am going with Vote Mario for now. e: Made my bolded words blue, so they can be seen better in this wall of text.

I suggested someone protect Hippo last night. Did no observer observe him either? Geez, c'mon guys. We knew he'd be a high-value target for scum (unless he himself was scum, ofc) Oh well, nothing to do now but keep marching forward. To respond to Mario's accusation, I didn't hold any resentment for Hippo voting against me. I suggested someone use night actions to defend him, you think I'd still try to attack him that same night? I'm as surprised as anyone, maybe more surprised, because I thought for sure townies would move to defend or observe him. Also, I voted for KevinH early and only changed my vote b/c no wagon developed and I had to support a wagon on EM to defend myself. KevinH was one of the ones who voted to lynch me. So, you all can be fairly certain I am not on KevinH's team. Now.. day 2.. what to do.. My top suspects: Raugln, Ovid, Imran. Raugln & Imran for reasons TBR stated. Ovid for not posting much (if any) poetry yet.. this is very unusual.. but, after being lynched last game and losing the huge posts he made in this game before it was reset.. maybe he's just not feeling it. I was about to add the 4th vote to Imran but Emu just did that for me. Don't want to add the 5th yet, b/c I want to give Imran a chance to respond before we lynch him. So instead I'll do nothing for the moment.

Need my Mafia!!!

Sorry EM, but better you than me. If you had pressed us harder to believe you had an important town role, might've backed off.. but right now I'm fairly convinced that if you're not scum of some sort, then your town role must not be very important. Maybe just pure vanilla town even. You're active, and I find the active people more threatening. So, all in all I think we've made a decent choice. (so long as EM doesn't turn out to be a strong power town role, that would suck. ) e: To clarify a bit, I don't want to discourage activity.. but I mean, getting an active scum who would try to mislead us is a great boon for townies. If we're gonna take a gamble in this round lynching day 1, I say we gamble big. (and b/c he doesn't seem to have a vital town role, the risk is small, the reward could be great)

I think Rafay already said that, basically, no one gets lynched unless it's a full-majority. So, whoever hits full majority first... I think. too lazy right now to go back and look

This is quite a riddiculous request. If he is town he has no info to give. Unless he's a power role in which case your begging for the mafia to hang him if he tells you. It seems a little fishy you would say this Unvote Vote KevinH You make a good point, although if there is a townie with an observe ability, we could see who (if anyone) attacked him. Also we might have a jailor who could jail him, but if he is a useful role that would also block his own ability. So it might be possible for him to claim and it help us, it also might help the town in the case that he's lying, it may help us sniff him out.

Any particular reason for that or are you just holding a grudge?

That's.. odd. Unless you're talking about the Mod. How would anyone know if you're innocent or not?

At least KevinH is being realistic and knows there is no real reason to be higher than 50/50 on me. All I did was encourage others to participate. Other people be tryin' too hard. Unvote Vote EM EM plz say stuff now to prove you're not scum. Show me how it's done.

If I were scum, it would've been a lot easier for me to just lay low and wait to strike at night. Instead I've been active and encouraged others to come out of the shadows and make moves so we have more to analyze. I could just be making a gambit, trying to hide in the open, but if that was my plan it has gone horribly wrong. xD Truth is, I am town.. but I don't think my role is super important. So I'm not too worried about getting lynched, my death may be equally valuable, if it helps reveal the scum.

Still glad you all voted finally. xD Let's get the show on the road!

Five people still yet to vote: Electric Mango, Lord Hippo, mariomariom190, Imran Ehsan and KevinH

That's all well and good but we couldn't see your motivation (which, you could still just be lying about), we just saw your very immediate support for him. You have to think about how it must've looked from our perspective. If you can do that, then you should see how we might be kinda suspicious. If you really aren't cheating, then in time our suspicions will fade. Your passion about this subject has made me a little less suspicious, but I don't count words for much. Words are cheap, ya know.