LordSunday

No you don't

XXV

I thought on this last night. Even though the numbers support the options I was contemplating, regardless we basically enter tomorrow in a LYLO situation. With that in mind, Imran is right. We should eliminate an SK today at all costs. Since my vote seems to be the one to decide now, between the two, I've made it clear my preference. To be clear, this does not change anything else I've said. Simply that since my preferred SK suspect is not going to be lynched, I must concede to hunt the other SK as he wishes. Tomorrow should be interesting... Vote: captainjf

Glad the town has at least woke up with less than a day to deadline... We seem to be careening towards a no-lynch anyways with a 3-way tie on votes. Imran and I have both made our points and while it could be entirely arbitrary it at least provided some blood into a game that is seriously benefitting the SKs anyways (no communication = no information).

You say that as you quote my reasoning for voting you and not the post right above where I openly explain every scenario. You're grasping at straws. In that post that you failed to quote I even explain what could happen if I'm wrong. Ya know, this part where I distinctly say: That doesn't sound to me like "guaranteeing" the odd-night would kill the even-night. But what does sound reasonable is trying to find any possible way to spin the fact that your entire strategy for today was split open and now you are in bind to figure out how to get rid of the other SK without then being your own easy lynch target. In fact, I probably could predict what your entire plan was: Today get the captain lynch who would likely pop even-night (before you try to again quote "cherry-picking," I've covered this is a likelihood, not a fact), and overnight you kill me while holding NE's ear. Tomorrow you use his suspicions of a quiet/inactive iSoc to seal lynch. Game over. iSoc could very well be an SK, and I even said in our neighbor thread last night that if he was then well played. But, if you are trying to insinuate I'm an SK myself, then put your money where your mouth is; because if you were town you wouldn't be trying to deflect my points as cherry-picking or irrelevant.

1) i agree with Imran that LordSunday appears to softly be pushing for a no-lynch, however i think a NO-Lynch plays into the evil doers hands, because then they can get another kill of a town, we as Town have to make sure of the party we need to lynch- i have a suspicion, but not decided as of yet Isoc's continued silence is hard to ignore, could be game play could be just not paying much attention to the game, Since I've made my commitment, let me circle back to my second post on this page, specifically where I said this: I had intentionally included the word slightly because I was suspicious of Imran at the time and didn't want to show too much of my hand. However, that withheld information is now more relevant. So, still working under the assumption Captain is the even-night SK: Let's say that we had followed Imran's wagon and lynched Captain. That means tonight Imran is able to "cherry pick" his kill to best benefit himself. The town "benefits" because sure we killed off one of the SKs, but we also have given him full control over the situation heading into D4. This is what I meant when I said that the even-night SK would benefit more from this outcome. Now, let's say that we had chosen to no-lynch as I absolutely suggested originally and also intentionally. Imran's wording is to try and convince us that the only outcome from that is another townie death, but that is more a scare tactic than anything, because the reality is it forces him into a difficult position. He obviously suspects Captain of being the even-night SK (I clearly do too), so he has to use his kill on captain. Since we no-lynched, this means entering D4 there would still be 3 town left alive with Imran. As Kevin confirmed he wouldn't be able to kill again until N5 barring another death, meaning he would have to push hard for a lynch without much to go on. Not having a kill last night made a quick and easy target that the majority of the town would easily be ready to vote on. But to try and do that without the even-SK in play would be much more difficult, especially since he'd need both of the other townies to jump onto the wagon he'd propose. Of course since I'm at, there is the possibility that either captain or Imran are townies and Imran/myself were wrong in our respective suspicions. In this case, tomorrow would depend on what the odd-night SK did tonight. If they killed the even-SK, then the town would just be back in the same boat as if we lynched captain, minus the slight difference that the town chose the kill instead of the odd-SK getting to plan it out. If they killed a townie, then whoever that remaining town member is would have no other choice but to force a no-lynch (the whole 1 town/2 SK scenario I had mentioned). And the final of those outcomes would be that we lynch Imran, and I am correct that he is the odd-night SK. There really isn't much more to say in this situation. We'd have no kill tonight, and tomorrow there'd be 3 town members with just even-night SK left. As for iSoc, I really do not know what to say there. Being he is my neighbor I had a natural level of suspicion towards him in the first days, but as my current vote and posts reflect, I think he's just really not paying attention to the game.

See what I actually find strange is that you just did the exact thing you're claiming I'm doing. Every single scenario you just listed bars one very important outcome, that the odd-SK targets the even-SK. With that post, I now feel comfortable enough with the decision I've been trending towards to go back to this... This was your first post on D2, followed up with the beginning of your second post. I said that barring us having a solid target for odd-night SK, the best choice was a no-lynch. But given all of today, I think there is a solid target. I think what you said above is exactly what happened. I think you killed Zacch thinking he was the other SK, and now here we are with you ignoring that very outcome because you don't want the town to force you to waste your kill tonight. If you read my no-lynch scenario completely you would've understood that was the point of it. The odd-SK would have to make the move on captain to try and knock out the potential even-SK. But that doesn't benefit you because then you'd potentially have to face a 3 strong town alone, with no kill that next night. Vote: Imran Ehsan

Am I inclined to feel those things are more likely than not? Yes. Does that mean I'm not considering other options? No. After I wrote out those four options for today, I don't think it matters. For the town the best option certainly is moving for the odd-night SK, and if there's no suspect for that then no-lynching. While a mislynch would obviously help them, the odd-night would get their greatest benefit from the other SK being lynched. I will be honest that I find it suspicious you either aren't seeing or refusing to acknowledge the benefit of those angles. Even though it's not a guarantee, you wouldn't be pushing a captain lynch unless you had reasonable suspicion of him being the even-night SK that failed to kill last night. While a town member would naturally want him lynched, a town member that takes a moment to think about it would realize that lynching him today helps the other SK more than it helps us. By pushing this hard I wonder if you're trying to use his potential slip to try and drive the town to helping eliminate the biggest threat to the other SK.

Working under the assumption that Captain is the even-night SK, let me expand on today's 4 possible outcomes slightly: Option 1) Town lynches Captain. Going into the night is 3 town/1 SK. Odd-night SK kills a town member. We enter D4 LYLO. Option 2) Town lynches odd-night SK. Going into the night is 3 town/1 SK. Captain cannot kill being even-night. We enter D4 with basically assured win (barring somehow captain's wild theory being correct that even-SK chose not to kill). Option 3) Town mislynches. Going into the night is 2 town/2 SK. At this point either captain or a town member is killed. If it's captain, we end up with the same D4 as Option 1, but we control who in town was killed. If it's another town member, enter my addendum below* Option 4) Town no-lynches. Going into the night is 3 town/2 SK. Either captain or town member is killed. Option 2 is ideal, Option 3 at 1T/2SK is least ideal. But given all options, it may be best for the town to force the subject and no-lynch if there isn't a solid suspect for odd-night. *Addendum: As per my understanding of the setup link in Kevin's original post, at 3 alive both SKs gain the ability to kill regardless of night. In a situation where there is 1 town and 2 SKs, the town's only choice for survival becomes to forego voting and force the game into night. This puts the two SKs in a very possible situation where they kill one another and the town wins by extension. Kevin are you able to confirm if that is implemented as per the wiki link you provided? IE at 3 or less town an SK can kill on any night.

This is a rather bold assumption. When I ran this scenario through my head it almost becomes better for the town. Not that we'd want to end up in this scenario but consider this: A town that is 2 SKs, 1 town is in a situation where the SKs almost put themselves in a lose-lose scenario. By that point we'd have 3 members left meaning the SKs become unlocked to kill on any night. That night they would both have a very critical decision to make. They either stab the other SK, or stab the town. But, if the other SK stabs them, then they now lose. It becomes a very interesting situation for the SKs and there is a more-than-decent chance in the night they stab one another leaving 1 townie remaining. The fact you chose to omit that consideration and want to push heavily on a basically-neutralized captain is somewhat interesting. If we lynch captain and he comes up SK we give the odd-night SK a perfect window. They will be able to plan a path using whoever they kill knowing that everyone else is town. Frankly, we could mislynch today and the SK may be forced to kill captain to avoid exactly the above, still leaving us in LYLO tomorrow and with town in control of the information we have. Why are you so keen to eliminate someone who currently only poses a threat to the other SK?

I agree there is a good chance of this. However, I would be open to voting elsewhere as the immediate threat tonight is the odd-night SK. If captain is the even-night, then he is harmless to the town tonight. This would truly have to be a wild strategy for one of the SKs to employ. It would be based on the assumption that both neighbor pairs spoke with one another to even leave open the possibility of claiming the neighborless one was inactive. Unfortunately for you captain I just don't see that as a viable thing. There is also the slight problem that I am confident from late yesterday that iSoc and I are the townie pair. Obviously while this can't be proven I still could not imagine a world where he would've benefited as SK from revealing me as his neighbor when he was ready to be hammered. Either way, my point is that while captain is worthy of suspicion and a very reasonable lynch target, we should spend today more focused on the immediate threat to tonight in the odd-night SK.

I agree the SKs are almost certainly acting on their own. iSoc and I both exchanged a message during the night, so neither of us seem to have been inactive either.

Going into the night I expected one of two outcomes: The more likely outcome that our even-night SK killed off a town. Given the basic math we would've came into today 2-2 with the SKs and game would've been over barring some really funky strategy. The less likely would've been the SK picking off the other SK, giving us a 1-3 town and an opportunity to have 2 days to figure out the odd one out. What I didn't expect at all? That the lack of activity would bless the town with a shy even-night and another day to get one of our scum knocked out. Hiding this information is no longer beneficial. We should take advantage of having the ability to accurately identify all neighbor pairs while we have the chance.

I am in fact

III

Unfortunately to iSoc's point the activity in this game is pretty sluggish. I doubt we'll hit a lynch decision again and the sad reality here is this is only going to hurt the town. My final thoughts for today are this. Whoever Zacch's neighbor was should be identified and is likely one of our two SKs. For a while I thought the second was iSocialism, but with the past day I no longer feel that's the case. I am now inclined to think that he and I are actually the townie pair. As far as individuals, I'm most suspicious of NE. Prior to the end of Day 1 he both flipped his vote very quickly, tried to use the fact he set up hammer 3 days prior to deadline as a reason for not being scum, and today contributed little more than yet another hammer setup and a single quote agreeing with vague points from myself and Imran. Quite frankly, given the fact he could have hammered and chose not to I'm not very suspicious of captain. He's seemed most consistently town and stuck to his points fairly consistently (for the little activity we've had.) Bearing the above in mind, and how the votes currently stand, I think there's really only one choice left for today. Vote: Imran Ehsan

While that's fair consider this from my perspective. If he's an SK, what did he just gain by openly stating his neighbor? It come across as defensive yes, but from my perspective my neighbor just did a very townie thing by revealing that. I know we discussed it being a poor idea on Day 1, but given this we should be made aware of the other neighbor group. And if iSoc and I are in fact the town pair then Zacch's now-solo neighbor is one of our SKs.

I woke up to this curveball that I did not expect from iSoc... I've been fairly confident this entire time that he's been a quiet scum trying to stay hidden in the shadows. Being that he is my neighbor only heightened this suspicion. Now, I'm no longer sure. Simply put if iSoc weren't a townie there'd be little reason for him to ouster our connection unless he and I are actually the townie neighbors and he was intending to help the town by revealing his neighbor and (to him) a potential SK. I want to hear from others on this but this does change the dynamic of today for now... A good point is brought up though the activity note. We're again a day from deadline and need to reach a majority. We really cannot afford another no-lynch and risk dragging the town down to a potential 2-2. Yes, the SK could hit the other SK by chance, but we really shouldn't risk that. Unvote EDIT: If my above note is correct and iSoc and myself are in fact the townie neighbors, by reason the lynch should be whoever Zacch's neighbor was.

In defense of the dead he had only put that vote on me in reaction to my initial D1 vote on you. I wouldn't have assumed that was vote switching, though the vote being 1 hour late of deadline definitely hurt us. With that in mind, Zacch's death presents an interesting conundrum. I've been running the whole neighbor concept through my head trying to think how an SK would react to it. In other words, would they be more inclined to keep their neighbor alive to try and have a biased ally, or kill them off to prevent the mistake of a possible slip during potential 1-on-1 conversation at night? Vote: iSocialism You aren't escaping today without a word.

XXXVIII

Who are you?

Winner winner Sunday ate your dinner!

XXXV

Tried to

XXXII